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PENGANTAR

SISTEM DINAMIK
Dr. Eng. Amiruddin
Geofisika UNHAS
Email: amiruddinhaddade@yahoo.com

Sumber: Dr. Asep Sofyan (Teknik Lingkungan ITB); Email: asepsofyan@yahoo.com

Apakah Sistem Dinamik itu?

Sistem dinamik: Pemodelan dan simulasi komputer untuk


mempelajari dan mengelola sistem umpan balik yang
rumit (complex feedback systems), seperti bisnis, sistem
lingkungan, sistem sosial, dsb.
Sistem:

Kumpulan elemen yang saling berinteraksi, berfungsi bersama


untuk tujuan tertentu.
Umpan balik menjadi sangat penting

Masalah dinamik

Mengandung jumlah (kuantitas) yang selalu bervariasi


Variasi dapat dijelaskan dalam hubungan sebab akibat
Hubungan sebab akibat dapat terjadi dalam sistem tertutup yang
mengandung lingkaran umpan balik (feedback loops)

Sejarah

Cybernetics (Wiener, 1948): studi yang mempelajari


bagaimana sistem biologi, rekayasa, sosial, dan
ekonomi dikendalikan dan diatur
Industrial Dynamics (Forrester, 1961): mengaplikasikan
prinsip cybernetics ke dalam sistem industri
System Dynamics: karya Forrester semakin meluas
meliputi sistem sosial dan ekonomi
Dengan perkembangan komputer yang sangat cepat,
Sistem Dinamik menyediakan kerangka kerja dalam
menyelesaikan permasalahan sistem sosial dan
ekonomi

Tahap Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik


1.
2.

3.
4.
5.

6.

Identifikasi masalah
Membangun hipotesis dinamik yang menjelaskan
hubungan sebab akibat dari masalah termaksud
Membuat struktur dasar grafik sebab akibat
Melengkapi grafik sebab akibat dengan informasi
Mengubah grafik sebab akibat yang telah dilengkapi
menjadi grafik alir Sistem Dinamik
Menyalin grafik alir Sistem Dinamik kedalam program
DYNAMO, Stella, Vensim, Powersim, atau persamaan
matematika

Aspek Penting

Berfikir dalam terminologi hubungan sebab


akibat
Fokus pada keterkaitan umpan balik (feedback
linkages) diantara komponen-komponen sistem
Membuat batasan sistem untuk menentukan
komponen yang masuk dan tidak di dalam sistem

Hubungan Sebab Akibat

Berfikir sebab akibat adalah kunci dalam mengorganisir


ide-ide dalam studi Sistem Dinamik
Gunakan kata `menyebabkan` atau `mempengaruhi`
untuk menjelaskan hubungan antar komponen di
dalam sistem
Contoh yang logis (misalnya hukum fisika)
makan berat bertambah
api asap
Contoh yang tidak logis (sosiologi, ekonomi)
Pakai sabuk pengaman mengurangi korban fatal
dalam kecelakaan lalu lintas

Umpan balik (Feedback)

Berfikir sebab akibat saja tidak cukup


Umpan balik: untuk mengatur/ mengendalikan
sistem, yaitu berupa suatu sebab yang terlibat
dalam sistem namun dapat mempengaruhi
dirinya sendiri
Umpan balik sangat penting dalam studi Sistem
Dinamik

Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)


CLD menunjukkan struktur umpan balik dari sistem

Lelah VS Tidur

Gaji VS Kinerja

Gaji

Gaji Kinerja
Kinerja Gaji

Kinerja

Lelah

Lelah tidur
Tidur lelah ?

Tidur

Penanda CLD
+ : jika penyebab naik, akibat akan naik (pertumbuhan, penguatan),
jika penyebab turun, akibat akan turun
- : jika penyebab naik, akibat akan turun, jika penyebab turun, akibat
akan naik
+

Gaji
+

Kinerja

Lelah
-

Tidur

CLD dengan Positive Feedback Loop

Gaji Kinerja, Kinerja Gaji


Semakin gaji naik
Semakin baik kinerja

Semakin baik kinerja


Gaji akan semakin naik

Semakin gaji naik


Semakin baik kinerja

Gaji
+

Kinerja

Lelah Tidur, Tidur Lelah


The more I sleep

The less tired I am


The less tired I am

The more tired I am

The less I sleep

The more I sleep

The less I sleep

Lelah
-

Tidur

The more tired I am

Pemahaman Sebab Akibat


Sales are poor
Sales force is weak
Overworked
Number is limited

Augmenting CLD 2 - (Determining Loop


Polarity)

Positive feedback (reinforcing) loops

Have an even number of signs


Some quantity increase, a snowball effect takes over and that
quantity continues to increase
The snowball effect can also work in reverse
Generate behaviors of growth, amplify, deviation, and reinforce
Notation: place + symbol in the center of the loop

Negative feedback (balancing) loops

Have an odd number of signs


Tend to produce stable, balance, equilibrium and goalseeking behavior over time
Notation: place - symbol in the center of the loop

Positive/Reinforcing Loops
Accelerating growth

decline

or accelerating

Positive/Reinforcing Loops

Salary Performance, Performance Salary


The more salary I get
The better I perform
The better I perform

Salary

The more salary I get

+
The more salary I get
The better I perform

+
Performance

Negative /Balancing Loop


Tired Sleep, Sleep Tired
The more I sleep

The less tired I am


The less tired I am

The more tired I am

The less I sleep

The more I sleep

Tired
-

The less I sleep

Sleep

The more tired I am

Balancing Loops
Body Temperature
Desired Body
Temperature

Adjust Clothing

Temperature Gap

Balancing Loops

System reverts to status quo


The goals are implicit

Loop Dominance

There are systems which have more than one


feedback loop within them
The dominating loop might shift over time
When a feedback loop is within another, one loop
must dominate
Stable conditions will exist when negative loops
dominate positive loops

Combined Feedback Loops


(Case of Population Growth)

Birth rate
+

Polulation
-

Death rate

Exogenous Items

Items that affect other items in the system but are not
themselves affected by anything in the system
Arrows are drawn from these items but there are no
arrows drawn to these items
+
Sunlight reaching
each plant
Sunlight

Density of plants

Delays: The Sluggish Shower

Current Water
Temperature

Shower Tap
Setting

Desired Water
Temperature

Temperature
Gap

Delays

When you tell the story add the word


eventually
Cause the system to overshoot the target

Delays

Systems often respond sluggishly


From the example below, once the trees are planted,
the harvest rate can be 0 until the trees grow enough
to harvest
delay

# of growing trees
Planting rate

Harvest rate

System Thinking

System Structure

Pattern of Behaviour
Events

Basic System Behaviors


Exponential Growth

S-shaped Growth

Goal Seeking

S-shaped Growth with Overshoot

Oscillation

Overshoot and Collapse

Exponential Growth
Positive feedback loops generate growth, amplify deviations,
and reinforce change. An initial quantity of something
starts to grow, and the rate of growth increases.
System Level

Inflo w

Ne t in crea se rate

Goal Seeking
Negative feedback loops seek balance, equilibrium, and
static. The quantity of interest starts either above or
below a goal level and over time moves toward the goal.

Co rrecti ve A ctio n

System Level

Di screpa ncy
Ra te o f ch ang e

Goa l

Oscillation
Time delays cause the state of system to constantly
overshoots its goal or equilibrium state, reverses, then
undershoots, and so on. the quantity of interest fluctuates
around some level.
Co rrecti ve Actio n

System Level

Pe rcepti on
Pe rcepti on Del ay

Di scre pan cy

Ra te of ch ange

Goa l

S-shaped Growth
No real quantity can grow or decline forever, eventually one or
more constraints halt the growth. Initial exponential growth is
followed by goal-seeking behavior which results in the
variable leveling o.
Ne t In crease Rate

System Level

Re sou rce Ade quacy


No rmal Gro wth Rate

Ca rryi ng Ca pacity

S-Shaped Growth with Overshoot


Time delays in lead to the possibility that the state
of the system will overshoot and oscillate around
the carrying capacity.
Ne t In crea se Ra te

System Level

Re sou rce Ade qua cy


De layed Re so urce Effe ct

No rmal Growth Rate

Ca rryi ng Ca pacity

Overshoot and Collapse


The ability of the environment to support a growing
population is eroded or consumed by the population
itself.
Con su mptio n rate

Carryi ng Ca pacity

Erosio n of Ca rryi ng Capaci ty

Net In crease Rate

Normal Gro wth Rate

System Level

Resou rce Adeq uacy

Stock & Flow Diagram

Stock & Flow Diagram

Three different types of elements are (i)


stock/level/accumulation, (ii) flow/rate, and (iii)
information
The stock and flow diagram shows relationships
among variables which have the potential to
change over time (time based variables)
Unlike a causal loop diagram, a stock and flow
diagram distinguishes between different types
of variables

Stock & Flow Diagram

A stock is an accumulation of something (as


representing physical entities/elements/units),
state variable rectangular box
A flow is the movement of the something" from one
stock to another double line arrow
Rate of flow is controlled by valve
Information is symbolized by an arrow
Example : the money is a stock, and the transfer
operation for the money is a flow

Types of Stock & Flow

Materials : this includes all stocks and flows of


physical goods which are part of a production and
distribution process, whether raw materials, inprocess inventories, or finished products.
Personnel : this generally refers to actual people,
for example; hours of labour.
Capital equipment : this includes such things as
factory space, tools, and other equipment
necessary for the production of goods and
provision of services.

Types of Stock & Flow

Orders : this includes such things as orders for


goods, requisitions for new employees, and
contracts for new space or capital equipment.
Orders are typically the result of some
management decision which has been made,
but not yet converted into the desired result.
Money: this is used in the cash sense. That is, a
flow of money is the actual transmittal of
payments between different stocks of money.

MENU UTAMA STELLA

Level

Rate

Flow arc

Auxiliary

Cause-and-effect arc

Source/Sink
Constant

Level:

Stock, accumulation, or state variable


A quantity that accumulates over time
Change its value by accumulating or
integrating rates
Change continuously over time even when
the rates are changing discontinuously

Rate/Flow:

Flow, activity, movement


Change the values of levels
The value of a rate is

Not dependent on previous values of that rate


But dependent on the levels in a system along
with exogenous influences

Auxiliary:

Arise when the formulation of a levels influence


on a rate involves one or more intermediate
calculations
Often useful in formulating complex rate
equations
Used for ease of communication and clarity
Value changes immediately in response to
changes in levels or exogenous influences

Source and Sink:

Source represents systems of levels and


rates outside the boundary of the model
Sink is where flows terminate outside the
system

Example 1
(Population and birth)
+
Births

Population

Births
Population

Example 2
(Children and adults)
+
Births
+

Children
-

Children maturing

Adults

Children
maturing

Births

children

Adults

births

Rabbit
Population

birth rate

average lifetime = 8
Units: Year

birth rate = 0.125


Units: fraction/Year

births = Population * birth rate


Units: rabbit/Year

deaths = Population / average lifetime


Units: rabbit/Year

Population = INTEG(births - deaths,1000)


Units: rabbit

deaths
average lifetime

From Causal Loop Diagram


To Simulation Models 1
Causal Graph

Flow Graph
R

+
R

L
+

Equations
dL/dt = k1*R(t)

R(t) = k2*L(t)
dL/dt = k1*k2*L(t)

Block Model
L

L
k1*k2

From Causal Loop Diagram


To Simulation Models 2
Flow Graph
R1

Equations
R2

dL/dt = R1 R2
R2 = k2*L
R1 = k1

dL/dt = k1 - k2*L

Block Model
L1

L1

k2
k1

From Causal Loop Diagram


To Simulation Models 3
Equations

Flow Graph
R2

R1

dL1/dt = R1 R2

R3

dL2/dt = R2 R3

L2

L1

R1 = k1
R2 = K2 * L1
R3 = K3 * L2
dL1/dt = k1 k2*L1

Block Model
L1

dL2/dt = k2*L1 K3*L2

L1
k2
k1

L2

L2
k3

Building construction
Problem statement
Fixed area of available land for construction
New buildings are constructed while old buildings are demolished
Primary state variable will be the total number of buildings over time

Causal Graph
-

Industrial
buildings

Construction
+

Construction
fraction
Land available for
Industrial buildings

Demolition
+

Fraction of
land occupied
-

Average area
per building

Average
lifetime
for buildings

Simulation models
Flow Graph
Construction (C)

Demolition (D)
Industrial

Equations
dBl/dt = Cr Dr
Cr = f1(CF, Bl)

Buildings (B)

Dr = f2(AL,Bl)
Average lifetime
for buildings
(AL)

Construction
fraction
(CF)
Land available for
industrial buildings
(LA)

Fraction of
land occupied
(FLO)

Average area
per building
(AA)

CF = f3(FLO)
FLO = f4(LA,AA,Bl)

References

Simulation Model Design and Execution,


Fishwick, Prentice-Hall, 1995 (Textbook)
Introduction to Computer Simulation: A system
dynamics modeling approach, Nancy Roberts et
al, Addison-wesley, 1983
Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and
modeling for a complex world, John D. Sterman,
McGraw-Hill,2000