Statistics and ANOVA

ME 470 Fall 2013

Here are some interesting on-the-s ot designs !rom the ast and this class"

Fall 200#$ 0"27 %ost&Height

'inner$ S ring 2010 1() *all +, %ost 0"(33 %ost&Height

Fall 2011 Height - 12 %ost - . %ost&Height - 0"(

Fall 2011 Height - 24 %ost - 12 %ost&height - 0"(

/ reall0 en1o0 the on-the-s ot design"

'hat did 0o2 learn a3o2t the design rocess4 *here are man0 challenges in rod2ct de5elo ment

*rade-o!!s 60namics 6etails *ime ress2re Economics 7etting something to 8or9 Satis!0ing societal needs *eam di5ersit0 *eam s irit

'h0 do / lo5e rod2ct de5elo

6esign is a rocess that re:2ires ment4 ma9ing decisions"

;rod2ct 6e5elo ment ;hases

Planning Concept System-Level Development Design Detail Design Testing and Refinement Production Ramp-Up

%once t 6e5elo ment ;rocess

"ission Statement #dentify Customer $eeds Esta%lis Target Specifications &enerate Product Concepts

<o2 8ill ractice the entire conce t de5elo Perform ment Economic Analysis rocess 8ith Benc mar! Competitive Products 0o2r gro2 ro1ect
Build and Test "odels and Prototypes

Select Product Concept's(

Test Product Concept's(

Set )inal Specifications

Plan Do*nstream Development

Development Plan

'e 8ill 2se statistics to ma9e good design decisions=

'e 8ill categori>e o 2lations 30 the mean$ standard de5iation$ and 2se control charts to determine i! a rocess is in control" 'e ma0 3e !orced to r2n e? eriments to characteri>e o2r s0stem" 'e 8ill 2se 5alid statistical tools s2ch as @inear Aegression$ 6OE$ and Ao32st 6esign methods to hel 2s ma9e those characteri>ations"

%2mmins as9ed a ca stone gro2 to in5estigate im ro5ements !or t2r3o charger l23rication sealing"

5.9L High Output Cummins Engine

Cummins #nc+ *as dissatisfied *it t e integrity of t eir tur%oc arger oil sealing capa%ilities+

Here are ict2res o! oil lea9age"

,il Lea!age into Compressor -ousing

,il Lea!age on #mpellor Plate

*he st2dents de5elo ed !o2r rotot0 es !or testing" A!ter testing$ the0 8anted to 9no8 8hich sol2tion to resent to %2mmins" <o2 8ill anal0>e their data to ma9e a s2ggestion"

Ho8 can 8e 2se statistics to ma9e sense o! data that 8e are getting4
B2i> !or the da0 'hat can 8e sa0 a3o2t o2r MCMs4 'e 8ill loo9 at the res2lts !irst and then 0o2 can do the anal0sis on 0o2r o8n"

Statistics can help us examine the data and draw justified conclusions.

'hat does the data loo9 li9e4 'hat is the mean$ the standard de5iation4 'hat are the e?treme oints4 /s the data normal4 /s there a di!!erence 3et8een 0ears4 6id one class get more MCMs than another4 /! 0o2 8ere ac9aging the MCMs$ are 0o2 doing a good 1o34 /! 0o2 are the designer$ 8hat !actors might ca2se the 5ariation4

'h0 8o2ld 8e care a3o2t this data in design4

/! / am a lant manager$ do / li9e one distri32tion 3etter than another4

Ho8 do 8e inter ret the 3o? lot4

largest value excluding outliers
Boxplot of BSNOx
2.45

Q3

2.40

2.35 BSNOx

(Q2), median

2.30

Q1
2.25

2.20

smallest value excluding outliers Val2es 3et8een 1"( and 3 times a8a0 !rom the middle (0D o! the data are o2tliers"

outliers are marked as *

*his is a densit0 descri tion o! the data"

T e Anderson-Darling normality test is used to determine if data follo* a normal distri%ution+

/! the -5al2e is lo8er than the redetermined le5el o! signi!icance$ the data do not !ollo8 a normal distri32tion"

Anderson-Darling $ormality Test Meas2res the area 3et8een the !itted line E3ased on chosen distri32tionF and the non arametric ste !2nction E3ased on the lot ointsF" *he statistic is a s:2ared distance that is 8eighted more hea5il0 in the tails o! the distri32tion" Anderson Smaller Anderson-6arling 5al2es indicates that the distri32tion !its the data 3etter" *he Anderson-6arling Normalit0 test is de!ined asG H0G *he data !ollo8 a normal distri32tion" HaG *he data do not !ollo8 a normal distri32tion" Another :2antitati5e meas2re !or re orting the res2lt o! the normalit0 test is the -5al2e" A small -5al2e is an indication that the n2ll h0 othesis is !alse" EAemem3erG /! is lo8$ H0 m2st go"F ;-5al2es are o!ten 2sed in h0 othesis tests$ 8here 0o2 either re1ect or !ail to re1ect a n2ll h0 othesis" *he -5al2e re resents the ro3a3ilit0 o! ma9ing a *0 e / error$ 8hich is re1ecting the n2ll h0 othesis 8hen it is tr2e" *he smaller the -5al2e$ the smaller is the ro3a3ilit0 that 0o2 8o2ld 3e ma9ing a mista9e 30 re1ecting the n2ll h0 othesis" /t is c2stomar0 to call the test statistic Eand the dataF signi!icant 8hen the n2ll h0 othesis H0 is re1ected$ so 8e ma0 thin9 o! the -5al2e as the smallest le5el H at 8hich the data are signi!icant"

<o2 can 2se the I!at encil) test in addition to the -5al2e"
Note that o2r 5al2e is :2ite lo8$ 8hich ma9es 2s consider re1ecting the !act that the data are normal" Ho8e5er$ in assessing the closeness o! the oints to the straight line$ Iimagine a !at encil l0ing along the line" /! all the oints are co5ered 30 this imaginar0 encil$ a normal distri32tion ade:2atel0 descri3es the data") Montgomer0$ Design and Analysis of Experiments$ .th Edition$ " 3# /! 0o2 are con!2sed a3o2t 8hether or not to consider the data normal$ it is al8a0s 3est i! 0o2 can cons2lt a statistician" *he a2thor has o3ser5ed statisticians !eeling :2ite ha 0 8ith ass2ming 5er0 !at lines are normal"

For more on Normalit0 and the Fat ;encil htt G&&888"statit"com&s2 ort&:2alit0J racticeJti s&normalJ ro3a3ilit0J lot Jinter re"shtml

'alter She8hart
6e5elo er o! %ontrol %harts in the late 1#20Ks
<o2 did %ontrol %harts in 6FM" *here the em hasis 8as on tolerances" Here the em hasis is on determining i! a rocess is in control" /! the rocess is in control$ 8e 8ant to 9no8 the ca a3ilit0" ***+yor!+ac+u!.+++. iststat.people.*elcome+ tm

'hat does the data tell 2s a3o2t o2r rocess4

S;% is a contin2o2s im ro5ement tool 8hich minimi>es tam ering or 2nnecessar0 ad12stments E8hich increase 5aria3ilit0F 30 disting2ishing 3et8een s ecial ca2se and common ca2se so2rces o! 5ariation %ontrol %harts ha5e t8o 3asic 2sesG 7i5e e5idence 8hether a rocess is o erating in a state o! statistical control and to highlight the resence o! s ecial ca2ses o! 5ariation so that correcti5e action can ta9e lace" Maintain the state o! statistical control 30 e?tending the statistical limits as a 3asis !or real time decisions" /! a rocess is in a state o! statistical control$ then ca a3ilit0 st2dies m0 3e 2nderta9en" EL2t not 3e!ore== /! a rocess is not in a state o! statistical control$ 0o2 m2st 3ring it 2nder control"F S;% a lies to design acti5ities in that 8e 2se data !rom man2!act2ring to redict the ca a3ilit0 o! a man2!act2ring s0stem" Mno8ing the ca a3ilit0 o! the man2!act2ring s0stem la0s a cr2cial role in selecting the conce ts"

Voice o! the ;rocess

%ontrol limits are not s ec limits" %ontrol limits de!ine the amo2nt o! !l2ct2ation that a rocess 8ith onl0 common ca2se 5ariation 8ill ha5e" %ontrol limits are calc2lated !rom the rocess data" An0 !l2ct2ations 8ithin the limits are sim l0 d2e to the common ca2se 5ariation o! the rocess" An0thing o2tside o! the limits 8o2ld indicate a s ecial ca2se Eor changeF in the rocess has occ2rred" %ontrol limits are the 5oice o! the rocess"

*he ca a3ilit0 inde? de ends on the s ec limit and the rocess standard de5iation"
% - Eallo8a3le rangeF&.s - ENS@ - @S@F&.s
@S@ @%@ NS@ EN er Specification @imitF

N%@ EN er Control @imitF

htt G&&lorien"ncl"ac"29&ming&s c&s c#"htm

N er %ontrol @imit !or 200+

@o8er %ontrol @imit !or 200+

Minita3 rints res2lts in the Session 8indo8 that lists an0 !ail2res"
Test Results for # C art of Stac!edTotals %y C/ *ES* 1" One oint more than 3"00 standard de5iations !rom center line" *est Failed at ointsG 12# *ES* 2" # oints in a ro8 on same side o! center line" *est Failed at ointsG 1($ 110$ 111$ 112$ 113 *ES* (" 2 o2t o! 3 oints more than 2 standard de5iations !rom center line Eon one side o! %@F" *est Failed at ointsG (2$ ..$ 11#$ 1.0$ 1.1 *ES* ." 4 o2t o! ( oints more than 1 standard de5iation !rom center line Eon one side o! %@F" *est Failed at ointsG #1$ #7 *ES* 7" 1( oints 8ithin 1 standard de5iation o! center line Ea3o5e and 3elo8 %@F" *est Failed at ointsG 1#3$ 1#4$ 1#($ 1#.$ 1#7$ 1#+$ 1##$ 200

*his chart is e?tremel0 hel !2l !or deciding 8hat statistical techni:2e to 2se"
X Data Single X
Discrete X Data Continuous

Multiple Xs
Discrete X Data Continuous Discrete

Single Y

Y Data Discrete

C!i-S"uare

#ogistic $egression Y Data

Multiple #ogistic $egression

Multiple #ogistic $egression

Y Data

Multiple Ys

Continuous

One-sample ttest Two-sample ttest ANO A

Simple #inear $egression

Continuous

ANO A

Multiple #inear $egression

'hen to 2se ANOVA

*he 2se o! ANOVA is a ro riate 8hen 6e endent 5aria3le is contin2o2s /nde endent 5aria3le is discrete$ i"e" categorical /nde endent 5aria3le has 2 or more le5els 2nder st2d0 /nterested in the mean 5al2e *here is one inde endent 5aria3le or more 'e 8ill !irst consider 12st one inde endent 5aria3le

ANOVA Anal0sis o! 0ariance

Nsed to determine the e!!ects o! categorical inde endent 5aria3les on the a5erage res onse o! a contin2o2s 5aria3le %hoices in M/N/*AL One-8a0 ANOVA

Nse 8ith one !actor$ 5aried o5er m2lti le le5els

*8o-8a0 ANOVA
Nse 8ith t8o !actors$ 5aried o5er m2lti le le5els

Lalanced ANOVA
Nse 8ith t8o or more !actors and e:2al sam le si>es in each cell

7eneral @inear Model

Nse an0time=

;ractical A

lications

6etermine i! o2r 3rea9 edal stic9s more than other com anies %om are 3 di!!erent s2 liers o! the same com onent %om are . com32stion reci es thro2gh sim2lation 6etermine the 5ariation in the cr2sh !orce %om are 3 distri32tions o! MCMKs And MAN< more O

*he n2ll h0 othesis !or ANOVA is that there is no di!!erence 3et8een 0ears"
&eneral Linear "odel1 Stac!edTotals versus C/ Factor *0 e @e5els Val2es %4 !i?ed 3 200+$ 2010$ 2011 T is p value indicates Anal0sis o! Variance !or Stac9ed*otals$ 2sing Ad12sted SS !or *ests t at t e assumption t at t ere is no difference So2rce 6F Se: SS Ad1 SS Ad1 MS F ; %et*een years is not %4 2 .".747 .".747 3"3374 4"71 0"010 correct2 Error 203 143"+((# 143"+((# 0"70+. *otal 20( 1(0"(30. S - 0"+41+13 A-S: - 4"43D A-S:Ead1F - 3"4#D

'hat are some concl2sions that 0o2 can reach4

/s there a statistical di!!erence 3et8een 0ears4

Main %ffects &lot for Stac'e(Totals
$itted %eans !."

!.

Mean

!.!

!.#

!.5

!.4 200 2010 Year 2011

*he 5al2e indicates that there is a di!!erence 3et8een the 0ears" *he *29e0 rinto2t tells 2s 8hich 0ears are di!!erent"
7ro2 ing /n!ormation Nsing *29e0 Method and #("0D %on!idence %4 2010 200+ 2011 N (7 +. .3 Mean 7ro2 ing 7"# A 7"7 A L 7"4 L

Means that do not share a letter are signi!icantl0 di!!erent" *he a5erages !or 2010 and 200+ are not statisticall0 di!!erent" *he a5erages !or 200+ and 2011 are not statisticall0 di!!erent"

%ommandG PStatPLasic StatisticsP6is la0 6escri ti5e Statistics

'h0 8o2ld 8e care a3o2t this data in design4

/! / am a lant manager$ do / li9e one distri32tion 3etter than another4

*his is a densit0 descri tion o! the data"

PStatPLasic StatisticsPNormalit0 *est

Select 200+

T e Anderson-Darling normality test is used to determine if data follo* a normal distri%ution+

/! the -5al2e is lo8er than the redetermined le5el o! signi!icance$ the data do not !ollo8 a normal distri32tion"

%ommandG PStatP%ontrol %hartsPVaria3le %harts !or /ndi5id2alsP/ndi5id2als

'hen doing control charts !or ME470$ select all tests"

/t ma0 3e hard to see$ 32t highlight the Itests) ta3"

Minita3 rints res2lts in the Session 8indo8 that lists an0 !ail2res"
Test Results for # C art of Stac!edTotals %y C/ *ES* 1" One oint more than 3"00 standard de5iations !rom center line" *est Failed at ointsG 12# *ES* 2" # oints in a ro8 on same side o! center line" *est Failed at ointsG 1($ 110$ 111$ 112$ 113 *ES* (" 2 o2t o! 3 oints more than 2 standard de5iations !rom center line Eon one side o! %@F" *est Failed at ointsG (2$ ..$ 11#$ 1.0$ 1.1 *ES* ." 4 o2t o! ( oints more than 1 standard de5iation !rom center line Eon one side o! %@F" *est Failed at ointsG #1$ #7 *ES* 7" 1( oints 8ithin 1 standard de5iation o! center line Ea3o5e and 3elo8 %@F" *est Failed at ointsG 1#3$ 1#4$ 1#($ 1#.$ 1#7$ 1#+$ 1##$ 200

N er %ontrol @imit !or 200+

@o8er %ontrol @imit !or 200+

%ommandG PStatPANOVAP7eneral @inear Model

'hat are some concl2sions that 0o2 can reach4

/s there a statistical di!!erence 3et8een 0ears4

Main %ffects &lot for Stac'e(Totals
$itted %eans !."

!.

Mean

!.!

!.#

!.5

!.4 200 2010 Year 2011

*he n2ll h0 othesis !or ANOVA is that there is no di!!erence 3et8een 0ears"
&eneral Linear "odel1 Stac!edTotals versus C/ Factor *0 e @e5els Val2es %4 !i?ed 3 200+$ 2010$ 2011 T is p value indicates Anal0sis o! Variance !or Stac9ed*otals$ 2sing Ad12sted SS !or *ests t at t e assumption t at t ere is no difference So2rce 6F Se: SS Ad1 SS Ad1 MS F ; %et*een years is not %4 2 .".747 .".747 3"3374 4"71 0"010 correct2 Error 203 143"+((# 143"+((# 0"70+. *otal 20( 1(0"(30. S - 0"+41+13 A-S: - 4"43D A-S:Ead1F - 3"4#D

%ommandG PStatPANOVAP7eneral @inear Model

*he 5al2e indicates that there is a di!!erence 3et8een the 0ears" *he *29e0 rinto2t tells 2s 8hich 0ears are di!!erent"
7ro2 ing /n!ormation Nsing *29e0 Method and #("0D %on!idence %4 2010 200+ 2011 N (7 +. .3 Mean 7ro2 ing 7"# A 7"7 A L 7"4 L

Means that do not share a letter are signi!icantl0 di!!erent" *he a5erages !or 2010 and 200+ are not statisticall0 di!!erent" *he a5erages !or 200+ and 2011 are not statisticall0 di!!erent"

Here is a 2se!2l re!erence i! 0o2 !eel that 0o2 need to do more reading"

ttp1..***+StatisticalPractice+com
*his recommendation is than9s to 6r" 6eVasher" <o2 can also 2se the hel in Minita3 !or more in!ormation"

@etKs loo9 at 8hat ha lain MCMKs

ened 8ith

'hat do 0o2 see 8ith the 3o? lot4

6o 8e see an0thing that loo9s 2n2s2al4

&eneral Linear "odel1 stac!edTotal versus Stac!ed3ear Factor *0 e @e5els Val2es Stac9ed<ear !i?ed 4 2004$ 200($ 200.$ 200# Anal0sis o! Variance !or stac9ed*otal$ 2sing Ad12sted SS !or *ests So2rce 6F Se: SS Ad1 SS Ad1 MS F ; Stac9ed<ear 3 11.("33 11.("33 3++"44 14#"3# 0"000 Loo! at lo* P-value2 Error 2.. .#1".3 .#1".3 2".0 *otal 2.# 1+(."#. S - 1".124# A-S: - .2"7(D A-S:Ead1F - .2"33D Nn2s2al O3ser5ations !or stac9ed*otal O3s stac9ed*otal Fit SE Fit Aesid2al 2( 27"0000 23"4..7 0"20+2 3"(333 34 20"0000 23"4..7 0"20+2 -3"4..7 20# 40"0000 21"7#17 0"1700 1+"20+3 21( 21"0000 17"4#17 0"20+2 3"(0+3 St Aesid 2"21 A -2"17 A 11"3. A 2"1# A

A denotes an o3ser5ation 8ith a large standardi>ed resid2al"

7ro2 ing /n!ormation Nsing *29e0 Method and #("0D %on!idence Stac9ed<ear N Mean 7ro2 ing 2004 .0 23"( A 200. #0 21"+ L 200( .0 20"7 % 200# .0 17"( 6 Means that do not share a letter are signi!icantl0 di!!erent" *29e0 #("0D Sim2ltaneo2s %on!idence /nter5als Aes onse Varia3le stac9ed*otal All ;air8ise %om arisons among @e5els o! Stac9ed<ear Stac9ed<ear - 2004 s23tracted !romG Stac9ed<ear @o8er %enter N er -------Q---------Q---------Q--------200( -3"(31 -2"77( -2"01# E---R---F 200. -2"3.( -1".7( -0"#+( E-R--F 200# -."731 -("#7( -("21# E--R--F -------Q---------Q---------Q---------("0 -2"( 4+4 5ero is not contained in t e intervals+ Eac year is statistically different+ '644/ got t e most2(

Stac9ed<ear - 200( s23tracted !romG Stac9ed<ear @o8er %enter N er -------Q---------Q---------Q--------200. 0"410 1"100 1"7#0 E-R--F 200# -3"#(. -3"200 -2"444 E--R--F -------Q---------Q---------Q---------("0 -2"( 0"0 Stac9ed<ear - 200. s23tracted !romG Stac9ed<ear @o8er %enter N er -------Q---------Q---------Q--------200# -4"##0 -4"300 -3".10 E--R--F -------Q---------Q---------Q---------("0 -2"( 0"0

/m lications !or design

/s there a di!!erence in rod2ction er!ormance 3et8een the lain and ean2t MCMs4

)n(i*i(ual +ui, Name-............ Section No-.......... CM-.......

&ou 'ill (e given a (ag o) %*%s. Do NOT eat t!e M/M0s1

+ount t,e num(er o) %*%s in -our (ag. .ecord t,e num(er o) eac, color, and t,e overall total. &ou ma- a//roximate i) -ou get a /iece o) an %*%. 0,en )inis,ed, -ou ma- eat t,e %*%s. 1ote2 &ou are not re3uired to eat t,e %*%s. %olor Lro8n <ello8 Aed Orange 7reen Ll2e Other N2m3er D

/nstr2ctions !or Minita3 /nstallation

Minita3 on 6FSG