Iraq

Timeline

1. Bush 43 WMD Argument

Assumption: Iraq has WMD October 2002 NIE Pro and Con

2. Spreading Democracy
Falling Dominoes and Democracy Map from Freedom House (2006)

3. Unfinished Business
1998 Iraq Liberation Act 1990/91 Gulf War When was the first Bush 43 meeting on overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda

Relationship? Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Communitys Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370) Levin Report, October 2004 Pentagon Report, August 2007

2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case

VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02) Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02 National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: mushroom cloud comment Secretary of State Colin Powells United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

US is Committed: Debates
Questions About the War: Should we invade? What to expect if we do invade? Troop Levels needed?

Questions About After the War

Building Democracy: Internal Issues
Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII Or Bosnia

Questions About After the War

Regional Dynamics Iran Syria Al-Qaeda in Iraq

March 19, 2003: US Invasion

April 9, 2003

May 1, 2003

But Mission Complicated

Insurgency Ex-Baath and ex-military Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004 Kurdish Independence? Shiite militias (Iran?)
Moqtada al-Sadr

Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007

(Washington Post)

Political Developments?
Honest Attempts to Build Government Ethnic parties Religious parties Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shiite Arab Shiite vs. Shiite Sunni vs. Sunni OIL

Positive Political Developments

7/03 Interim Governing Council 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes over 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution Council of Representatives 4/06 New government chosen by Council of Representatives

Public Opinion of US Around the World

Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas, 6/13/06: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252

Al-Qaeda after Invasion

AQ in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (killed June 2006)

AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)

US public opinion turns against the war

Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-inpublic-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007

Bush 43 Approval Ratings

Questions
How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD? How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath? Were there: what do we do?
The Bush surge Iraq Study Group Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans

Good News?
Awakening Councils (summer 2006) US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 324/MCWP 3-33.5) General David Petraeus

The Result of Strategy Shift

From Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 DoD Report to Congress, p. 18

Obama Policy
2/27/09 Speech Refocus on Afghanistan

The Bigger Battle?

Pakistan Northwest Frontier Province Federally Administered Tribal Areas