MODEL INFORMATIZAT DE GESTIONARE A RISCULUI N AFACERI

COURSE 10 APLICATION 1.
COMPUTERIZED MODEL OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS

CONTENTS OF THE COURSE 1.Argument regarding the necessity of a model 2.Functional diagram of the risk management system in the company of the future 3. Structures of the activities of response to risk 4. Conclusions
AutorI: prof. univ. dr. Mandu Petrisor Asist.univ.drd. Cristina Liana Nicolau

1. ARGUMENT PRIVIND NECESITATEA MODELULUI

Aparitia situatiilor de risc si constientizarea lor de catre manager reprezinta grave amenintari la adresa organizatiei si obiectivelor sale. Prin urmare, in conditii de stres, managerul trebuie sa aiba la dispozitie, sa analizeze, sa selecteze si sa interpreteze o multime de informatii inainte de a lua o decizie prin care sa evite un dezastru. In aceste conditii un model informatizat de gestionare a riscului este solutia cea mai adecvata pentru a-si eficientiza posibilitatile de actiune prin cresterea rapiditatii si preciziei in interventie. Modelul ofera suficienta incredere si creeaza o stare psihica favorabila necesara gestionarii riscurilor. In conformitate cu modelul prezentat, managerul de risc prelucreaza informatiile cu ajutorul unor metode operationale (matematice) fapt ce favorizeaza obtinerea unor solutii optime in timpul cel mai scurt, pe baza unor anticipatii estimate printr-un model rational. The occurrence of risk situation and the managers awareness of it are serious threats for the organization and its objectives. Consequently, the manager has to have available, analyze, select and interpret many pieces of information, under stress, before making a decision for avoiding a disaster. Under these circumstances, a computerized model of risk management is the most adequate solution to make the intervention possibilities effective through a quicker and more accurate intervention. The model offers enough confidence and a favorable psychological state for managing risk. In accordance with this model, the risk manager processes the information by means of some operational (mathematical) methods and that favors reaching optimum solutions in the shortest delay, based on some estimated anticipations through a rational model.

2. PREZENTAREA SCHEMEI FUNCTIONALE A MODELULUI INFORMATIZAT DE GESTIONARE A RISCULUI IN AFACERI

DOMENIUL: STRUCTURI I EVENIMENTE - D.S.E.

COMPARTIMENT INFORMATIC PASIV - C.I.P. Baza de date n timp real Baza de imagini n timp real

COMPARTIMENT INFORMATIC ACTIV C.I.A. COMPARTIMENT DE SIMULARE (SPRIJIN) C.S.

INIIEREA TIPULUI DE RISCURI DISCRIMINATOR DE SCENARII

BAZA DE DATE: definete starea de pericol alarmeaz sistemul iniiaz procedura de gestionare a riscului

BLOC ANALOGIC DE MASURARE I EVALUARE A RISCULUI DE SISTEM

DESCRIEREA MODULUI DE PROPAGARE N SISTEM

GENERATOR DE STRATEGIE

GENERATOR DE DECIZIE G.D.

GESTIONARUL SITUAIEI DE RISC G.S.R.

DISPECERAT LOGISTIC DEFINIREA I EVALUA-REA CONSECINELOR

GENERATOR DE RESURSE PROPRII I DIN COOPERARE

CE INTERFA

BLOCUL DE IMPLEMENTARE A DECIZIEI B.I.D.

COMUNICAREA DECIZIEI APLICAREA DECIZIEI
EVALUAREA PERMANENTA A REZULTATELOR

SISTEMUL CONDUS (FIRM AFACERE) S.C.

3. THE FUNCTIONAL SCHEME OF THE COMPUTERIZED MODEL OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS

DOMAIN: STRUCTURES AND EVENTS D.S.E.

PASSIVE INFORMATICS DEPARTMENT - P.I.D. Database in real time Imagebase in real time

ACTIV INFORMATICS DEPARMENT A.I.D.

DATABASE:
defines the danger state alarms the system initiates the procedure of risk management

SIMULATION (SUPPORT) DEPARTMENT S.D.

INITIATION OF THE RISK TIPE

SCENARIOS DISCRIMINATOR

ANALOGIC UNIT FOR MEASURING AND EVALUATING THE SYSTEM RISK

DESCRIBING THE WAY OF DISSEMINATION IN THE SYSTEM

STRATEGY GENERATOR

DECISION GENERATOR / MAKER (D.G.)

THE MANAGER OF THE RISK SITUATION M.R.S.

LOGISTICS DISPATCH
DEFINING AND ASSESSING THE CONSEQUENCES

GENERATOR OF OWN RESOURCES AND COOPERATION

WHAT INTERFACE

THE DECISION IMPLEMENTATION UNIT D.I.U.

COMUNICATION OF DECISION IMPLEMENTATION OF THE DECISION CONTINUOUS EVALUATION OF RESULTS

THE MANAGED SYSTEM (COMPANY-BUSINESS) M.S.

4. FUNCTIONAREA MODELULUI INFORMATIZAT DE GESTIONARE A RISCULUI

1. Managerul situatiei de risc sesizeaza situatia de pericol si initiaza

sistemul informatizat:
- pe baza informatiilor furnizate de sistemul pasiv (date si imagini) este definita starea de pericol ca urmare actiunii factorilor de risc; - G.S.R. (gestionarul situatiei de risc) alarmeaza intregul sistem; - se transmite discriminatorului de scenarii codul de initiere a procesului de gestionare a riscului; 2. Compartimentul de simulare (sprijin) furnizeaza datele de baza

ale situatiei de risc:

- identifica tipologia riscurilor si le defineste caracteristicile esentiale; - previzioneaza modul cel mai probabil de propagare in sistem; - defineste, evalueaza consecintele situatiei de risc. 3. Compartimentul informatic activ elaboreaza strategia de actiune a

sistemului ca reactie la actiunea factorilor de risc:

- pe baza datelor initiale furnizate de compartimentul de simulare, discriminatorul de scenarii alege scenariul cel mai probabil care sintetizeaza actiunea integratoare a factorilor de risc; - blocul de masurare si evaluare a riscului de sistem, pe baza unui model matematic determina riscul si evalueaza consecintele; - generatorul de strategie elaboreaza strategia de raspuns la actiunea factorilor de risc avnd sprijinul dispeceratului logistic si al altor colaboratori interni si externi. 4. Generatorul de decizie, analizeaza strategia respectiva si o pune

in aplicare prin procesul decizional:

- se formuleaza continutul deciziei; - se comunica blocului de implementare; - se aplica masurile special elaborate pentru a se contracara actiunea factorilor de risc la fiecare compartiment si in ansamblul sistemului; - se evalueaza permanent rezultatele constatndu-se indepartarea sau anihilarea starii de pericol.

4. HOW THE COMPUTERIZED MODEL FOR RISK MANAGEMENT FUNCTIONS 1. The manager of the risk situation perceives the danger situation and initiates the computerized system:
- the danger situation resulted from the action of the risk factors is defined, based on the information provided by the passive system (data and images); - M.R.S. (the manager of the risk situation) alarms the whole system; the discriminator of scenarios is transmitted the code of starting a the risk management process

2. The simulation (support) unit provides the basic data of the risk situation:
- identifies the typology of risks and defines the essential characteristic features - foresees the most probable way of dissemination in the system - defines, assesses the consequences of the risk situation.

3. The active IT department draws up the action strategy of the system as a response to the action of the risk factors:
- based on the initial data provided by the simulation department, the scenario discriminator chooses the most probable scenario which summarizes the integrating action of the risk factors; - based on a mathematic model, the unit for measuring and evaluating the system risk, measures and evaluates the consequences; - the strategy generator draws up the strategy for responding to the action of the risk factors, with the support of the logistic department and other internal and external co-workers.

4. The decision maker analyses the strategy provided and implements it through the decisional process:
- the decision content is formulated; - it is communicated to the implementation department; - special measures are implemented for counteracting the action of the risk factors in each department and in the system as a whole; - results are continuously evaluated, finding the whether the danger state is removed or eliminated.

5. CONCLUZII
Eficientizarea modelului informatizat depinde direct de: informatiile culese de la stimulatorii externi si stocate in baza de date; competentele specialistilor care elaboreaza schemele logice ale diferitelor tipuri de scenarii si modelelor matematice corespunzatoare; viabilitatea strategiilor construite pentru prevenirea, diminuarea sau anihilarea actiunii factorilor de risc; Folosirea modelelor informatizate de gestionare a riscului in afaceri se prezinta astazi ca si in viitor, drept solutia cea mai adecvata pentru invingerea stresului si asumarea de catre manageri a riscului; Gestionarea riscului cu ajutorul unor instrumente specializate va reprezenta un suport de baza pentru sustinerea deciziei manageriale in raport de evolutia evenimentelor interne si externe in spatiul de conflict economic si informational. optimization of the computerized model depends directly on: information collected from the external stimuli in the database; expertise of professionals who draw up the logical frames of various types of adequate scenarios and mathematic models; the viability of the strategies drawn up for preventing, diminishing or annihilating the action of the risk factors; using the computerized models of risk management in business is, nowadays and in the future, the most adequate solution for defeating stress and risk taking by the managers; risk management with the help of some specialized tools will represent an important support for sustaining the managerial decision in relation with the evolution of internal and external events in the economic and information conflict area.