Lecture No. 1
Statistics and Probability
Objective
To inculcate in you an attitude of Statistical
and Probabilistic thinking.
To give you some very basic techniques in
order to apply Statistical analysis to realworld situations/problems.
WHAT IS STATISTICS?
That science which enables us to draw conclusions about
various phenomena on the basis of real data collected on
sample-basis
A tool for data-based research
Also known as Quantitative Analysis
Any scientific enquiry in which you would like to base your
conclusions and decisions on real-life data, you need to
employ statistical techniques!
Now a days, in the developed countries of the world, there is
an active movement for of Statistical Literacy.
Application Areas
A lot of application in a wide variety of
disciplines
Agriculture, Anthropology, Astronomy,
Biology, Economics, Engineering,
Environment, Geology, Genetics, Medicine,
Physics, Psychology, Sociology, Zoology .
Virtually every single subject from
Anthropology to Zoology . A to Z!
STATISTICS
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
ORGANIZATION OF THIS
COURSE
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED STRUCTURE,
THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS COURSE IS AS FOLLOWS:
HOMEWORK
ASSIGNMENTS
EXAMS
WEEKS
LECTURES
AREA
TO BE
COVERED
1 TO 5
1 TO 15
DESCRIPTIVE
STATISTICS
1 TO 5
MID-TERMI
6 TO 10
16 TO 30
PROBABILITY
6 TO 10
MID-TERMII
11 TO 15
31 TO 45
INFERENTIAL
STATISTICS
11 TO 15
FINAL
EXAM
GRADING
There will be two term exams and one final
exam. In addition, there will be 15 homework
assignments. The final examination will be
comprehensive in nature. (Approximately 25-30% of the
final exam paper will be on the course covered upto the
Mid-Term-II Exam.)
These will contribute the following percentages to the
final grade:
Mid-Term-I:
20%
Mid-Term-II:
20%
Final Exam:
30%
Homework Assignments: 30%
Meaning of Statistics
STATUS
Statistics
Meanings
Political
State
EXAMPLES OF DATA
Data are collected in many aspects of everyday life.
Statements given to a police officer or physician or
psychologist during an interview are data.
The correct and incorrect answers given by a student on
a final examination.
Almost any athletic event produces data.
The time required by a runner to complete a marathon,
The number of errors committed by a baseball team in
nine innings of play.
EXAMPLES OF DATA
And, of course, data are obtained in the course of
scientific inquiry:
The positions of artifacts and fossils in an archaeological
site,
The number of interactions between two members of an
animal colony during a period of observation,
The spectral composition of light emitted by a star.
Types of Data
Data
Quantitative
(Numeric)
Qualitative
(Non - Numeric)
Variable
A quantity that, varies from an individual to
individual.
Variable
Quantitative
(Numeric)
Qualitative
(Non - Numeric)
Variable
Variable
Quantitative
(Numeric)
Continuous
Qualitative
(Non - Numeric)
Discrete
Continuous Variable
Measurement
Height, Weight etc
Continuous Variable
Discrete Variable
Counting
e.g. No. of sisters
Discrete Variable
Gaps, Jumps
Measurement Scales
Nominal Scale
Ordinal Scale
Measurement Scales
Interval Scale
Ratio Scale
MEASUREMENT SCALES
By measurement, we usually mean the assigning of number to
observations or objects and scaling is a process of measuring. The four
scales of measurements are briefly mentioned below:
NOMINAL SCALE
The classification or grouping of the observations into mutually
exclusive qualitative categories or classes is said to constitute a nominal
scale. For example, students are classified as male and female. Number 1
and 2 may also be used to identify these two categories. Similarly, rainfall
may be classified as heavy moderate and light. We may use number 1, 2
and 3 to denote the three classes of rainfall. The numbers when they are
used only to identify the categories of the given scale, carry no numerical
significance and there is no particular order for the grouping.
Example
Chemical and manufacturing plants
sometimes discharge toxic-waste materials
such as DDT into nearby rivers and streams
These toxins can adversely affect the plants
and animals inhabiting the river and the river
bank.
Solution
The variables Length, weight and DDT
concentration are quantitative variables
because each is measured on a nominal
scale (Length is centimeters, Weight is
grams and DDT in parts per million).
Rationale
Whenever we speak about the weight of an
object, obviously, if our measuring instrument
reads zero, this means that the object being
measured has zero weight --- and, in this sense,
the zero would be a true zero.
An exactly similar argument holds for the length of
an object.
Rationale
The river/creek from which the fish
were captured, and the species of fish are
qualitative data because these can not be
measured quantitatively, they can only be
classified into categories.
(i.e. Channel fish, Largemouth bass or
smallmouth buffalo fish for the species and Tennessee
River, Flint creek, Limestone creek and Spring
creek)
ERRORS OF MEASUREMENT
Errors of Measurements
Errors of Measurements
Biased Errors
Random Errors
Cumulative Errors
Systematic Errors
Compensating Errors
Accidental Errors
Statistical Inference
A Statistical Inference in an estimate or
prediction or some other generalization
about a population based on information
contained in sample.
That is, we use information contained in
sample to learn about the larger population.
A population
One or more variables of interest
A sample
An Inference
A measure of Reliability
Measure of Reliability
A measure of reliability is a statement
(usually quantified) about the degree of
uncertainty associated with a statistical
inference.
Example
A large paint retailer has had numerous
complaints from customers about underfilled paint cans.
As, a result retailer has begun inspecting
incoming shipments of paint from
suppliers.
Shipments with under-filled problems will be
sent back to supplier.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Describe a population
Describe a variable of interest
Describe a sample
Describe the Inference
Describe a measure of uncertainty of our
inference.
Solution
a) The population is the set of units of
interests to the retailer, which is the
shipment of 2,440 cans of paint.
b) The weight of paint cans is the variable,
the retailer wishes to evaluate.
IN TODAYS LECTURE,
YOU LEARNT:
The nature of the science of Statistics
The importance of Statistics in various
fields
Some technical concepts such as
The meaning of data
Various types of variables
Various types of measurement scales
The concept of errors of measurement