HONG KONG
Advantages:
Advantages:
Disadvantages:
Uncertain quality and reliability of operations
Larger minimum order quantities compared
to HK
Higher repair rate
Less quality and cleanliness conscious
Higher costs of training requirements
Uncertain trade relations with the USA
Disadvantages:
Higher labour costs compared to China
Maximum working overtime
Less workers available
PRODUCTION PLANNING
HEURISTIC FOR INITIAL ORDER
Inferences from Case Facts
Forecast accuracy is higher for the styles where the Buying Committee had higher
agreement;
Demand from previous years indicate that the standard deviation of the demand for a
style is approximately twice the standard deviation of the Buying Committees forecast for
sales
Cost of underproduction is a lost opportunity of 24% of revenues; cost of overproduction
is a loss of 8% on revenues. The former is thus preferred
Constraints
A minimum order of 60 units per style is required at the Hong Kong production facility;
Total order should be greater than 10.000 units;
Concept Applied
A lower Coefficient of Variation (= Standard deviation / mean) implies higher agreement;
The 10 styles are divided into 3 categories based on the Coefficient of variation:
C.V. < 0.1 Lower variation expected, we can thus produce the mean;
0.1 < C.V. < 0.2 Variation expected, take lower risk, produce ( - );
C.V. > 0.2 High variations expected, thus to avoid risk produce ( - 2*);
As suggested by Exhibit 5, once the actual sales figures arrive, the forecasts are refined
Result - Total order for initial phase of production = 15.596 units
Laura
Caroly
Greg Wendy
n
Gustavo
Jamie
Hola
Benita
Epsilon
Anja
Franzl
Daphne
Cara
Ignacio
Total
3183
838
2836
2004
1009
1585
4245
2224
861
1215
20000
3196
920
2491
2400
974
1870
2990
2094
1735
1330
20000
3581
891
3286
1715
848
1711
3616
2115
987
1250
20000
3748
964
2914
1980
1015
1467
3436
3497
585
394
20000
Tom
Wally
Mean
()
3324
1037
2566
2002
1211
1864
4592
1435
1360
609
20000
3182
940
2764
2214
934
2108
3484
2234
929
1211
20000
3369
932
2810
2053
999
1768
3727
2267
1076
1002
20000
Coefficient
Standard
of
Deviation Variation Category
()
(C.V. = /
)
240.9
0.071
I
67.5
0.072
283.4
0.101
232.8
0.113
120.8
0.121
II
229.2
0.130
585.8
0.157
672.5
0.297
407.9
0.379
III
395.5
0.395
Final
Production
= - K*
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3369
932
2526
1820
878
1538
3141
922
260
210
15596
the multiple standard deviation (k=0,1,2) is a measure of how risk averse Obermeyer Sport is.
We assume that Wally is very conservative while placing these order
Ratio: 0-0,1 we will produce the mean, lowest risk
Ratio: 0,1-0,2 mean standard deviation (k=1)
Ratio: 0,2-1 mean 2* standard deviation (k=2), the highest risk
Conclusion: tried to minimize the risk of the forecast to avoid overproduction
OPERATIONAL CHANGES
1/2
OPERATIONAL CHANGES
2/2
1/2
Concept
2/2
Results
2
3
% of total
value
30%
13%
16%
13%
Zippers
12%
S. No.
1
5
6
7
Item
Lead time
ABC
Category
45-90 days
45-60 days
14-21 days
45-60 days
60 days from
HK/
91 days from
Japan
10%
15-30 days
3%
1%
2%
30-60 days
15-30 days
30 days
THANK YOU