UK Energy Research Centre- MARKAL UK electricity scenarios for 2050 A rane of possible enery !i"es#
CHP RE Nuclear Natural as Coal Electricity Generation D60% CO 2 by 2050 (no CCS) E l e c t r i c i t y
P r o d u c t i o n
( P J / y r ) 0 500 !000 !500 2000 2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050 UK Electricity Mi$ Marsh%&E'( 2005
Coal wit CCS Coal wit CCS !G/CCS !G/CCS 0 500 !000 !500 2000 2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050 E l e c t r i c i t y
P r o d u c t i o n
( P J / y r ) CHP RE Nuclear N )ith CC' Natural as Coal )ith CC' Coal Electricity Generation D60% CO 2 by 2050 (no nuclear) UK Electricity Mi$ Marsh%&E'(2005
Potential % of overall UK electricity supply in 2050 Onshore wind 8-11% Offshore wind 18-23% Wave/Tidal 12-14% Biomass 9-11% PV solar 6-8% TOTAL 53-67% Based on overall likely level of supply of 400-500 TWh in 2050 Source: DTI/Carbon Trust Renewables Innovation Review 2004
!ew E" Directi#e $ 20% o% total ener&y %ro' renewable( by 2020 $ERR%s Renewable Enery Consultation suested that by &'&' renewables !iht provide ()* of Pri!ary enery as follows :
+&* of electricity, (-* of heat, ('* of transport fuel Then the new U. Renewable Enery /tratey 0&''12 said by &'&' renewables could supply around: +'* of electricity, (&* of heat ('* of transport fuel Renewables 31% 3as &1* 4hat do others say5
/ource: Redpoint, Trile!!a, Ca!bride University 0&''62 78!ple!entation of EU &'&' Renewable Taret in the U. Electricity /ector: Renewable /upport /che!es,% report for D$ERR E"tended RO+9 Electricity /cenario: +9* renewables
7Oil Crunch% Report, fro! the 8ndustry Tas; <orce on Pea; Oil and Enery /ecurity, &''6 Renewables supply c. )'* of electricity, c. &9* of heat, c.('* of transport fuel and, overall, c. &'* of Pri!ary enery by &'&' Oil Crunch Enery /cenario +9-T4h
Energy Watch 7hih% scenario: -,-)34 of 0non hydro2 renewables lobally by &'+': +'* share of final total enery de!and, =&* of lobal electricity 0Enery 4atch &''62
Phase:out of fossil fuels by &')' and nuclear power by &'&), leadin to ++* reductions of reenhouse ases by &'&' and (''* by &')'. INforSE visions
4hat%s stoppin it5
The U. has its own special proble! The Renewables Obliation 0versus <eed 8n Tariffs2
*n 2005%+ the R, cost consu-ers ".2%/%01h( )hereas in 200+ the er-an &ee2 *n 3ari4 only cost consu-ers 2.+%/%01h 5Ernst an2 6oung 20078 er-any has 251 of )in2 ca/acity in /lace so far( the UK ".9 1