Problem Solving

Objectives
Learn how to state and clarify a problem Develop a procedure for problem solving Learn the traps in problem solving

Whats typical?
Self-Doubt
Over Confidence Procrastination Flip-flops Desperation!

WRONG!

Six Criteria for Effective Decisions

Focuses on what is important Logical and consistent Acknowledges objective and subjective factors, blends analytical and intuitive thinking Does not gather too much information Tries to reach consensus Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible

Problem Solving Model

P roblem O bjectives A lternatives C onsequences T radeoffs

Additional Factors
Risk Uncertainty Linked decisions

Problem Solving Steps

State the problem carefully
Acknowledge complexities Avoid assumptions and prejudices

Specify the objectives Create imaginative alternatives Understand the consequences of the alternative Grapple with your tradeoffscont

Problem Solving Steps, cont

Clarify uncertainties Think about your risk tolerance and the risks of each alternative Consider linked decisions
Each alternative opens or closes future options

Whats the best solution?

A good solution to a well-posed Is a almost problem.

always a smarter An excellent choice solution to a poorly posed than.. problem

Define the Problem

What triggers the problem? State the problem Question the constraints of the problem statement Identify the essential elements How does this impact other decisions? What is the scope of the problem? Gain insights from others Restate problem, if necessary

What Objectives Do
Help determine what information to seek Explain your choices to others Determine the importance of, time and effort devoted to the problem

How to identify objectives

Write down the concerns you hope to address:
Wish list Worst possible outcome Impact on others Insights from others Whats a good alternative but unfeasible? What is bad about the worst alternatives?

How to identify objectives

Convert the concerns into succinct objectives Separate the ends from the means Clarify what you mean by each objective Test your objectives

Alternatives
Use your objects and ask HOW? Challenge constraints to your alternatives Set high aspirations Think through your alternatives before consulting others Learn from past experience Then ask others for suggestions

How to generate alternatives

Brainstorming
Just list alternatives, dont evaluate Never stop looking for alternatives Look for win-win alternatives

Stop when youve thought through alternatives One solution would satisfy you But still have a range of alternatives

Consequences
List the consequences of each alternative Assess the future consequences of each alternative Create a free-form description of the consequences Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a table .

Consequences
Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences Use qualitative and quantitative data Use experts if necessary Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of precision

Tradeoffs
Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others Then swaps between alternatives using measures Value incremental improvements Make consistent tradeoffs

Uncertainties
What are the key uncertainties? What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties? What are the changes of the outcomes, given these uncertainties? What are the consequences of each outcome?.

Uncertainties
Identify the key uncertainties Define the possible outcomes Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome Clarify consequences using quantitative and qualitative measures Create a decision tree

Risk Tolerance
How much risk do you want to handle? How much are others affected by your decision? Quantify the risks, if possible Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish optimism Dont avoid making risky decisions just because they are complex

How to lessen risk

Seek risk reducing information Diversify the risk Hedge the risk Insure against the risk

Linked decisions
Choose options that leave future flexibility intact Get timing right on decision tree Describe the consequences at the end points

Psychological Traps
Working on the wrong problem Failing to identify key objectives Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs Disregarding uncertainty.

Traps, cont
Failing to account for risk intolerance Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time...

So, tell me some specifics on these traps...

Common Traps
Anchoring trap Status Quo Trap Sunk Cost Trap Confirming Evidence Trap Framing Trap

Overconfidence Trap Recallability Trap Base Rate Trap Prudence Trap Random Events

Review
A model for problem solving The actions in each of the steps

Common Traps in problem solving