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Chapter Thirteen 1

A PowerPoint

Tutorial
to Accompany macroeconomics, 5th ed.
N. Gregory Mankiw









BAB 13
PENAWARAN AGREGAT
Chapter Thirteen 2

Overview

Bab sebelumnya : Pemintaan Agregat
Bab 9 :
AS jk panjang, vertikal, harga fleksibel
AS jk pendek, horizontak, harga kaku
Bab 13 : mendefinisikan kembali AS jk
pendek
Chapter Thirteen 3
3 MODEL terkenal untuk menjelaskan AS
(karena ekonomi tidak sepakat ttg cara
terbaik menjelaskan)
Kesimpulan Umum : Kurva AS jk pendek
berbentuk miring ke atas.
Chapter Thirteen 4
13.1 TIGA MODEL
PENAWARAN AGREGAT

KENAPA AS JK PENDEK MIRING KE ATAS?
Chapter Thirteen 5
MODEL UPAH KAKU
Penyebab : lambannya penyesuaian upah nominal
(kaku dalam jk pendek)
Apa yang terjadi pd output jika tingkat harga naik?
Upah nominal tidak berubah upah riil turun,
TK menjadi lebih murah
Perusahaan akan menggunakan lebih banyak TK
Produksi output lebih banyak
Jadi ada hubungan positif antara tingkat harga dan
output AS miring ke atas.

Chapter Thirteen 6
Gbr (a) Kurva permintaan TK. Kenaikan
tingkat harga, menurunkan upah riil,
mengakibatkan meningkatkan jumlah TK
yang diminta.
Gbr (b) Fungsi produksi, kenaikan TK,
menaikkan output
Gbr (c) AS: meringkas hub tingkat harga
dgn output
Chapter Thirteen 7


Y
AS
Y
L
W/P
L=Ld
Y=f(L)
P
L
Chapter Thirteen 8
Penetapan upah nominal
W = X Pe
Upah nominal = upah riil target tingkat harga
diharapkan
Perusahaan mempelajari tingkat harga aktual P
W/P = X (Pe/P)
Upah riil = upah riil target X tingkat harga diharapkan
Tingkat harga aktual
Upah riil menyimpang dari targetnya jika tingkat harga
aktual berbeda dari tingkat harga yang diharapkan
Chapter Thirteen 9
Kurva penawaran agregat
Y = Y + (P - Pe)
Output menyimpang dari tingkat
alamiahnya bila tingkat harga menyimpang
dari harga yg diharapkan
Chapter Thirteen 10
MODEL INFORMASI TAK SEMPURNA
Harga bebas menyesuaikan diri. Kurva jk pendek dan
panjang berbeda karena kesalahan persepsi temporer
mengenai harga.
Asumsi:
Setiap pemasok memproduksi barang tunggal,
mengkonsumsi banyak barang. Pemasok tidak dapat
mengamati seluruh harga barang, tetapi memantau
dengan ketat barang produksinya. Akibat informasi
yang tidak sempurna, kenaikan tingkat harga yang
menyebabkan kenaikan harga nominal output
produksinya, membuat pemasok menduga bahwa
harga relatifnya telah naik. Akibatnya pemasok akan
memproduksi lebih banyak output yang dihasilkannya.
Chapter Thirteen 11
.

Model INFORMASI TAK SEMPURNA ini
menyatakan bahwa bila harga aktual
melebihi harga yang diharapkan, para
pemasok meningkatkan output mereka
Chapter Thirteen 12
MODEL HARGA KAKU
Perusahaan menghadapi harga yang kaku.
Harga yang diinginkan perusahaan p
tergantung :
Tingkat harga keseluruhan P. P tgg, mk
biaya tgg, tingkat harga perusahaan makin
besar
Tingkat pendapatan agregat Y. Y tgg, AD
tgg, makin tgg harga yang diharapkan
perusahaan.
Chapter Thirteen 13
MODEL HARGA KAKU
Harga yang diinginkan perusahaan, p :
p = P + (Y - Y)
tergantung tingkat harga keseluruhan P dan
pada tingkat output agregat relative
terhadap tingkat alamiah Y Y.

Chapter Thirteen 14
So ?
Ke3 Model AS ini tidak saling
bertentangan, kita tidak perlu menerima
satu model dan menolak lainnya.
Chapter Thirteen 15
REFRESH
Semua bisa diringkas :
Y = Y + (P - Pe)
Output menyimpang dari tingkat alamiahnya bila
tingkat harga menyimpang dari harga yg
diharapkan
Jika tingkat harga lebih tgg dr harga yg
diharapkan, mk output melebihi tingkat alamiah.
Jika harga lebih rendah dr harga yg diharapkan,
mk output turun lebih rendah tingkat alamiah.
Chapter Thirteen 16
Gbr 13.2.

SRAS (P
e
=P
2
)
B
P
2
A'
Y'
SRAS (P
e
=P
0
)
P
Output
A
P
0

LRAS*
Y
AD
AD'
P
1
Chapter Thirteen 17
Pergeseran AD
Ttk A : ekuilibrium jangka panjang. AD secara
tidak diharapkan, harga naik P1 ke P2. Harga P2
diatas harga yang diharapkan Pe, output naik
secara temporer. Ekonomi bergerak dari A ke B.
Jangka panjang, harga yang diharapkan naik ke
P3e, AS jk pendek bergeser keatas, ekonomi
kembali ekuilibrium, ke tingkat alamiah.
.
Chapter Thirteen 18
13.2 INFLASI, PENGANGGURAN
DAN KURVA PHILLIPS
Kebijakan ek makro : inflasi rendah,
pengangguran rendah, tapi seringkali
bertentangan.
Misal Mll fiskal/moneter AD ditingkatkan.
Ekonomi bergerak sepanjang kurva AD ke titik
output lebih tgg dan harga lebih tgg. (Gbr 13.4.
Dari A ke B)
Output lebih tinggi, pengangguran lebih rendah.
Tingkat harga lebih tgg, berarti inflasi lebih tgg.
Chapter Thirteen 19
Tradeoff antara inflasi dan pengangguran :
kurva Phillips ; merupakan derivasi AS jk
pendek.

Chapter Thirteen 20

Tingkat inflasi tergantung :
Inflasi yang diharapkan
Deviasi pengangguran dari tingkat alamiah
(pengangguran siklis)
Guncangan penawaran
Persamaannya :
= e - ( - n) + v
inflasi = inflasi - ( X pengangguran siklis) +
guncangan yg diharapkan penawaran
= respon inflasi terhadap pengangguran siklis.
(tanda minus: pengangguran tgg, mengurangi inflasi)



Chapter Thirteen 21
Menderivasi kurva Phillips dari AS

P = Pe + (1-) (Y - Y)
Tambahkan guncangan penawaran,
menunjukkan peristiwa eksogen (mis
perubahan harga minyak dunia) mengubah
harga, menggeser AD jk pendek.
P = Pe + (1-) (Y - Y) + v
Chapter Thirteen 22
Merubah dari tk harga menjadi tk inflasi
(P- P-1) = (Pe - P-1) + (1-) (Y - Y) + v
= e + (1-) (Y - Y) + v
Chapter Thirteen 23
Okun Law
Beralih dari output ke pengangguran.
Hukum Okun:
Penyimpangan output dari tingkat alamiah
berbanding terbalik dengan penyimpangan
pengangguran dari tingkat alamiah. Maka :
(1-) (Y - Y) = - ( - n)
= e - ( - n) + v
Chapter Thirteen 24
Kv Phillips : pengangguran terkait dengan
pergerakan yang tidak diharapkan dalam
tingkat inflasi.
AS dan kv Phillips : 2 sisi mata uang yang
sama
Chapter Thirteen 25
EKSPEKTASI ADATIF DAN INERSIA
INFLASI
Penyebab inflasi yang diharapkan?
Orang membentuk ekspektasi inflasi berdasarkan
inflasi yang sedang diamati ( ekspektasi adaptif)
Misal : e = -1
Maka kurva Phillips :
= -1 - ( - n) + v1
Inflasi tergantung inflasi yang lalu, pengangguran
siklis dan guncangan penawaran.
.
Chapter Thirteen 26
EKSPEKTASI ADATIF DAN INERSIA
INFLASI
(tk pengangguran alamiah = NAIRU = Non-
Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment)
Simbol -1 menunjukkan bahwa inflasi memiliki
inersia. Yaitu akan terus bergerak jika tidak ada
sesuatu yang menghentikannya.
Inersia inflasi diinterpretasikan sebagai pergeseran
ke atas secara terus menerus dalam kv AD dan kv
AS
Chapter Thirteen 27
DUA PENYEBAB NAIK &
TURUNNYA INFLASI
Simbol kedua, ( - n) menunjukkan
penggangguran siklis (penyimpangan pengangguran
dari tingkat alamiah) memberi tekanan ke atas dank e
bawah pada inflasi. Pengangguran rendah inflasi ke
atas ; inflasi tarikan permintaan (inflasi karena
permintaan tinggi).
responsivitas inflasi trerhadap penganggurang siklis
Simbol ketiga, v menunjukkan
Inflasi juga naik dan turun karena guncangan
penawaran. Misalnya kenaikan harga minyak, nilai v
positif, inflasi naik. Disebut inflasi dorongan biaya.
Chapter Thirteen 28
TRADE-OFF JK PENDEK
INFLASI DAN PENGANGGURAN
Pembuat kebijakan mempengaruhi AD.
Inflasi yang diharapkan dan guncangan penawaran
bisa saja berada di luar kendali pembuat
kebijakan.
Namun dengan mengubah AD dapat mengubah
output, pengangguran dan inflasi.
Jadi pd kv Phillips jk pendek, dipilih kombinasi
inflasi dan pengangguran.
Gbr 13.3.
Chapter Thirteen 29
Gbr 13.3.

e + n
Unemployment, u

un
Chapter Thirteen 30
Posisi kurva Phillips jangka pendek
tergantung tingkat inflasi yang diharapkan.
Jika inflasi yang diharapkan naik, kurva
bergeser ke atas, trade-off kebijakan
menjadi kurang bernilai karena inflasi akan
lebih tinggi pada seluruh tingkat
pengangguran.
Chapter Thirteen 31
Gbr 13.4.
u
n

Unemployment, u
LRPC (u=u
n
)
5%
10%
SRPC (
e
=0%)
SRPC (
e
=10%)
SRPC (
e
=5%)
Chapter Thirteen 32
Jangka panjang : ekspektasi akan beradaptasi pada
setiap tingkat inflasi dipilih pembuat kebijakan,
pengangguran kembali ke tingkat alamiah, dan
tidak ada tradeoff antara inflasi dan pengangguran.
Disinflasi dan Rasio Pengorbanan
Menurunkan inflasi berapa output akan hilang?
Biaya ini bisa dibandingkan dengan manfaat
inflasi yang lebih rendah.
Rasio Pengorbanan: % GDP riil 1 tahun yang
harus dikorbankan untuk menurunkan inflasi 1%.

Chapter Thirteen 33
Concluding Remarks
Ada 3 model menerangkan AS jangka pendek
miring ke atas. Prediksinya sama : tradeoff jk
pendek antara inflasi dan pengangguran.
Cara mudah menganalisi melalui kurva Phillips,
yang menyatakan inflasi tergantung inflasi yang
diharapkan, pengangguran siklis dan guncangan
penawaran.
Chapter Thirteen 34

Chapter Thirteen 35
Labor, L
Y = F(L)
Income, Output, Y
Labor, L
L = L
d
(W/P)
Y=Y+a(P-P
e
)
An increase in the price level,
reduces the real wage for a given
nominal wage, which raises
employment and output and
income.
Chapter Thirteen 36
P = P
e
+ [(1-s)a/s](Y-Y)]
The two terms in this equation are explained as follows:
1) When firms expect a high price level, they expect high costs. Those
firms that fix prices in advance set their prices high. These high prices
cause the other firms to set high prices also. Hence, a high expected price
level P
e
leads to a high actual price level P.
2) When output is high, the demand for goods is high. Those firms
with flexible prices set their prices high, which leads to a high price level.
The effect of output on the price level depends on the proportion of firms
with flexible prices. Hence, the overall price level depends on the
expected price level and on the level of output. Algebraic rearrangement
puts this aggregate pricing equation into a more familiar form:

where a = s/[(1-s)a]. Like the other models, the sticky-price model says
that the deviation of output from the natural rate is positively associated
with the deviation of the price level from the expected price level.
Y = Y + a(P-P
e
)
Chapter Thirteen 37
Start at point A; the economy is at full employment Y and the
actual price level is P
0
. Here the actual price level equals the
expected price level. Now lets suppose we increase the price
level to P
1
.
Since P (the actual price level) is now greater than P
e
(the
expected price level) Y will rise above the natural rate, and we
slide along the SRAS

(P
e
=P
0
)

curve to A' .
Remember that our new SRAS

(P
e
=P
0
) curve is defined by the
presence of fixed expectations (in this case at P
0
). So in terms
of the SRAS equation, when P rises to P
1
, holding P
e
constant
at P
0
, Y must rise.
The long-run will be defined when the expected price level equals the actual price level. So, as price level
expectations adjust, P
e
P
2
, well end up on a new short-run aggregate supply curve, SRAS (P
e
=P
2
) at point
B.
Hooray! We made it back to LRAS, a situation characterized by perfect information where the actual price
level (now P
2
) equals the expected price level (also, P
2
).

Y = Y + a (P-P
e
)
Y = Y + a (P-P
e
)
Y = Y + a (P-P
e
)
In terms of the SRAS equation, we can see that as P
e
catches up with P, that entire expectations gap
disappears and we end up on the long run aggregate supply curve at full employment where Y = Y.
SRAS (P
e
=P
2
)
B
P
2
A'
Y'
SRAS (P
e
=P
0
)
P
Output
A
P
0

LRAS*
Y
AD
AD'
P
1
Chapter Thirteen 38
The Phillips curve in its modern form states that the inflation rate
depends on three forces:
1) Expected inflation
2) The deviation of unemployment from the natural rate, called
cyclical unemployment
3) Supply shocks

These three forces are expressed in the following equation:

p = p
e
-

b(m-m
n
) + n
Inflation
b Cyclical
Unemployment
Supply
Shock
Expected
Inflation
Chapter Thirteen 39
The Phillips-curve equation and the short-run aggregate supply equation
represent essentially the same macroeconomic ideas. Both equations
show a link between real and nominal variables that causes the
classical dichotomy (the theoretical separation of real and nominal
variables) to break down in the short run.

The Phillips curve and the aggregate supply curve are two sides of the
same coin. The aggregate supply curve is more convenient when
studying output and the price level, whereas the Phillips curve
is more convenient when studying unemployment and inflation.
Chapter Thirteen 40
To make the Phillips curve useful for analyzing the choices facing
policymakers, we need to say what determines expected inflation. A
simple often plausible assumption is that people form their expectations
of inflation based on recently observed inflation. This assumption is
called adaptive expectations. So, expected inflation p
e
equals last years
inflation p
-1
. In this case, we can write the Phillips curve as:


which states that inflation depends on past inflation, cyclical
unemployment, and a supply shock. When the Phillips curve is written in
this form, it is sometimes called the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of
Unemployment, or NAIRU.
The term p
-1
implies that inflation has inertia-- meaning that it keeps going
until something acts to stop it. In the model of AD/AS, inflation inertia
is interpreted as persistent upward shifts in both the aggregate supply
curve and aggregate demand curve. Because the position of the SRAS
will shift upwards overtime, it will continue to shift upward until
something changes inflation expectations.
p = p
-1

-

b(m-m
n
) + n
Chapter Thirteen 41
The second and third terms in the Phillips-curve equation show the two
forces that can change the rate of inflation. The second term, b(u-u
n
),
shows that cyclical unemployment exerts downward pressure on inflation.
Low unemployment pulls the inflation rate up. This is called
demand-pull inflation because high aggregate demand is responsible for
this type of inflation. High unemployment pulls the inflation rate down.
The parameter b measures how responsive inflation is to cyclical
unemployment. The third term, n shows that inflation also rises and falls
because of supply shocks. An adverse supply shock, such as the rise in
world oil prices in the 70s, implies a positive value of n and causes
inflation to rise.
This is called cost-push inflation because adverse supply shocks are
typically events that push up the costs of production. A beneficial
supply shock, such as the oil glut that led to a fall in oil prices in the
80s, makes n negative and causes inflation to fall.
Chapter Thirteen 42
u
n
p
Unemployment, u
p
e
+ n
In the short run, inflation and unemployment
are negatively related. At any point in time, a
policymaker who controls aggregate demand
can choose a combination of inflation and
unemployment on this short-run Phillips
curve.
Chapter Thirteen 43
u
n

Unemployment, u
LRPC (u=u
n
)
5%
10%
SRPC (
e
=0%)
SRPC (
e
=10%)
SRPC (
e
=5%)
D
B
C
E
Suppose there is an increase in the rate of growth of the money supply causing LM and AD to shift out
resulting in an unexpected increase in inflation. The Phillips curve equation =
e
b(u-u
n
) + v implies
that the change in inflation misperceptions causes unemployment to decline. So, the economy moves to a
point above full employment at point B.
A
As long as this inflation misperception exists, the economy will
remain below its natural rate u
n
at u'.
Lets start at point A, a point of price stability (=0%) and full employment (u=u
n
).
When the economic agents realize the new level of inflation, they
will end up on a new short-run Phillips curve where expected
inflation equals the new rate of inflation (5%) at point C, where
actual inflation (5%) equals expected inflation (5%).
Remember, each short-run Phillips curve is defined by the presence of fixed expectations.
If the monetary authorities opt to obtain a lower u again,
then they will increase the money supply such that is
10%, for example. The economy moves to point D, where
actual inflation is 10% but,
e
is 5%.
When expectations adjust, the
economy will land on a new SRPC, at
point E, where both and
e
equal
10%.
u
'
Chapter Thirteen 44
Rational expectations make the assumption that people optimally use all
the available information about current government policies, to forecast
the future. According to this theory, a change in monetary or fiscal
policy will change expectations, and an evaluation of any policy change
must incorporate this effect on expectations. If people do form their
expectations rationally, then inflation may have less inertia than it first
appears.
Proponents of rational expectations argue that the short-run Phillips
curve does not accurately represent the options that policymakers have
available. They believe that if policy makers are credibly committed to
reducing inflation, rational people will understand the commitment and
lower their expectations of inflation. Inflation can then come down
without a rise in unemployment and fall in output.
Chapter Thirteen 45
Our entire discussion has been based on the natural rate hypothesis.
The hypothesis is summarized in the following statement:

Fluctuations in aggregate demand affect output and employment only
in the short run. In the long run, the economy returns to the levels of
output,employment, and unemployment described by the classical model.

Recently, some economists have challenged the natural-rate hypothesis
by suggesting that aggregate demand may affect output and employment
even in the long run. They have pointed out a number of mechanisms
through which recessions might leave permanent scars on the economy
by altering the natural rate of unemployment. Hyteresis is the term
used to describe the long-lasting influence of history on the natural
rate.
Chapter Thirteen 46
Sticky-wage model
Imperfect-information model
Sticky-price model
Phillips curve
Adaptive expectations
Demand-pull inflation
Cost-push inflation
Sacrifice ratio
Rational expectations
Natural-rate hypothesis
Hyteresis