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FISCAL

DEFICIT
crisis
GROUP 1
SECTION D

A B H I N AV M A N C H A N D A
A K S H E Y B H O G RA
A L K A N E H RA
DEEPIKA PV
DEVDHAS KISHEN DANIEL
G A RV M A N C H A N D A

Concerns
Theoretical Perspectives
Neoclassical
Keynesian View
Ricardian
Equivalence
Rules and Targets for controlling Debt and Deficit
Maastricht Treaty 1992
Budget deficit <= 3% of GDP
Public debt <=60% of GDP
Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 (FRBMA)
Fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by 2008
Rangarajan C & D.K. Srivastava, 2005. Fiscal deficit and government debt: Implications for growth and
stabilization Economic and Political Weekly

FISCAL DEBT SUSTAINABILTIY

Rangarajan C & D.K. Srivastava, 2005. Fiscal deficit and government debt: Implications for growth and stabilization
Economic and Political Weekly

Will rise in the fiscal deficit lead


to the crowding out of the
private investment ?
Fixed pool of saving view
Aggregate saving function of aggregate income
Saving and finance
Endogenous Money
Empirical data : Money banking and Finance India

Contd.
2008 Onwards
Conclusions

Savings and Income


Money supply
Govt. Securities
Interest rate
Crowding out ?

FRAMEWORKS
India has a three tired federal form of govt.

Central government
State government
Local level
Planning commission- divides expenditures into planed and non-planed
components between state and central govt.
FRBMA-2003
Taxes

Direct
Indirect

FISCAL POLICY TILL


1990
Fiscal policy is used to transfer private savings to cater to the
growing consumption and investment needs of the public sector
Before 1975

High tax rates


Kaldors recommendations
Complex system
Central excise duty, Customs duty
1985-86 the government presented its Long-Term Fiscal Policy
Balance of payment crisis

Supriyo De, 2012. Fiscal policy in India: Trends and Trajectory. Ministry of Finance (Government of India)

Liberalization and fiscal


consolidation
Tax Reforms Committee provided a blue print for reforming both direct and
indirect taxes.
Introduction of a VAT in 21 states in 2005
Global Financial Crisis of 2008
Affected financial sector, exports, exchange rate
GDP declined to 5.8 in second half of 2008-09 from 7.8 in first half
Excise duty cuts, fiscal support to selected export industries and ramping up public
expenditure

Thirteenth Finance Commission - targeted fiscal deficit of 5.5% of GDP in


2010-11

Supriyo De, 2012. Fiscal policy in India: Trends and Trajectory. Ministry of Finance (Government of India)

Analysing trends in fiscal


deficit

Source:RBI Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy

Latest News
October 1,
2014

November 27,
2014

15% budget cut


suggested for some
ministries

November 27,
2014

April-August fiscal deficit at 75% of full-year


target
The government has pegged the fiscal deficit
at 4.1 per cent of GDP in the current financial
India's credit trend in 2015
year

hinges on reining fiscal deficit:


Moody's

14 November,
2014

Oil duty hike to shore up govt


revenue by Rs 11,000 crore:
India Ratings (14 Nov, 2014)

THANK YOU

Questions?

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