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Chapter Eleven 1

A PowerPoint

Tutorial
to Accompany macroeconomics, 5th ed.
N. Gregory Mankiw








BAB 11
Aggregate Demand II
Chapter Eleven 2
Perpotongan IS dan LM menentukan tingkat
pendapatan nasional. Jika salah satu kurva
bergeser keseimbangan jk.pendek berubah dan
pendapatan nasional berfluktuasi
Dikaji : (1) Fluktuasi pendapatan nasional.
Perubahan dalam var. Eksogen (G, T, M)
mempengaruhi var. Endagen (r, Y).
Bagaimana guncangan pada pasar brg (IS) dan
LM, mempengaruhi r dan Y. (2) Model IS LM
memberikan teori tentang kv AD. Asumsi harga
tetap dihilangkan hub. Negatif harga dengan
pdpt nasional. (3) Depresi besar th 30
(lahirnya ekonomi makro).
Chapter Eleven 3
11.1. Fluktuasi model IS - LM
Kebijakan fiskal menggeser kurva IS dan mengubah
keseimbangan jk.pendek. Misal : KenaikaN G.
Gbr 11.1.

B
A
r
1

Tingkat bunga, r
Pendapatan, Output (Y)
r
2

Y
1
Y
2

IS
1

LM
IS
2

G menggeser kurva IS ke
kanan sebesar G/(1-MPC),
akibatnya r dan Y.
Chapter Eleven 4
Ket Gambar 11.1
Perpotongan keynesian : G E Y
Pasar uang : Y L(r,Y) r dimana
(M/P)s tetap
Akibat r I menghapus dampak
ekspansif dari kenaikan G.
Y akibat G model IS-LM < Y akibat
G keynesian. Crowding Out of
Investment
Chapter Eleven 5
Perubahan dalam Pajak
Perpotongan keynesian : T C E
Pada IS-LM : IS sebesar Y dan r
Akibat r I menghapus dampak
ekspansif dari penurunan T.
Y akibat G model IS-LM < Y akibat
G keynesian
Chapter Eleven 6
Gbr. 11.2.


B
A
r
1

Tingkat bunga, r
Pendapatan, Output (Y)
r
2

Y
1
Y
2

IS
1

LM
IS
2

T menggeser kurva IS ke
kanan sebesar
Chapter Eleven 7
Kebijakan moneter menggeser kurva LM dan
mengubah keseimbangan jk.pendek.
Contoh : Jika (M/P)s keseimbangan uang riil (M/P)
karena P tetap pada jk.pendek r dan LM bergeser ke
kanan bawah (Gbr 11.3)

B
A
r
2

Tingkat bunga, r
Y
r
1

Y
1
Y
2

LM
11

IS
Kenaikan dalam
penawaran uang
menggeser kurva
Lm ke bawah
LM
21

Chapter Eleven 8
Model IS LM : Kebijakan moneter
mempengaruhi Y dgn mengubah tingkat r.
Bab 9 : jk pendek, harga kaku, ekspansi
jumlah uang beredar meningkatkan Y. Tapi
tidak dibahas kalau mendorong pengeluaran
yang lebih besar disebut mekanisme
transmisi moneter.
Model IS LM : Kenaikan jumlah uang
beredar Menurunkan suku bunga
mendorong investasi memperbesar
permintaan brg/jasa
Chapter Eleven 9
Interaksi antara Kebijakan Fiskal
dan Moneter
Misal : Tanggapan perekonomian terhadap
kenaikan pajak. Hal ini tergantung pada
bagaimana otoritas moneter
menanggapinya. Ada 3 skenario, yaitu :
1) Fed mempertahankan penawaran uang konstan
2) Fed mempertahankan tingkat bunga konstan
3) Fed mempertahankan pendapatan
Chapter Eleven 10
1) Fed mempertahankan penawaran
uang konstan
Y
2

IS
2

r
IS
1

r
2

Y
r
1

Y
1

LM
1
1

Kenaikan pajak
menggeser kurva
IS ke kiri.
Tetapi karena FED
mempertahankan
MS maka kurva LM
konstan. Akibatnya
r dan Y
Chapter Eleven 11
2) Fed mempertahankan tingkat
bunga konstan

LM
2

Y
2

IS
2

r
IS
1

Y
r
Y
1

LM
1

Kenaikan pajak
menggeser kurva IS
ke kiri.
Tetapi karena Fed
mempertahankan r
tetap sehingga
mengkontraksi MS
akibatnya r tetap
dan Y
Chapter Eleven 12
3) Fed mempertahankan pendapatan
konstan

IS
2

IS
1

r
2

Y
r
1

Y
LM
1

Kenaikan pajak
menggeser kurva IS
ke kiri.
Tetapi untuk
mempertahankan Y,
maka Fed
meningkatkan MS,
akibatnya r dan Y
tetap
LM
2

Chapter Eleven 13
Guncangan dalam Model IS-LM
Guncangan kurva IS dapat terjadi akibat:
perubahan eksogen dalam permintaan
terhadap barang dan jasa
perubahan permintaan terhadap barang-
barang konsumen
Guncangan kurva LM terjadi akibat :
perubahan eksogen dalam permintaan
terhadap uang
Chapter Eleven 14
Dari Model IS-LM ke Kurva AD
Mengapa kuva AD miring ke bawah ?
Untuk penawaran uang M tertentu, tingkat
harga P yang lebih tinggi mengurangi
penawaran keseimbangan uang riil (M/P)
mengeser kurva LM ke atas r dan Y
Chapter Eleven 15

r
Y
Y
Y
2

IS
r
1

r
2

Y
1

LM
2

LM
1

Y
2

AD
p
1

P
2

Y
1

Kurva AD meringkas
hubungan P dan Y
P
P (M/P)
menggeser LM ke
kiri atas
Y dan r
Kurva AD : Hubungan negatif antara Pdpt dg harga.
Perubahan pendapatan dalam model IS-LM yang
disebabkan perubahan harga, menunjukkan pergerakan
di AD
Chapter Eleven 16
Apakah yang menyebabkan kurva
AD bergeser ?
Karena kurva AD hanya meringkas hasil
dari model IS-LM maka peristiwa yang
menggeser kurva IS atau kurva LM pada
tingkat harga tertentu menyebabkan kurva
AD bergeser
Chapter Eleven 17
Gbr 11.6.
a) Kebijakan Moneter Ekspansif

AD
2

AD
1

Y
2

r
Y
Y
IS
r
1

r
2

Y
1

LM
1

LM
2

Y
1

P
Y
2

Kurva AD bergeser ke
kanan
P
M Y untuk
setiap tk P.
LM bergeser
Y dan r
Chapter Eleven 18
b) Kebijakan Fiskal Ekspansif (G , T)

IS
1

AD
2

AD
1

Y
2

Y
Y
IS
2

r
2

r
1

Y
1

LM
Y
1

P
Y
2

Kurva AD bergeser ke
kanan
Ekspansi fiskal
IS bergeser ke
kanan
Y dan r
Chapter Eleven 19
Model IS-LM dalam Jk.Pendek &
Jk.Panjang
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G IS
M/P = L(r,Y) LM
Keseimbangan jk.pendek harga tetap, output
bisa menyimpang dari tingkat alamiah.
Keseimbangan jk.panjang harga fleksibel,
tingkat harga menyesuaikan untuk menjamin
output berada pada tingkat wajarnya (Y alami
grs vertikal).
Chapter Eleven 20
Titik K :keseimbangan jk.pendek ; titik C : jk.panjang.
Pada titik K, Ya < Y (resesi) secara berangsur demand
turun perekonomian berbalik ke tingkat alamiah (C).
C
C
K
K
IS
1

SRAS
2

SRAS
1

r
Y
Y
IS
2

P
2

P
1

Y
a

LM(P
1
)
Y
a

Model AS-AD
P
Model IS-LM
LM(P
2
)
AD
LRAS
Chapter Eleven 21
Persamaan IS-LM memuat 3 var endogen : Y, P, r.
Keynesian : P = P1. Maka r dan Y harus
disesuaikan untuk memenuhi persamaan IS-LM.
Baik menjelaskan jk pendek
Pendekatan klasik, melengkapi dengan asumsi
output mencapai tingkat alamiahnya. Y = Y
Maka r dan P harus disesuaikan untuk memenuhi
persamaan IS-LM. Baik menjelaskan jk panjang.
Chapter Eleven 22
Great Depression (data yang terjadi : tabel 11.2)
Hipotesis Pengeluaran : Guncangan pada kurva IS
awal tahun 1930-an, ditunjukkan oleh Y dan r
Akibat pergeseran kontraktif kurva IS spending
hypotesis
Beberapa hal yang dipandangan ekonom,
menyebabkan pergeseran kontraktif kurva IS :
akibat turunnya konsumsi dan jatuhnya pasar
saham
Y akibat penurunan investasi perumahan
penurunan investasi perumahan akibat penurunan
populasi
Begitu depresi besar terjadi, banyak bank bankrut
Kebijakan fiskal pada tahun 1930-an yang
meningkatkan berbagai pajak
Chapter Eleven 23
Great Depression
Hipotesis Uang : Guncangan pada kurva LM
Fed membiarkan MS turun (pengangguran) dalam
jumlah yang sangat besar LM kontraktif, tetapi
ketika keseimbangan uang riil benar-benar turun,
kontraksi moneter tidak dengan mudah
menjelaskan kemerosotan ekonomi
Dan seharusnya, akibat LM kontraktif maka r ,
tetapi kenyataannya r
Kedua alasan di atas menolak pandangan bahwa
Depresi Besar disebabkan oleh pergeseran
kontraktif kurva LM
Chapter Eleven 24
Perubahan P mempengaruhi Y dalam IS-LM ?


Dampak Deflasi yang Menstabilisasi : (P Y)
Jika P pada M tetap keseimbangan uang riil
(M/P) kurva LM ekspansif Y
Pigou Effect keseimbangan uang riil adalah
bagian kekayaan RT
Jika P pada M tetap keseimbangan uang riil
(M/P) konsumen lebih kaya C kurva IS
ekspansif Y
Kedua alasan di atas membuat sebagian ekonom
percaya bhw penurunan harga membantu stabilkan
perekonomian
Chapter Eleven 25
Penyebab depresi besar krn penurunan harga
naiknya pengangguran menyebabkan
output turun.
Dampak Deflasi yang Mendestabilisasi : (P
Y)
Debt Deflation theory P pada M tetap
meningkatkan nilai riil dari utang memperkaya
kreditor & merugikan debitor
Debitor mengurangi pengeluarannya hingga lebih
besar dari jumlah pengeluaran kreditor E
pergeseran kontraktif kurva IS Y
Chapter Eleven 26
Y = C(Y-T) + I(i - e) + G IS
M/P = L(i,Y) LM

Dimana i : tingkat bunga nominal
e : inflasi yang diharapkan
(i-e) : tingkat bunga riil ex ante
Chapter Eleven 27
Perubahan dlm inflasi yang
diharapkan menggeser kurva IS

e

r
1
=i
1

IS
2

Y
IS
1

r
2

i
2

Y
2

LM
Deflasi yang
diharapkan (nilai
negatif dari
e
)
menaikkan

tingkat
bunga riil I
menggeser kurva
IS ke bawah Y
i dan r
Chapter Eleven 28
Sampai sekarang para ekonom terus
memperdebatkan penyebab kemerosotan
ekonomi dahsyat ini.
Kita menunjukkan bagaimana ekonom
menggunakan kurva IS-LM untuk
menganalisis fluktuasi ekonomi.
Membantu merumuskan kebijakan melawan
pengangguran
Chapter Eleven 29
Ir1 @
Thank You

Chapter Eleven 30

Chapter Eleven 31

Chapter Eleven 32
Now that weve assembled the IS-LM model of aggregate demand,
lets apply it to three issues:

1) Causes of fluctuations in national income

2) How IS-LM fits into the model of aggregate supply and aggregate
demand

3) The Great Depression
Chapter Eleven 33

Chapter Eleven 34

Chapter Eleven 35
The intersection of the IS curve and the LM
curve determines the level of national income.
When one of these curves shifts, the short-run
equilibrium of the economy changes, and
national income fluctuates. Lets examine how
changes in policy and shocks to the economy can
cause these curves to shift.
Chapter Eleven 36
Chapter Eleven 37
LM
r
Y
IS
A
+G
Consider an increase in government purchases.
This will raise the level of income by G/(1- MPC)
IS
B
The IS curve shifts to the right by G/(1- MPC) which raises income
and the interest rate.
Chapter Eleven 38
Chapter Eleven 39
IS
r
Y
LM
A
LM

B
+M

Consider an increase in the money supply.
The LM curve shifts downward and lowers the interest rate which raises
income. Why? Because when the Fed increases the supply of money, people
have more money than they want to hold at the prevailing interest rate. As a
result, they start depositing this extra money in banks or use it to buy bonds.
The interest rate r then falls until people are willing to hold all the extra
money that the Fed has created; this brings the money market to a new
equilibrium. The lower interest rate, in turn has ramifications for the goods
market. A lower interest rate stimulates planned investment, which increases
planned expenditure, production, and income Y.
Chapter Eleven 40
The IS-LM model shows that monetary policy influences income by
changing the interest rate. This conclusion sheds light on our analysis
of monetary policy in Chapter 9. In that chapter we showed that in
the short run, when prices are sticky, an expansion in the money
supply raises income. But, we didnt discuss how a monetary
expansion induces greater spending on goods and services--a process
called the monetary transmission mechanism.

The IS-LM model shows that an increase in the money supply lowers
the interest rate, which stimulates investment and thereby expands the
demand for goods and services.
Chapter Eleven 41
Chapter Eleven 42
You probably noticed from the IS and LM diagrams that r and Y were on
the two axes. Now were going to bring a third variable, the price level
(P) into the analysis. We can accomplish this by linking both two-
dimensional graphs.
r
P
Y
Y
IS
LM(P
1
)
A
A
AD
To derive AD, start at point A in the top
graph. Now increase the price level from P
1

to P
2
.
An increase in P lowers the value of real money
balances, and Y, shifting LM leftward to point B.
The +P triggers a sequence of events that end
with a -Y, the inverse relationship that defines
the downward slope of AD.
Notice that r increased. Since r increased, we know
that investment will decrease as it just got more
costly to take on various investment projects. This
sets off a multiplier process since -I causes a Y.
The - Y triggers -C as we move up the IS curve.
LM(P
2
)
B
B
P
2
P
1
Chapter Eleven 43
+G
This translates into a rightward shift of the IS and AD curves.
LM
(P
2
)
Suppose there is a +G.
In the short-run, we move along SRAS from
point A to point B.
But as the output market clears, in the long-run,
the price level will increase from P
0
to P
2
.
This +P decreases the value of real money
balances, which translates into a leftward shift
of the LM curve.
Finally, this leaves us at point C in both diagrams.
r
P
Y
Y
IS
LM
(P
0
)

AD
P
0

AD
IS
SRAS
A
A
B
B
P
2

C
C
LRAS
Y = C (Y-T) + I(r) + G
M/ P = L (r, Y)
Chapter Eleven 44
Now its time to determine the effects on the variables in the economy.
For the variables Y, P, and r, you can read the effects right off the diagrams.
Remember that SR is the movement
from A to B.
+, because Y moved from Y* to Y
0, because prices are sticky in the SR.
+, because a +Y leads to a rise in r
as IS slides along the LM curve.
+, because a +Y increases the level of
consumption (C=C(Y-T)).
, since r increased, the level of
investment decreased.
Y
P
r
C
I
r
P
Y
Y
IS
LM(P
0
)
AD
P
0

AD
IS
SRAS
A
A
B
B
P
2

C
C
LRAS
*
Y Y
LM(P
2
)

Chapter Eleven 45
+, in order to eliminate the excess demand at P
0
.
0, because rising P shifts LM to left, returning
Y to Y* as required by long-run LRAS.
+, reflecting the leftward shift in LM due
to +P
0, since both Y and T are back to their initial
levels (C=C(Y-T))
, since r has risen even more due to the
+P.
Y
P
r
C
I
For the variables Y, P and r, you can read the effects right off the diagrams.
Remember that LR is the movement from A to C.
r
P
Y
Y
IS
LM(P
0
)
AD
P
0

AD
IS
SRAS
A
A
B
B
P
2

C
C
LRAS
*
Y Y
LM(P
2
)

Chapter Eleven 46
LM

B
AD
B
Notice that M
\
was increased, thus increasing the value of the real money
supply which translates into a rightward shift of the LM and AD curves.
Suppose there is a +M.
Look at the appropriate equation
that captures the M term:
In the short-run, we move along SRAS from
point A to point B.
But as the output market clears, in the long-run,
the price level will increase from P
0
to P
2
.
This +P decreases the value of the
real money supply which translates into a
leftward shift of the LM curve.
Finally, this leaves us at point C in both diagrams.
C
AD
IS
r
P
Y
Y
LM
(P
0
)

P
0

SRAS
A
A
LRAS
= C
P
2

M/ P = L (r, Y)
M/ P = L (r, Y)
Chapter Eleven 47
Now its time to determine the effects on the variables in the economy.
For the variables Y, P, and r, you can read the effects right off the diagrams.
Remember that SR is the
movement from A to B.
+, because Y moved from Y* to Y
0, because prices are sticky in the SR.
, because a +Y leads to a decrease in r
as LM slides along the IS curve.
+, because a +Y increases the level of
consumption (C=C(Y-T)).
+ , since r increased, the level of
investment decreased.
Y
P
r
C
I
LM

B
AD
B
C
AD
IS
r
P
Y
Y
LM
(P0)
P
0
SRAS
A
A
LRAS
= C
P
2
(P2)
Y Y*
Chapter Eleven 48
+, in order to eliminate the excess demand at P
0
.
0, because rising P shifts LM to left, returning
Y to Y* as required by LRAS.
0, reflecting the leftward shift in LM due
to +P, restoring r to its original level.
0, since both Y and T are back to their initial
levels (C=C(Y-T)).
0, since Y or r has not changed.
Y
P
r
C
I
For the variables Y, P and r, you can read the effects right off the diagrams.
Remember that LR is the movement from A to C.
Notice that the only LR impact of an
increase in the money supply was an
increase in the price level.
LM

B
AD
B
C
= C
P
2
AD
IS
r
P
Y
Y
LM
(P0)
P
0
SRAS
A
A
LRAS
Y Y*
Chapter Eleven 49
Chapter Eleven 50
LM(P
0
)
1) +C

causes the IS curve to shift
right to IS.
LRAS

2) This leads to a rightward shift in AD
to AD.
Short Run:
Move from A to B.
Long Run:
Market clears at P
0
to P
2

from B to C.
3) +P causes LM(P
0
) to shift leftward
to LM(P
2
) due to the lowering of the
real value of the money supply.
r
Y
P
Y
IS
AD
IS'
P
0
AD'
LRAS

LM(P
2
)
A

A

B

B
P
2


C
C
Y = C (Y-T) + I(r) + G
M/ P = L (r, Y)
Chapter Eleven 51
Short
Run:
Y +
P 0
r +
C +
I -

Long
Run:
0
+
++
+
--


SRAS
r
Y
P
Y
IS
AD
IS'
P
0
AD'
LRAS
LM(P 2 )
A


A

B

B
P
2


C
C
LM(P 0 )
Chapter Eleven 52
The spending hypothesis suggests that perhaps the cause of the
decline may have been a contractionary shift of the IS curve.

The money hypothesis attempts to explain the effects of the historical
fall of the money supply of 25% from 1929 to 1933 during which
time unemployment rose from 3.2% to 25.2.%.

Some economists say that deflation worsened the Great Depression.
They argue that the deflation may have turned what in 1931 was a
typical economic downturn into an unprecedented period of high
unemployment and depressed income. Because the falling money
supply was possibly responsible for the falling price level, it could
very well have been responsible for the severity of the depression. Lets
see how changes in the price level affect income in the IS-LM model.
Chapter Eleven 53
LM
Y
IS
A
IS
B
An expected deflation (a negative value of
e
) raises the real interest
rate for any given nominal interest rate, and this depresses investment
spending. The reduction in investment shifts the IS curve downward.
The level of income and the nominal interest rate (i) fall, but the real
interest rate (r) rises.
i
2
r
1
= i
1
r
2
interest rate, i
Chapter Eleven 54
Monetary transmission mechanism
Pigou Effect
Debt-deflation theory

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