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Business Valuation

(Penilaian Perusahaan)
A philosophical basis for Valuation
Many investors believe that the pursuit of 'true value'
based upon financial fundamentals is a fruitless (kurang
bermakna) one in markets where prices often seem to
have little to do with value.
There have always been investors in financial markets
who have argued that market prices are determined by
the perceptions (and misperceptions) of buyers and
sellers, and not by anything as prosaic as (sebagaimana
biasanya) cashflows or earnings.
Perceptions matter, but they cannot be all the matter.
Asset prices cannot be justified by merely using the
bigger fool/trick theory.
Valuation
Pengertian:
proses penilaian/konversi atas suatu peramalan
atau forecasting ke dalam suatu perkiraan nilai
perusahaan atau nilai atas beberapa komponen
dalam perusahaan tersebut, seperti hutang, dan
ekuitas
Pengertian lain dari valuasi ini adalah penentuan
harga yang wajar atas suatu perusahaan (Vf =
Dm + Em)
Valuation
Untuk melakukan valuasi terhadap perusahaan
perlu dilakukan analisis terhadap perkiraan
perolehan cash flow perusahaan untuk masa
datang dan selanjutnya dilakukan perhitungan
komponen hutang dan ekuitas atau harga
saham berdasarkan proyeksi bisnis dan
keuangan
Dalam proyeksi ini faktor yang perlu
dipertimbangkan adalah faktor pertumbuhan,
baik pertumbuhan dari dalam (internal growth)
maupun pertumbuhan dari luar (external growth)
akibat dilakukan merger atau atu akuisisi

Principles of Valuation
Book Value
Depreciated value of assets minus outstanding
liabilities
Liquidation Value
Amount that would be raised if all assets were sold
independently
Market Value (P)
Value according to market price of outstanding stock
Intrinsic Value (V)
NPV of future cash flows (discounted at investors
required rate of return)
Tahap2 Valuation
Tahap2 analisis yang dilakukan pada valuasi ini meliputi:
1. Analisis atas laporan keuangan untuk menilai kinerja
historis perusahaan serta melakukan normalisasi atas
laporan keuangan tersebut, biasanya selama 5 tahun
terakhir. Comparability Adjustments dengan
perusahaan sejenis; Non-operating Adjustments (untuk
asset non operasional), etc
2. Melakukan analisis atas strategi perusahaan dan
analisis lingkungan industrinya, serta menetapkan
berbagai skenario
3. Berdasarkan analisis strategi dan analisis lingkungan
industri di atas di buat perkiraan atas laba-rugi
(pendapatan dan biaya operasional) serta rencana
investasi dan rencana penambahan modal kerja
4. Melakukan penilaian terhadap harga perusahaan atau
harga saham dengan menggunakan beberapa model
Metode Valuasi
Beberapa metode yang dapat digunakan dalam
melakukan penilaian perusahaan atau harga
sahamnya adalah
1. Discounted Cash Flow Method
2. Book Value of Equity Method (Assets Based
Approach)
3. Dividend Method
4. Price Earning Ratio Method
5. Economic Value Added (EVA)and Market Value
Added (MVA) Method
Metode Valuasi
Dalam valuasi ini metode yang banyak
digunakan adalah metode Discounted Cash
Flow (DCF) karena sesuai dengan prinsip dalam
Time Value of Money dimana uang yang
diterima sekarang lebih tinggi nilainya dari pada
diterima pada masa datang
Untuk mengetahui nilai perusahaan yang layak
pada pendekatan atau model DCF diperlukan
estimasi terhadap (1) increamental cash flow,
(2) cost of capital (WACC)
Metode Valuasi
Metode yang umum digunakan untuk memprediksi
annual cash flow adalah dengan melakukan estimasi
periode per periode sampai manajemen tidak terlalu
yakin untuk melakukan estimasi lebih jauh.
Hal ini sangat tergantung kepada
(1) keadaan industri, apakah stabil atau bergejolak,
(2) Kebijakan manajemen atau kemampuan manajemen
dalam memproyeksikan masa datang
Biasanya masa untuk periode per periode ini berkisar
antara 5 sampai denga 10 tahun

Valuasi dengan Metode DCF
Tahapan melakukan penilaian dengan
menggunakan metode ini adalah:
1. Buat proyeksi rugi-laba dan cash flow dengan
berbagai skenario pertumbuhan dan
profitabilitas
2. Perkirakan tingkat keuntungan yang
disyaratkan (required rate of return) yang
diinginkan dalam penilaian tersebut
3. Hitung harga maksimal atau harga yang wajar
pada beberapa skenario dan tingkat
pengembalian atau return
Valuasi dengan Metode DCF
Jika perusahaan ingin melakukan akuisisi atas
perusahannyang divaluasi ini, maka langkah
selanjutnya adalah:
4. Hitung tingkat keuntungan atau return yang
disyaratkan oleh perusahaan yang mengakuisisi
pada masing-masing harga pembelian dan
skenarionya
5. Analisis ketersediaan dana dari perusahaan
yang mengakuisisi (bidding firm)
6. Analisis kelayakan akuisisi dan struktur modal
bidding firm
The DCF method uses a nine step
process to value a business enterprise:

Forecast Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Estimate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Use WACC to discount FCF
Estimate terminal value (as known as residue value)
Use WACC to discount terminal value
Estimate total present value of FCF
Add value of non-operating assets
Subtract value of liabilities assumed
Calculate value of common stock

Valuasi dengan Metode DCF
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
CF = EBIT (1-tr) + Depresiasi CAPEX (Capital
Expenditure) Penambahan Modal Kerja
Estimasi Required of Return
WACC = kd (1-tr) D/V + ke E/V + kps PS/V
V = D + E + PS
ke = Rf + (Rm Rf)jm
kps = Dps/PSn
Tahapan dalam melakukan
penilaian dengan DCF
1. Buat proyeksi CF dengan berbagai skenario
pertumbuhan & profitabilitas
2. Perkirakan required rate of return yg diinginkan waktu
penilaian tersebut
3. Hitung harga max yang dapat dibayar pada beberapa
skenario dan tingkat pengembalian.
4. Hitung tingkat return yg akan diperoleh perusahaan
kalau kita melakukan akuisisi pada masing2 harga
pembelian dan skenario
5. Analisis ketersediaan dana dari Bidding Firm
6. Analisis kelayakan akuisisi & struktur modal
perusahaan
Model Perhitungan Shareholder Value
Historical
Financial Result
Adjustments for Non
Recurring Item
Prospect for the
Future
Cash Flow
Adjustments
Projected Sales and
Operating Profit
Year 1
Cash Flow From
Operations
Year
Cash Flow From
Operations
Year n
Cash Flow From
Operations
Year n
And Beyond
Cash Flow From
Operations
Present Value
Cash Flow From
Operations
Present Value of
Terminal Value
+
Cash &
Marketable
Securities
+
Market Value Of
Debt
-
Shareholder
Value
=
1 Year
Year
n year
n year +

1.

2. Estimasi Required RR :
WC Capex Depr Tr EBIT CF A + = ) 1 (
PS E D V + + =
| ) (
f m
k k kf Ke + =
PSn
DPS
k
ps
=
V
PS
k
V
E
ke
V
D
tr Kd WACC
ps
+ + = ) 1 (
Short Cut Method:
2 / ) /(
)
( Pn P
n
Pn P
B Kd +
(


+ =
Accurate Method
=
+
=
k
t
n
kd
b Pn
1
) 1 (
1

=
+
+
+
=
k
t
n t
t
DCF
WACC
TV
WAACC
CF
PV
1
) 1 ( ) 1 (
TV = Terminal Value, CF, g = Pertumbuhan CF Secara
Konstan
V
PS
k
V
E
ke
V
D
tr Kd WACC
ps
+ + = ) 1 (

Selanjutnya dihitung harga saham dengan
menggunakan perumusan sbb:

Nilai Equity =

DCF
PV
total pinjaman
Harga Saham =
mberedar Jumlahsaha
y NilaiEquit
Simple Balance Sheet
Year 1 Year2 Year 3 Year 4
Current assets
Receivable 400 450 400 400
Inventory 100 130 150 150
Total 500 580 550 550
Current liabilities
Payables 200 250 200 250
Total 200 250 200 250
Working Capital
(CA-CL)
300 330 350 300
in Working Capital - 30 20 -50
A

Perubahan dalam modal kerja =
Change in inventory+increase in receibavles-increase in
payables
Let us apply this formula to detrmine the change in NWC
between Year 2 and Year 3
Change in NWC = (Year 3 inventory year 2 inventory)+(Year 3
receivable Year 2 Receivable) (Year 3
Payable Year 2 Payable)
= (150-130)+(400-450)-(200-250)
= 20+(-50)-(-50)
= -30+50
= 20

Income Statement

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3
Revenue 3.000 3.500 4.000
Less: COGS (1.950) (2.275) (2.600)
Gross profit 1.050 1.225 1.400
Less: Administrative expense (150) (175) (200)
Less: Sales expence (180) (210) (240)
EBITDA 720 840 960
Less : Depreciation&Amort (165) (170) (175)
EBIT 555 670 785
Less: Interest expence (net) (110) (120) (125)
EBT (pre-tax profit) 445 550 660
Less:Tax (125) (154) (185)
Net profit 320 396 475
Balance sheet

Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3
Asset
Cash
Receivables
Inventory

135
525
750

160
600
800

210
725
850

230
850
1.000
Property,plant,equipment 1.040 1.350 1.500 1.720
Total asset 2.450 2.910 3.285 3.800
Liabilities
Payables
400 425 428 438
Accrued expenses 450 485 455 451
Debts 650 730 736 770
Total liabilities 1.500 1.640 1.619 1.659
Shareholders equity
Share capital
500 500 500 500
Retained earnings brought forward 200 450 770 1166
Current year net income 250 320 396 475
Shareholders equity 950 1270 1666 2141
Total liabilities and shareholders 2.450 2.910 3.285 3.800
Capital Expenditures
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Ending book value 1.350 1.500 1.720
Less: Beginning book value 1.040 1.350 1.500
Add: Depreciation 165 170 175
Capital expenditure 475 320 395
Perhitungan perubahan NWC
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Non-cash current assets Receivables 525 600 725 850
Inventory 750 800 850 1.000
Total current assets 1.275 1.400 1.575 1.850
Current Liabilities (Account
Payables)
400 425 428 438
Accrued Expenses 450 485 455 451
Total Current Liabilities 850 910 883 889
Net working capital 425 490 692 961
Change in working capital 65 202 269
After tax net interest payment x (1-tax rate)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Net interest
payment
110 120 125
1-tax rate 0.72 0.72 0.72
After tax net
interest payment
79.2 86.4 90.0
Tax rate = 28%
Assemble all the information to calculate the
FCF of XYZ
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Net Profit
Add: Depreciation
320
165
396
170
475
175
485 566 650
Less:Change in working capital 65 202 269
Operating cash flow 420 364 381
Less: Capital expenditure 475 320 395
Add: After tax net interest
payment
79.2 86.4 90
Free Cash Flow 24.2 130.4 76
FCFE for XYZ and Borrowing
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
FCF
Less: after tax interest expense
Less: principal repayments
24.2
(79.2)
-
130.4
(86.4)
-
76
(90)
-
FCF before dividend (55) 44 (14)
Less:dividens - - -
FCF before new borrowings (55) 44 (14)
Add: new borrowings 80 6 34
FCFE 25 50 20
How to Get the Best Price When
Selling a Business
Selling a business is the most popular exit strategy
for business owners. In some cases, there are no
successors who want to continue the business; in
others, it was always the business owner's plan to
convert the business into liquid assets at a certain
point. Whatever the reason you want to sell yours,
following these tips for selling a business will help
ensure that you get the best price and that your
business sells.

How to Get the Best Price When
Selling a Business
1) Sell at the right time for the right reasons.
The most common reason for selling a business is that a business
owner falls ill or gets too old to continue to run it - the worst time to
be selling a business. For one thing, it's going to be extremely
difficult for you to deal with the additional stress of selling a business
in those circumstances; for another, the buyer will use your
circumstances as leverage against you.
So don't wait until then. The right time is when you're still hale and
hearty and have a successful business to sell.
And what are the right reasons? Selling a business is very like
selling a house in some respects. When you're selling a house, you
don't say that you want to sell because the house is too small. You
say that you want to move to be closer to work, for instance. When
selling a business, you want to sell because you want to pursue a
different opportunity or because you're seeking a different lifestyle
(such as retirement).
How to Get the Best Price (contd)
2) Be clear about what you're selling.
Before selling a business, you need to consider what all
the assets of a business are and decide what you are
selling. Determine what physical assets you are selling
and what other assets you have to sell. Selling a
business often includes assets such as good will,
trademarks or client lists as well as physical assets. The
value of these will depend on their quality.
If your business is incorporated, you also need to decide
if you are going to sell your business as an asset sale
(where you sell everything in the corporation but not the
incorporated company itself) or a share sale (where you
sell everything including your incorporated company).
How to Get the Best Price (contd)
3) Determine what your business is actually
worth.
Facetiously but truthfully, your business is worth as much as it will
fetch in the marketplace. But determining just what that price is the
trick. There are several different business valuation methods ranging
from asset-based to future earnings approaches. Of course, no one
approach can be used in isolation; the current market, economic
trends and what other similar businesses have sold for also need to
be taken into account.
If I was only going to give one piece of advice about selling a
business, it would be to have a professional business valuation
done. While legally anyone can do a business valuation, a business
valuation done by a professional will be regarded more favorably by
potential buyers and may save you legal hassles later on.
"...a number of court cases have recognized the distinction between
evidence provided by a qualified business valuator and that
provided by someone without the same degree of competence and
education" ("How Much Is Your Business Worth?", Grant Thornton
LLP).
How to Get the Best Price (contd)
4) Make sure your house is in order.
When you're selling your business, you need to be
especially careful not to let things slide. In fact, this is the
time that making the extra effort to keep things in tip-top
shape can really pay off. Think again of selling a house;
like a house that's up for sale, you want your business to
show well.
So whether you have any interest left in running the
business, you need to make sure that you are keeping
the business's records up to date, the inventory up and
the premises maintained. People want to buy thriving
businesses, not neglected ones.
How to Get the Best Price (contd)
5) Get professional help when selling a business.
Selling a business is an even more complex transaction than selling
a house - and arguably, one that has even more emotional impact.
Besides providing necessary expertise to guide you through the
selling process, hiring professional help can help you maintain the
emotional distance and objectivity you need to successfully sell your
business.
Which professionals should you hire?
As already mentioned, a professional valuator can determine what
your business is worth. His or her valuation will be much more
credible to a potential buyer than yours.
A commercial realtor or business broker can be a real boon in terms
of finding and dealing with prospective buyers of your business and
helping you navigate the sales process.
A lawyer can draw up and/or review the documents necessary to
sell your business, such as the document that summarizes your
business for prospective buyers and the purchase and sales
agreement.