IGBP SCIENCE IN

PAKISTAN

By

Dr. Amir Muhammed

Chairman,
Pakistan National IGBP Committee
 PAKISTAN
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION
 SOCIO-ECONOMIC
 PROFILE 149 million
Population:
Growth Rate: 2.06%
 Literacy rate: 51%
Male 53%
Female 29%

 GDP (per capita): $492

 Population below poverty line:32%
Urban 22%
Rural 39%
 Health Expenditure 0.7% of GDP
 Rural population access to;
Safe drinking water: 48%
Sanitation: 23%
 CLIMATE
Mostly Arid and Semi arid; temperate
in the North west
Hot dry summers,
Temperatures upto 530c (1270 F)

Rainfall
Annual average (weighted): 278 mm
•South: 80 - 200 mm
•North: 250 – 1600 mm

Monsoon Share: 49%

TEMPERATURE
RAINFALL
 AGRICULTURE
 Largest sector of Economy (24% of GDP)

68% population rural; directly or indirectly

depends on agriculture

Industries almost entirely agro based

>80% exports agro based

Predominantly depends on irrigation

IRRIGATION NETWORK
WATER AVAILABILITY
RECENT TRENDS IN
CLIMATE CHANGE
Drought in Pakistan for last three
years

Forecast for continued dry weather in

arid areas of the sub-continent

Extremes getting severe-intense short

duration rains, prolonged dry spells
IMPACT ON RAINFALL &
WARMING
Historical comparison (1930-60 & 1960-90)
 Rise in mean temp. of 0.5-1.00C in arid
coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper
arid plains
 10-15% decrease in rainfall in above
regions
 15-35% increase in rainfall in monsoon
zone
 0.5 to 0.75% Increase in solar radiation
in Balochistan and Southern Pakistan
 1-2% decrease in cloud cover in central
Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours
 IMPACT ON WATER
RESOURCES AND ECONOMY
 Less snowfall, slow deposits & glacierization

 Reduced river flows

 Reduction in storage of water in dams

 Less rainfall in arid areas, prolonged droughts

Air Pollution
• Number of vehicles jumped from less than one million to
about 4 million during last 20 years
• Av. Suspended particulate matter in major cities 6 times
higher than WHO standard

Water Pollution
• Existing water resources under threat due to untreated
discharge of municipal and industrial wastes. (Pak-EPA
study: Biological Oxygen Demand of river Ravi (Lahore)was 300
mg/litre (9 mg/l is acceptable)
• Increasing use of agro-chemicals polluting river and
underground water
• Drinking water unfit for human consumption in most
cities
Industrial Pollution
• Imports 525 types of chemicals for processing
industries, in addition to locally produced

• Processing generates wastes & poses risk to

public health, land, water and marine resources

• Kasur Tanneries discharging effluent with chrome

concn. of > 200 mg/litre (standard 1 mg/l) and
COD of >7000/l ( limit 150 mg/l)
Marine Pollution
• Karachi generates 280 mn gallons of domestic and
industrial waste daily. 80% untreated waste from 6000
industrial units discharged into sea

• 8,000T garbage generated daily in Karachi, dumped

randomly at various locations. Some finds its way into sea

• Karachi harbour area, including marine channel, is one of

the most oil-polluted area along the coast of Pakistan

• Serious threat to marine environment, fisheries and

mangrove resources, affecting poor coastal population.

Loss of Biodiversity
 R&D EXPENDITURE
3.5
3
2.5
% of GNP

2 Total
1.5 Private Sector
1
0.5
0
Japan Korea India Pakistan

Source: PCST Publications, “S&T Potential 1990” & “S&T Indicators of Pakistan, 1999”.
UNESCO Year Book 1999
 R&D MANPOWER
3000

2500
Per Million Population

2000 1996-97
1500

1000

500

0
S ingapore Korea India Malays ia Pak is tan

Source: UNESCO Year Book 1999

SCIENCE LEARNED BODIES
 Pakistan Academy of Sciences

 Pakistan Association for

Advancement of Science

 Scientific Society of Pakistan

 IGBP COMMITTEE OF
PAKISTAN
 Dr. Amir Muhammed: Agriculture
 Dr. M.D. Shami Chemical Technology
 Prof. Iftikar Malik Medical (Pathology)
 Mr. Tajammal H. Hashmi Engineering
 Dr. Iqbal Hussain Quershi Chemistry
 Prof. Dr. M.Suhail Zubairy Electronics
 Prof. Dr. M.Qasim Jan Geology
 Dr. Qamaruzzaman Meteorology
 INSTITUTIONS RELEVANT
TO GC RESEARCH
 Pakistan Council for Scientific & Industrial
Research
 Pakistan Agriculture Research Council
 Pak. Council for Res. in Water Resources
 Water and Power Development Authority
 National Institute of Oceanography
 Pakistan Meteorological Department
 Global Change Impact Studies Centre
 GC SCIENCE PROJECTS
 Water Resources in South Asia – An assessment of Climate Change associated
vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms” APN 2003-4 (Pakistan, Bangladesh, India,
Nepal,USA)

 Global Change impact assessment for Himalayan Mountain Region for Environmental
Management and Sustainable Development” APN #2003-3 (Nepal, India, Pakistan)
 Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes and the identification of Potential Glacial Lake
Outburst Floods (GLOFs) affected by Global Warming in the Mountains
APN #2003-5 (Nepal, Pakistan, India, China, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea)

 An assessment of nutrient, sediment and carbon fluxes to the coastal zone in South
Asia and their relationship to human activities-(APN #2001-20) : (Srilanka,
Pakistan, India, Nepal, USA, Australia)

 Management Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Mixed Cropping Systems of

South Asia's Semi-Arid Tropics (CLIMAG) APN #2000-17 ( Australia, India, Pakistan,
USA)

 South Asian Regional Experiment to Characterize and Evaluate Physiological

Response of Rice Varieties to CO2 Enrichment. APN #2000-08 (India, Bangladesh,,
Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka)
 APN Networking & Capacity Building Workshop#2000-NC02 ( Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Nepal, Sri Lanka)
 PROPOSAL FOR STRENGTHENING
IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN
 Sensitize policy makers to importance of GC studies
 Establish focal point for GC aspects in M/0 Environment
 Regional and national capacity building workshops
 Establish education programs in environmental science
 Incorporate GC concerns in curricula
 Graduate course on GC science in region (AIT Bangkok?)
 Enhance capacity for science-based GC studies
 Support collab. research with developed country scientists
 Encourage visiting scientist program for young scientists