Appropriate Technology Pakistans Renewable Energy Profile

M.Sc Environmental Design

March 22, 2104

ALLAMA IQBAL OPEN UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Pakistan Energy Crisis Pakistan currently faces its worst energy crisis ever Lack of vision and integrated planning on part of Policymakers mainly responsible for this crisis. Some experts today like to believe that Climate Change is not an issue for Pakistan; which again can be attributed to lack of vision. Climate Change is a reality and threat is imminent for Pakistan as well; we need to get our heads out of sand. Pakistan is now included among the top GHG emitters of the world

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Top GHG Emitters in the World A report published by World Resources Institute in 2005 revealed the following: Pakistan is ranked as 35th in the world on a list of top GHG emitters, with an annual GHG emissions of 107.5 Million Tons of CO2. Fast forward to 2009: Pakistans ranking (Top GHG Emitters)*: 25th Annual GHG Emissions: 287 Million Tons CO2. Energy sector is the most significant contributor, accounting for over 82% of CO2 emissions annually and Pakistan is now at 33rd with 243.7 M tons of CO2.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Current Energy Crisis Current annual shortfall of 5,000 MW 2,000 MW additional capacity required annually to maintain the current GDP growth rate with an investment of US$ 4-6 Billion per year Energy supplies must increase to 50% of current levels by 2013 and to 80% by 2015

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Pakistan Energy Scenario:

Current GDP Growth Rate: 7% Yearly increase in Energy Demand: 8-12% Current Total Installed Capacity: 19, 522 MW Projected Demand by 2030: 162,590 MW Share of Renewables by 2030: 9,700 MW (5% share)

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

ENERGY SCENARIO: PAKISTAN Total Installed Capacity: Thermal (fossil-fuels): Hydel: Nuclear: Renewables: 19,564 MW 12,567 MW (64% share) 6,493 MW (33% share) 462 MW (2% share) 42 MW (new addition since 2008)

Electrical Energy Sector Overview:

Baseline CO2 Emissions:

Carbon Intensity Factor (based on grid mix): 0.44 tons / MWh 1 MW (Thermal) responsible for 2,000 tons of CO2 emissions 1MW (Renewables) off-sets 1,000 tons of CO2 emissions

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

GLOBAL STRATEGY SHIFT The 2020 TARGET 20% of total energy requirements to be met through ARE technologies by the year 2020 EU has taken the initiative and the lead The rest of the developed world has followed China to meet 16% of its total energy requirements through ARE technologies by 2020

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

MTDF PROJECTIONS Power Generation Plan (2015)

Addl. Capacity addition: Thermal Share:

20,000 MW 11,000 MW

Addl. 11,000 MW will add another 22 Million Tons of CO2 to the atmosphere annually

Power Generation Plan (2030)

Total Projected Capacity : Thermal Share:

162, 590 MW 111,000 MW

111,000 MW will be responsible for emitting 222 Million Tons of CO2 to the atmosphere annually

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

OPTIONS FOR GHG MITIGATION

Alternative / Renewable Energy (ARE)

Energy Efficiency & Energy Conservation (E3C) In the holistic scheme of things, E3C share is quite limited as opposed to ARE

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Pakistan Renewable Energy Potential:

Wind*: Solar*: Bagasse Cogeneration: Waste to Power: Mini & Small Hydel: Geothermal:

0. 346 Million MW 2.9 Million MW 1,800 MW 500 MW 2,000 MW 550 MW

Identified potential of 50,000 MW for wind in Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor alone

Off-grid initiatives have the potential to relieve the grid of 2000 MW during short - mid term
Over 30 Million hectares of land potentially available for energy plantations

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

MTDF PROJECTIONS (RENEWABLES) Power Generation Plan (2015)

Addl. Capacity addition: Renewables Share:

20,000 MW 800 MW

These 800 MW will mitigate 800,000 Tons of CO2 emissions annually

Power Generation Plan (2030)

Total Projected Capacity : Renewables Share:

162,590 MW 9,700 MW

9,700 MW will mitigate 10 Million Tons of CO2 to the atmosphere annually

$ Value in terms of CERs: 116 Million (at todays rate)

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

MITIGATION POTENTIAL

Assumption: The most favorable market mechanism in place backed by Governments resolve

Power Generation Plan (2025)

Potential Renewables Share:

25,000 MW

25,000 MW will mitigate 25 Million Tons of CO2 to the atmosphere annually

$ Value in terms of CERs: 300 Million (at todays rate)

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Energy in Pakistan Pakistan, despite the enormous potential of its energy resources, remains energy deficient Until early 1980 crude oil production was a nominal 13,000 barrels per day (BDP), which rose to 64,349 BPD in 199091. Since then production has been continually declining. The remaining oil reserves are estimated at 221 million barrels, which, on the average production rate of 57,000 barrels per day, will be exhausted in about 10 years.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Energy in Pakistan The total primary energy consumption in Pakistan is currently estimated at around 60 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE). Of this, 2/3rd are met by commercial energy resources with about 1/3rd being based on noncommercial energy resources like fire-wood, charcoal and cow-dung. The primary commercial consumption of 41.7 MTOE is largely based on the use of hydrocarbons.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Pakistan has appreciable coal reserves of 1.75 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE). Oil is by and large an imported source of energy. The imports of oil account for 85% of oil consumption in the country and 42.8% of commercial energy consumption. The production of indigenous oil is around 15% of total imports of oil products, which is likely to remain the case.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Hydropower
The Northern part of the country is rich with hydropower resources. Other than 12 big (capacity greater than 1MW) hydro power plants, there are a large number of sites in the high terrain, where natural and manageable waterfalls are abundantly available. Northern areas population in these areas is isolated in thin clusters and is located far from physical infrastructure. Such remote population can get great benefit from such energy sources. Micro/Mini hydropower (MHP) up to 1000 kW is roughly estimated to be 2,000 MW on perennial water falls in Northern Pakistan. Besides, there is an immense potential for exploiting water falls in the canal network particularly in Punjab, where low head high discharge exists on many canals and have potential of 1,500 MW.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Hydropower
The Pakistan Council for Appropriate Technology (PCAT) has installed on a cost sharing basis a total of 228 "run of river type" plants with total capacity of 3MW in the North Western Frontier region. Hydropower Civil Works include construction of Power channel, Power house, Electric poles, and Transmission/distribution network, are done by the beneficiaries themselves while the institute provides mechanical equipment as well as technical expertise and supervision. Hydropower plants not only provide electricity for Light at night but are also used to run Small Industrial units such as flour mills for wheat and maize thrashing, and cotton ginning during the day time when electricity is not required for lighting.

Diamir Bhasha Damsite

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Solar Energy (Photovoltaic)

Pakistan being in the Sun Belt is ideally located to take advantage of solar energy technologies, as it is abundant and widely distributed available in the country. The mean Global Irradiation falling on horizontal surface is about 200-250 watt per m2 in a day. This amounts to about 1500-3000 sun shine hours and 1.9 - 2.3 MWh per m2 in a year. Baluchistan province is particularly rich in solar energy. It has an average Daily Global Insolation of 19 to 20 MJ/m2 a day with annual mean sunshine duration of 8 to 8.5 hours and these values are among the highest in the world. For Daily Global Radiation up to 23MJ/m2, 24 (80%) consecutive days are available in this area. Such conditions are ideal for PV and other solar energy applications.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Photovoltaic Technology (PV) is particularly suitable for small power requirements and remote area applications.

Solar Thermal Applications

There are a large number of applications in which solar energy can be utilized directly by exploiting its heat characteristics.

Solar Water Heaters

Solar water heaters that have now started gaining popularity particularly in the northern mountainous region. This is due to cold weather and limited and difficult supply of natural gas in these areas. With the increase conventional energy, the use of Solar Water Heaters is bound to increase. Recently the production and commercialization of such heaters has already been started in the private sector.

Grid Solar System

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Solar Cooker A number of public sector organizations have worked in the past and are still working on the development of low cost and efficient designs of both box and concentrator type solar cookers. NGOs are also active in this field and have supplied a number of such cookers to the camps of Afghan refugees. The National Institute of Silicon Technology is routinely organizing training workshops on the use and maintenance of such devices.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Solar Dryers This is an area that could use solar energy very effectively in drying the agriculture products under controlled atmosphere of solar dryers and a good quality products can be obtained at much less cost. Due to absence of logistics and basic infrastructure in the area, tons of fruit is wasted every year in the northern mountains such as Gilgit, Skardu etc. Solar dryers are now being used to dry such fruit and transport and sell these later in the urban market. NGOs are actively working in the area. Such dryers could be equally effective in Panjab and Sindh province to dry the agriculture products for better market value and generating local employment.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Solar Desalination The unavailability of drinkable water in large parts of Baluchistan, Sindh and southern Punjab is a critical issue. Underground water exists, but it is highly saline. Saline water is not only bad for washing and cleaning but also causes many diseases. Solar desalinated water is also free from bacteria, which is killed during the process. Solar energy can very effectively and economically be used to convert this available saline water into potable water. The technology is simple, low cost and can easily be adopted by local people.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Solar Desalination

Two plants consisting of 240 stills each with a capacity to clean 6,000 gallons of seawater per day has been installed at Gwader. Experiment has been very successful and could bring a change in the life style of the local population in areas of scarcity of drinkable water. A number of such schemes are under active consideration by local governments in Baluchistan and Thar.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Wind
Very few Wind Turbines for Power Generation have not been installed in Pakistan. However about 30 Wind Mills for pumping water have been installed for experimental purposes in different parts of Sindh and Baluchistan. The experiments have suffered due to low quality mills and lack of proper infrastructure for maintenance. Currently a local manufacturer, Merin LTD, is fabricating windmills for water lifting. The company has sold these locally and abroad. Recently a proposal for a wind survey is being launched to provide authenticated data on wind speeds at different altitudes along the coast and mountains.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Wind
Wind is another source that could be utilized in the medium term in Pakistan. The only wind data available is with the meteorological directorate. This data was recorded at a low height of about 12 feet and is not enough to have a true picture regarding the availability of wind energy. So there is a strong need to have a systematic study of wind data at altitudes of 30 to 100 feet particularly in the most promising sites along the costal line and up the mountains. Average wind speed for some selected sites is not enough for wind power generation to be feasible, although the wind speed can still be utilized to run wind mills to pump water for the areas where it is available at short depths up to 100 feet.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Wind
Pakistan is blessed with a large resource of Wind Corridor. Although PMD was gathering wind data for quite long time. Recently US provided Wind Energy Map for Pakistan which confirms a strong wind corridor in Sind coastal area. AEDB issued about 80 LOI to the investors List of LOI holders ) to develop 50 MW wind farms. Out of which 15 are already issued the land and feasibility reports and financial closings are in progress Geological, seismic, tectonic and environmental studies will be required along with Digital mapping and topography of the site for preparing a bankable feasibility study. A confirm EPC cost will also be needed for calculation of tariffs. AEDB claims 50,000 MW Energy Potential from Wind Resource

Wind Turbine

Wind Turbine

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Biomass

Most economical and friendly way of disposing of the municipal waste that is collected in large quantities every day in cities. Unfortunately hardly any efforts have yet been made in this direction in Pakistan.

Biogas
Pakistan, being agriculture based, breeds sufficient livestock to produce enough animal waste for the production of biogas. Currently all such animal waste is burned in dry form as a domestic source of energy. Biogas can be largely produced on community basis. There is good potential for using biogas as rural energy throughout the country

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Biogas

The Government of Pakistan started a comprehensive biogas scheme in 1974 and commissioned 4,137 biogas units by 1987 throughout the country. The units were designed to provide 3,000 and 5,000 cubic feet of biogas per day for cooking and lighting purposes. This program was developed in three phases. st During 1 phase, 100 demonstration units were installed under grant by the Government. During the second phase, the cost of the biogas was shared between the beneficiaries and the Government. Later on for 3rd phase, the government withdrew the financial support, although technical support continued to be provided free of cost. Unfortunately, after the withdrawal of the government financial

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Research and Development

Solar Energy Technologies, in Pakistan have not been exploited on a large scale for a number of reasons i.e. fear of the high cost of solar energy technologies, lack of motivation and incentives, inadequate demonstration of effective use of the technologies. Recently there has been an awakening among government circles to the need to use renewable energy technologies to save the environment and improve the socio-economic conditions of the peoples living in the remote areas. For this reason solar energy has been listed as a high priority area in the 9th Five Year Plan. However there is need to take certain practical measures in this respect.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Research and Development - Recommended Measures

Formulate long term strategies to include, progressively, the renewable/solar energy technologies in the national energy policy; Provide adequate funds for R&D and for transforming laboratory products into commercial products; Motivate entrepreneurs through policy initiatives such as tax holidays, reduction/exemption from duties and taxes;

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Research and Development - Recommended Measures

Provide soft loans/subsidies to the end users; Motivate through mass media, exhibition, field demonstration, education and training; Encourage installation of solar lights and other appliances on public buildings, parks, streets etc; Provide funds for renewable energy demonstration community projects.

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Research and Development - Institutional Structure In Pakistan all the R&D work is carried out by public sector organizations. The bodies wholly or partly engaged in research in the field of renewable energy technologies and their applications are described in this section. National Institute of Silicon Technology (NIST) Pakistan Council of Appropriate Technology (PCAT) Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies Solar Energy Research Center Universities

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

Research and Development - Renewable Energy Projects

Energy Self-Sufficient Model House Rural Area Electrification Solar Desalination Pilot Project Community Solar Dryers for Drying Grains, Fruits and Vegetables PV Telecommunication Systems Solar Hydrogen Production Pilot Project Integrated Renewable Energy Community Project Installation of 1 MW Solar Thermal Power Plant in Desert Area of Pakistan. Biogas Plants for meeting Domestic Fuel and Fertilizer Needs of Rural Improvement and Dissemination of 100 improved Micro Hydropower Plants (MHP) in NWFP, FATA, Northern areas of the country. Biomass Utilization at Community Level. Dissemination of 100 Wind turbines for Water Pumping and Power Generation in the Southern and Coastal Areas Potable Water Supply System in Remote Areas by Photovoltaic Pumping. Installation of Solar Garden Lights at Public Places Installation of Solar Street Lights. Training Courses on Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Application

Pakistan Renewable Energy Profile

MITIGATION POTENTIAL The world we live in is not inherited to us by our forefathers, rather it has been loaned to us by our future generations

African Proverb

WE NEED TO ACT, NOW

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