Managing Uncertainty

Strategy Under Uncertainty

What
Manajemen Ketidakpastian
Empat Level Ketidakpastian (Clear Enough Future, Alternate Future, A
Range of Futuru, True Ambiguity)
Analisis Strategi dari Empat Tingkat
Ketidakpastian
Postures and Moves
Strategi Posture (Membentuk Masa depan, Beradaptasi dengan
masa depan, Reserve the right to play)
A Portofolio of Actions (No regrets Moves, Option, Big Bets)
Pendekatan baru terhadap ketidakpastian.
What
Ketidakpastian dalam menentukan strategi Pemasaran di masa
yang akan datang Melalui empat level ketidak pastian.
Manejer perusahaan membuat sebuah keputusan dalam strategi
pemasaran
Efek yang terjadi di setiap strategi penjualan dimasa yang akan
datang
Strategi dalam menhadapi kompetitor
Strategi beradaptasi dengan lingkungan
Strategi dalam menentukan komitment investasi
Bagaimana memilih strategi yang baik untuk investasi masa
depan.
Menentukan arah investasi kedepan dalam ketidakpastian

Why
(Why)
Anatomi masa depan
Masa depan yang belum diketahui
merupakan suatu kedaan dimana belum adanya
informsi untuk membuat strategi investasi.
Masa depan yang sudah diketahui
Keadaan yang sudah diketahui karena adanya
informasi sehingga dapat membantu dalam membuat
strategi investasi
Residual atau ketidakpastian
Dalam satu sisi investor belum mengetahui keadaan
yg sebernaya yang akan terjadi di masa depan namun juga
investor sudah ada informasi yang terkait dalam
menentukan strategi pemasaran.


(Why)
Empat tingkatan ketidakpastian dalam
strategi pemasaran

A Clear Enough Future

Alternate Futures

A Range of Futures

True Ambiguity


A Clear Enough Future
A Clear-Enough Future
What Can
Be Known?

Analytic Tools

Examples
A single forecast precise enough for
determining strategy

Traditional Strategy Toolkit

Strategy against low-cost airline
entrant.
Alternate future
A few discrete outcomes that define the future

Decision analysis
Option valuation models
Game theory

Long distance telephone carriers strategy to enter
the deregulated local-service market
Capacity strategies for Chemical Plants
Alternate Futures
1
2
3
What Can
Be Known?

Analytic Tools



Examples
A Range of Future
Source: Harvard Business Review (HBR) on Managing Uncertainty, HBR Press.
A Range of possible outcomes, but no natural scenarios

Latent-demand research
Technology Forecasting
Scenario Planning

Entering emerging markets, such as India
Developing or acquiring emerging technologies in consumer
electronics
A Range of Futures
What Can
Be Known?

Analytic Tools



Examples
True Ambiguity
No basis to forecast the future


Analogies and pattern recognition
Non-linear dynamic models


Entering the market for consumer
multimedia applications
Entering the Russian Market in 1982
True Ambiguity
What Can
Be Known?

Analytic Tools



Examples
Who
1. Para Eksekutif dalam perusahaan sebagai
pengambil keputusan
2. Stakeholders pemegang saham dalam
perushaan
3. Kompetitor sebagai pendorong dalam
berinovasi dalam menentukan strategi
pemasaran.
4. Konsumen sebagai penerima manfaat dari
perusahaan.
When
Diperhadapkan dengan Ketidakpastian dalam menentukan strategi
penjualan di masa yang akan datang.
Di saat Manejer perusahaan membuat sebuah keputusan dalam strategi
penjualan
Ketika Efek yang terjadi di setiap strategi penjualan dimasa yang akan
datang
Disaat Perusahaan menhadapi kompetitor
Disaat perusahaan beradaptasi dengan lingkungan
Di saat perusahaan menentukan Strategi dalam berkomitment untuk
investasi
Di saat perusahaan memilih strategi yang baik untuk investasi masa
depan.
Disaat Menentukan arah investasi kedepan dalam ketidakpastian
How ?





Shape the future

Play a leadership role
In establishing how the
industry operates,
for example:
-Setting standards
-Creating demand

Adapt to the future

Win through speed, agility,
and flexibility in recognizing
and capturing opportunities
in existing markets.

Reserve the Right to Play

Invest sufficiently to stay in
the game but avoid premature
commitments.

The Three Strategic Postures

The Choice of Strategic Postures and
Moves





No Regrets Moves

Strategic decisions that
Have positive payoffs in
Any scenario

Options

Decisions that yield a
Significant positive payoff in
Some outcomes, and a
(small) negative effective in
Others.

Big Bets

Focused strategies with positive payoffs
In one or more scenarios but a negative
Effect in others.

Whats in a Portfolio of Actions?

These building blocks are distinguished by three payoff profiles that is, the amount
of investment required up front and the conditions under which the investment will
yield a positive return.

How a Regional Bank Conforts the
Uncertainties in E-Commerce
1.Identify the nature and extent of residual uncertainties
Key areas of uncertainty include:
How much electronic commerce will occur on the Internet
How quickly consumers will switch from paper-based to electronic payments
Which specic instruments will become the primary payment vehicles (smart cards? E-cash?)
What structure will emerge for the elec- tronic commerce industry
How vertically integrated most players will be
What roles banks and nonbanks will play The bank is facing level 3 uncertainty in some areas
and level 4 in others
2.Choose a strategic posture
Objectives:
Defend current customer franchise from at- tack by new technology-based competitors
Capture new business opportunities in fast growing markets
Overall posture: reserve the right to play
3.Build a portfolio of actions
Near-term opportunities to offer more innovative products in specic areas where
the bank is strong (for example, procurement cards, industry-specic payment
products) represent no-re- grets moves.
Offering leading-edge payment prod- ucts to high-value customer segments that are
most vulnerable to attackers is another no-regrets move.
Forming a small new-business unit is a growth option to:
Conduct R&D for new payment ideas
Monitor industry developments in the broad area of retail electronic payments
4.Actively manage the strategy
Monitor key trigger events such as adoption rates for emerging products and the behavior of
nontraditional com- petitors such as telephone companies.
Establish a short-cycle review of the portfolio of options.
Participate in a number of industry consortia to reduce uncertainty.

Metode lain yang digunakan dalam menganalisis
strategi ketidakpastian pemasaran.

Many corporations have a collection of tools to better understand the effect of
uncertainty on decision making, and successful consulting firms have been
built to bring these tools to their clients. They use different methods like:

Decision Analysis.

Scenario Planning.

Simulation Analysis.

Real Options.