Human reliability in engineering

systems

introuduction

In 1958 williams recognized that human element

reliability must be included in overall system reliability.
In 1960 proved that human error is the cause for %20 to
%50 of all equipment failure.
In 1962,a database known as DATA STORE containing
time and human performance reliability estimates for
human engineering design features was established.
In 1973,ieee transaction on reliability published a
special issue on human reliability.
In 1980,a selective bibliography on human reliability
was published covering the period from 1958 to 1978.
The first book on human reliability entitled human
reliability with human factors appeared in 1986.

Terms and definitions

Human error:this is the failure to perform a given task

that could resault in the disruption of scheduled operations
or damage to property and equipment.
Human performance: this is a measure of human
functions subject to specified conditions.
Continuous task: this is a task that involves some sort of
tracking activity: for example, monitoring a changing
situation.
Human reliability: this is the probability of accomplishing
a task successfully by the human at any required stage in
system operations within a stated minimum time.

Human error occurrence

examples

Human operator accounted for over %90 of the

documented air traffic control system errors.
Over %50 of all technical medical equipment problems
are due to operator errors.
Up to %90 of accidents both generally and in medical
devices are caused by human mistakes.
A study of 23000 defects in the production of nuclear
components revealed that approximately %82 of the
defects were due to human errors.
During the period from june 1,1973 to june 30,1975,401
human errors occurred in U.S commercial light water
nuclear reactors.

Human error occurrence types:

Design errors: these types of errors are the result of inadequate

design. for example the placement of controls and displays so
far apart that an operator is unable to use them in an effective
manner.
Operator errors :these errors are the result of operator mistakes
and the conditions that lead to operator errors include lack of
proper procedures ,complex tax ,poor training and operator
carelessness.
Assembly errors: these errors occur during product assembly due
to humans.
Inspection errors: these errors occur because of less than %100
accuracy of inspectors.
Maintenance errors: the errors occur in the field due to
oversights by the maintenance personnel.
Installations errors: these errors occur due to various reasons
including using the wrong installation related blueprints or
instructions.
Handling errors: these errors basically occur because of
inadequate storage or transportation facilities.

Causes for the occurrence of human

errors:

Poor motivation of involved personnel.

Poor training or skill of concerned personnel.
Poor equipment design.
Inadequate or poorly written equipment operating and
maintenance procedures.
Poor job environment: poor lighting ,high/low
temperature ,high noise level ,crowded work space,
,etc.
Inadequate work tools.
Complex tasks.
Poor work layout

Human error occurrence

classification:

decision error: occur when the wrong decision is made after

considering the situation.
Action error: are the result of no action ,incorrect action ,or the
performance of correct action on the wrong object when required.
Transmission error: occur when information that must be
passed or to others is not send ,sent incorrectly ,or sent to the
wrong destination.
Checking error: occur when system require checks,the incorrect
checks are made ,checks are omitted ,or correct checks are made
on the wrong object.
Diagnostic errors :are the result of misinterpreting the actual
situation when an abnormal event occurs.
Retrieval errors :occur when required information either from
an individual,an individual memory,or from any other reference
source is not received or the incorrect information is recieved.

Factors that influence on human

performance:

Reaction to stress
Time at work
Fatigue
Group interaction and identification
Social pressure
Repetitive work
Supervisors expectations
Morale
Social interaction
Crew efficiency
Idle time

Stress factors and operator stress characteristics

Dissatisfied with the current job.

Faced with serious financial problems.
Working with individuals having unpredictable
temperaments.
Low chance of promotion from current position.
facing a possible work layoff.
Current job below ability and experience.
Conducting tasks under extremely tight time schedules.
Having health problems.
Excessive demands of superior.
Inadequate expertise to conduct the tasks required in the
current job.
Often tasks work home to meet deadlines.
Having difficulties with spouse/children.

The operator stress

characteristics include:

short decision making time

Several displays difficult to discriminate.
Requirement to perform steps at high speed
Poor feedback for the determination of accuracy of
actions taken.
Requirement for prolonged monitoring.
Very long sequence of steps required to perform a task.
Requirement to make decisions on the basis of data
obtain from various different sources.
Requirement to operate at high speed more than one
control simultaneously.

Human performance reliability in

continuous time and mean time to human
error (mtthe) measure

As humans perform time continuous tasks such

as aircraft maneuvering ,scope monitoring ,and
missile countdown, a general expression for
human performance reliability can be
developed the same way as for the
development of the general classical reliability
functions.

Human reliability
evaluation methods

Probability tree method: this is used to perform

task analysis by diagrammatically representing
critical human actions and other events
associated with the system.

Fault tree method: this special case has been

discussed in the class.

Markov method: this is a powerful reliability

engineering tool that can also be used to perform
time continuous human reliability analysis.

Human reliability markov

modeling

Reliability analysis of a system with human

error: this mathematical model represent a
system which can fail either due to hardware
failure or to a human error.

Reliability analysis of a human performing a

time continuous task under fluctuating
environment: this mathematical method
represents a human performing a time
continuous task under fluctuating environment.

Human error data

Human reliability predictions are only as effective as the

body of quantitative on which they are made.

The collection and maintenance of human error data are

at least as important as making various types of human
reliability predictions.

Means to collecting human

error data

Experimental studies.

Expert judgments.

Self made error reports.

Human data recorder.

Automatic data recorder.

Published literature.

Human error data

Specific human error data banks and

sources

Human error data for selective tasks

Brief description of selected human

eror data banks

Specific human error data

banks and sources

Data store
Operational performance recording and evaluation data
system
Nuclear plant reliability data system
Aerojet general method
Aviation safety reporting system
Bunker ramo tables
Safety related operator action program
Technique for establishing personnel performance
standards

Brief description of selected

human error data banks

Data store: the data store was established in 1962 by

american institute for research, pittsburgh and it contains
estimates for time and human performance reliability.

Aviation safety reporting system: originally this

databank was developed by the national aeronautics and
space administration (NASA) and contains information on
civil aircraft accidents.

Operational performance recording and

evaluation data system: this system was developed to
collect data on operational human performance by the
U.S navy electronics laboratory, san diego.

Learning from other fields:

PSTN

FCC-collected data on outages in the US public-switched

telephone network

metric: breakdown of customer calls blocked by system

outages (excluding natural disasters). Jan-June 2001
Human error accounts for 56% of all blocked
calls
9%

22%

Human-co.
Human-ext.
5%

Hardware Failure
Software Failure
47%

17%

Overload
Vandalism

Learning from other fields:

PSTN

PSTN trends: 1992-1994 vs. 2001

Cause

Trend

Minutes (millions of customer minutes/month)

1992-94

2001

Human error:
company

98

176

Human error:
external

100

75

49

49

15

12

314

60

Hardware
Software
Overload
Vandalism

MARKOV METHOD

Assumptions:
The probability of a transition occurrence from one state
to another in finite time t is t .The parameter in
our case is the constant human error rate.
The probability of two or more transitional occurrence in
t is negligible.
All occurrences are independent of each other .

MARKOV METHOD
System has two states.The she state 0 represent human
performing the time continuous task normally and state 1
denotes human committed error.

By using the MARKOV METHOD we can obtain the probabilites

of
the system being in state 1 or 0 at time t for known human
error
rate.
P0(t+ t)=P0 (t)(1- t)
P1(t+ t)=P1 (t)( t)+P1(t)

MARKOV METHOD

Rearranging and taking limits:

dp0(t)/d(t)=- p0(t)

dp1(t)/d(t)= p0(t)

At time t=0:

p0(0)=1
p0(t)=exp(- t)
p1(t)=1- exp(- t)

and

p1(0)=0

so:

Thus the human reliability R(t) is given by:

R(t)=p0(t)=exp(- t)

MARKOV METHOD

By integration over the time interval [0,]:

MTTHE=R(t) dt= 1/

HUMAN RELIABILITY
MARKOV MODELING:

This mathematical model represents a system which can be

failed due to a hardware failure or a human error.
Both failure rates are constant.
We have the following symbols:
h:the constant human error rate
nh:the constant nonhuman error rate
Pi(t): the probability that system is in state i at time t
i=0
system operating normally
i=1
system failed due to nonhuman error
i=2
system failed due to human error

HUMAN RELIABILITY
MARKOV MODELING:

By applying the Markov method:

dp0(t)/d(t)+ (h+ nh)p0(t)=0
dp1(t)/d(t)- nh p0(t)=0
dp2(t)/d(t)- h p0(t)=0
Solving the above equations we have:

P0(t)=exp(-(h+nh)t)

P1(t)= nh/(nh + h)[1-exp(-(h+ nh)t)]

P2(t)= h/(nh + h)[1-exp(-(h+ nh)t)]

The system reliability R(t) with human error is:

R(t)=p0(t)=exp(-(h+nh)t)

HUMAN RELIABILITY
MARKOV MODELING

By integrating over the time interval [0,]:

MTTF=

R(t)dt=1/h

Refrences:

Dhillon,B.S,design reliability,fundamentals and

applications,CRC press,1999

J. Reason, Human Error, Cambridge, 1990

www.eliminatemistakes.com

Human error in medicine,marc green ,2003

Thanks for your attention