Overpopulation???
Population Geography
1. Demography and Population Geography
How population issues are investigated?
Population Geography
Concerned by the spatial aspects of population:
1- Simple description of the location of the population.
2- Explanation of its spatial pattern and distribution.
3- Geographical analysis (processes such as urbanization and migration).
By 2,000 BC
By 20,000 BC
By 500,000 BC
By 12,000 BC
By 11,000 BC
By 1,000,000 BC
AD 500
Origins:
7 million BC
33,000 BC
1,200 BC
By 40,000 BC
AD 1,000
By 10,000 BC
Population explosion
26 years
15 years
14 years
12 years
13 years
14 years
33 years
127 years
2001
2050
Dawn of civilization.
Invention of the plow, the wheel, writing, and numbers.
Agricultural Hearths
Mesopotamia
(6,500 B.C.)
Nile
(5,000 B.C.)
Indus
(4,700 B.C.)
Ganges
(4,700 B.C.)
Huang He
(4,500 B.C.)
Agricultural surpluses
Farming allowed greater population densities and the generation
of an agricultural surplus.
A growing share of the population was able to engage in nonagricultural activities.
Induced all sorts of innovations such as irrigation, craftsmanship,
and metallurgy.
Division of Labor
Specialization
Stratification
Development of trade.
Creation of the first cities.
Stratification
An elite gained control of surplus
resources and defended their
position with arms.
Centralization of power and
resources:
Led to the development of the
state.
Economy:
Low levels of productivity (subsistence level).
Profits taken away by the lord/church, inhibiting any increases in
agricultural productivity.
80 to 90% of the population was in agriculture while the other share were
artisans and landowners.
Technological innovations
Social changes
Significant urbanization.
Creation of a labor class.
Migration from the countryside to cities:
By 1870 more of the half of the population of the first industrial nations
was no longer in the agricultural sector.
England had reached this stage since 1820.
Towards 1901, 75% of the English population lived in cities.
2100
10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
1900
1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Agricultural Revolution
Feudal society.
Wealth from agriculture and land
ownership.
Slow demographic growth.
Industrial Revolution
Industrial
Revolution
200 years
Post-Industrial
Revolution
Post-Industrial Revolution
Information society.
Wealth from technological
development.
Slow demographic growth.
Feudalism
Industrial
Planetary
Organization
Tribe / Village
City-state,
Kingdom
Nation-state
Global
governance
Economy
Hunting and
gathering
Settled
agriculture
Industrial
system
Globalization
Communications
Language
Writing
Printing
Internet
Fertility
1. Context
2. Growth Rates
3. Doubling Time
http://www.newint.org/issue309/Images/population.gif
Context
Definition
Births minus Deaths
Positive migratory balance
Population Growth
Society
Economy
Culture
Expressed in percentages.
Birth rate of 20 per 1000 people.
Death rate of 10 per 1000 people.
Growth rate of 10 people per year per
1000 population, or 1%.
Natural Increase
per
More Developed
Countries
Less Developed
Countries
Less Developed
Countries (less
China)
World
Year
80,903,481
916,337
79,987,144
71,675,164
Day
221,653
2,511
219,143
196,370
154
152
136
Minute
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2003.
More Developed
Regions
Age
Male
Female
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
17-19
10-16
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
1950
2000
2015
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
China (1.8)
South Korea (1.4)
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
Italy (1.2)
Russia (1.1)
Bulgaria (1.1)
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Millions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Context
Reasons for huge population growth
Achieved death control more effectively then birth control.
Modern medicine:
Vastly decreased the number of deaths from many diseases (malaria,
yellow fever, etc.).
Famine:
Reduced through better agriculture, distribution, storage and by
international aid mechanisms.
Infant mortality:
Decreased in most areas.
Context
Birth control has been more difficult to achieve
Religious beliefs.
Cultural traditions.
The importance of children as help, labor and security.
The role of women is very limited in many societies.
Growth Rates
High growth
High
2% and above.
Characteristic of many Third
World countries.
Average growth
2.0%
Average
1.0%
Low
0.0%
ZPG
Low growth
Between 0 and 1%.
Europe, the United States and
Canada are currently in this
range.
Not Available
Less than 0%
0% to 0.5%
0.5% to 1.0%
1.0% to 1.5%
1.5% to 2.5%
More than 2.5%
Doubling Time
Definition
Length of time necessary for an area (usually a nation) to double
its population.
The mathematics of population work very much like
compounding interest.
Percentage of increase is applied to an ever-increasing base.
Simple equation: 72 / Growth rate.
Implications
The faster the growth rate the lower the doubling time:
1% growth rate: 72 years.
4% growth rate: 19 years.
Infinite doubling time: no growth or negative growth.
Fertility
1. Crude Birth Rate
2. Total Fertility Rate
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
1,000
30
CBR = 30
1,000
60
TFR = 2.04
= (60/1,000) * (49-15)
1.14 - 1.50
1.51 - 2.00
2.01 - 2.50
2.51 - 3.00
3.01 - 4.00
4.01 - 7.41
NA
Biological
Determinants
Social
Determinants
Fertility
Economic
Determinants
Environment:
Represents an undocumented impacts on fertility.
Stressed populations tend to have less males than females.
Possible correlation between sperm count and pollution.
Contraception:
Used by 30-50% of all married couples.
Availability of contraceptive devices and social attitudes toward their use
affect fertility rates.
Sharp differences exist between DCs and LDCs.
Some notable exceptions, such as China and Cuba.
Mortality
Death rate
Easiest of the variables to
consider.
Occurs just once per person and is
the most recorded.
1,000
30
CDR = 30
Life Expectancy
Definition
Number of years a person is expected to live.
Based on current death rates.
May change due to ameliorations in standards of living.
Context
Life Expectancy
Optimum life expectancy
Life expectancy is ultimately dictated by human physiology:
At some points, organs cease to function properly.
Limit on the lifespan of non-cancerous human cells.
Epidemiological Transition
Definition
Focuses on changes over time in the causes of mortality
affecting certain populations:
Health conditions.
Disease patterns.
Epidemiological Transition
Stages
Communicative Diseases
High Fertility
High Mortality
30 years
Receding Pandemics
High Fertility
Decreasing Mortality
50 years
70 years
Population Profiles
1. Population Pyramid
2. Dependency Ratio
3. Sex Structure
Population Pyramid
Definition
Age group
75+
60-75
Males
45-60
Females
30-45
15-30
0-15
10
0
10
Percentage of the population
Population Pyramid
Mexican pyramid
Much wider base than the others.
Beginning of transition.
Rapidly growing population where the percentage of people
under 15 years of age is high.
Swedens pyramid
Does not appear to be a pyramid at all.
Youngest component is smaller than its middle-aged population
and only slightly larger than its aged population.
No-growth situation, since some deaths occur from all age
groupings.
Sweden has a higher death rate than Mexico.
Population Pyramid
USA pyramid
Lies in between the two situations mentioned above.
Would be more like the Swedish pyramid were it not for large
amounts of immigration.
Bulge in the 30-54 year old component:
The baby boom generation.
Population Pyramid
German pyramid
Shows the most extreme example of population decline.
Vast difference between males and females in the upper age
groups.
Vast number of military casualties among the population which
fought the 2nd World War.
Dependency Ratio
Definition
Comparison between the productive and non-productive
population.
Often expressed in non-productive per 100 productive.
Non-productive population:
Refers to the very old (usually >65 years of age) and the very young
(usually <15).
Considered to be the non-productive segments of society because they
are not part of the labor force.
Productive years:
Between 15 and 65.
This portion of the population constitutes the labor force.
Revised to consider lower than 20 years in developed countries
(increasing time spent for education).
Dependency Ratio
Implications
Society incurs costs in supporting its dependent population.
Old age generates social costs:
Retirement benefits.
Increased medical expenditures.
Greater consumption of other social services.
Youths:
Not yet in the work force.
Some medical costs.
Great expenditures for education.
Dependency Ratio
Aging
Major shift in health issues.
1995: 380 million people aged 65 years and above.
2020: over-65 population is projected to increase globally by
82%, to more than 690 million.
For every baby born today in an industrialized country, there are
10 people aged 65 or over.
By the year 2020 there will be 15 such elderly persons for each
newborn.
In developing countries, the ratio today is 2 people over 65 for
every newborn, and 4 for every newborn by 2020.
Dependency Ratio
Impacts
Sex Structure
Definition
Gender composition of a population.
Males / Females * 100.
Probability:
Approximately equal probability of male and female births.
Normally expect sex ratios to remain very close to 100.
This is often not the case.
Factors
Life expectancy at birth is greater for females (79 years) than for
males (72).
Gap has increased steadily since 1920, when the difference was
just one year.
Less than 90
90 - 95
95 - 100
100 - 105
105 - 110
More than 110
NA
WWI
WWII
Civil War
Immigration Boom
Life expectancy gap
Immigration Boom
Population Capacity
1. Population Density
2. Population Distribution
3. Population Capacity
Population Density
Arithmetic density
AD = P / A
Arable land
PD = P / AL
Physiological density
Number of people per unit of
productive land.
Productive is generally equated with
arable land (AL).
Important figure to measure
sustainability.
Population Distribution
Definition
Considers the distribution of population densities over the earths
surface.
Informative in assessing a nations population.
Typical concentrations along major river systems.
Areas of great concentration:
South Asia.
East Asia.
Western Europe.
Northeastern North America.
Population Capacity
How many people can be
sustained by the Earth?
Space
Consumption
Technology
Resources
Population Capacity
Demographic capacity
Studies about natures capacity to support human life go back
many centuries.
Leeuwenhoek (1679) extrapolated densities for Holland to the
whole planet (13.4 billion capacity).
Focus:
Space.
Energy requirements.
Non-renewable resources.
Photosynthetic potentials.
Population Capacity
Ravenstein in 1891
Arable land
X
Agricultural
technology
/
Consumption
per capita
Population Capacity
Contemporary issues
Events such as the Green Revolution were not foreseen by
Ravenstein.
Managed to increase agricultural yields in many areas by
quantities far greater than he had anticipated.
Efforts to calculate carrying capacity have largely failed.
Too many variables.
Value ranges between 4 and 16 billion.
Population Capacity
Level of consumption
Alternative perspective.
The issue is not resource supply, but
resource demand.
The world is producing only a finite
number of resources for consumption.
Demographic capacity is linked with level
of resource consumption.
American (lifetime)