CLIMATE CHANGE THE BASICS

CT. Lakshmanan B.Arch., M.C.P.

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Most people have heard about climate change, they might even express a real concern about it, but how many would actually consider it a threat? Because the changes can be slow and sometimes difficult to identify within the normal variation of climatic conditions, many of us think they will not affect our lives.

However, some parts of the world are already being severely affected by climatic change both the people and the environment. And unfortunately, it appears that many developing countries bear the brunt of global warming, when the problem is mostly due to the actions of developed countries.

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What are climate change and global warming, and how are they related?

Global warming refers to an increase in average global temperatures, which in turn causes climate change. Climate change refers to changes in seasonal temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity for a given area. Climate change can involve cooling or warming. Our atmosphere is made up of gases, such as nitrogen, oxygen, and CO2, and water vapor, which act like a blanket draped around the planet. Some of these gases such as CO2, water vapor, and methaneabsorb heat, reducing the amount that escapes to space, and increasing global temperatures. This is what is called the greenhouse effect, and these gases are often referred to as greenhouse gases.
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What do most scientists agree upon?

As in any scientific debate, there are uncertainties, but most scientists agree on the following:

The average temperature of the Earth has been increasing more than natural climatic cycles would explain. This episode of global warming is due to human activity. It began with the industrial revolution, two centuries ago, and accelerated over the last 50 years.

Fossil fuel burning is mostly responsible, because it releases gases (particularly carbon dioxide) that trap infrared radiation. This greenhouse effect creates a whole system disturbance, that we call climate change
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The enhanced greenhouse effect

Greenhouse gases are a natural part of the atmosphere. Without these gases the global average temperature would be around -20C. The problem we now face is that human actions particularly burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) and land clearing are increasing their concentrations. The more of these gases there are, the more heat is trapped. This is known as the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Greenhouse gases that are not naturally occurring include hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), which are generated in a variety of industrial processes. On average, about one-third of the solar radiation that hits the Earth is reflected back into space. The land and the oceans mostly absorb the rest, with the remainder trapped in the atmosphere. The solar radiation that strikes the Earths surface heats it up, and as a result infrared radiation is emitted.
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Will climate change actually bring benefits to some areas?

As a result of global warming and climate change, some regions such as Siberiawill likely become warmer and more habitable. The growing seasons in some regions will lengthen, as spring arrives earlier and winter frosts set in later. Developing countries will likely be hit hardest as warming continues because they have fewer resources with which to address and adapt to the impacts of climate change. But residents of the United States and other industrial countries will also experience negative consequences, such as increased coastal flooding and more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, storms, and wildfires as well as the associated economic and health costs.

Most scientists believe that, at least on a global basis, the costs of climate change will far outweigh any benefits that it might bring to a given region.
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What are some of the impacts we can expect from climate change?

The impacts of climate change will vary from place to place, but we can expect more severe and frequent storms (such as hurricanes and ice storms), heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires. Warmer temperatures will increase the range of diseasebearing mosquitoes, while also increasing the range and numbers of insects and other agricultural pests, such as weeds. Melting glaciers and expanding sea water (water expands as it warms) will further raise sea level, inundating low-lying islands and flooding coastal areas, while warmer ocean temperatures will kill many if not most of the worlds coral reefs.
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Which countries contribute the most to global warming?

Wealthier industrial countries contribute the most to global warming since they use most of the worlds fossil fuels. Europe, Japan, and North Americawith roughly 15 percent of the worlds current populationare estimated to account for two-thirds of the carbon dioxide now in the atmosphere. With less than five percent of world population, the United States is the single-largest source of carbon from fossil fuelsemitting 24 percent of the worlds total. U.S. automobiles (more than 128 million, or one quarter of the worlds cars) emit roughly as much carbon as the entire Japanese economy, the worlds fourth-largest carbon emitter in 2000.

China, despite being home to one-fifth of the worlds population and its heavy dependence on coal, ranks a distant second behind the U.S., emitting 12 percent of the global total. The average person in China produces less than one-eighth as much carbon dioxide as the average American.
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How bad is the problem?

Since pre-industrial times (about 1750), the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased by 31 percent.

Over the same period, atmospheric methaneanother heat-trapping gashas risen by 151 percent, mostly from agricultural activities like growing rice and raising cattle.
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This heat-trapping blanket has warmed the Earth 1F during the past century. This trend is rapidly increasing, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international body of the worlds leading climate experts. The IPCC concluded that average temperatures will likely increase 2.5 to 10.4F by 2100 if heat-trapping emissions are not significantly reduced. But we dont have to look into the distant future for climate change. The year 1998 was the warmest year, of the warmest decade, of the last 1,000 years. Global warming is here now, and its going to get worse if we do nothing.

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Warmer temperatures are only part of the problem. Another highly likely consequence of global warming is rising sea level. As the temperature of water increases, it expands. Scientists predict sea level will rise 1 to nearly 3 feet over the next 100 years, putting low-lying areas and millions of people at risk. Coastal areas will be increasingly vulnerable to hurricanes and floods.
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Other impacts of global warming will likely include

More extreme weather, including increasingly intense rainfall and drought

Disruption and degradation of critical habitats for many plants and animals, with an increase in the rate of extinctions
More coastal erosion, flooding during storms, and permanent submersion of low-lying coastal areas and islands

Heat waves and poor air quality, resulting in a greater risk of heat-related illness and death for vulnerable people like the elderly, the poor, and people with respiratory disease
Additional threats to human healthand additional health care costsas mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects and rodents spread diseases over larger geographical regions Disruption of agriculture in some parts of the world due to increased temperature, water shortages, and sea-level rise in low-lying agricultural areas

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What is thermohaline circulation?

The worlds oceans transport massive amounts of heat. Differences in seawater density, which depend on differences in temperature (thermo) and salinity (haline), drive global ocean currents known as the thermohaline circulation The Atlantic thermohaline circulation acts like an oceanic conveyer belt, carrying heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic. As warm water moves into the northern Atlantic, it cools, sinks to the ocean floor, and then returns southward. There are concerns that climate change may slow or even halt the thermohaline circulation. This could occur through changing salinity of the oceans due to greater rainfall and influxes of fresh water from melting ice. Surface ocean waters are becoming less salty in some places, and a key current in the North Atlantic appears to have slowed. The thermohaline circulation has changed abruptly in the distant past; disruption of the thermohaline circulation could lead to rapid changes in the Earths climate.
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What is the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO)?

The El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a variation in normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Pacific Ocean trade winds propel surface water in a westerly direction along the equator. As a result warm water accumulates in the western equatorial Pacific, to the north-east of Australia, heating air in contact with it. The warm, moist air produces clouds and rain. During the El Nio phase of ENSO the Pacific trade winds and tropical currents weaken, and the warm water in the western Pacific is displaced to the central Pacific. Clouds disappear and parts of Australia may experience drought. Simultaneously, parts of Northern and Southern America experience above-average rainfall.
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we cannot reverse climate change overnight

While our primary goal must be to reduce the quantity of heat-trapping gases we release into our atmosphere, we must also take steps to limit the damage to our communities and sensitive ecosystems that will be caused by climate change in the coming decades. Each year we do nothing to slow climate change, we will risk more irreversible damage to our environment and increase the bills for ourselves, our children and our grandchildren. From healthcare to treat heat-related illness to protection of our fresh water supply during droughts and increased energy costs as we blast our air conditioners for more days each summerthese costs are real and argue for action now.

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Our planet is warming, and we are helping make it happen by adding more heat-trapping gases, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), to the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuel (oil, coal, and natural gas) alone accounts for about 75 percent of the increase in CO2. Deforestationthe cutting and burning of forests that trap carbonaccounts for about another 20 percent.

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Were treating our atmosphere like we once did our rivers. We used to dump waste thoughtlessly into our waterways, believing that they were infinite in their capacity to hold rubbish. Our atmosphere has limits too. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for about 100 years. The longer we keep polluting, the longer it will take to recover and the more irreversible damage will be done.
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Do we want to be responsible stewards of our environment and help slow global warming?
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The following five sensible steps are available today and can have an enormous impact on the problem

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We Know How to Make Better Cars and SUVs

Better transmissions and engines, more aerodynamic designs, and stronger yet lighter material for chassis and bodies can costeffectively increase the average mpg of todays automotive fleet from 24 to 40 mpg by 2012. This would be equivalent to taking 44 million cars off the roadand it would save individual drivers thousands of dollars in fuel costs over the life of a vehicle.
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Because transportation accounts for over 30 percent of US annual CO2 emissions, raising fuel economy is one of the most important things we can do to slow climate change.
The government can also help by offering tax credits to consumers who buy advanced technology vehicles like todays hybrids (a combination of gasoline and self-charging electric battery engine) and new fuel cell vehicles that will hit the market within the next decade. Honda and Toyota already have highly fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles on the market that get 61 and 52 mpg in the city, respectively.
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Modernising countrys Electricity System

Electricity is produced from outdated, coal-burning power plants that dump pollutants and heat trapping gases into our atmosphere. In fact, power plants are the single largest source of CO2 By increasing

our use of clean renewable energy, investing in energy efficiency, and reducing pollution from fossil fuel plants we can save money for consumers, reduce heat-trapping emissions, and lessen the need for new coal or gas power plants.
renewable sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass (fuel from plant matter) produce clean energy
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We Can Increase Energy Efficiency in Our Homes and Businesses

technology for more efficient motors, appliances, windows, homes, and manufacturing processes is here today. These simple solutions save consumers money and can have an enormous impact on climate change at the same time.

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We Must Protect Threatened Forests

In addition to sheltering more than half of the planets species and providing benefits such as clean drinking water, forests play a critical role in climate change: they store carbonthe main ingredient of CO2. When forests are burned, cleared, or otherwise degraded, their stored carbon is released into the atmosphere. Tropical deforestation now accounts for about 20 percent of all humancaused CO2 emissions each year.
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We Must Support Countrys Ingenuity

Vigorous support for research and development is critical to achieving practical solutions. Yet today we invest far more in subsidies for the fossil fuel and nuclear industries than on R&D for renewable energy or advanced vehicle technologies. fuel cell technology, which runs engines on hydrogen fuel and emits only water vapor, is key to moving our transportation system away from the polluting combustion engine
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The solutions outlined on the previous pages are among the highest priorities if we are to begin to reverse climate change. However, additional measures must play an important role in a long-term solution to climate change.

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Reducing Other Heat-Trapping Gases

While reducing CO2 emissions must remain our top priority, other gases contribute to climate change and should be addressed as well. Methane (CH4) can be reduced through better practices in rice farming and cattle production. In addition, methane and other heat-trapping gases can be captured during mining, landfill, and oil exploration operations. CFC and other fluorocarbon emissions can be reduced by strictly enforcing the Montreal Protocol of 1988, an international treaty that calls for eliminating pollutants that deplete the ozone in the stratosphere.
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Sustainable Farming

Soils store carbon just like trees. Sustainable farming practices can increase the carbonstoring organic matter in soil, and reduce or eliminate the use of nitrogen fertilizers that release heat trapping gases into the atmosphere when they break down. In addition, no-till farming methods, which cause less soil disturbance and erosion, can further decrease the release of CO2 and nitrous oxides (NOx).
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International Cooperation

With only about 5 percent of the population, the United States now produces 25 percent of annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels5.5 billion metric tons annually and will remain the biggest source for years to come. During the past century, the United States, together with other industrialized countries such as Japan, Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Canada, has produced more than 60 percent of the CO2 emissions that contribute to global warming.
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Kyoto Protocol

The first protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, the international treaty on climate change). It assigns legally binding commitments for industrialized countries to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions by 2012, and includes some funding mechanisms for adaptation to climate change. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 and entered into force in 2005. It is expected to be followed by a second protocol to the UNFCCC, which should be ready for ratification in 2009.
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The most credible source of knowledge on climate change, IPCC is a panel established in 1988 to assess scientific, technical and socioeconomic information. Every five or six years, it produces assessments based mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature on climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
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Mitigation

This word has different meanings for practitioners in the climate change and disaster-management communities, often leading to confusion:

Mitigation (climate change) Measures to reduce greenhouse- gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and thus ultimately the magnitude of climate change. Measures include energy conservation, using renewable energy such as wind or solar energy instead of coal, oil or gas; and planting trees that absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Mitigation (disaster management) Measures aimed at moderating or reducing the severity of disaster impact. They include such things as building retention walls, water reservoirs, and reforestation to avoid landslides. From the perspective of the climate change community, these measures would be labeled as adaptation because they help reduce the negative impacts of climate change.

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OK, Thats All

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