Path Analysis

Path Diagram

Single headed arrow

Double headed bent arrow:

The model above assumes that all 5 variables are turned into z-scores (standardized)
It can be represented by a set of standardized STRUCTURAL (regression) equations:

Occ=.281*1stOc+.394*Ed+.115*FaOc+e1
1stOc=.440*Ed+.224*FaOc+e2
Ed=.279*FaOc+.310*FaEd+e3

a. Exogeneous vs. Endogeneous Variables

Exogenous variables are never dependent variables: FaOcc, FaEd
Endogenous variables are dependent variables at least once: Occ, 1stOc, Ed
b. Dependent vs, Independent Variables

runs from cause to effect

correlation

While the exogenous vs. endogenous distinction is with respect to the model as a whole, D vs. I variables are defined
with respect to individual equations

c. Recursive vs. Non-Recursive Models

A recursive model is one where the flow of causation is one-way: you start from any variable and if you follow the one
headed arrows, you cannot encounter the same variable twice

Structural Equations
error2
error1

1
1

reliten
Premarsx

absingle

Educ

Observed Variables

Unobserved
Variables

EQ1:

pyx= the path (standardized regression) coefficient of X in a regression where X is one independent and Y is the dependent variable

PREMARSX=a+b1*RELITEN+b2*EDUC+e
EQ2:
ABSINGLE=a+b1*RELITEN+b2EDUC+b3*PREMARSX+e
Standardized Structural Equations
EQ1:
Zpremarsx=ppr*Zreliten+ppe*Zeduc+e1
EQ2:
Zabsingle=par*Zreliten+pae*Zeduc+pap*Zpremarsx+e1

Normal Equations

for each equation the number of normal equations is K where K= number of independent variables

rvariable1, variable2= rvariable2,variable1

bivariate Pearsons correlation coefficient measuring the linear relationship between x and y

EQ1:
1)
rreliten,premarsx=ppr*rreliten,reliten+ppe*rreliten,educ+ rreliten,e1

rreliten,premarsx=ppr

+p pe*rreliten,educ

2)
reduc,premarsx=ppr*rreliten,educ

+ppe

as rreliten,reliten=1 and rreliten,e1=0

EQ2:
3)
rreliten,absingle =par

+p ae*rreliten,educ + pap*r reliten,premarsx,

4)
reduc,absingle

+pae

=par* reduc, reliten

+ p ap*reduc, premarsx

5)
rpremarsx,absingle=par* rpremarsx,reliten +pae*rpremarsx,educ+ pap

5 normal equations, 5 path coefficients: 5 equations, 5 unknowns:

JUST-IDENTIFIED model

Effects of Religion (RELITEN) on Support

for Abortion for Single Women (ABSINGLE)

Take the normal equation which has the correlation of RELITEN and ABSINGLE on the right-hand side (Normal
Equation #1) for EQ2).
rreliten,absingle =par +pae*rreliten,educ + pap*r reliten,premarsx,
Notice that
rreliten,premarsx=ppr +ppe*rreliten,educ

(Normal Equation #1 for EQ1).

So
rreliten,absingle =par + pae*rreliten,educ+

pap*( ppr +ppe*rreliten,educ)=

rreliten,absingle =par + pae*rreliten,educ+

pap* ppr +

pap*ppe*rreliten,educ

Total
direct unanalyzed
indirect
unanalyzed
association= effect + effect through +effect through + effect through
education
premarital sex education AND
premarital sex

Decomposing the relationship between intensity of religious

beliefs and support for abortion for single women
e2

e1

Reliten
-.074
-.291

Premarsx

-.019

.335

Absingle

.171
.230

Educ

Direct effect = -.074

Indirect effect through Premarsx = -.291*.335= -.097485
Unanalyzed effect due to Educ = -.019*.230= -.00437
Unanalyzed effect due to Educ and Premarsx= -.019*.171*.335= -.001088415
Total association = -.074 + -.097485 + -.00437 + -.001088415 = -.176943415

Compare to rAbsingle,Reliten = -.177

Effects of Education (EDUC) on Support for

Abortion for Single Women (ABSINGLE)

Take the normal equation which has the correlation of RELITEN and ABSINGLE on the right-hand side (Normal
Equation #2) for EQ2).
reduc,absingle

=par* reduc, reliten +pae + pap*reduc, premarsx

Notice that
reduc,premarsx=ppr*rreliten,educ

+ppe

(Normal Equation #2 for EQ1)

So
reduc,absingle

=par* reduc, reliten +pae + pap* (ppr*rreliten,educ

+ppe)=

reduc,absingle

=par* reduc, reliten +pae + pap* ppr*rreliten,educ

+ pap* ppe

Total
association=

unanalyzed
direct unanalyzed
indirect
effect through + effect + effect through + effect through
religion
religion and
premarital sex
premarital sex

Decomposing the relationship between education

and support for abortion for single women
e2

e1

Reliten
-.074
-.291

Premarsx

-.019

.335

Absingle

.171
.230

Educ

Direct effect = .230

Indirect effect through Premarsx = .171*.335= .057285
Unanalyzed effect due to Reliten = -.019*-.074 = .001406
Unanalyzed effect due to Reliten and Premarsx= -.019*-.291*.335=.001852215
Total association = .230+ .057285 + .001406 +.001852215= 0.290543215

Compare to rAbsingle,Educ= .291

Effects of support for pre-marital sex on Support for

Abortion for Single Women

Take the normal equation which has the correlation of PREMARSX and ABSINGLE on the right-hand side
(Normal Equation #3 for EQ2).
rpremarsx,absingle=par* rpremarsx,reliten +pae*rpremarsx,educ+ pap
Notice that
rreliten,premarsx =ppr +ppe*rreliten,educ

(Normal Equation #1) for EQ1).

and
reduc,premarsx=ppr*rreliten,educ

So
rpremarsx,absingle=par*( ppr +ppe*rreliten,educ )+pae*( ppr*rreliten,educ +ppe )+ pap=

rpremarsx,absingle =par* ppr + par* ppe*rreliten,educ +pae* ppr *rreliten,educ + pae *ppe + pap

(keep in mind that rreliten,premarsx=rpremarsx, reliten)

+ppe

(Normal Equation #2) for EQ1)

Total
association
unanalyzed unanalyzed
association
direct
association= due to
+ effect through + effect through + due to
+ effect
common cause education and
religion and
common cause
religion
religion
education
education

Decomposing the relationship between attitude

towards pre-marital sex and support for abortion
for single women
e2

e1

Reliten
-.074
-.291

Premarsx

-.019

.335

Absingle

.171
.230

Educ

Direct effect = .335

Spurious effect due to common cause Reliten = .-.291*-.074= .021534
Spurious effect due to common cause Educ = .171*.230= .03933.
Unanalyzed effect due to correlation of common cause Reliten with Educ= -.291* -.019*.230= .
00127167
Unanalyzed effect due to correlation of common cause Educ with Reliten= .171*-.019*-.074= .
00074727
Total association = .335 + .021534 + .03933 + .00127167+ .00074727 =.039788294

Compare to rAbsingle,Premarsx= .398

Rules of calculating the various effects

of (X) on (Y)

a. Direct effect
path coefficient

b. Indirect effects
Start from the variable (Y) later in the causal chain to your right. Trace
backwards (right to left) against arrows passing intervening variables until you
get to variable (X)
Each combination of intervening variables is a separate indirect effect.

c. Spurious effects (due to common causes)

Start from variable (Y). Trace backwards to a variable (Z) that has a direct or
indirect effect on both (X) and (Y). Move from (Z) to (X).
There are as many spurious effects of (X) on Y due to (Z) as many ways you can get
from Y to (X) through (Z) following the rule above.

d. Correlated (unanalyzed) effects

If (X) is one of several exogenous variables find (Z) that is both exogenous and
has a direct or indirect effect on Y. Start from variable (Y). Trace back to (Z).
Make the last step through the double headed arrow to (X)
If (X) is an endogenous variable, find an exogenous variable (Z) that has a direct
or indirect effect on (Y) and is correlated to another exogenous variable (W) that
has a direct or indirect effect on (X). Start from variable (Y). Trace back to (Z).
Travel through the double headed arrow to (W). Move from (W) to (X).
Comment: A Correlated (unanalyzed) effect is like an indirect effect or a spurious effect
due to common causes, except it includes one (and only one) double headed arrow.

Rules of calculating the total

association
1. Find all paths

Sewall Wright's rules

No loops
Within one path you cannot go through the same variable twice.

No going forward then backward

Only common causes matter, common consequences (effects)
don't.

Maximum of one curved arrow per path

2. Calculate compound paths (indirect, spurious,

correlated) by multiplying coefficients encountered
on the way
3. Add up all direct and compound effects

Identification of fully recursive models

Rules of thumb
(The actual rules of identification are bit more complicated but the following rules will work most of the time)

Just-Identified Models

As many coefficients as normal equations (a necessary but not

sufficient condition)

With K variables this means k*(k-1)/2 single headed and double

headed arrows
Just-identified models can be estimated in SPSS as separate
regression equations.

Underidentified Models
More coefficients than normal equations
Underindentified models cannot be estimated
A model can be locally underidentified even when you have the
same or more normal equations than coefficient to estimate.

Overidentified Models
Fewer coefficients than normal equations (a necessary but not sufficient
condition)

Degrees of freedom: = #normal equations-#coefficients