McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Chapter 2
Inventory
Management
and Risk Pooling
2-2
CASE: Steel Works
Background of case and intent
Overview of business
What does data tell you about Specialty?
How much inventory might you expect?
What opportunities are there for Custom?
Wrap up

Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-3
Background & Intent
Abstraction from summer consulting job
Intent is to examine a realistic, but
simplified inventory context and perform a
diagnosis of problem poor service and
too much inventory
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-4
Custom Products
Rapid growth, 1/3 of total sales ($133 MM)
One customer per product
Very high margins
High service level
3 plants, co-located with R&D center
Each product produced at a single plant
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-5
Specialty Products
Rapid growth, 2/3 of total sales ($267 MM)
6 product families
3 plants, each producing 2 product families
130 customers, 120 products
Few big customers
Highly volatile demand
High service level
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-6
Consultant Recommendation
Drop low volume products
Improve forecasts
Consolidate warehouses
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-7
What Does Data Tell You?
m s cv
DB R10 15.5 13.2 0.85
DB R12 1008 256 0.25
DB R15 2464 494 0.20
DF R10 97 92.5 0.95
DF R12 18.5 11.4 0.62
DF R15 55 80 1.46
DF R23 35.5 45.9 1.29
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-8
What Does Data Tell You?
Durabend R12:
One customer accounts for 97% of demand
7 products:
High volume (2) is not very volatile
Low volume (5) is very volatile
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-9
How Much Inventory Should
You Expect?
Assume base stock model with periodic
review
Review period = r = ?
Lead time = L = ?


2
E I r z r L
m
s
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-10
m s Cycle
stock
Saf.
stock
E[I] Act.
Inv.
DB R10 15.5 13.2 8 26 34 72
DB R12 1008 256 504 510 1014 740
DB R15 2464 494 1232 990 2222 1875
DF R10 97 92.5 49 185 234 604
DF R12 18.5 11.4 9 23 32 55
DF R15 55 80 28 160 188 388
DF R23 35.5 45.9 18 92 110 190
S
1848 1986 3834 3824
Assumes r = 1; L=0.25; and z = 1.8
Cycle stock = r m/2 Safety stock = z s r+L
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-11
What Are the Opportunities at
Custom?
Combine production and inventory for
common items, e. g. DF R23
Produce monthly: reduce setups by half
and pool safety stocks
Produce twice a month: same number of
setups but cut cycle stock and review
period in half
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-12
Wrap Up
Realistic diagnostic exercise
In real life: not as clean, more data and
more considerations
Yet simple models and principles can
provide valuable guidance
Stephen C. Graves Copyright 2003
All Rights Reserved
2-13
2.1 Introduction
Why Is Inventory Important?
Distribution and inventory (logistics) costs
are quite substantial
Total U.S. Manufacturing Inventories ($m):
1992-01-31: $m 808,773
1996-08-31: $m 1,000,774
2006-05-31: $m 1,324,108
Inventory-Sales Ratio (U.S. Manufacturers):
1992-01-01: 1.56
2006-05-01: 1.25
2-14
GMs production and distribution network
20,000 supplier plants
133 parts plants
31 assembly plants
11,000 dealers
Freight transportation costs: $4.1 billion (60% for
material shipments)
GM inventory valued at $7.4 billion (70%WIP; Rest
Finished Vehicles)
Decision tool to reduce:
combined corporate cost of inventory and transportation.
26% annual cost reduction by adjusting:
Shipment sizes (inventory policy)
Routes (transportation strategy)
Why Is Inventory Important?
2-15
Why Is Inventory Required?
Uncertainty in customer demand
Shorter product lifecycles
More competing products
Uncertainty in supplies
Quality/Quantity/Costs/Delivery Times
Delivery lead times
Incentives for larger shipments
2-16
Holding the right amount at the
right time is difficult!
Dell Computers was sharply off in its forecast of
demand, resulting in inventory write-downs
1993 stock plunge
Liz Claibornes higher-than-anticipated excess
inventories
1993 unexpected earnings decline,
IBMs ineffective inventory management
1994 shortages in the ThinkPad line
Ciscos declining sales
2001 $ 2.25B excess inventory charge
2-17
Inventory Management-Demand
Forecasts
Uncertain demand makes demand
forecast critical for inventory related
decisions:
What to order?
When to order?
How much is the optimal order quantity?
Approach includes a set of techniques
INVENTORY POLICY!!
2-18
Supply Chain Factors in Inventory
Policy
Estimation of customer demand
Replenishment lead time
The number of different products being considered
The length of the planning horizon
Costs
Order cost:
Product cost
Transportation cost
Inventory holding cost, or inventory carrying cost:
State taxes, property taxes, and insurance on inventories
Maintenance costs
Obsolescence cost
Opportunity costs
Service level requirements
2-19
2.2 Single Stage Inventory
Control
Single supply chain stage
Variety of techniques
Economic Lot Size Model
Demand Uncertainty
Single Period Models
Initial Inventory
Multiple Order Opportunities
Continuous Review Policy
Variable Lead Times
Periodic Review Policy
Service Level Optimization
2-20
2.2.1. Economic Lot Size Model
FIGURE 2-3: Inventory level as a function of time
2-21
Assumptions
D items per day: Constant demand rate
Q items per order: Order quantities are fixed, i.e., each
time the warehouse places an order, it is for Q items.
K, fixed setup cost, incurred every time the warehouse
places an order.
h, inventory carrying cost accrued per unit held in
inventory per day that the unit is held (also known as,
holding cost)
Lead time = 0
(the time that elapses between the placement of an
order and its receipt)
Initial inventory = 0
Planning horizon is long (infinite).
2-22
Deriving EOQ
Total cost at every cycle:

Average inventory holding cost in a cycle: Q/2
Cycle time T =Q/D
Average total cost per unit time:

2
hTQ
K
2
hQ
Q
KD

h
KD
Q
2
*

2-23
EOQ: Costs
FIGURE 2-4: Economic lot size model: total cost per unit time
2-24
Sensitivity Analysis
b .5 .8 .9 1 1.1 1.2 1.5 2
Increase
in cost
25% 2.5% 0.5% 0 .4% 1.6% 8.9% 25%
Total inventory cost relatively insensitive to order quantities

Actual order quantity: Q
Q is a multiple b of the optimal order quantity Q*.
For a given b, the quantity ordered is Q = bQ*
2-25
2.2.2. Demand Uncertainty
The forecast is always wrong
It is difficult to match supply and demand
The longer the forecast horizon, the worse the
forecast
It is even more difficult if one needs to predict
customer demand for a long period of time
Aggregate forecasts are more accurate.
More difficult to predict customer demand for
individual SKUs
Much easier to predict demand across all SKUs
within one product family
2-26
2.2.3. Single Period Models
Short lifecycle products
One ordering opportunity only
Order quantity to be decided before
demand occurs

Order Quantity > Demand => Dispose excess
inventory
Order Quantity < Demand => Lose sales/profits

2-27
Single Period Models
Using historical data
identify a variety of demand scenarios
determine probability each of these scenarios will
occur
Given a specific inventory policy
determine the profit associated with a particular
scenario
given a specific order quantity
weight each scenarios profit by the likelihood that it will occur
determine the average, or expected, profit for a particular
ordering quantity.
Order the quantity that maximizes the average
profit.
2-28
Single Period Model Example
FIGURE 2-5: Probabilistic forecast
2-29
Additional Information
Fixed production cost: $100,000
Variable production cost per unit: $80.
During the summer season, selling price:
$125 per unit.
Salvage value: Any swimsuit not sold
during the summer season is sold to a
discount store for $20.
2-30
Two Scenarios
Manufacturer produces 10,000 units while
demand ends at 12,000 swimsuits
Profit
= 125(10,000) - 80(10,000) - 100,000
= $350,000
Manufacturer produces 10,000 units while
demand ends at 8,000 swimsuits
Profit
= 125(8,000) + 20(2,000) - 80(10,000) - 100,000
= $140,000

2-31
Probability of Profitability Scenarios
with Production = 10,000 Units
Probability of demand being 8000 units =
11%
Probability of profit of $140,000 = 11%
Probability of demand being 12000 units =
27%
Probability of profit of $140,000 = 27%
Total profit = Weighted average of profit
scenarios

2-32
Order Quantity that Maximizes
Expected Profit
FIGURE 2-6: Average profit as a function of production quantity
2-33
Relationship Between Optimal
Quantity and Average Demand
Compare marginal profit of selling an additional unit and
marginal cost of not selling an additional unit

Marginal profit/unit =
Selling Price - Variable Ordering (or, Production) Cost

Marginal cost/unit =
Variable Ordering (or, Production) Cost - Salvage Value

If Marginal Profit > Marginal Cost => Optimal Quantity >
Average Demand
If Marginal Profit < Marginal Cost => Optimal Quantity <
Average Demand
2-34
For the Swimsuit Example
Average demand = 13,000 units.
Optimal production quantity = 12,000 units.

Marginal profit = $45
Marginal cost = $60.

Thus, Marginal Cost > Marginal Profit
=> optimal production quantity < average
demand.
2-35
Risk-Reward Tradeoffs
Optimal production quantity maximizes
average profit is about 12,000
Producing 9,000 units or producing 16,000
units will lead to about the same average
profit of $294,000.
If we had to choose between producing
9,000 units and 16,000 units, which one
should we choose?
2-36
Risk-Reward Tradeoffs
FIGURE 2-7: A frequency histogram of profit
2-37
Risk-Reward Tradeoffs
Production Quantity = 9000 units
Profit is:
either $200,000 with probability of about 11 %
or $305,000 with probability of about 89 %
Production quantity = 16,000 units.
Distribution of profit is not symmetrical.
Losses of $220,000 about 11% of the time
Profits of at least $410,000 about 50% of the time
With the same average profit, increasing the production
quantity:
Increases the possible risk
Increases the possible reward
2-38
Observations
The optimal order quantity is not
necessarily equal to forecast, or average,
demand.
As the order quantity increases, average
profit typically increases until the
production quantity reaches a certain
value, after which the average profit starts
decreasing.
Risk/Reward trade-off: As we increase the
production quantity, both risk and reward
increases.
2-39
2.2.4. What If the Manufacturer
Has an Initial Inventory?
Trade-off between:
Using on-hand inventory to meet demand and
avoid paying fixed production cost: need
sufficient inventory stock
Paying the fixed cost of production and not
have as much inventory


2-40
Initial Inventory Solution
FIGURE 2-8: Profit and the impact of initial inventory
2-41
Manufacturer Initial Inventory =
5,000
If nothing is produced, average profit =
225,000 (from the figure) + 5,000 x 80 = 625,000
If the manufacturer decides to produce
Production should increase inventory from 5,000 units
to 12,000 units.
Average profit =
371,000 (from the figure) + 5,000 80 = 771,000
2-42
No need to produce anything
average profit > profit achieved if we produce to
increase inventory to 12,000 units
If we produce, the most we can make on
average is a profit of $375,000.
Same average profit with initial inventory of 8,500
units and not producing anything.
If initial inventory < 8,500 units => produce to raise
the inventory level to 12,000 units.
If initial inventory is at least 8,500 units, we should not
produce anything
(s, S) policy or (min, max) policy
Manufacturer Initial Inventory =
10,000
2-43
2.2.5. Multiple Order
Opportunities
REASONS
To balance annual inventory holding costs and annual fixed order
costs.
To satisfy demand occurring during lead time.
To protect against uncertainty in demand.

TWO POLICIES
Continuous review policy
inventory is reviewed continuously
an order is placed when the inventory reaches a particular level or reorder point.
inventory can be continuously reviewed (computerized inventory systems are
used)

Periodic review policy
inventory is reviewed at regular intervals
appropriate quantity is ordered after each review.
it is impossible or inconvenient to frequently review inventory and place orders if
necessary.
2-44
2.2.6. Continuous Review Policy
Daily demand is random and follows a normal
distribution.
Every time the distributor places an order from the
manufacturer, the distributor pays a fixed cost, K, plus an
amount proportional to the quantity ordered.
Inventory holding cost is charged per item per unit time.
Inventory level is continuously reviewed, and if an order
is placed, the order arrives after the appropriate lead
time.
If a customer order arrives when there is no inventory on
hand to fill the order (i.e., when the distributor is stocked
out), the order is lost.
The distributor specifies a required service level.
2-45
AVG = Average daily demand faced by the
distributor
STD = Standard deviation of daily demand faced
by the distributor
L = Replenishment lead time from the supplier to
the
distributor in days
h = Cost of holding one unit of the product for
one day at the distributor
= service level. This implies that the probability
of stocking out is 1 -
Continuous Review Policy
2-46
(Q,R) policy whenever inventory level
falls to a reorder level R, place an order for
Q units
What is the value of R?
Continuous Review Policy
2-47
Continuous Review Policy
Average demand during lead time: L x
AVG
Safety stock:

Reorder Level, R:

Order Quantity, Q:
L STD z
L STD z AVG L
h
AVG K
Q

2
2-48
Service Level & Safety Factor, z
Service
Level
90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 99.9%
z 1.29 1.34 1.41 1.48 1.56 1.65 1.75 1.88 2.05 2.33 3.08
z is chosen from statistical tables to ensure
that the probability of stockouts during lead time is exactly 1 -
2-49
Inventory Level Over Time
L STD z
Inventory level before receiving an order =
Inventory level after receiving an order =
Average Inventory =
L STD z Q
L STD z
Q

2
FIGURE 2-9: Inventory level as a function of time in a (Q,R) policy
2-50
Continuous Review Policy Example
A distributor of TV sets that orders from a
manufacturer and sells to retailers
Fixed ordering cost = $4,500
Cost of a TV set to the distributor = $250
Annual inventory holding cost = 18% of
product cost
Replenishment lead time = 2 weeks
Expected service level = 97%
2-51
Month Sept Oct Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug
Sales 200 152 100 221 287 176 151 198 246 309 98 156
Continuous Review Policy
Example
Average monthly demand = 191.17
Standard deviation of monthly demand = 66.53

Average weekly demand = Average Monthly Demand/4.3
Standard deviation of weekly demand = Monthly standard deviation/4.3

2-52
Parameter Average weekly
demand
Standard
deviation of
weekly demand
Average
demand
during lead
time
Safety
stock
Reorder
point
Value 44.58 32.08 89.16 86.20 176
87 . 0
52
250 18 . 0

Weekly holding cost =

Optimal order quantity = 679
87 .
58 . 44 500 , 4 2

Q
Average inventory level = 679/2 + 86.20 = 426
Continuous Review Policy
Example
2-53
Average lead time, AVGL
Standard deviation, STDL.
Reorder Level, R:

2 2 2
STDL AVG STD AVGL z AVGL AVG R
2.2.7. Variable Lead Times
2 2 2
STDL AVG STD AVGL z
Amount of safety stock=
h
AVG K
Q

2
Order Quantity =
2-54
Inventory level is reviewed periodically at regular
intervals
An appropriate quantity is ordered after each review
Two Cases:
Short Intervals (e.g. Daily)
Define two inventory levels s and S
During each inventory review, if the inventory position falls below s,
order enough to raise the inventory position to S.
(s, S) policy
Longer Intervals (e.g. Weekly or Monthly)
May make sense to always order after an inventory level review.
Determine a target inventory level, the base-stock level
During each review period, the inventory position is reviewed
Order enough to raise the inventory position to the base-stock level.
Base-stock level policy
2.2.8. Periodic Review Policy
2-55
(s,S) policy
Calculate the Q and R values as if this
were a continuous review model
Set s equal to R
Set S equal to R+Q.

2-56
Base-Stock Level Policy
Determine a target inventory level, the base-
stock level
Each review period, review the inventory
position is reviewed and order enough to raise
the inventory position to the base-stock level
Assume:
r = length of the review period
L = lead time
AVG = average daily demand
STD = standard deviation of this daily demand.
2-57
Average demand during an interval of r + L
days=


Safety Stock=
L r STD z
AVG L r ) (
Base-Stock Level Policy
2-58
Base-Stock Level Policy
FIGURE 2-10: Inventory level as a function of time in a periodic
review policy
2-59
Assume:
distributor places an order for TVs every 3 weeks
Lead time is 2 weeks
Base-stock level needs to cover 5 weeks
Average demand = 44.58 x 5 = 222.9
Safety stock =
Base-stock level = 223 + 136 = 359
Average inventory level =

Distributor keeps 5 (= 203.17/44.58) weeks of supply.
Base-Stock Level Policy
Example
5 8 . 32 9 . 1
17 . 203 5 08 . 32 9 . 1
2
58 . 44 3

2-60
Optimal inventory policy assumes a
specific service level target.
What is the appropriate level of service?
May be determined by the downstream
customer
Retailer may require the supplier, to maintain a
specific service level
Supplier will use that target to manage its own
inventory
Facility may have the flexibility to choose the
appropriate level of service
2.2.9. Service Level
Optimization
2-61
Service Level Optimization
FIGURE 2-11:
Service level
inventory versus
inventory level as
a function of lead
time
2-62
Trade-Offs
Everything else being equal:
the higher the service level, the higher the
inventory level.
for the same inventory level, the longer the
lead time to the facility, the lower the level of
service provided by the facility.
the lower the inventory level, the higher the
impact of a unit of inventory on service level
and hence on expected profit
2-63
Retail Strategy
Given a target service level across all
products determine service level for each
SKU so as to maximize expected profit.
Everything else being equal, service level
will be higher for products with:
high profit margin
high volume
low variability
short lead time
2-64
Profit Optimization and Service
Level
FIGURE 2-12: Service level optimization by SKU
2-65
Target inventory level = 95% across all
products.
Service level > 99% for many products
with high profit margin, high volume and
low variability.
Service level < 95% for products with low
profit margin, low volume and high
variability.
Profit Optimization and Service
Level
2-66
2.3 Risk Pooling
Demand variability is reduced if one
aggregates demand across locations.
More likely that high demand from one
customer will be offset by low demand
from another.
Reduction in variability allows a decrease
in safety stock and therefore reduces
average inventory.
2-67
Demand Variation
Standard deviation measures how much
demand tends to vary around the average
Gives an absolute measure of the variability
Coefficient of variation is the ratio of
standard deviation to average demand
Gives a relative measure of the variability,
relative to the average demand
2-68
Acme Risk Pooling Case
Electronic equipment manufacturer and
distributor
2 warehouses for distribution in New York and
New Jersey (partitioning the northeast market
into two regions)
Customers (that is, retailers) receiving items
from warehouses (each retailer is assigned a
warehouse)
Warehouses receive material from Chicago
Current rule: 97 % service level
Each warehouse operate to satisfy 97 % of
demand (3 % probability of stock-out)
2-69
Replace the 2 warehouses with a single
warehouse (located some suitable place) and
try to implement the same service level 97 %
Delivery lead times may increase
But may decrease total inventory investment
considerably.
New Idea
2-70
Historical Data
PRODUCT A
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Massachusetts 33 45 37 38 55 30 18 58
New Jersey 46 35 41 40 26 48 18 55
Total 79 80 78 78 81 78 36 113
PRODUCT B
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Massachusetts 0 3 3 0 0 1 3 0
New Jersey 2 4 3 0 3 1 0 0
Total 2 6 3 0 3 2 3 0
2-71
Summary of Historical Data
Statistics Product Average Demand Standard
Deviation of
Demand
Coefficient of
Variation
Massachusetts A 39.3 13.2 0.34
Massachusetts B 1.125 1.36 1.21
New Jersey A 38.6 12.0 0.31
New Jersey B 1.25 1.58 1.26
Total A 77.9 20.71 0.27
Total B 2.375 1.9 0.81
2-72
Inventory Levels
Product Average
Demand
During Lead
Time
Safety Stock Reorder
Point
Q
Massachusetts A 39.3 25.08 65 132
Massachusetts B 1.125 2.58 4 25
New Jersey A 38.6 22.8 62 31
New Jersey B 1.25 3 5 24
Total A 77.9 39.35 118 186
Total B 2.375 3.61 6 33
2-73
Savings in Inventory
Average inventory for Product A:
At NJ warehouse is about 88 units
At MA warehouse is about 91 units
In the centralized warehouse is about 132 units
Average inventory reduced by about 36 percent
Average inventory for Product B:
At NJ warehouse is about 15 units
At MA warehouse is about 14 units
In the centralized warehouse is about 20 units
Average inventory reduced by about 43 percent
2-74
The higher the coefficient of variation, the greater the
benefit from risk pooling
The higher the variability, the higher the safety stocks
kept by the warehouses. The variability of the demand
aggregated by the single warehouse is lower
The benefits from risk pooling depend on the behavior of
the demand from one market relative to demand from
another
risk pooling benefits are higher in situations where
demands observed at warehouses are negatively
correlated
Reallocation of items from one market to another
easily accomplished in centralized systems. Not
possible to do in decentralized systems where
they serve different markets
Critical Points
2-75
2.4 Centralized vs.
Decentralized Systems
Safety stock: lower with centralization
Service level: higher service level for the same
inventory investment with centralization
Overhead costs: higher in decentralized system
Customer lead time: response times lower in the
decentralized system
Transportation costs: not clear. Consider
outbound and inbound costs.

2-76
Inventory decisions are given by a single
decision maker whose objective is to
minimize the system-wide cost
The decision maker has access to inventory
information at each of the retailers and at the
warehouse
Echelons and echelon inventory
Echelon inventory at any stage or level of
the system equals the inventory on hand
at the echelon, plus all downstream
inventory (downstream means closer to
the customer)

2.5 Managing Inventory in the
Supply Chain
2-77
Echelon Inventory
FIGURE 2-13: A serial supply chain
2-78
Reorder Point with Echelon
Inventory
L
e
= echelon lead time,
lead time between the retailer and the
distributor plus the lead time between the
distributor and its supplier, the wholesaler.
AVG = average demand at the retailer
STD = standard deviation of demand at
the retailer
Reorder point

e e
L STD z AVG L R
2-79
4-Stage Supply Chain Example
Average weekly demand faced by the
retailer is 45
Standard deviation of demand is 32
At each stage, management is attempting
to maintain a service level of 97% (z=1.88)
Lead time between each of the stages,
and between the manufacturer and its
suppliers is 1 week
2-80
Costs and Order Quantities
K D H Q
retailer 250 45 1.2 137
distributor 200 45 .9 141
wholesaler 205 45 .8 152
manufacturer 500 45 .7 255
2-81
Reorder Points at Each Stage
For the retailer, R=1*45+1.88*32*1 = 105
For the distributor, R=2*45+1.88*32*2 =
175
For the wholesaler, R=3*45+1.88*32*3 =
239
For the manufacturer, R=4*45+1.88*32*4
= 300
2-82
More than One Facility at Each
Stage
Follow the same approach
Echelon inventory at the warehouse is the
inventory at the warehouse, plus all of the
inventory in transit to and in stock at each of the
retailers.
Similarly, the echelon inventory position at the
warehouse is the echelon inventory at the
warehouse, plus those items ordered by the
warehouse that have not yet arrived minus all
items that are backordered.
2-83
Warehouse Echelon Inventory
FIGURE 2-14: The warehouse echelon inventory
2-84
2.6 Practical Issues
Periodic inventory review.
Tight management of usage rates, lead times, and
safety stock.
Reduce safety stock levels.
Introduce or enhance cycle counting practice.
ABC approach.
Shift more inventory or inventory ownership to
suppliers.
Quantitative approaches.
FOCUS: not reducing costs but reducing inventory levels.
Significant effort in industry to increase inventory turnover

Level Inventory Average
Sales Annual
Ratio Turnover Inventory
_ _
_
_ _
2-85
Inventory Turnover Ratios for
Different Manufacturers
Industry Upper quartile Median Lower quartile
Electronic components
and accessories
8.1 4.9 3.3
Electronic computers 22.7 7.0 2.7
Household audio and
video equipment
6.3 3.9 2.5
Paper Mills 11.7 8.0 5.5
Industrial chemicals 14.1 6.4 4.2
Bakery products 39.7 23.0 12.6
Books: Publishing and
printing
7.2 2.8 1.5
2-86
2.7 Forecasting
RULES OF FORECASTING
The forecast is always wrong.
The longer the forecast horizon, the
worse the forecast.
Aggregate forecasts are more accurate.
2-87
Utility of Forecasting
Part of the available tools for a manager
Despite difficulties with forecasts, it can be
used for a variety of decisions
Number of techniques allow prudent use
of forecasts as needed
2-88
Techniques
Judgment Methods
Sales-force composite
Experts panel
Delphi method
Market research/survey
Time Series
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Trends
Regression
Holts method
Seasonal patterns Seasonal decomposition
Trend + Seasonality Winters Method
Causal Methods
2-89
The Most Appropriate
Technique(s)
Purpose of the forecast
How will the forecast be used?
Dynamics of system for which forecast will
be made
How accurate is the past history in
predicting the future?
2-90
SUMMARY
Matching supply with demand a major challenge
Forecast demand is always wrong
Longer the forecast horizon, less accurate the
forecast
Aggregate demand more accurate than
disaggregated demand
Need the most appropriate technique
Need the most appropriate inventory policy