HYDROLOGY

CHAPTER 7:
Hydrological Forecasting

Introduction

Engineer designs and constructs work to

predict for future needs
The structural designer is working with
homogeneous materials
The electrical system designer has to
extrapolate the rising demand curve of
recent years
The hydraulic engineer on the other
hand is dealing, in reservoir design

Floods

Flood Formula

The formulae are empirical by nature,

derived from observed floods on
particular catchments and usually of the
form
Q = CAn
Q = flood discharge in m3/s (or ft3/s)
A= catchments area in km2 (or mile2)
n= an index usually between 0.5 and 1.25
C = a coefficient depending on climate, catchment and units

An early example of such a formula

due to Dickens was developed in India
Q = 825a0.75

with Q in ft3/s and a in square miles

The formula takes no account of soil
moisture, rainfall, slope, altitude

Morgan [63] proposed the formula

for a catastrophic flood in Scotland
and Wales of
Q = 3000M0.5

where Q is in ft3/s and M is

catchments area in square mile
The sophistication of a recurrence
period T (in years) by quoting

design flood = catastrophic flood x (T/500)1/8

Formula by Fuller (USA)

Qav = CA0.8

A is catchment area in square miles

C is a coefficient often taken as 75
Qav is average value of annual
flood discharge in ft3/s

The value Of Qav is then

substituted in the formula
Qm = Qav(1 + 0.8 log T)
where T is a return period in years and Qm is the
'most probable annual maximum flood

Floods

Floods

Probability
A measure of how likely an event will
occur
A number expressing the ratio of
favorable outcome to the all possible
outcomes
Probability is usually represented as P(.)
P (getting a club from a deck of playing cards) = 13/52 =
0.25 = 25 %
P (getting a 3 after rolling a dice) = 1/6

10

Random Variable
Random variable: a quantity used to
represent probabilistic uncertainty
Incremental precipitation
Instantaneous streamflow
Wind velocity

Random variable (X) is described by a

probability distribution
Probability distribution is a set of probabilities
associated with the values in a random
variables sample space
11

Sampling terminology
Sample: a finite set of observations x1, x2,.., xn of
the random variable
A sample comes from a hypothetical infinite
population possessing constant statistical properties
Sample space: set of possible samples that can be
drawn from a population
Event: subset of a sample space
Example
Population: streamflow
Sample space: instantaneous streamflow,
annual maximum streamflow, daily average
streamflow
Sample: 100 observations of annual max.
streamflow
13

Summary statistics
Also called descriptive statistics
If x1, x2, xn is a sample then
Mean,

Variance,
Standard
deviation,

1 n
X xi
n i 1
1 n
S
xi X
n 1 i 1
2

for continuous
data
2

for continuous
data
for continuous
data

Coeff. of
variation,

Also included in summary statistics are median, skewness,

correlation coefficient,

14

Graphical display

Time Series plots

Histograms/Frequency distribution
Cumulative distribution functions
Flow duration curve

16

Time series plot

Plot of variable versus time (bar/line/points)
Example. Annual maximum flow series

Annual Max Flow (10 3 cfs)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1905
1900

1908 1900
1918

1927
19001938

1948
1900 1958

1968
1900

1978 1900
1988

Year
Year

Colorado River near Austin

17

1998
1900

Histogram
Plots of bars whose height is the number n i, or
fraction (ni/N), of data falling into one of
several intervals of equal width
30
60
100

90

50
25
No. ofoccurences
occurences
No.
No. of
of occurences

80

Interval = 50,000
cfs
Interval
Interval
==
10,000
25,000 cfs
cfs

70
40
20
60
30
15
50

40

20
10

30

1020
5

10

0
00
0

0 50 50 100100 150
150 200
200 250
250

300
300

350 400
400 450
450 500
500
350

3 3 3cfs)
Annual
ax
flow
(10
Annual
ax
flow
Annualmm
m
ax
flow(10
(10cfs)
cfs)

Dividing the number of occurrences with the total number of points will
give Probability Mass Function 18

Using Excel to plot histograms

1) Make sure Analysis Tookpak is added in
Tools.
This will add data analysis command in
Tools
2) Fill one column with the data, and
another with the intervals (eg. for 50 cfs
interval, fill 0,50,100,)
3) Go to ToolsData
AnalysisHistogram

4) Organize the plot in a

presentable form (change fonts,
scale, color, etc.)

20

Probability density function

Continuous form of probability mass function is
probability density function
0.9
100

90
0.8
No. of
occurences
Probability

80
0.7
70

0.6

60

0.5

50

0.4

40

0.3

30

0.2
20
0.1
10
00
0

50
100 100

150
200

200 300
250

300 400350

400500450

500
600

3 3 cfs)
Annualmm
flow(10
(10
Annual
axaxflow
cfs)

pdf is the first derivative of a cumulative distribution

21
function

Cumulative distribution
function

Cumulate the pdf to produce a cdf

Cdf describes the probability that a random
variable is less than or equal to specified value of x
1

P (Q 50000) = 0.8

Probability

0.8

P (Q 25000) = 0.4

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0

100

200

300

400

Annual m ax flow (103 cfs)

23

500

600

 Extreme events
Floods
Droughts

Magnitude of extreme events is related to

their frequency of occurrence
Magnitude

1
Frequency of occurence

The objective of frequency analysis is to relate

the magnitude of events to their frequency of
occurrence through probability distribution
It is assumed the events (data) are
independent and come from identical
distribution
27

Return Period

X
Random variable:
Threshold level: xT
X if:xT
Extreme event occurs
Time between ocurrences of X x
Recurrence interval:
E ( )
Return Period:

Average recurrence interval between events

equalling or exceeding a threshold

If p is the probability of occurrence of an

1
extreme event,
E ( ) T then
p

or

1
P ( X xT )
T

28

More on return period

If p is probability of success, then (1-p) is
the probability of failure
Find probability that (X xT) at least once
in N years.
p P ( X xT )
P ( X xT ) (1 p)
P ( X xT at least once in N years) 1 P( X xT all N years)
1
P ( X xT at least once in N years) 1 (1 p) 1 1
T

29

Hydrologic data
series
Complete duration series
All the data available

Partial duration series

Magnitude greater than base
value

Annual exceedance series

Partial duration series with # of
values = # years

Extreme value series

Includes largest or smallest
values in equal intervals
Annual series: interval = 1 year
Annual maximum series: largest
values
Annual minimum series :
smallest values
30

Return period example

Dataset annual maximum discharge for
106 years on Colorado River near Austin
xT = 200,000 cfs

Annual Max Flow (10 3 cfs)

600

No. of occurrences = 3

500

2 recurrence intervals
in 106 years

400
300

T = 106/2 = 53 years

200
100
0
1905

If xT = 100, 000 cfs

1908

1918

1927

1938

1948

1958

1968

1978

Year

1988

1998

7 recurrence intervals
T = 106/7 = 15.2 yrs

P( X 100,000 cfs at least once in the next 5 years) = 1- (1-1/15.2)5 = 0.29

31

Probability distributions
Normal family
Normal, lognormal, lognormal-III

Generalized extreme value family

EV1 (Gumbel), GEV, and EVIII (Weibull)

Exponential/Pearson type family

Exponential, Pearson type III, LogPearson type III

32

Normal distribution
Central limit theorem

if X is the sum of n
independent and identically distributed random
variables with finite variance, then with
increasing n the distribution of X becomes normal
regardless of the distribution of random variables
pdf for normal distribution

1
f X ( x)
e
2

1 x

is the mean and is the standard

deviation

Hydrologic variables such as annual precipitation, annual average

streamflow, or annual average pollutant loadings follow normal distribution
33

Standard Normal
distribution
A standard normal distribution is a
normal distribution with mean () = 0
and standard deviation () = 1
Normal distribution is transformed to
standard normal distribution by using
the following formula:
z

z is called the standard normal variable

34

Lognormal distribution
If the pdf of X is skewed,
its not normally
distributed
If the pdf of Y = log (X) is
normally distributed, then
X is said to be
lognormally
distributed.
( y )2
1
f ( x)

exp

x 2

y
2
y

x 0, and y log x

Hydraulic conductivity, distribution of raindrop sizes in storm

follow lognormal distribution.

35

Extreme value (EV)

distributions
Extreme values maximum or
minimum values of sets of data
Annual maximum discharge, annual
minimum discharge
When the number of selected extreme
values is large, the distribution
converges to one of the three forms of
EV distributions called Type I, II and III
36

EV type I distribution
If M1, M2, Mn be a set of daily rainfall or streamflow,
and let X = max(Mi) be the maximum for the year. If
Mi are independent and identically distributed, then
for large n, X has an extreme value type I or Gumbel
distribution.
f ( x)

x u
1
x u
exp
exp

6sx

u x 0.5772

Distribution of annual maximum streamflow follows an EV1

distribution
37

EV type III distribution

If Wi are the minimum
streamflows in different days
of the year, let X = min(Wi)
be the smallest. X can be
described by the EV type III
or Weibull distribution.
k x
f ( x)

k 1

exp

x 0; , k 0

Distribution of low flows (eg. 7-day min flow)

follows EV3 distribution.

38

Exponential distribution
Poisson process a stochastic
process in which the number of
events occurring in two disjoint
subintervals are independent
random variables.
In hydrology, the interarrival
time (time between stochastic
hydrologic events) is described
by exponential distribution

f ( x ) e

1
x 0;
x

Interarrival times of polluted runoffs, rainfall intensities, etc are described by

exponential distribution.
39

Gamma Distribution
The time taken for a number of
events () in a Poisson process
is described by the gamma
distribution
Gamma distribution a
distribution of sum of
independent and identical
exponentially distributed
random variables.
x 1e x
f ( x)
( )

x 0; gamma function

Skewed distributions (eg. hydraulic

conductivity) can be represented using
gamma without log transformation.
40

Pearson Type III

Named after the statistician Pearson, it
is also called three-parameter gamma
distribution. A lower bound is introduced
through the third parameter ()
( x ) 1 e ( x )
f ( x)
( )

x ; gamma function

It is also a skewed distribution first applied in hydrology

for describing the pdf of annual maximum flows.
41

Log-Pearson Type III

If log X follows a Person Type III
distribution, then X is said to have a
log-Pearson Type III distribution
( y ) 1 e ( y )
f ( x)
( )

y log x

42

Frequency Analysis
1)Series of events
-The method of statistics to extend
the available data and hence predict
the likely frequency of occurrence of
natural events.
-Another point for emphasis is the
noncyclical nature of random event

-The 100 yr flood, may occur next

year, or not for 200 years or may
be exceeded several times in the
next 100 years

-It is particularly important to

define what is meant by an event

Annual and Partial duration series event

Suppose from the 10 year record

we extract in each year the
maximum event
One calendar year might contain
two water-year peaks, so it is
necessary to specify that water
years should be used in defining
events

Series is used depending on the

purpose of the analysis.

Full series events are most

valuable in design where quantity
rather than peak values are
required

2).Probability of The N-yr

event

The term recurrence interval

(also called the return period),
denoted by Tr, is the time which,
on average, elapses between two
events which equal or exceed a
particular level

Let the probability P(X x) represent

the probability
that x will not be
equalled or exceeded in a certain period
of time.
Then P(X x)n will represent the
probability that x will not be equalled or
exceeded in n such periods.

For an independent series and from

the multiple probability rule
P(X x)n = [P(X x)]n
= [1 - P(X x)]n
P(X x)n = 1 [1-P(X x)]n

Now
Tr

P(X x)n

1
P(X x)
= 1 [1 (1/Tr)]n

So, for example, the probability of

X x, where x is the value of a
flood with a return period of 20
years, occurring in a particular 3
years
period
P(X
> 20 yr
flood)3 =is
1 [1 1/20]3
= 1 [0.95]3
= I 0.857
= 0.143 or 14.3%

Percentage probability of the Nyear flood

occurring in a particular period

If the probability P(X x)n is

defined by a policy ruling, the value
of n, the design period, may be
found from
P(X x)n
= 1 [1 (1/Tr)]n

1 - P(X x)n

= [1 (1/Tr)]n = [(Tr - 1)/ Tr]n

log (1 - P(X x)n) = n log [(Tr - 1)/ Tr]

n = log (1 - P(X x)n)
log [(Tr - 1)/ Tr]

3)Probability Plotting

. The recurrence interval Tr (in years)

of each event is now computed from
Weibull formula:
Tr = n + 1
m

where m = event ranking, and n = no. of events.

Various other formulae are used in

place of Eq. (9.1) which is most
commonly used: for example, the
California formula [64]

Tr = n
m
and Hazen's formula [65]
Tr =

2n
2m 1

Cunnane suggested [66}:

Tr = n+0.2
m-0.4

Maximum mean daily flows for water years

1882-1967, for R.Thames at Teddington(n=85)

(a) Q v. Tr may be plotted on

simple
plane
coordinates.
An
example of this is illustrated in Fig.
7.2 where the River Thames data of
Table 7.2 has been plotted. The
extrapolation of the curve to high Q
and Tr values depends almost
entirely on the few highest existing
points.

Types of PDF Models

1) Normal Distribution
-PDF equation for normal distribution is

where z is the standard normal variate

It can be illustrated in a form of curve

distribution

Q linear and Tr logarithmically. The same

data has now been plotted in Fig. 7.3 and a
straight line fitted to it.. However, unless the
return period follows a logarithmic law, it
does not necessarily provide more accurate
extrapolation

Annual maximum daily flow

of River
Thames at Teddington,
1882-1967.

Another approach is to assume that the events

have a normal distribution, so that on normal
probability paper (due to Hazen [66] they will
plot along a straight line. It should be noted that
the Tr scale has now become probability P. P is
the probability of the corresponding value of Q
being equaled or exceeded in any one year.

Annual maximum daily flow

of River Thames at
Teddington, 1882-1967
(semi log).

(d)

A variation of this approach is to

assume that the logarithm of the variate
(Q) is normally distributed and this leads
to the use of a logarithmic-normal
distribution or log-normal paper (first
used by Whipple [67].)

Annual maximum daily flow

of River Thames
at Teddington,
1882-1967 (normal probability).

Annual maximum daily flow of River Thames at

Teddington, 1882-1967
(log normal).

Probability Density Function

PDF

Hydrological data can be

presented graphically to form a
histogram of relative frequency
against the x value

Probability plots
Probability plot is a graphical tool to
assess whether or not the data fits a
particular distribution.
The data are fitted against a theoretical
distribution in such as way that the points
should form approximately a straight line
(distribution function is linearized)
Departures from a straight line indicate
departure from the theoretical distribution
64

Normal probability plot

Steps
1. Rank the data from largest (m = 1) to smallest (m
= n)
2. Assign plotting position to the data
1. Plotting position an estimate of exccedance probability
2. Use p = (m-3/8)/(n + 0.15)

3. Find the standard normal variable z corresponding

to the plotting position (use -NORMSINV (.) in
Excel)
4. Plot the data against z

If the data falls on a straight line, the data

comes from a normal distributionI
65

Normal Probability Plot

Annual maximum flows for Colorado River near

Austin, TX

The pink line you see on the plot is xT for T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50,
100, 500 derived using the frequency factor technique for normal
66
distribution.

If x is the min value and is the

standard deviation, then the x
event value for a return period is,
x = x + z .

z value for F(z) can be referred

from the normal distribution table that
can be obtained from statistical books.

2). Gumbel Distribution

-Gumbel distribution model has
it own importance in
hydrological analysis because at
least two related events happen

The
PDF
equation
distribution is,
F(z) = e

-e-b(z - a)

for

Gumbel

where a = scale parameter for

moment
and
b
=
location
parameter for moment

a = x - /b = 0.5772

b = - /( 6)

If the PDF F(z) equation is used to solve any z

event in terms of P(z) or Tr(z), therefore
frequency factor is introduced, K(z) as the
following equation:

Therefore, z value
determined as

for

any

Tr(z)

can

be

Frequency analysis for extreme

Q. Find a flow (or any other event) that has a return
events
period of T years
f ( x)

x u
1
x u
exp
exp

6sx

u x 0.5772

Define a reduced
variable y

x u
F ( x) exp exp

EV1 pdf and

cdf

xu
y

F ( x) exp exp( y )
y ln ln F ( x) ln ln(1 p) where p P(x xT )

1
yT ln ln 1
T

If you know T, you can find yT, and once yT is know, xT can
be computed by

xT u yT

72

Example 12.2.1

Given annual maxima for 10minute storms

Find 5- & 50-year return period 10minute storms

x 0.649 in
s 0.177 in

6s
6 * 0.177

0.138

u x 0.5772 0.649 0.5772 * 0.138 0.569

T
5
y5 ln ln
ln ln
1.5
T 1
5 1
x5 u y5 0.569 0.138 *1.5 0.78 in
x50 1.11in

73

Frequency Factors

Once a distribution has been selected

and its parameters estimated, then how
do we use it?
Chow proposed using:
xT x KT s

wherex

Estimated event magnitude

KT Frequency factor
T Return period
x Sample mean
s Sample standard deviation

fX(x)

x
KT s

x
74

Normal Distribution

Normal distribution

1
f X ( x)
e
2

1 x

xT x
KT
zT
s

So the frequency factor for the Normal

Distribution is the standard normal variate
xT x K T s x zT s

Example: 50 year return period

T 50; p

1
0.02; K 50 z50 2.054
50

Look in Table 11.2.1 or use

NORMSINV (.) in EXCEL or see
page 390 in the text book

75

EV-I (Gumbel) Distribution

x u
F ( x) exp exp

6s

u x 0.5772

xT u yT
T
6
6
s
s ln ln

T
6
x
s
0.5772 ln ln

T 1
x 0.5772

xT x KT s
KT

6
T

0.5772 ln ln

T 1

76

T
yT ln ln

T 1

Example 12.3.2

Given annual maximum rainfall,

calculate 5-yr storm using frequency
factor6
T
KT
KT

0.5772 ln ln

T 1

5
6
0
.
5772

ln
ln

0.719

xT x K T s
0.649 0.719 0.177
0.78 in

77

Quiz

Determine Qp for 10, 50, 100 and 200 year using Gumbel E
Probablity of Qp is > 2500 m3/s for the next 15 years.
Determine the ARI of Qp > 1500 m3/s.

ar

478

252

926

1760 430

2120 1200 284

10

212 317

11

12

13

14

549

392

631

1320

3/s)

Year
Q
(m3/s)

15
970

16
438

17
954

18
19
20
1220 2040 796

21
22
1500 59
3

23
484

24
347

25
160
0

26
65
4

27
51
3

28
85
8