Lesson 16 Risk Management and Problems

PETE 689 - UBD
Lesson 16 Risk Management and Downhole Problems
Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering
Risk Management and Downhole Problems

Risk Management Risk Identification Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Mitigation Planning
Risk Management and Downhole Problems

Downhole
Problems and Troubleshooting Wellbore Instability Excessive Vibration Fluid Influxes Stuck Pipe and Fishing Corrosion
Risk Management
Introduction
A major success factor in UBD is
how effectively the designers and implementers identify risks and develop an effective plan to deal with the risks.
Risk Management
Introduction
Before
implementing the final design, the selected equipment and operating procedures should be subjected to an exacting risk analysis.
Risk Management
Stages
Risk Identification Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Mitigation Planning Risk Response
Risk Management
Risk Identification Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Mitigation Planning
Risk Identification
Source of Risk. Probability of Occurrence.
Potential Impact.
Action to Mitigate. Cost to Mitigate. Probability Mitigation Succeeds.
Source of Risk
Internal: External:
risks that the designer can control. risks that the designer cannot control.
Probability of Occurrence
Can be on a scale of: 1 to 10 or High, Medium, and Low
Potential Impact
High, Medium, or Low. May be referred to as Consequence Can be defined by dollar amounts or
other criteria, such as severity of injuries or death, or any combination of dollar amount and injury. Probability * Consequence = Risk
Action to Mitigate
Next, the decision whether to live
with the risk or if risk mitigation is in order. Mitigation involves reducing the probability of occurrence or the potential impact of a given risk.
Risks can be mitigated by:

Choose substitute equipment types.
Upgrade
specifications such as materials strength, ratings, etc. Modify the basic design. Transpose steps in the procedure. Change mud systems, completion options, etc. Include backup equipment.
Cost to Mitigate
The relative cost to mitigate must be estimated, based on rough approximations, in order to evaluate the viability of the mitigation actions.
Probability Mitigation Succeeds
Estimate the probability will succeed.
Risk Mitigation Table

Description of Risk
Hurricane strikes while drilling and requires shut down of operations
Source of Risk
Probability of occurrence
Potential Impact
Action to mitigate
Create plan for temporary shut-in of well and abandonment of offshore platform. Institute tubular testing program that includes pressure testing and magnetic scanning of microfractures
Cost to Mitigate
Probability Mitigation Succeeds
Low
Medium
Low
High
Drill string failure
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Risk Management
Risk Identification
Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Mitigation Planning
Quantitative Risk Analysis

What is Uncertainty? Risk Analysis and Decision-Making.
What is Quantitative Risk Analysis?

When should I use Quantitative
Risk Analysis? Why should I use Quantitative risk Analysis?

What is Uncertainty?
Dictionary definition:
the estimated amount or percentage by which an observed or calculated value may differ from the true value Benjamin Franklin pointed out: In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes
Risk Analysis and Decision-Making

Risk analysis and decision making are
fundamentally related. A key component of Risk Analysis is to provide support for a particular decision. In our industry, the decision that requires risk analysis is usually subject to acceptance by a team of technical professionals and approval by management.

Any technique for analyzing uncertainty and quantifying the effects of that uncertainty on factors that will significantly effect decision making.

A method of quantifying the consequences of the risks identified by intuition through a structured approach to decision making based on: what you think you know and dont know. What you can do. What you want the outcome to be.
When should I use Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Risk analysis can be used throughout an UB project to improve the quality of technical evaluations and improve risk mitigation techniques.
Why should I use Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Technical professionals overrate their ability to predict specific variables and even a simplistic approach to risk analysis will lead to superior forecasting and decision making.
Why should I use Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Probabilistic methods provide better decisions than deterministic methods because a full range of potential outcomes is examined.
Quantitative Risk Analysis

The Process
Problem Identification. Deterministic Analysis. Probabilistic Analysis. Evaluation and
Communication. Decision and Action.

Problem Identification
Identify the problem, the reason
that a solution is required, and project desires. Collect and review data. Verify accuracy of data, and ensure it is pertinent to the issue at hand.
Deterministic Analysis
Construct a model relating inputs
and possible outcomes. Perform a sensitivity analysis and present the results in graphs and tables. Identify key variables and examine them in more detail.
Probabilistic Analysis
Assign key variables a range and
probability distribution. Conduct an assessment Monte Carlo simulation.
using
Evaluation and Communication

Check if the results make sense, determine if additional information is needed, and create graphs and tables to communicate the results of the analysis.
Decision and Action
Recommend the best alternative consistent with the analysis and project desires.
HAZOP
How to do a HAZOP
Essential Elements
Procedure/System Layout. HAZOP Form. Small Group. Recorder.
Co-ordinator.
Procedure
Conventional Shut In-Drlg 1. Raise kelly/top drive until the drive bushing clears the rotary. 2. Stop pumps and check for flow. 3. Open choke line fail safe valve (with choke closed). 4. Close upper annular. (Some operators may prefer to shut-in on rams instead) 5. Check for leaks, notify supervisor, record SIDPP, SICP, Pit Gain, Time, Date. 6. Close upper pipe rams. (Depending upon the stack, could be middle rams) 7. Reduce closing pressure on upper annular, and lower drillstring until tool joint rests on closed upper pipe ram. 8. Open upper annular and restore closing pressure to normal. 9. Prepare for kill. MudLift with SAC and DSV (SS Pump on Inlet Pressure) 1. Raise kelly/top drive until the drive bushing clears the rotary. 2. Isolate SAC from wellbore. 3. Stop rig pumps (DP pressure falls to DSV opening pressure); SS pump maintains seawater hydro. If SS pump keeps running, well flow is verified. 4. Stop subsea pump. Record SS inlet pressure (excess above sea hydro is SICP.) Pump slowly on DP until pressure flattens (DSV opens). SIDP is increase above pre-recorded DSV opening pressure. 5. Close upper annular. (Some operators may prefer to shut-in on rams instead) 6. Check for leaks, notify supervisor, record SIDPP, SICP, Pit Gain, Time, Date. 7. Close upper pipe rams. (Depending upon the stack, could be middle rams) 8. Reduce closing pressure on upper annular, and lower drillstring until tool joint rests on closed upper pipe ram. 9. Open upper annular and restore closing pressure to normal. 10. Prepare for kill. Discussion: The use of the DSV will allow faster shut in and flow measurements. Closure of the DSV after mud circulation is stopped will make measurement of SIDPP more complicated. There must be a means of isolating the SAC from the wellbore pressures upon shut-in. Isolation of SAC will slightly complicate the shut-in procedure relative to conventional riser drilling.
System Layout
System Layout
HAZOP Form
Date: ______________
HAZOP
(RISK ASSESSMENT) WC-1_
MUDLIFT MODE: WC-1 Drilling with SAC and DSV with Shut-In (Base Case)
Page: of
ACTIVITY: Kick Detection, Stop Flow/Shut-In, Measurement, Drillers Method REASON: Probably preferred MODE and procedures for most participants ASSUMPTIONS: Hangoff @ SI; SS Pump on Inlet Pressure = Sea Hydro Before Kick; DSV set for Positive Opening Pressure
Hazard
Consequence (H,M,L)
Existing Safeguards
Probability (H,M,L) Avg
RISK CxP
Description Shut-In, Pit Gain, SIDP, KCP, DP Sch. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Put Participants names in shaded boxes for individual assessment of Probability. Put weighted Average in Avg column.
Small Group
Large groups unwieldy.

4 to 8 about right.
All should take active part.
Recorder
Act as Wordsmith. Good with a Laptop. LCD Projector handy.
Co-ordinator
Familiar with HAZOP process. Monitors discussion.
Keeps focus.
Dampens noise level.
Helps Recorder.
What-If for Hazards

Unobserved Event. Equipment Failure. Unworkable Procedure. Unrealized Expectation.
With a Hazard Named:

Figure Out Consequences.
Decide Probability.
Calculate Risk. Stick to Agreed Definitions.
Qualify Consequence
Consequence Effect
Fatality Or Damage $ 1-10 MM
HIGH
MEDIUM
LTI-Disability Or Damage $ 25K-1 MM
LOW
Non-LTI Injury Or Damage < $ 25K
NOTE: These are possible consequences of hazards that can develop even with existing Safeguards in Place prior to modifications resulting from the HAZOP.
Establish Probability
Probability
HIGH
Likelihood/Frequency
Very Likely Almost every time
MEDIUM
Possible Will Occur Sometimes
LOW
Unlikely Rarely Occurs
NOTE: This is the probability of a given hazard occurring even with existing Safeguards in Place prior to modifications resulting from the HAZOP.
Risk
Risk = Consequence*Probability
PROBABILITY RISK MATRIX
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
HIGH
H*L = M
H*M = M
H*H = H
CONSEQUENCE
MEDIUM
M*L = L
M*M = M
M*H = M
LOW
L*L = L
L*M = L
L*H = L
For Well Control, Risk must be at Low Level.

With Risks Assessed
Fill Out the Form. Final Entries in Risk Column. Only Low Risks Acceptable.
Now What?
Here Wrap it up!! Real World
Three more steps.

Final Steps
Mitigation
Revised Risk
Proposed Action
Perils & Pitfalls

Slow process. Both constructive & destructive. Side issues can mess it up. Probably not right the first time.
Consequence vs. Catastrophe.

Problem with Quantitative Risk Analysis

Determining the probabilities. Mis-understanding
of the inner workings of the model. Lack of reality checks. Ignoring relationships between variables. Use of subjective judgments.
Risk Management
Risk Identification
Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Mitigation Planning
Risk Mitigation Planning
Risk Mitigation Plan
Risk Response

Should
be incorporated into the individual well program for each well. Should include a brief description of the operations risks identified and analyzed in the previous phases and suggested mitigation measures that were derived. Keep is simple.

The plan should include: Emergency phone numbers. Engineering drawings and
sketches. Risk mitigation procedures.

Risk Response
Field personnel must be ready to
implement emergency responses. Inspections, audits and field visits will assist in ascertaining the ability of operations personnel to respond to a particular risk.
Downhole Problems and Troubleshooting

Wellbore Instability Excessive Vibration Fluid Influxes Stuck Pipe and Fishing
Corrosion
Wellbore Instability
Causes of Instability
Symptoms
Prevention
Solutions and Treatments
Mechanical - Most are related to mud
weight, more specifically, to mud weight reduction while attempting to get underbalanced. Abnormal pressure, tectonic stress, and unconsolidated formations are all causes of mechanical wellbore instability.
Chemical - related to reactivity
of shale and/or clay that may be present in other formations. Most causes by exposure to fresh water.
Symptoms
Most symptoms are due to rock failure
and excessive amounts of formation in the wellbore. Include: increased torque/drag. increase fill on bottom during connections/trips. increased annular pressure. excessive cuttings at the surface.
Prevention
Determine the cause.

Adequate mud density.
Proper chemical make-up of
the drilling fluid.
Solutions and Treatments

Increase circulation rate.
Keep pipe moving at all times. Use inhibitive fluids.

Excessive Vibration
Fluid Influxes Stuck Pipe and Fishing Corrosion
Excessive Vibration
Causes of Excess Vibration. Symptoms of Vibration.
Prevention
and Solution Excessive Vibration.
to
Causes of Excess Vibration

Drilling rough, highly fractured or
abrasive rocks. Hard rocks. Improper handling of percussion tools. Gas drilling does not dampen vibrations as much as liquids.
Symptoms of Vibration
Drillstring damage noticed through
inspection. High incidence of downhole tool failure.
Prevention and Solution to Excessive Vibration

Keep the drillpipe in tension. All compressive forces should be
contained in the BHA. Calculate the neutral point so that when the maximum WOB is applied, the neutral point is in the BHA.

Wellbore Instability Excessive Vibration Fluid Influxes Stuck Pipe and Fishing
Corrosion
Fluid Influxes
Causes
Symptoms of Unwanted Influxes Prevention of Influxes
Solutions to Unwanted Influxes
Causes
Major cause is UBD. Three requirements for influx.
some measurable porosity.

Permeability.
wellbore pressure < formation
pressure.
Symptoms of Unwanted Influxes

Fluids being returned to the surface that
are not pumped into the wellbore. Damp cuttings when drilling with dry gas. Reduction in the number of cuttings at the surface. Increased injection pressure. Loss of returns.
Prevention of Influxes
Only real prevention is to drill
overbalanced. But this is not possible if our goal is to purposefully drill underbalanced.
Solutions to Unwanted Influxes

Control influx rate. When
drilling with gas or air, attempt to unload the liquids from the hole. May require a switch to mist drilling. Increase EMW in stages. Carefully weighting up the system.

Excessive Vibration
Stuck Pipe and Fishing

Causes
Symptoms
Prevention
Solutions
Causes
All causes of stuck pipe can
occur during UBD except differential sticking. Keyseating. Excessive cuttings due to wellbore instability. Mud rings.
Symptoms
Cannot pick up the drillstring.
Prevention
Proper
design of the drillstring. Adequate hole cleaning.
Solutions
Fishing.

Excessive Vibration
Corrosion
Requirements for Corrosion. Causes and Factors Effecting
Corrosion. Symptoms. Prevention. Solution.
Requirements for Corrosion

Requires
the components:
a cathode.
an electrolyte.
presence
of
four
an anode (component that corrodes).
an external connection.
Simple Corrosion Cell
Causes and Factors Effecting Corrosion
Fluid utilized is the single largest source of corrosion. The fluid becomes the electrolyte.
Corrosion Rate Factors

Oil content.
Conductivity of electrolyte. pH of the fluid.
Temperature and Pressure.

Fluid velocity. Bacteria.
Internal and External stress
concentrations. Presence of dissimilar metals.

Symptoms
Generalized corrosion.
Pitting.
Prevention
Corrosion cannot be stopped, but it can be slowed.
Solution
Avoidance
Inhibition
END

Lesson 16 Risk Management and Problems

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Lesson 16 Risk Management and Problems

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PETE 689 - UBD

Lesson 16 Risk Management and Downhole Problems

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Risk Management and Downhole Problems

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Risk Management and Downhole Problems

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Risks can be mitigated by:

Probability Mitigation Succeeds

Estimate the probability will succeed.

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Risk Mitigation Table

Probability Mitigation Succeeds

Drill string failure

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Quantitative Risk Analysis

What is Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Risk Analysis? Why should I use Quantitative risk Analysis?

Risk Analysis and Decision-Making

What is Quantitative Risk Analysis?

What is Quantitative Risk Analysis?

When should I use Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Why should I use Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Why should I use Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Communication. Decision and Action.

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

probability distribution. Conduct an assessment Monte Carlo simulation.

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Evaluation and Communication

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Decision and Action

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Probability (H,M,L) Avg

Large groups unwieldy.

All should take active part.

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

What-If for Hazards

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

With a Hazard Named:

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

LTI-Disability Or Damage $ 25K-1 MM

Non-LTI Injury Or Damage < $ 25K

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Possible Will Occur Sometimes

Unlikely Rarely Occurs

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

For Well Control, Risk must be at Low Level.

With Risks Assessed

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering

Three more steps.

Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering