P(P ∩ L)
b) P(L | P) =
P(P)
P(P | L)P(L)
=
P(P)
0.08(0.3)
=
0.054
4
=
9
2.116 4 men, 5 women, choose 3 committees
A A
B C B C
c) (A ∩ C ) ∪ B
B C
2.123
Let A ~ consulting firm A
B ~ consulting firm B
C ~ consulting firm C
O ~ cost overrun
0 .4 P(O’ | A) = 0.95
=
( A)
P
P(O | B) = 0.03
= 0. 35
P( B )
P(O’ | B) = 0.97
P(C
) =0 P(O | C) = 0.15
.25
P(O’ | C) = 0.85
P(O) = P(O | A) • P(A) + P(O | B) • P(B) + P(O | C) • P(C)
= 0.05 (0.40) + 0.03 (0.35) + 0.15 (0.25)
= 0.068
P(C ∩ O) P(A ∩ O)
a) P(C | O) = b) P(A | O) =
P(O) P(O)
P(O | C) P(C) P(O | A) P(A)
= =
P(O) P(O)
0.15 (0.25) 0.05 (0.40)
= =
0.068 0.068
= 0.5515 = 0.2941
2.124 3 temperatures 4 cooking times 3 oils
.0 2
= 0 P(E ∩ 1) = P(E | 1) P(1) = 0.02 × 0.7 = 0.014
)
|1
P (E
0 .7
) =
P ( 1 P(E’ | 1) = 0.9
8
.04
P(E | 2) = 0 P(E ∩ 2) = P(E | 2) P(2) = 0.04 × 0.3 = 0.012
P(2
)=
0. 3
P(E
’|2
)=
0.9
6
P(E) = P(E ∩ 1) + P(E ∩ 2)
= 0.014 + 0.012
= 0.026
P(E ∩ 1) 0.014
P(1 | E) = = = 0.5385
P(E) 0.026
P(E ∩ 2) 0.012
P(2 | E) = = = 0.4615
P(E) 0.026
P(A) = 0.10
P(B) = 0.15
P(A ∩ B) = 0.02
P(T ∩ M)
P(T | M) =
P(M)
P(M | T)P(T)
=
P(M | T)P(T) + P(M | T' )P(T' )
0.90(0.5)
=
0.90(0.5) + 0.65(0.5)
0.45
= = 0.5806
0.775
2.133 Let D ~ dissatisfied
A ~ purchase from vendor A
P(A | D) P(D)
P(D | A) =
P(A)
0.50 (0.10 )
=
0.20
= 0.25
2.134
Union Nonunion TOTAL
Same Company 40 15 55
New Company 13 10 23
(same field)
New field 4 11 15
Unemployed 2 5 7
TOTAL 59 41 100
Let U ~ union member
NS ~ new company (same field)
UE ~ unemployed
= 100 = 100
23 59
100 100
13 2
= =
23 59
2.135 Let C ~ the queen is a carrier
H ~ the prince has hemophilia
P( H | C) = 0.5 P( H’ | C ) = 0.5
P( H | C’) = 0 P( H’ | C’) = 1
H H’ 0.5
0.5
H 0.5
H 0.5 H’ H’ 0.5
0.5 H 0.5
0.5
H H’ 0.5
C H 0.5
0.5 0.5 H’ 0.5 H’ H’ 0.5
H 0
0 H
0.5 H H’ 1
C’ 0
H 0
1 H’
1 H’ 1
H’ 0 H H 0
H’ 1
1
H’
H 0
H’ 1
4
1 1
P(C ∩ H' H' H' ) = =
2 16
1 3 1
P(C'∩H' H' H' ) = (1) =
2 2
P(H' H' H' ) = P(C ∩ H' H' H' ) + P(C'∩H' H' H' )
1 1 9
= + =
16 2 16
1
P(C ∩ H' H' H' ) 16 1
P(C | H' H' H' ) = = =
P(H' H' H' ) 9 9
16
2.136