INDEX NUMBER

Presented By : Indah Tiara Amiati ( 1206317410 ) Yudika Setiawan ( 1306485554 )

STATISTIK EKONOMI DAN BISNIS EKSTENSI AKUNTANSI UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA 2014

Index Number
Index number pada dasarnya merupakan suatu angka yang dibuat sedemikian rupa sehingga dapat digunakan untuk melakukan perbandingan antara kegiatan yang sama (produksi, ekspor, hasil penjualan, jumlah yang beredar, dsb) dalam dua waktu yang berbeda. Index number dapat menunjukan maju mundurnya atau naik turunnya suatu usaha atau kegiatan. Pemerintah maupun perusahaan dengan modern management membuat berbagai macam index untuk keperluan monitoring atau evaluasi.

Aplikasi Indeks Angka dalam Bisnis dan Ekonomi

Price index menunjukkan perubahan dalam harga komoditas atau kelompok komoditas dari waktu ke waktu. Quantity index menunjukkan perubahan jumlah komoditi atau kelompok komoditas yang digunakan atau dibeli dari waktu ke waktu. Value index menunjukkan perubahan total nilai dollar (harga X kuantitas) komoditas atau kelompok komoditas dari waktu ke waktu.

Simple Relative Index

Sebuah indeks relatif sederhana menunjukkan perubahan harga, kuantitas, atau nilai dari komoditas tunggal dari waktu ke waktu. Perhitungan indeks relatif sederhana:

Harga pada periode t Index periode t = (100) Harga pada tahun dasar

Contoh: Simple Relative price Index

Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 Price $140 195 240 275 Price Index 1980 as base year 100.0 139.3 171.4 196.4 Price Index 1990 as base year 58.3 81.3 100.0 114.6

Perhitungan indeks untuk 1985 (1980 sebagai tahun dasar):

Pt I 100 195 100 139.3 P 140 0

Simple Aggregate Index

Simple Aggregate Index menunjukkan perubahan

harga, jumlah, atau nilai-nilai dari kelompok item terkait. Setiap item dalam kelompok diperlakukan sebagai memiliki bobot yang sama untuk tujuan membandingkan pengukuran kelompok dari waktu ke waktu.

(Sum of measurements for all items in period t ) Index in Period t 100 (Sum of measurements for all items in base period)

Contoh: Simple Aggregate Quantity Index

Simple Aggregate Index, for Cars & Trucks Sold (1995 as base yr) 94.0 100.0 104.0 111.7

Yr 1994 1995 1996 1997

Cars Sold 423 435 440 455

Trucks Sold 141 165 184 215

Ilustrasi perhitungan indeks untuk 1994:

Qt I 100 423 141 100 94.0 435 165 Q0

Weighted Aggregate Index

Simple aggregate index numbers

mungkin tidak berlaku dalam membandingkan kelompok item karena perbedaan volume item yang digunakan atau perbedaan dalam satuan pengukuran.

Dalam Weighted Aggregate Index, pengukuran setiap

item dikalikan dengan faktor bobot yang tepat sebelum dikumpulkan dengan item lainnya untuk mendapatkan pengukuran gabungan.

Weighted Aggregate Index: Selecting Weights

Untuk memastikan bahwa perubahan yang ditunjukkan oleh index number hanya fokus pada aspek kepentingan (misalnya, harga atau kuantitas), faktor bobot yang sama harus digunakan untuk pengukuran agregat dalam jangka waktu yang dipilih dan dalam periode dasar. Dalam weighted aggregate price indexes, Quantity yang sesuai sering digunakan sebagai faktor tertimbang. Dalam weighted aggregate quantity indexes, harga yang sesuai sering digunakan sebagai faktor tertimbang.

The Paasche Index

Angka index yang ditimbang dengan faktor penimbang

kuantitas tahun berjalan bukan tahun dasar

Pt Qt I 100 P0 Qt
Pt = price of item in period t P0 = price of item in base period Qt = quantity of item in period t

Contoh-Paasche Index
Paasche index for airline tickets for 1997 using base year of 1990: Product Coach First Class Price, 1990 $380 725 Price, 1997 Quantity, 1997 $430 181,000 940 14,000

Computation of index for 1997:

Pt Qt I P0 Qt , ) (940)(14,000)100 1153 (430)(181000 . (380)(181000 , ) (725)(14,000)

Laspeyres Index
Menentukan

sebuah indek tertimbang dengan menggunakan bobot penimbang adalah periode dasar.

Q P t 0 100 I Q P 0 0
Pt = price of item in period t P0 = price of item in base period Q0 = quantity of item in base year

Contoh: Laspeyres Index

Laspeyres index for airline tickets for 1997 using base year of 1990:
Product Coach First Class Price, 1990 $380 725 Price, 1997 Quantity, 1990 $430 160,000 940 15,000

Pt Q0 I P0 Q0 (430)(160,000) (940)(15,000)100 1157 . (380)(160,000) (725)(15,000)

Computation of index for 1997:

The Fisher Equation

Contoh The Fisher Equation

Nominal and Real Value

Consumer Price Index

A weighted aggregate price index used to reflect the overall change in the cost of goods and services purchased by a typical consumer. Applications:
Indicator of rate of inflation Used to adjust wages to compensate for lost purchasing power due to inflation Used to convert a price or wage to a real price or real wage to show the equivalent amount in a base period after adjusting for inflation.

Cost of CPI basket at current period prices CPI = Cost of CPI basket at base period prices

x 100

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer.

4 hot dogs, 2 hamburgers

Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time.
Price of Hot dogs $1 $2 $3 Price of Hamburgers $2 $3 $4

Year 2001 2002 2003

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

Compute the Baskets Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times.
2001 2002 2003 ($1 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($2 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $8 ($2 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($3 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $14 ($3 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($4 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $20

Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index: Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100.
2001 2002 2003 ($8/$8) x 100 = 100 ($14/$8) x 100 = 175 ($20/$8) x 100 = 250

 Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period.
Inflation Rate in Year2 CPI in Year 2 - CPI in Year 1 100 CPI in Year 1

2002 2003

(175-100)/100 x 100 = 75% (250-175)175 x 100 = 43%

Inflation when prices of goods, services, and housing costs increase over time. Deflation would be when prices decrease

 Nominal and Real Values in Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics makes a big issue of the distinction between nominal values and real values:
Nominal GDP and real GDP Nominal wage rate and real wage rate Nominal interest rate and real interest rate

Meaning of Real values

$100,000 CPI = 100 $100,000 CPI = 200 =1 Cost of Basket Cost of Basket base =2

Cost of Basket Cost of Basket base

Cost of Basket is the same as in base

Real = (Nominal/CPI)*100 The real value of $100,000 is: (100,000/100)*100 =$100,000 $100,000 buy $100,000 worth of basket goods

Cost of Basket is twice the cost in base

The real value of $100,000 is: (100,000/200)*100 =$50,000 $100,000 buy $50,000 worth of basket goods

Your salary in 2002 was $60,000. What should be your salary in 2011 in order to leave you with the same buying power $60,000 had in 2002?

CPI (2002) = 179.9 2002 $60,000 (224.9)/(179.9) =1.25 Multiply by 1.25

CPI (2011) = 224.9 2011 $75,008.3 ?

Prices in 2011 are 1.25 times larger than in 2002 You need to have 1.25 times as much money in 2011

23

Shifting the Base of an Index

For useful interpretation, it is often desirable for the base year to be fairly recent. If two or more time series have the same base period, they can be compared directly, but when two or more series being compared do not have the same base period To shift the base year to another year without recalculating the index from the original data:
Index for year t in new base year = Index for year t relative to old base year 100 Index for new base year relative to old base year

Example: Shifting a Base Year

We want to compare the price changes of Nortel Networks Corporation common stock prices which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange in $US and on the Toronto Stock Exchange in $Cdn. The information follows.

2004
High First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter 11.94 8.35 6.40 4.80

$US
Low 5.53 4.16 4.11 3.49 8.50 6.33 5.05 3.91

$Cnd
High Low 3.98 4.30 3.01 3.16

From the information given, we are not sure the base periods are the same, so a direct comparison is not appropriate. Because we want to compare the changes in the stock prices in the two stock markets, the logical thing to do is to let a particular period, say the first quarter, be the base for both periods. For the Toronto Stock Exchange, $8.50 becomes the base for the high price, and $3.98 for the low price. For the New York stock market, $11.94 becomes the base for the high price, and $5.53 for the low price.

The calculations for the $US High, fourth quarter using $11.94

We conclude that all four indexes have decreased over the year, but the US indexes have decreased more than the Canadian, and so, we can conclude that the US stock prices have decreased more than the Canadian stock prices.

Thank You