Changing University
50%
40%
30%
20%
H.S. Grads
10%
0%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Sources: HESO and UM data warehouse
Cumulative % Change in
UMTC MN Applicants vs. Pool, 1994-2004
70%
Applicants
60%
50%
40%
ACT Takers
30%
20%
H.S. Grads
10%
0%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: UM NSCR Files
Percentage of Big 10 New Freshmen in Top 10%
of Their High School Classes
Michigan
Northwestern
Illinois
Wisconsin
Penn St
Minnesota
Ohio St
Purdue
Michigan St
Iowa
Indiana
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan
Illinois
Ohio St
Purdue
Minnesota
Iowa
Michigan St
Indiana
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
UM Morris
UM Duluth
Winona St
Southwest St
MSU Moorhead
Bemidji St
MSU Mankato
St. Cloud St
UM Crookston
Minnesota
UM Morris
UM Duluth
MSU Moorhead
Southwest St
Bemidji St
MSU Mankato
UM Crookston
Non-MN Private
UW Madison
MN Private
Non-MN Public
Other UW Campus
Other UM Campus
MNSCU
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Sources: HESO graduation files; UMTC data warehouse; 2004 figures are estimates
UMTC Freshman Students of Color:
2004 (est.) versus 2003
2003 2004*
Communicated via e-
mail
Communicated via
instant messaging
1999 2003
Source: F1999 & F2003 UMTC CIRP Surveys
3. Access and Quality
• Over the past decade, the University increased
enrollment beyond increases in the numbers of
high school graduates
• The next decade presents challenges:
– Declining numbers of high school graduates
– Sharp decline in Greater MN numbers
– Sharp increase in proportion of students of color
– Threats to affordability
Cumulative % Change in UMTC MN Applicants
And Enrollees vs. Pool, 1994-2004
70%
Applicants
60%
50%
40%
30%
ACT Takers
Enrollees
20% H.S. Grads
10%
0%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Sources: HESO and UM data warehouse
MN H.S. Graduates 1988-2018
65,000
63,000
61,000
59,000
57,000
"Baby Boomlet"
55,000 +Inmigration
53,000 Graduates will decline in 2005,
51,000 rise briefly and then fall to
below 1998 levels in 2013 before
49,000 starting up again.
"Baby Bust"
47,000
45,000
88
90
92
94
96
98
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
18
00
16
19
19
20
20
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Sources: 1988-2002 data are actual from MN HESO. 2003 combines actual public and WICHE-estimated private. 2004-2013 are WICHE estimates
Percentage Change in MN H.S. Grads by Region,
2003-2013
Reg 11: Twin Cities
Reg 9: Mankato
Reg 8: Marshall
Reg 6: Willmar
Reg 5: Brainerd
Reg 4: Moorhead
Reg 3: Duluth
Reg 2: Bemidji
60%
50%
40% In 2003, 1 in 8 MN H.S.
graduates was a student of
30% color. In 2013, 1 in 5 will be.
20%
10%
0%
Am Ind Asian/Pac African Am Chic/Lat SOC White
Source: Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, WICHE, 12/03
Freshman Concern about Finances:
UM SOC, UM Other, and Other Schools
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Selective UM All UM SOC UM Other
Publics
22%
21%
20%
19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Access and Quality:
Conclusions
• In the past decade, the UM undergraduate
student body became larger, better prepared,
and more diverse.
• In the next decade we will be challenged by:
– Decreasing numbers of high school graduates
– Increasing proportions of students of color
– Continually increasing costs
• Our commitments to both access and quality
will be strongly tested