Lec 9, TD part 2: ch5.4.1 & H/O, pp.

460477: Trip Generation

TD: Part 2 topics

Estimating the number of trips generated by

zonal activities
Trip generation estimate by regression analysis
Trip generation estimates by trip rates/unit
Trip generation estimates by category analysis
Method to balance trip productions and
attractions

What is trip generation?

It is the process by
which measures of
urban activity are
converted into numbers
of trips.
In trip generation, the
planner attempts to
quantify the
relationship between
urban activity and
It means both trip
travel.
productions and
trip attractions.

A zone produces and attracts trips

Zone i
# of
dwelling
units
Shopping
center
employees
Etc.

Depending on the activities in

the zone, it can produce and/or
attract trips. Transportation
planners estimate these trips

Three ways for estimating the number of

trips produced
Regression models

Y A B1 X 1 B2 X 2 ...

Y = dependent var.
(trips/household)
X1, X2, etc. =
independent variables

(Fig. 5.10 of the text)

Trip rates, like # of trips/1000ft2, ITEs
trip generation rates (Tab. 5.2 &Fig. 5.10
of the text)
Category analysis (cross-classification
analysis)

Regression models (often, simple or

multiple linear models): advantages and
disadvantages
Easy and relatively inexpensive.
Correlation among independent (explanatory) variables
may create estimation problems If correlated, choose
only the variable(s) that has the highest correlation with
the dependent variable. Stepwise regression may help to
find it.
The assumptions of linearity and additive impacts on
trip generation may be wrong.
Best fit equations may yield counterintuitive results
(see Eq. 5-11 of Meyer & Miller).
By using zonal averages, important socioeconomic
variations within the zone may be obscured or may yield
spurious results.

Regression models (cont): something

you want to be aware
A high R2 (Coefficient of determination) by itself
mans little if the t-test is marginal or poor,
Just having a large number of independent variables
does not mean very much. Choose only the
independent variable that have highest correlation
with the dependent variable and low correlation
among the independent variables.
Check the coefficients are logical or not. Trip
generation is never negative in reality no matter
what value the independent variable has.
See the EXCEL file.
Then, we will go through Example 1 to get some
hints.

Trip generation
rates

This is an example of
trip generation rate
information taken
from the ITE Trip
Generation
Handbook. Some land
use has a lot of data
points like this one,
but others (many of
them) have only
sparse data points.
This handbook is
evolving and every
year new data are
added.

Category analysis

(cross-classification

analysis)

(Groups individual HHs according to common

socioeconomic characteristics, see p.275 of the
text)

Less aggregated than trip rates and regression

models
See the list of advantages and disadvantages in
the book to see why this is popular (p.277 of the
text)
HB Trip Production example
Worker
s/HH

1.418

1.413

1.550

1.655

2.855

2.661

2.693

3.891

4.154

2
3

Household size

See Examples 2 & 3. of C2.

Trip attraction
Trip attraction rates can be made by
analyzing the urban activities that
attract trips.
Trips are attracted to various
locations, depending on the character
of, location, and amount of activities
taking place in a zone.
Three tools are used for this end too,
but obviously types of independent
variables used are different.
We will do go over Example 4.
Also see Table 11-5 ( c) in the
handout.

Control totals (ch5. P.277)

The area-wide production and attraction must be the
same. In general they are not the same after calculation
because trip production and attraction are estimated
separately by different models with different variables.

CT p Pz Pe Ae
I-E trips
(Pe)
I-I trips (Pz)

E-I trips (Ae)

CTp = control total of productions

Pz = trip productions for each zone
Pe = trip productions at each external station
Ae = trip attractions at each external station

Compute the factor used

to balance productions &
attractions.

Factor

(See Figure 5.11 of the

CT p