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org
TEN-T CNC Rhine Danube
Corridor study

Second Corridor Forum


Part 3: Outline of Transport Market Study


Menno Menist, Panteia
18. June 2014
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Outline
Objectives of the multimodal TMS
Methodology
Current socio-economic framework
Next steps

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Objectives of the multimodal TMS
The multimodal Transport Market Study (TMS) main objective is to identify the
current and prospective transport needs in Rhine Danube Corridor from the
demand and supply perspectives.
Demand-wise, the study will provide information on how the traffic will evolve,
which commodities will grow and which modes will be favoured.
Supply-wise, the TMS will assess whether the existing capacity is able to cope
with the expected demand growth; this analysis will, additionally, incorporate
ongoing and planned measures, up to 2030.
The TMS will also, examine the multimodal performance of the Corridor.
The study will identify existing barriers for currently low-utilised modes, and how
multimodal solutions could be further adopted in the Corridor.

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Methodology
The multimodal TMS will be broken down into three steps:
The development of the macroeconomic framework
Definition of the catchment area
Analysis of transport-related external drivers such as GDP, population,
urbanisation (2010-2030)
The analysis of transport demand (2010-2030)
Focus on cross-border freight flows
The analysis of transport supply characteristics (2010-2030)
For the network and the nodes

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Current socio-economic framework (1)
The Rhine Danube Corridor catchment area









Source: Panteia



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Current socio-economic framework (2)
The GDP in million (NUTS3, 2010 values)

Source: ETISplus (2010)
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Current socio-economic framework (3)
The population and population (in 1000 persons)
density (persons/ km2) / NUTS3, 2010 values









Source: ETISplus (2010)


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Next steps (1)
Demand-side analysis (2010)
The main focus will be the international, cross-border
freight / passenger transport flows
Basis: 2010 ETISplus origin-destination transport flows
(NST2 commodities, all modes)
Additionally, we will consider aggregated volumes:
Entering/ exiting Rhine -Danube Corridor
Domestic flows

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Next steps (2)
Demand-side analysis (2030)
Based on national projections and other EU studies, e.g. the EU Reference
Scenario (2013)
Remark: The outcomes of the 2030 analysis should be cautiously considered due
to possible inconsistencies between the national models methodologies as well
as the different outputs (e.g. tonne-km, tonnes but also different commodities
etc.)
Mitigating action: the Consultants will provide growth ranges, based on the
literature review (not only from EU and national sources, but also port
studies) in order to depict the freight potential

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Next steps (3)
Supply-side analysis
The current supply characteristics are defined for links and nodes as part of the
corridor.
The focus of the analysis will be the network capacity (average and maximum)
Combined with the prospective transport demand, the analysis will provide
information on possible future capacity bottlenecks
Other supply characteristics which will be analysis are:
Different types of transport costs
Transport times
Administrative and organizational features

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Next steps (4)
Combination of supply and demand characteristics
The demand forecasting will provide insight on how the demand and
commodities will evolve
The supply characteristics will be the determinants of the mode choice.
Barriers causing low utilisation of modes as part of multimodal
transport will be identified
Recommendations on how multimodal solutions could be
further adopted in the Corridor will be provided