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Renewables:

Choices and opportunity costs



Prof. David Elliott
The Open University

UK Energy Research Centre- MARKAL UK electricity scenarios for 2050
A rane of possible enery !i"es#

CHP
RE
Nuclear
Natural as
Coal
Electricity Generation D60% CO
2
by 2050
(no CCS)
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
i
t
y

P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n

(
P
J
/
y
r
)
0
500
!000
!500
2000
2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050
UK Electricity Mi$
Marsh%&E'( 2005

Coal wit CCS
Coal wit CCS
!G/CCS !G/CCS
0
500
!000
!500
2000
2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
i
t
y

P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
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(
P
J
/
y
r
)
CHP
RE
Nuclear
N )ith CC'
Natural as
Coal )ith CC'
Coal
Electricity Generation D60% CO
2
by 2050
(no nuclear)
UK Electricity
Mi$
Marsh%&E'(2005

Potential % of overall UK electricity supply in 2050
Onshore wind 8-11%
Offshore wind 18-23%
Wave/Tidal 12-14%
Biomass 9-11%
PV solar 6-8%
TOTAL 53-67%
Based on overall likely level of supply of 400-500 TWh in 2050
Source: DTI/Carbon Trust Renewables Innovation Review 2004

!ew E" Directi#e $ 20% o% total ener&y %ro' renewable( by 2020
$ERR%s Renewable Enery Consultation suested that by &'&'
renewables !iht provide ()* of Pri!ary enery as follows :

+&* of electricity,
(-* of heat,
('* of transport fuel
Then the new U. Renewable Enery /tratey 0&''12 said by &'&' renewables could supply around:
+'* of electricity,
(&* of heat
('* of transport fuel
Renewables 31%
3as &1*
4hat do others say5

/ource: Redpoint, Trile!!a, Ca!bride University 0&''62 78!ple!entation of EU &'&' Renewable
Taret in the U. Electricity /ector: Renewable /upport /che!es,% report for D$ERR
E"tended RO+9 Electricity /cenario: +9* renewables

7Oil Crunch% Report, fro! the 8ndustry Tas; <orce on Pea;
Oil and Enery /ecurity, &''6
Renewables supply c. )'* of
electricity, c. &9* of heat, c.('*
of transport fuel and, overall, c.
&'* of Pri!ary enery by &'&'
Oil Crunch Enery /cenario
+9-T4h

Energy Watch 7hih% scenario: -,-)34 of
0non hydro2 renewables lobally by &'+':
+'* share of final total enery de!and,
=&* of lobal electricity 0Enery 4atch &''62

Phase:out of fossil fuels by
&')' and nuclear power by
&'&), leadin to ++* reductions
of reenhouse ases by &'&'
and (''* by &')'.
INforSE visions

4hat%s stoppin it5

The U. has its own special proble!
The Renewables Obliation
0versus <eed 8n Tariffs2

*n 2005%+ the R, cost consu-ers
".2%/%01h( )hereas in 200+ the
er-an &ee2 *n 3ari4 only cost
consu-ers 2.+%/%01h
5Ernst an2 6oung 20078
er-any has 251 of )in2
ca/acity in /lace so far( the UK ".9
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