Design Period & Population Forecast

Design Period
The complete water supply project includes huge and costly constructions such as dams, reservoirs, treatment works and network of distribution pipelines. These all works cannot be replaced easily or capacities increased conveniently for future expansions. While designing and constructing these works, they should have sufficient capacity to meet future demand of the town for number of years.
The number of years for which the designs of the water works have been done is known as design period.

Mostly water works are designed for design period of 22-30 years, which is fairly good period.

Population Forecasting Methods

The important methods of population forecasts 0r population projections

1.Arithmetic Increase Method 2.Geometric Increase Method

3.Incremental Increase Method

4.Decreasing Rate of Growth Method 5.Simple Graphical Method 6.Comparative Graphical Method 7.Ratio Method

8.Logistic Curve Method

Problem:01
The following data have been noted from the census department.
YEAR 1940 1950 1960 1970 POPULATION 8000 12000 17000 22500

Find the probable population in the year 1980, 1990 and 2000.

ARITHEMATICAL INCREASE METHOD

This method is based on the assumption that the population is increasing at a constant rate. The rate of change of population with time is constant. The population after n decades can be determined by the formula.

Pn = P + n.c
Where Pn- probable population P population at present n No. of decades c Constant determined by the average of increase of n decades

This method should be used for forecasting population of those large cities, which have reached their saturation population

(Avg increase in n decades )

C=4833

Solution:
W.K T Pn = P + n.c

GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD

This method is based on the assumption that the percentage increase in population from decade to decade remains constant. In this method the average percentage of growth of last few decades is determined, the population forecasting is done on the basis that percentage increase per decade will be the same.

The population at the end of n decades is calculated by

Ig = percentage increase in population

SOLUTION

C=4833 IG=41.37%

W.K.T

Pn=P[1+IG/100]
IG=41.37

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

This method is improvement over the above two methods. The average increase in the population is determined by the arithmetical method and to this is added the average of the net incremental increase once for each future decade.

Pn= P+ (C+I) n
I-incremental increase

Solution:

Incremental increase is=1250

The population at the end of the various decades shall be as follows:

Assignment-1
Submission Date;08/08/2013

The following data shows the variation in population of a town from 1922 to 1972. estimate the population of the city in the year 2002 use various methods
YEAR 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972

POPULATION 72,000

85,000 1,10,500

1,44,000

1,84,000

2,21,000