CONFIDENCE

INTERVALS
By: Asst. Prof. Xandro Alexi A. Nieto
UST Faculty of Pharmacy
BEFORE DISCUSSING THE
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL, WE HAVE TO
CONSIDER WHAT WE CALL,
the STANDARD ERROR of THE
MEAN.
Standard Error of the Mean (SE
X
)
Suppose that random samples are taken from a
normal distribution with mean and standard
deviation . Then the random samples x
1
, x
2
, x
3
,
, x
k
will have a mean x
1
. Then another set of
random samples are taken from the same
distribution, it will have a mean x
2
. If random
samples are drawn repeatedly from the same
distribution, then there will be a set of means. The
standard deviation of those set of means is called
the standard error of the mean [denoted by SEM
or SE
x
].

SE
x


n
Mathematically, the standard error of the mean may be computed using and n.
Standard error (example)
Suppose a researcher gathered 16 random samples from a
population with normal distribution whose standard
deviation is 8. The samples drawn have a mean of 35.
Then the standard error of the mean is computed as:
SE
x


n

8
16
2
Meaning, if he get the 16 samples from a normal distribution
with standard deviation of 8, and the mean of the first set of
random samples is x
1
, and he get another set of samples and
got a mean of x
2
,

and he get another set of samples and got a
mean of x
3
and so on, then the standard deviation of 35, x
2
,
x
3
, , x
k
is 2.

TRY THIS!
A researcher wants to determine the average IQ
of UST Faculty of Pharmacy students. Suppose
that the IQ of these students are normally
distributed with mean and standard deviation of
30. Due to time constraints, he collected 200
randomly selected students and found a mean of
115. What is the standard error of the mean?
12 . 2
200
30
~ =
x
SE
What is the use of the standard error
of the mean?
The standard error of the mean works like
the ordinary standard deviation. The
difference is that, the standard deviation (s
or ) came from a set of observations.
Whereas, the standard error of the mean
came from set of means (of a single
population). Thus, standard error of the
mean may give us the dispersion of the
normal distribution, just like the ordinary
standard deviation.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
OF SINGLE MEAN
In research, it may be hard to get the exact
value of the population mean due
different constraints. However, it may be
estimated through the randomly selected
samples.
Confidence interval will, then, give us the
interval estimate for by setting a lower
bound and upper bound.
In statistical theory, x is an unbiased
estimate of .
From the example given a while ago, if the
researcher wants to estimate the IQ of ALL
UST Faculty of Pharmacy students
through the randomly selected samples, he
must give a range of his estimate.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
OF SINGLE MEAN
From my randomly selected
samples, the mean IQ of ALL the
UST Faculty of Pharmacy
students is 110.85 to 119.16 at
95% confidence interval.
From my randomly selected samples, the mean IQ of ALL
the UST Faculty of Pharmacy students is 110.85 to
119.16 at 95% confidence interval.
- The Researcher
Note that the researchers estimate of the population mean has a lower
bound (110.85) and an upper bound (119.16). That is the confidence
interval!

But how did he get 110.85 to 119.16?
The 95% in his statement, means that he is 95% confident of getting
the true value of the population mean. In other words, he has 0.95
probability of getting the exact value of the population mean. On the
contrary, it follows that he has 0.05 probability of not getting the exact
value of the population mean.

Suppose the IQ of all the students are normally
distributed, with mean and standard deviation .

Since the researcher wants to make a 0.95 probability of
making correct statement, the estimate must be 95%
around the mean.
area = 0.95
Based on the Area Under the Normal Curve table,
the area between z = - 1.96 and z = 1.96 is 0.95
z = - 1.96 z = 1.96
From previous discussions we have learned that
o

=
x
z
Since we are concerned about how a population mean will be estimated by
getting sample means x
1
, x
2
,,x
k
we will replace x by x.

And since SE is the standard deviation of the means of randomly selected
samples, we may replace by the standard error of the mean (SE
x
. So,

z
x
SE
x

n

z = - 1.96 z = 1.96
Going back to the problem, a researcher wants to determine the average IQ of UST
Faculty of Pharmacy students. Suppose that the IQ of these students are normally
distributed with mean and standard deviation of 30. Due to time constraints, he collected
200 randomly selected students and found a mean of 115.
a) What is the standard error
of the mean?
SE
x


n

30
200
2.12

z = - 1.96 z = 1.96
Going back to the problem, a researcher wants to determine the average IQ of UST
Faculty of Pharmacy students. Suppose that the IQ of these students are normally
distributed with mean and standard deviation of 30. Due to time constraints, he collected
200 randomly selected students and found a mean of 115.
b) What is the confidence interval?
Given that x = 115, SE = 2.12, then at
z = -1.96, find .
z
x
SE
x
t1.96
115
2.12
115 (t1.96)(2.12)
100.85 to 119.16

z = - 1.96 z = 1.96
So, at 95% confidence interval, the population mean
is 110.85 to 119.16.
Going back to the problem, a researcher wants to determine the average IQ of UST
Faculty of Pharmacy students. Suppose that the IQ of these students are normally
distributed with mean and standard deviation of 30. Due to time constraints, he collected
200 randomly selected students and found a mean of 115.
In general,
To estimate of a normal distribution,

x t z

n

,
at 90% confidence interval, use z = 1.645
at 95% confidence interval, use z = 1.96
at 99% confidence interval, use z = 2.575
where x is the mean of the n
randomly selected samples from a
normal distribution with standard
deviation .
NOW TRY THESE PROBLEMS!
John wanted to estimate the mean daily allowances (in
Philippine peso) of all the UST students. The daily
allowances are normally distributed with standard
deviation of 30 pesos. He performed a multi-stage
random sampling technique to gather 500 samples and
found that the mean is 125 pesos.
At 95% confidence
interval, estimate the
mean of all
the UST students.
From the given, x =125, = 30, n = 500.
Since the problem asks for 95% confidence
interval, use z = 1.96.
x t1.96

n

63 . 2 125
500
30
96 . 1 125
=
|
.
|

\
|
=

Thus at 95% confidence

interval, the mean allowance of
the UST students is 122.37 to
127.63 pesos.
Another one!
The viscosity of a liquid detergent is
normally distributed, with = 45, when
measured at 25C. A random sample of 36
batches of detergent is collected, and found
that the mean viscosity is 812 centistokes.
At 90% confidence interval, estimate
the mean viscosity of all the
liquid detergents.
From the given, x =812, = 45, n = 36.
Since the problem asks for 90% confidence
interval, use z = 1.645.
x t1.645

n

812t1.645
45
36

812t12.38
799.66 to 824.38
Thus at 90% confidence
interval, the mean viscosity of
the liquid
detergents
at 25C is
799.66 to
824.38
centistokes.
Another one!
Suppose that the density of a brick is normally distributed with = 0.19
g/cm
3.
Densities were measured at a specific firing temperature. Twenty
(20) samples were taken and found a mean of 21.3 g/cm
3
. At 99%
confidence interval, estimate the density of all the bricks at that firing
temperature.
If you got 21.19 to 21.41 g/cm
3
, then you are correct!


What is the use of confidence
interval?
Knowing the confidence interval will determine whether a
hypothesis is correct or incorrect. Going back to the previous
problems,
a researcher found, from randomly selected samples, that
the mean IQ of ALL the UST Faculty of Pharmacy
students is 110.85 to 119.16 at 95% confidence interval.
If that researcher hypothesized that the mean IQ of UST Faculty of
Pharmacy students is 112? Is he correct?
Since at 95% confidence interval, we know that 110.85 to 119.16
is the mean IQ of all UST Faculty of Pharmacy students, and
his hypothesized value (112) is within the confidence interval,
then most probably he is correct.
What is the use of confidence
interval?
Knowing the confidence interval will determine whether a
hypothesis is correct or incorrect. Going back to the previous
problems,
a researcher found, from randomly selected samples, that
the mean IQ of ALL the UST Faculty of Pharmacy
students is 110.85 to 119.16 at 95% confidence interval.
However, if that researcher hypothesized that the mean IQ of UST Faculty
of Pharmacy students is 120? Is he correct?
Since at 95% confidence interval, we know that 110.85 to 119.16
is the mean IQ of all UST Faculty of Pharmacy students, and his
hypothesized value (120) is NOT within the confidence interval,
then most probably he is incorrect.
If prior to his data gathering, he hypothesized that the mean allowance of
the UST students is 125 pesos, was he correct?
Since at 95% confidence interval, he estimated that the mean allowance of
the UST students is 122.37 to 127.63 pesos, then most probably he is
correct.
At 95% confidence interval, John
estimated that the mean allowance
of the UST students is 122.37 to
127.63 pesos.

However, if he hypothesized that the mean allowance of the UST
students is 150 pesos, then most probably he is incorrect.
Note that out of the samples, we are
we are just estimating on
the best way we can.
It is only upon getting the exact
value of will a researcher be sure if
his hypothesis is correct or not.
This is the reason why in the previous examples, we are using most probably
to set a probable error of, still, making wrong conclusions.