SPECIAL PROBABABILITY

DISTRIBUTION
Discrete Probability Distribution

The Poisson Distribution

If we are interested in the number of occurrences

that take place in an interval (time/volume)

Then

we use

the Poisson Distribution

Situations to be modeled by Poisson

Distribution are,

Events occur singly

The probability that an event occurs is

the same for each interval/ at the
constant rate.

Events occur independently

The variable X is the number of occurrences in

the given interval and we write
X ~ Po ()

where is the parameter

and > 0.

When the Poisson Distribution is appropriate, the

probability of exactly x occurs is given by the
formula

P( X = x) = e- x
x!

Example:
An average of 3 cars arrive at a highway tollgate every minute. If
this rate is approximately Poisson Distribution what is the
probability that exactly,
(a)

5 cars will arrive in one minute

(b)

7 cars will arrive in 5 minutes

Solution:
If X is the number of cars that arrive at the tollgate, then
X ~ Po ()
where = 3.
(a)
(b)

3 5
e
3
P( X = 5) =
= 0.1008
5!
= 15, P( X = 7) = e 15 15 7
= 0.0104

7!

Example :

Emergency calls to an ambulance service

are received at random times, at an average of
2 per hour. Calculate the probability that, in a
randomly chosen one hour period,
(a) no emergency calls are received
(b) exactly one call is received in the first
half hour and exactly one
call is received
in the second half.

Solution:
a) If X is the number of emergency calls received, then
X ~ Po () where = 2
P( X = 0) = e-220
0!
first

= 0.1353

b) Suppose Y1 : the number of emergency call received in the

half and
Y2 :
the second half and = 1.
P(Y1 = 1) =

and
P(Y2 = 1)=

e-111
1!
e-111
1!

P(Y1 = 1) x P(Y2 = 1) =0.1353

. Using The Poisson Table

Sometimes we need to calculate the probability such as P( X < 10).

In this case,
we have to calculate P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X=2) + + P(X = 9).
This is time consuming ..
thus,
it is easier to use the Poisson Distribution Table.

Example :
The number of breakdowns in a particular machine occurs at a
rate of 2.5 per month.
Assuming that the number of breakdowns is following Poisson
distribution, find the probability that,

(a) more than 3 breakdowns occur in a particular month.

(b) less than 10 breakdowns occur in a 3 months period.
(c) exactly 3 breakdowns occur in 2 months.

Solution :
X=

the number of breakdowns that occurred,

X ~ Po (), = 2.5.

(a)

P(X > 3) = P(X 4) = 0.4562

(b)

X ~ Po (), and = 7.5.

P(X < 10) = 1 P(X 10)
= 1 0.2236
= 0. 7764

(c) X ~ Po (), and = 5.0. For X = 3, we can use formula or Poisson table.
Using table:
P(X = 3) = P(X 3) P(X 4)
= 0.8753 0.7350
= 0.1403
Using formula:

e 5 5 3
P(X = 3) =
3!
=

= 0.14037

0.1404

Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution.

If X is a random variable following the Poisson distribution

X ~ P(),
then,
the mean of X is E(X) =

and variance Var(X) = .

Example :

If X ~ Po (1.8),

the mean, E(X) = 1.8 and

the variance, Var(X) = 1.8.

Poisson Distribution as Approximation to

Binomial Distribution.
Under certain conditions the Poisson distribution can be used as an
approximation to the binomial distribution.

The important factors are the values of n and p.

If

n is large (n > 50) and

p is small (p < 0.1),

Then
X ~ B(n , p) can be approximate to

X ~ Po (), where = np.

Example :

There are 500 eggs in a box. At an average,

0.06% are broken before it arrives at a
supermarket.
Find the probability in a box containing 500
eggs,
(a)

exactly 3 eggs are broken

(b)

less than 2 eggs are broken

(c)

at least 3 eggs are broken

Solution:

is a random variable of the number of eggs broken.

n =500 (n > 50) and
p= 0.0006 (p < 0.01),
we can use the approximation to Poisson.
X ~ B(500 , 0.006) X ~ Po ( )
where = np = 500 x 0.006 = 3, so that
X ~ Po (3).

(a) P( X = 3)

3 3
e
3
=
3!

(b) P( X < 2)

1 P(X 2)

1 0.8009

0.1991

0.5768

(c) P(X 3)

0.2240

Example :

The probability that an adult suffers an allergic reaction to a particular

innoculation is 0.0018.
If 5000 adults are given the innoculation, estimate the probability that
,
(a) at most 10 suffer an allergic reaction.
(b) From 5 to 15 inclusive suffer an allergic reaction.

Solution :
Y :number of adults suffers,
n =

5000 (n > 50)

Y~ B(5000, 0.0018).
=

0.0018

(p < 0.01),

the approximation to Poisson can be used.

Y~ B(5000 , 0.0018) X ~ Po ( ) where

= np = 5000 x 0.0018 = 9,

so that

X ~ Po (9)
(a)

P( X 10)

=
=
=

1 P(X > 11)

1 0.2940
0.7060

(b)

P( 5 X 15)

=
=
=

P(X 5) P(X 16)

0.9450 0. 0220
0.9230

Example :

In a town, one out of 100 residents has group A blood.

(a) 400 blood donors are taken at random.

By using the suitable approximation, find the probability that
more than 4 donors are having group A blood.

(b) Find the minimum number of donors that must be taken at

random, so that the probability of at least one donor having
group A blood is 0.8.

Solution :

(a) Suppose that X is the number of blood A resident, then

X ~ B(400,0.01).
n = 400

(large) p = 0.01 (small),

Poisson approximation.
= np = 400 x 0.01 = 4, X ~ Po (4)

(b)

P( X 4)

0.5665

P(X 1)

0.8

=
=
=

1 P ( X < 1)
1P(X=0)
1 e-0.01n

e-0.01n

0.2

ln 0.2
0.01

161

Example

Fanfold paper for computer printers is made by putting

perforations every 30 cm in a continuous roll of paper.
A box of fanfold paper contains 2000 sheets. State the length of
the continuous roll from which the box of paper is produced.
The manufacturers claim that faults occur at random and at
average rate 1 per 240 metres of paper.
State an appropriate distribution for the number of faults per box
of paper. Find the probability that it has more than 4 faults.
Two copies of a report which runs to 100 sheets per copy are
printed on this sort of paper.
Find the probability that there are no faults in either copy of the
report and also the probability that just one copy is faulty .

Solution
No of sheets = 2000
Length
= 2000 X 30
= 60 000cm
= 600 metres
Faults : 1 per 240
No of faults per box

= 600/240 = 2.5

So suitable distribution is X ~ Po (2.5)

P ( X=0) = -2.5

= 0.0821 ( 3 sf)

P ( X > 4) = 1 - P ( X 4 )
= 1 0.8912
= 0.1088
= 0.109 ( 3 s f )

100 sheets =

100X 30 = 3000 cm = 30 m

So no. of faults = 30/240 = 1/8 = 0.125

P(Y=0)=

Y ~ Po ( 0.125 )
-0.125

= 0.882496902

P ( Both reports have no faults ) = -0.125 X -0.125

= 0.7788
= 0.779 ( 3 sf)

Y=0
X=0

X 0

P ( just one faulty ) = 2( 0.8825 )( 1 0.8825 )

= 0.20739
= 0.207 ( 3 s f )

Y0
Y=0
Y 0

Example
Customers enter an antique shop independently of one another and at random
intervals of time at an average rate of four per hour throughout the five days
of a week on which the shop is open.
The owner has a coffee-break of fifteen minutes each morning; if one or more
customers arrive during this period then his coffee goes cold, otherwise he
drinks it while it is hot.
Let X be the random variables denoting the number of customers arriving
during a Monday coffee break , and
let Y be the random variables denoting the number of days during a week
on which the owners coffee goes cold.
Assuming that X has a Poisson distribution, determine ( correct to 3 significant
figures)
a) P( X=0)
b) P( X 2)
c) E( Y )
d) P( Y = 2 )

Solution

15 minutes break
4 per hour 1 per 15 minutes
X ~ P ( 1)
P ( X = 0)

= -1
= 0.36787
= 0.368 ( 3 s f)

P( X 2)

= 1 - P ( X 1)
= 1[P(X=0)+P(X=1)]
= 1 [ -1 + -1 ]
= 0.264 ( 3 s f)

P ( coffee goes cold)

= P ( X 1)
= 1 P ( X = 0)
= 0.63212

Y ~ Bin ( 5, 0.63212)
E ( Y )= 3.1606= 3.16 ( 3 s f)
d) P ( Y = 2 ) = 5 C 2 ( 0.632122 ) ( 0.367872 )
= 0.19892
= 0.199 ( 3 s f)