FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES

Lecture-8
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Forecasting Earthquakes: Earlier Methods
Strange Animal Behavior
Stress in the rocks causes tiny hairline fractures. Cracking of the rocks emits
high pitched sounds and minute vibrations imperceptible to humans but
noticeable by many animals.
Unusual Weather Conditions and Clouds
A few scientists claim to have observed clouds associated with a seismic
event, sometimes more than 50 days in advance of the earthquake.
Foreshocks
Foreshocks are minor tremors of the earth that precede a larger earthquake
originating at approximately the same location. Unusual increase in the
frequency of these foreshocks are sign for an earthquake.
Changes in water level
porosity increases or decreases with changes in strain, causing fluctuations in
ground water level
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Forecasting Earthquakes: Recent Developments
Changes in Seismic Velocities
Earthquakes are often accompanied by temporal changes in seismic wave
velocities in the region
Radon Emission
Emission of radon gas as a quake precursor is recently being explored by the
geophysicists for developing a worldwide seismic early warning system
The Van Method
The method is based on the detection of "seismic electric signals" (SES) via a
telemetric network of conductive metal rods inserted in the ground.
Researchers have claimed to be able to predict earthquakes of magnitude
larger than 5 using this method.
Geodetic Measurements
Laser geodimeter measures changes in distance across the fault between
points. Changes in distances may indicate a precursor to an upcoming
earthquake. 3
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Seismic gap
A segment of an active plate boundary that, relative to rest of the boundary,
has not recently ruptured and is considered to be more likely to produce an
earthquake in the future is called a seismic gap.

The seismic gap theory states that a segment of a plate boundary that has not
ruptured recently has the greatest chance of rupturing in the future relative to
other segments that have experienced large earthquakes. This is based on the
recognition that tectonic plates move relative to one another at an
approximately constant speed and the assumption that the slip of plate
boundary faults occurs primarily during major earthquakes.

Some earthquake forecasting models use seismic gap for predictions.
Prediction of Earthquakes
Earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake of a
specific magnitude will occur in a particular place at a particular
time range. Despite considerable research efforts by
seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet
be made to a specific day or month.
Most useful way of predicting a future earthquake is in terms of
probabilities. For well-understood faults seismic hazard
assessment maps can estimate the probability that an
earthquake of a given size will affect a given location over a
certain number of years.
Experts do advise general earthquake preparedness, especially in
areas known to experience frequent or large quakes, to prevent
injury, death, and property damage if a quake occurs with or
without warning.
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Prediction of Earthquakes
Seismic hazard map of
the San Francisco Bay
Area, showing the
probability of a major
earthquake occurring by
2032
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Source: USGS public domain
Earthquake prediction has taken a scientific turn in late 1970s.
The first successful prediction was made in China in winter 1975
for the city of Haicheng (population about 1 million).
Scientists observed changes in land elevation and ground water
levels in that region over a period of time. A regional increase in
foreshocks had triggered a low-level alert.
Based on the reports from scientists, Chinese officials had ordered
the evacuation of the city. On February 4, 1975, earthquake of
magnitude 7.3 struck the region. Only very small fraction (2,041
people) died in this event. The number of fatalities and injuries
would have exceeded 150,000 if no earthquake prediction and
evacuation had been made.
First Successful Prediction
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The energy released during the earthquake travels in
the form of seismic waves
Modern Seismographs can sense the occurrence,
intensity and duration of these waves in different
directions.
Seismogram is the visual record of arrival time and
magnitude of shaking associated with seismic wave,
generated by a seismograph.
Sensing the Earthquakes
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First Seismograph
The first seismograph called Di-Dong-Di was invented by
Cheng Heng (132 A.D.) of China.
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Source: wikipedia
The ancient Chinese seismograph consist of a special
vase that had eight sculpted dragons mounted
around the vase in eight primary directions. Each
dragon held in its mouth a metal ball. When the
ground shook, some of the balls would fall from the
mouths of the dragons into the waiting mouths of the
sculpted frogs to show how the ground had moved.

First Seismograph
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Earlier Seismographs
Vertical
Horizontal
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Source: google images
Earlier Seismographs
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Source: wikipedia
Principle of Seismographs
Seismographs are designed so that slight earth vibrations move the instrument.
The suspended mass remains at rest as the spring absorbs some of the motion.
The stylus (pen) affixed to the mass, records the relative motion between itself
and the rest of the instrument, thus recording the ground motion.
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Modern Seismometer
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Source: wikipedia
Principle of Modern Seismometer
Modern seismometers use electronics.
In some systems, the mass is held nearly motionless
relative to the frame by an electronic negative feedback
loop. The motion of the mass relative to the frame is
measured, and the feedback loop applies a magnetic or
electrostatic force to keep the mass nearly motionless.
The voltage needed to produce this force is the output of
the seismometer, which is recorded digitally.
In other systems the weight is allowed to move, and its
motion produces a voltage in a coil attached to the mass
and moving through the magnetic field of a magnet
attached to the frame. Professional seismic observatories
usually have instruments measuring three axes: north-
south, east-west, and the vertical.
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Seismogram
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Source: google images
PROTECTING AGAINST EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE
Prepare a Seismic Risk Map for the globe which identifies rock
types, liquefaction potential, landslide potential.

Extensive geologic surveying has to be done to identify all
active faults, including hidden faults.

Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures
Enact building codes to design and build earthquake-resistant
structures in high seismic risk areas. wood, steel and
reinforced concrete are preferred as they tend to move with
the shaking ground (unreinforced concrete and heavy masonry
tend to move independently and in opposition to the shaking,
battering one another until the structure collapses)

Critical facilities such as nuclear power plants and dams should be
built on stable ground and as far as possible from active faults.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17487482 (Article: Could GPS
be used to predict earthquakes?)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/pressrelease.html (Official press
release of Parkfield earthquake prediction)
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/animals-sense-earthquakes-14375060
(Video of animals sensing earthquakes early)
Rikitake, T. (1966). A five year plan for earthquake prediction research in Japan.
Tectonophysics 3: 115
Tsunogai, U. & Wakita, H. (1995). Precursory chemical changes in ground
water: Kobe earthquake, Japan. Science, 269 (5220): 6163
References
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