CONCEPT
TO
CLOSURE
1
Economic Environment
Impact of Foreign trade agreements and related
EXIM policies
Regulation of foreign direct investment both
Inward & Outward and limited capital account
convertibility
Financial sector reforms
Investment vehicle
Strategic Positioning
Control and promoter funding / exposure.
Depreciation as a tax shield.
Direct & Indirect Tax regime
Tax Status and jurisdiction
Joint venture partners FDI restrictions
Cost of project
Land
Civil Construction
Project financing
Firming up cost of project
Analysis of factors influencing financial
projections
Financial projections
Structure means of financing
Introduction
.Background of promoters.
.Sister concerns / group activities
.Group financial strengths.
Part - II
(A)
The Project
TECHNICAL ASPECTS
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Proposed activity
Product
Statistics on other
existing/proposed units
in the field
(iv)
Site details
(v)
(vi)
Raw materials
(vii)
Infrastructural requirements
(ix)
(x)
Implementation schedule
9
(B)
FINANCIAL ASPECTS
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
(C)
Cost of project
Means of financing
Working capital requirements
Cash flow planning
during construction phase
Projections
Inter firm / industry ratio analysis
Sensitivity analysis
BUSINESS PROPOSECTS
i)
ii)
iii)
Lenders participation
Direct financial support.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h
M&A financing
Over run financing.
Financial restructuring.
Promoter financing
11
Market analysis
What is the expected growth of the industry in the near future in
which investments are sought to be made.
What would be the market share the project will have to achieve12
for financial viability.
Technical analysis
Analysis of the technical and engineering aspects of a project needs to
be done at the project formulation stage.Technical analysis seeks to
determine whether the prerequisites for the successful commissioning
of the project have been considered and reasonably good choices have
been made with respect to location, size, process, etc. the important
questions raised in technical analysis are:
Whether the preliminary tests and studies have been done
Whether the availability of raw materials, power, and other inputs
has been established?
Whether the selected scale of operation is optimal?
14
supplementary
Financial Analysis
Financial analysis seeks to ascertain whether the proposed
project will be financially viable in the sense of being able to
meet the burden of servicing debt and whether the proposed
project will satisfy the return expectations of those who provide
the capital. The aspects, which have to be looked into are:
Investment outlay and cost of project
Means of financing
Cost of capital
Projected profitability
Economic Analysis
Economic analysis, also referred to as social cost benefit analysis, is
concerned with judging a project form the larger social point of view.
benefits. The questions sought to be answered in social cost benefit
analysis are:
What are the direct economic benefits and costs of the project
measured in terms of shadow (efficiency) prices. What would be
impact of the project on the distribution of income in the society?
What would be impact of the project on the level of savings and
investment in the society?
What would be the contribution of the project towards the
fulfillment of certain merit wants like self-sufficiency, employment,
and social order.
17
Ecological Analysis
In recent years, environmental concerns have assumed a great deal
of significance and rightly so. Ecological analysis should be done
particularly for major projects, which have significant ecological
implications like power plants and irrigation schemes, and
environmental polluting industries (like bulk drugs, chemicals,
and leather processing). The key questions raised in ecological
analysis are:
What is the likely damage caused by the project to the
environment?
18
8)
9)
11)
12)
13)
14)
15)
16)
20
Lenders norms
Debt / Equity
DSCR
1.5 - 1.7 : 1
> 1. 8 times
Debt / Ebidta
Promoters
Contribution : 15 -20%
21
22
4) Flexibility
5) Companys existing financial strengths
6) Institutional / statutory guidelines
7) Investor preferences in instrument structuring
8) EV / EBIDTA multiple
25
Financial Statements
Projected balance sheet
Projected Fund flow and cash flows
28
29
Base rate
Lending rate :
Risk spread
0.5 1%
2.5%
3.5%
Rating score
> 80
> 75 - 80
70 -75
30
12
20
12
100
Evaluating Risk
Base case forecast for future cash flows and sensitivity analysis
33
Political Risk
Change in Government
Change in Legal and Tax system
Dividend repatriation
Currency Fluctuation
Mitigation measures :
Off shore Escrow accounts
Government investment in the project
Political risk insurance
34
War
Flood / Fire / Explosion
Earthquake
Strike
Mitigation measures :
Commercial Insurance
Construction Insurance
35
Price Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Foreign exchange fluctuations
Prices of Utilities
Mitigations measures :
Floor prices with sponsors or third party
Contracted price with sponsors or third party
buyers
Commodity price and forex hedging techniques
36
Price Risks
Type of Purchase & Sale contracts :
37
Credit Risks
Default of contractor
Default of fuel supplier
Default of Off-taker
Mitigation measures:
Careful selection of credit worthy business relationship
L/C , Bank gurantees, Escrows etc.
Government gurantees for obligations of state controlled
entities
38
39
Sensitivity analysis
- Basis of financial projections is based on the assumptions
- Key parameters
a.
Gestation period
b.
Capacity utilisation
c.
Selling price
d.
Raw material
consumption / price
e.
Capital cost
overrun
41
Debt security
Exclusive charge / Parri-passu charge
Covenant Financing
First charge / Second charge
Hypothecation of movables
Mortgage of immovable
Personal guarantees
Escrow cover
Co-lateral securities : Corporate gurantees
Permanent security / Interim security
Trust & Retention account
Debt service retention account
42
Equity Financing
Taxation of Securities
Equity Oriented Funds