Disaster Management I:

Risk Analysis & Contingency

Planning
Nik Ahmad Shaiffudin Bin Nik Him MMC: 35241
MD, MMed (Emerg.Medicine, USM), AM(Mal)
nikshaiffudin@unisza.edu.my

Develop the understanding of disaster medicine and mass
casualty incident management

Subject contents (Disaster management I):
Risk analysis and contingency plan

Performance criteria :
Discuss the principles of risks analysis and contingency
plan
Perform disaster/ MCI risk analysis
Objective

1. Understand the principles & practice of disaster
management/ MCI following the national disaster
response framework / NSC Directive 20.
2. Able to perform risk analysis for disaster/ MCI


Learning Outcome
Presentation Outlines
1. Introduction
2. Risk Analysis
3. Contingency planning
4. Summary

Require risk information
....... for Analysis & Communication.....
and Risk Management


Introduction

TYPES OF DISASTER/MCI
1. NATURAL DISASTERS
2. TECHNOLOGY & HUMAN CAUSED
(MAN-MADE)
3. HYBRID OR MIXED

The Risk...
Term & Definition
Stakeholders
The Guidance
e.g Framework for Action

1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a
local priority with a strong institutional basis for
implementation
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance
early warning
3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a
culture of safety and resilience at all levels
4. Manage the underlying risk factors
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective
response at all levels


Disaster Risk Management
Disaster Risk Management
Risk Analysis
1.Hazard Identification
2.Hazard Assessment
3.Elements at risk/ Exposure
4.Vulnerability Assessment
5.Risk Estimation
Risk Governance Framework
The aim of Risk
governance is to
involve the
various
stakeholders
within all
aspects of risk
management.
Risk
communication
is central.

The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework
( Source: IRGC, 2006)
Risk communication
who (Source)


says what
(Message)

via what medium
(Channel)

to whom
(Receiver)

and directed at
what kind of
change (Effect).
Predecisional
processes
Environmental
cues
Social context Information
sources
Information
channels
Message
content
Receiver
characteristics
Risk identification: Is there a
real threat I need to pay
attention to?
Risk assessment: Do I need to
take protective action?
Protective action search: What
can be done to achieve
protection?
Protective action assessment:
What is the best method of
protection?
Protective action
implementation: Does
protection action need to be
taken now?
Information needs assessment:
What information do I need?
Communication action
assessment: Where and how can
I obtain this information?
Communication action
implementation: Do I need the
information now?
Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risks
among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general
public.
e.g Risk communication: Netherlands

Information and communication
Risk visualization
1. Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province, municipality,
or neighbourhood)
2. Risk curves
3. Maps which shows the spatial variation of risk over an area
4. WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types of
information, and display information such as:
1. Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet basic GIS data can
be shared among different technical and scientific organizations involved in hazard and
risk assessment.
2. Animations showing the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risk

What to visualize for whom?

Stakeholder

Purpose


Type of risk visualization
General public General information on risks over large
areas
Basic WebGIS applications in which they can overlay the
location of major hazard types with high resolution imagery
or topographic maps.
Awareness raising Animations (what if scenarios)
Community-based DRR projects Simple maps of the neighborhood with risk class, buildings
and other features
Businesses Investment policies, and location planning General information about hazards and risks in both
graphical and map format.
Technical staff of
(local) authorities
Land use regulation / zoning Map with simple legend in three classes: construction
restricted, construction allowed, further investigation
required.
Building codes Maps indicating the types of building allowed (building type,
number of floors)
Spatial planning Hazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilities
and possible consequences
Environmental Impact Assessment Maps and possible loss figures for future scenarios
Disaster preparedness Real time simple and concise Web-based information in
both map and graphical forms
Decision makers /
local authorities
Decision making on risk reduction measures Statistical information, loss exceedance curves, F-N curves,
maps.
Investments Economic losses, projected economic losses for future
scenarios.
Strategic Environmental Assessment General statistical information for administrative units.
NGOs Influence political decisions in favor of
environment and sustainable development
This can vary from simple maps to Web-based applications,
depending on the objectives of the NGO
Scientists / technical
staff of hazard data
producers
Hazard information exchange to public and
other agencies
WebGIS applications where they can access the basic
information
Exchange of basic information for hazard
and risk assessment
Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouse for exchanging
information
Insurance industry Development of insurance policy Loss Exceedance Curves of economic losses, F-N curves
Media Risk communication to public, Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate the
problems.
Risk visualization: example 1.
http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/preview/index.php
Risk visualisation: example 2
http:// www.risicokaart.nl
Web-GIS: RiskCity
http://geoserver.itc.nl:8181/cartoweb3/WebRiskCity/WebRiskCity.html
Risk Atlases: example
Java,Indonesia
Risk atlas: example Andean countries
http://www.comunidadandina.org/predecan/atlasweb/index.html
Population
Roads
Electrical
energy
system

Oil
infrastructure
Harbours
Airports

Agriculture
Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding Cold Drought
Tsunami
Risk Reduction
Risk reduction
R = f (H, V, C)
R = Risk
H = Hazard
V = Vulnerability
C = Coping capacity

Risk can be reduced by:
1. Reducing the hazard
2. Reducing the vulnerability of the
elements at risk
3. Reducing the amount of the
elements at risk
4. Increasing the coping capacity

Risk option strategies
1. Avoidance (eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard
2. Reduction (mitigate) i.e. likelyhood of occurence & modify
the susceptibility of hazard damage and disruption.
3. Transference (outsource or insure) i.e. modify the impact
of hazards on individuals and the community.
4. Retention ( accept and budget)
Risk reduction measures
Structural :
Refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoid
possible impacts of hazards, which include engineering
measures and construction of hazard-resistant and
protective structures and infrastructure
Non-Structural :
Refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development,
public commitment, and methods and operating practices,
including participatory mechanisms and the provision of
information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.

Risk reduction measures
Structural measures
Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible
impacts of hazards
engineering measures
construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and
infrastructure
retrofitting


Building design to withstand hazards
in Mountain areas
Foundation
Base plate foundation
Basement
Waterproof concrete
Enhancement openings and sealing
Backflow flaps
First & second floor
Reinforcement of supporting walls
Roof
Reinforcement of roof
Building openings
Decrease amount and area of
windows in hazard direction
Avalanche shutters
Temporary preventive measures (to
close openings)
Fuchs et al., 2011
Building design to withstand hazards
in Mountain areas
Measure Increase in construction costs
Reinforcement of the hillside outer wall 17
Reinforcement of the structural slab 30
Reinforcement of the truss 10
Reduction of eaves (decrease in roof area) -16
Avalanche-proof window and window shutters 67
Above flood-level light shafts +23 23
Total costs of the prototype reinforced building 8
Fuchs et al., 2011
Risk reduction measures

Dunes
Dikes
and
polder
s
Dams and barriers
e.g: Landuse planning-Netherlands
To avoide future flood
losses.... a secondary
channel & island are
planned.
Restrictive development
and some removal of
existing buildings
Non-Structural measures:
1. Awareness/Education
2. Early Warning
3. Preparedness and contingency planning
4. Emergency management (e.g. shelter facilities,
evacuation plans etc.)

Contingency Action Plan
Contingency Action
Plan
"The plan is nothing.
Planning is everything"




General Eisenhower
Definition

A contingency plan is the synthesis of the discussions, analysis and
decisions made during the planning process.
It is also a means of communicating these ideas to people who may
not have been involved in the planning process.
Written contingency plans also document, and in some cases
formalise, commitments made during the planning process.

A process, in anticipation of potential crises, of
developing strategies, arrangements and
procedures to address the humanitarian needs of
those adversely affected by crises.

Contingency plans answer some basic questions
about a potential situation.
What could happen?
What would be needed to alleviate the situation?
How would action be taken?
What materials, supplies and staff would be
needed?
What preparation is necessary?
How much will it cost?

In other words....
Starts with considering the types disaster/MCI that can
occured.
Identifying and assessing common disasters is
essential for planning how to response and minimize
the effect.
Identify the top five most probable problems that might
occur regardless of whether the event has ever actually
occurred.
Once these events are identified, the next step involves
developing an action plan specific to each emergency
scenario and establishing procedures to be followed.
Identifying And Assessing
Contingencies
Key Elements Of A Contingency Plan
1. Response strategy: Defines what is to be achieved. Based
on the scenarios, specific intervention objectives and targets, including
beneficiary numbers is developed. The response strategy links the
scenarios and the subsequent plans.
2. Implementation plan: Defines how it is going to be
achieved. Thus, the response strategy defines appropriate interventions
or programmes; the implementation plan defines how these programmes
will be implemented (e.g. using community-based targeting and
partnership with local governments) and the steps required (e.g.
emergency needs assessment and logistics).
3. Operational support plan: Sets out the administrative,
logistical and other support requirements of a response.
4. Preparedness plan : Actions to improve preparedness
for both specific and general crises are identified. In some
exercises, these actions become the focus of planning efforts
because they can have the biggest potential impact on actual
responses. The results of this process, often called preparedness
planning, are then consolidated into a preparedness plan.
5. Budget : Budget is developed, both for preparedness and for
the actual responses that have been planned.

Contingency Planning Processes
The Linear Model:
The first step requires analysis of the hazards and risks faced by a
population, to develop a better appreciation of the types of situation
that require contingency planning.
Followed by a specific prioritisation of contingencies (possible
situations).
For each of these contingencies, scenarios are developed, and
form the basis for a contingency plan.
Finally, preparedness actions defined in the plan are implemented,
and the plan is periodically updated.
The continuum model:

An ongoing process that does
not finish with the activation of
the emergency response.
It helps to anticipate and
prepare for different
possibilities.
The cycle is complete when
lessons from the response are
incorporated back into the
contingency planning process.
Triggered again when early
warning mechanisms indicate
the onset of the next crisis.
When To Focus On Different Elements Of
A Contingency Plan
Sample Contingency Plan
Summary 1
1. Risk Analysis consist of.....
Hazard Identification
Hazard Assessment
Elements at risk/ Exposure
Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Estimation
2. Risk communication is the interactive exchange of
information about risks among risk assessors, managers,
news media, interested groups and the general public.
1. Risk option management strategies:
Avoidance
Reduction
Transference
Retention
2. Risk reduction measures
Structural
Non Structural
Summary 2
Summary 3
1. There are 5 elements of contingency plan.
Response strategy
Implementation plan
Operational support plan
Preparedness plan
Budget
2. Contingency plan is important as...
Bring significant benefits to humanitarian response.
Helps to identify and prioritise preparedness activities, and the process
itself can be a useful exercise in information preparedness.
Maintain and improve the coordination mechanisms.
Can identify indicators - focus early warning efforts.
Translate early warning into early action......



Refferences

1.NSC Directive 20 , Minister Dept, Malaysia
2.https://www.ifrc.org
3.https://www.odihpn.org
4.https://ipcc-wg2.gov
5.http://www.wcpt.org/

14