Dollar Index (180 minute) ~ “Unorthodox model” y?

-g-
81.10

-e-
Reprinted from 2/10/2010

-c-

79.25?
x?
-a- -f-

-d-

-b-

The “unorthodox” model is so far serving us well. The weekend report suggested 4-5 days of correction,
and that’s what we’ve been getting. This move lower should finish within the next 24-48 hours. An ideal
target might be 79.25 for 161.8% of -d-=-f-. When -f- wave completes, we should get one more move higher
76.94 to the 81 zone.
x

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 y?
-g-
Dollar Index (180 minute) ~ “Unorthodox model” 81.20s

-e-

-c-
-f-

x?
-a-

-d-

-b-

It’ll be interesting to see if this “unorthodox” model proves to be correct. It would mark the first time
I’ve assumed this type of pattern to predict market behavior. According to this model, we’re in the
final g-wave of a “diametric.” If the -efg-waves are “fractal” to the -abc-, then this -g- should complete
76.94 near 78.6% of -e-, or in the 81.20s. Under no circumstances should this g-wave break above 82.
x Because the -c- wave was shorter than -a-, the -g- should be shorter than -e-.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c”
1050 S&P 500 (180 min.) - A Triangle Forming off the Lows?
[b] I’m sort of warming up to the idea of this triangle model for various reasons:
1) The move from 1071.61104.7 had the look of an “initial” wave that was NOT an impulse;
2) The (b) wave looks like an “elongated flat,” a pattern one sees contained within a triangle;
3) The (c) wave here looks “corrective” and the line break has seemed “uneventful,” typically a triangle signal.

[a]
If this is the model, the market should continue to “meander” and
(x) chop sideways. There should also be a Fibonacci relationship
between the (c) and (a) wave, which means a “reversal” at one of
(a) the targets cited.
[c]
1104.7
(w) [b]
(x) [b] So far, this line break seems “non-eventful.” If this
[b] was a ‘real’ break of trendline, shouldn’t we have
seen an acceleration?
(c)?
[a]
[a]
-b- or -x-
[c] (e)?
(y) [a]

1071.6
[c]
(z)
-a- or -w- (d)?
Targets for the (c) wave:
1077 = 100.0% of (a)
1090 = 138.2% of (a)
1098 = 161.8% of (a)
1044.5
[c]
(b) CRASH

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c”
1050
S&P 500 (180 min.) - A “Double”?
[b]
This is a variation on previous similar models. This calls for one more leg down, but not necessarily a “crash.”
It would just be another leg down that would take the S&P to the 1130’s, before another bear market rally. The
(b) wave in the model could certainly test 1104.7 before resuming the next wave down. The 61.8% retrace of
the last wave down, around 1078, as been presenting plenty of resistance, but this market is not really showing
[a] any immediate sings of reversing, yet.

(x)

[c] -x-
(w) 1104.7
[b]
(x) [b]
[b]

(b)
[a]
[a]

[c]
(y) [a]

1071.6
[c]
(z)
-w-

1044.5
(a)
NON-
CRASH

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (A) Smith and Wesson [SWHC] ~ Daily
“c”
$7.52

“b”

“d”

“a”

“c” “e”
Interesting how its finding support at an EXACT 61.8% (B)
“a”
$3.29
b
d
I’ll periodically post on Smith and Wesson because, quite frankly, I love the look of this entire
pattern. It’s entirely possible that this (B)-wave takes longer to complete, but the whole pattern from
the $7.52 highs looks VERY corrective in nature--meaning, we should get another big leg up at
e some point. So, either SWHC will prove the point that Wave Analysis does not work well on stocks,
and this equity will break my heart, or SWHC will launch very powerfully higher in the not distant
“b” future.
c
a

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 “d” Smith and Wesson [SWHC] ~ 60 min.

The worrisome factor for SWHC bulls is the clear triangular nature of this pattern on the recent lows. A
break of new lows should send this market to the $3.40s, which should be the final low for the Smith and
Wesson. As we have seen, sometimes triangles END major patterns, so a thrust higher would not
surprise. The Bottom Line: A decision moment is coming for the Smith and Wesson and this stock should
get “volatile” very soon. I’ve liked the stock near $4.00 and would probably buy more at $3.50, if we got
another move lower. Remember to “keep your powder dry.”

$3.29

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Smith and Wesson [SWHC] ~ Daily

(A)
$7.52
Reprinted from 1/27/2010

(B)
Double Bottom at $3.83?
$3.29

My first look at SWHC was back on 9/25/09 at $5.21. At that time I thought it was a triangle that had
a lot of upside. The stop loss was at $5.00 while the low $3.00’s was identified as better long term
support. At this point, it’s very difficult to peg the exact kind of correction this might be, but one thing
is certain: the move down from $7.52 was only corrective in nature. This suggests that once
played out, SWHC has a pretty strong ( C ) wave coming. Perhaps it’s time to think about bullish
strategies on this stock?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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