Overview:
March 2015
USPS
Announced avg. increase of ~ 2.0% across most categories, effective April 2015
Poor demand, historically low pricing, increased input costs, and high debt loads (Verso ~$2.5BB)
Increase
Date
Announc
ed
Grades
Date Effective
Twin Rivers
$2.00/cwt
1/8/2015
1/30/2015
$2.00/cwt
Verso
$1.50/cwt
$1.00/cwt
Appleton
Coated
$2.00/cwt
Catalyst
$2.00/cwt
($40/st)
Sappi
$1.50/cwt
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
CDN Mar
2015
0.80
0.4
0.2
Source: Forex
Source: BD Internal,
RISI
Source: RISI
Coated Groundwood
Source: RISI
$65.00
$60.00
$55.00
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
Source: RISI
$60.00
$55.00
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
Source: RISI
$60.00
$55.00
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$60.00
$55.00
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
$60.00
$55.00
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
Mill
Catalyst
Verso
Resolute
UPM
Kruger
Evergreen
Total
Capacity*
Capacity
(ST)
1,005
785
562
405
267
200
Market
Share
31.2%
24.3%
17.4%
12.6%
8.3%
6.2%
Cumulative Share
31.2%
55.5%
73.0%
85.5%
93.8%
100.0%
3,224
Source: RISI
Rank Company
Tonnes (000)
Mkt. Share
UPM
3,029
20.5%
SAPPI
1,205
8.1%
Burgo Group
1,195
8.1%
4
5
NewPage
Stora Enso
1,061
918
7.2%
6.2%
Verso
633
4.3%
Norske Skog
530
3.6%
Resolute
529
3.6%
9
10
Leipa
Oji Paper Holdings
520
518
3.5%
3.5%
11
SCA
490
3.3%
12
443
3.0%
13
366
2.5%
14
Daio Paper
280
1.9%
15
16
Kruger
Catalyst
253
214
1.7%
1.4%
17
Metsa Board
200
1.4%
18
Perlen
190
1.3%
19
180
1.2%
20
175
1.2%
Source: RISI
Coated Freesheet
Source: RISI
$60.00
$55.00
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$55.00
$50.00
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Company
Asia Pulp & Paper
SAPPI
UPM
NewPage
Stora Enso
Shandong Chenming Pap. Holdings
Lecta
Nippon Paper Group
Oji Paper Holdings
Moorim SP
Hokuetsu Kishu Paper
Burgo Group
Sun Paper
Hansol
Sequana Capital
Daio Paper
Verso
Shandong Huatai Paper Grp
Mitsubishi
International Paper
Supercalendered / UGW
Source: RISI
35# SC-A
$1,050.00
$1,000.00
$950.00
$900.00
$850.00
$800.00
$750.00
$700.00
$650.00
$600.00
Source: RISI
33# SC-B
$800.00
$750.00
$700.00
$650.00
$600.00
Source: RISI
NA SC Capacity
Mill
Irving
Port
Hawkesbury
Cumulative
Share
453
25.3%
25.3%
324
21.2%
46.5%
Resolute
252
15.2%
61.7%
NewPage
265
14.8%
76.5%
UPM (Madison)
245
13.7%
90.1%
Catalyst
177
9.9%
100.0%
1,716
Total Capacity*
Company
Resolute
UGW
1,420
Mkt. Share
32.7%
Catalyst
656
15.1%
Irving
462
10.6%
Belgravia/Stern Group
397
9.1%
Norpac
350
8.0%
NewPage
256
5.9%
UPM
NPI USA
242
163
5.6%
3.7%
White Birch
FutureMark Paper
Group
133
3.1%
112
2.6%
Atlas Holdings
82
1.9%
Rank Group
24
0.6%
Inland Empire
Tembec
20
20
0.5%
0.5%
Verso
0.2%
0.1%
Total
4,348
Source: RISI, PPPC
Company
Tonnes (000)
Mkt. Share
UPM
2,925
20.1%
Stora Enso
1,705
11.7%
Resolute
1,273
8.7%
Holmen
832
5.7%
Norske Skog
665
4.6%
Catalyst
595
4.1%
Heinzel
530
3.6%
452
3.1%
Irving
419
2.9%
Stern Group
360
2.5%
H2 Equity Partners
265
1.8%
Verso
232
Marusumi
213
1.6%
Source: PPPC
1.5%
Uncoated Freesheet
Source: RISI
Boise ; 9%
Int'l Paper ; 25%
All Others; 8%
U.S. UFS market demand -2.4% in January, and expected to fall ~ -3% in
2015.
Total exports in 2014 were down -7.8% vs. 2013 (IP-Courtland, AL).
$1,050
$1,025
$1,000
$975
$950
$925
$900
$875
$850
$825
$800
$775
$750
$725
$700
$675
Jan
Feb
Mar
2006
Apr
2006
May
2006
Jun
2006
Jul
2006
Aug
2006
S2006
ep
Oct
2006
Nov
2006
Dec
2006
Jan
2006
Feb
2006
Mar
2007
Apr
2007
May
2007
Jun
2007
Jul
2007
Aug
2007
S2007
ep
Oc
2007
Nov
2007
tDec
2007
Jan
2007
Feb
2007
Mar
2008
Apr
2008
May
2008
Jun
2008
Jul
2008
Aug
2008
S2008
ep
Oct
2008
Nov
2008
Dec
2008
Jan
2008
Feb
2008
Mar
2009
Apr
2009
May
2009
Jun
2009
Jul
2009
Aug
2009
S2009
ep
Oc
2009
Nov
2009
tDec
2009
Jan
2009
Feb
2009
Mar
2010
Apr
2010
May
2010
Jun
2010
Jul
2010
Aug
2010
S2010
ep
Oct
2010
Nov
2010
Dec
2010
Jan
2010
Feb
2010
Mar
2011
Apr
2011
May
2011
June
2011
July
2011
Aug
2011
S2011
ep
Oct
2011
Nov
2011
Dec
2011
Jan
2011
Feb
2011
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
May
2012
June
2012
July
2012
Aug
2012
S2012
ep
Oc
2012
Nov
2012
tDec
2012
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2013
Apr
2013
May
2013
June
2013
July
2013
Aug
2013
S2013
ep
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Dec
2013
Jan
2013
Feb
March
2013
2014
April
2014
May
June
2014
2014
July
2014
Aug
S
2014
ept
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
2014
2014
$/ADMT$750
$700
$650
$600
$550
NBSK '06
NBSK '07
NBSK '08
NBSK '09
NBSK '10
NBSK '11
NBSK '12
NBSK '13
NBSK '14
NBSK '15
Rank Company
1 International Paper
2 Asia Pulp & Paper
3 Domtar
4 Nippon Paper Group
5 Mondi
6 Portucel
7 UPM
8 Stora Enso
9 APRIL
10 Shandong Chenming Pap. Holdings
11 Double A
12 PCA
13 Oji Paper Holdings
14 Koch Industries
15 Shandong Huatai Paper Grp
16 Ballarpur Industries
17 Sun Paper
18 Shandong Tralin Group
19 Glatfelter
20 Tiger Forest & Paper
Market Data
Catalogs Mailed
- 1.1% decrease in catalogs mailed in 2014 vs. 2013
-1.0% total circulation reduction predicted in 2015
6,000
5%
Catalogs Mailed (millions)
%CHYA
0%
5,000
-5%
4,000
-10%
3,000
-15%
-20%
2,000
-25%
1,000
-30%
-35%
Source: RISI
0.0%
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
-5.0%
-10.0%
%Ch Year Ago
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-30.0%
Source: RISI
Retail Sales
450,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
350,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
250,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
Consumption, Shipments,
Operating2009
Rates
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CFS
Consumptio
n
3,559
4,280
4,430
3,952
(- 4.3%)
3,919
(-0.8%)
CGW
Consumptio
n
4,144
4,133
3,803
(-8.0)
3,829
(-0.7%)
3,555
(-7.2%)
Uncoated
Mechanical
Consumptio
n
5,031
4,958
4,647
3,809
(- 18.1%)
3,940
3.4%
U.S. CGW
Operating
Rates
81%
95%
94%
91%
91%
94%
U.S. CFS
Operating
Rates
82%
96%
92%
88%
88%
90%
Uncoated
Mechanical
Operating
Rates
81%
95%
93%
92%
99%
95%
3,900
(-0.7%)
3,252
(7.8%)
3,884
(2.7%)
2011
2012
2013
2014
Magazine Ad
Pages
-0.1%
-3.1%
-8.2%
-4.1%
-10.4%
Commercial
Printing
0.1%
-4.3%
-1.6%
-0.6%
2.3%
Catalogs
Mailed
-1.8%
-5.4%
-0.6%
-3.0%
-1.1%
Source: RISI
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1.8%
2.8%
1.9%
2.4%
3.3%e
2.1%
3.2%
1.69%
2.13%
3.03%
1.91%
2.39%
2.53%
102
94
98
78.37
49.52
75
71
3.1%
2.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.2%
2.3%
2.1%
0.61
0.78
0.93
1.00
1.28
1.66
1.54
67
76.5
83
92.6
95.4
92.4
91.4
9.0%
8.1%
7.1%
5.8%
5.7%
5.7%
5.5%
Ad Spending, By Region
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
North America
$162,165,000
2.7%
$165,104,000
1.8%
$172,039,000
4.2%
$178,313,000
3.6%
$186,344,000
4.5%
Western Europe
$106,344,000
5.4%
$108,104,000
2.2%
$107,885,000
(0.7%)
$109,668,000
1.7%
$112,642,000
2.7%
Central / Eastern
Europe
$24,181,000
9.3%
$26,151,000
8.1%
$26,631,000
1.8%
$28,592,000
7.4%
$31,089,000
8.7%
$125,059,000
10.6%
$132,172,000
5.7%
$140,383,000
6.2%
$148,423,000
5.7%
$157,155,000
5.9%
$31,996,000
18.5%
$35,344,000
10.5%
$38,080,000
7.7%
$41,935,000
10.1%
$45,600,000
8.7%
Middle East /
North Africa
$4,881,000
7.7%
$4,155,000
(14.9%)
$4,198,000
1.0%
$4,313,000
2.8%
$4,412,000
2.3%
Rest of the
World
$10,940,000
16.2%
$11,592,000
6.0%
$12,321,000
6.3%
$13,468,000
9.3%
$14,812,000
10.0%
Global Total
$465,566,000
7.0%
$483,206,000
3.8%
$501,536,000
3.8%
$524,712,000
4.6%
$552,054,000
5.2%
Asia Pacific
Latin America