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Perencanaan Agregat

Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi


Pendahuluan(1)

• Tujuan Aggregate planning (AP) adalah membangkitkan (generate) top


level production plans

• Basis AP adalah hasil ramalan dan target produksi. Target produksi


ditentukan oleh top level business plan yang memperhatikan kapasitas
& kapabilitas perusahaan

• Analisis dilakukan dalam kelompok produk (product family) dengan unit


agregat

• Melibatkan pemilihan strategi manufaktur

• Peran AP adalah sebagai interface antara perusahaan/sistem


manufaktur dan pasar produknya.
Pendahuluan(2)

Company top level plans

Wholesaler

Aggregate
Planning

Retailer
Factory

End consumer
Aggregate Planning Strategies(1)

1) Capacity options
2) Demand options
3) Mixed strategies

Capacity options:
• Mengubah-ubah tingkat inventory (level production)
• Mengubah-ubah ukuran tenaga kerja: hiring/lay off (chase
strategy)
• Mengubah-ubah production rate: over time/under time
• Menggunakan part time workers
Aggregate Planning Strategies(2)

Demand options
• Mempengaruhi demand: advertensi, promosi, personal selling,
discount, diskriminasi harga
• Backordering

Pure strategy
• Bila yang diubah-ubah hanya satu variabel

Mixed strategy
• Melibatkan pengubahan beberapa variabel, misalnya bila pure
strategy tidak feasible
Controllable (decision) variable

• Inventory

• Production rate

• Manpower

• Kapasitas: over time/recruitment/layoff (tenaga kerja/work force)

• Subcontract
Methods

• Trial and Error (Charting/graphical methods)


– Pure strategy
– Mixed strategy

• Mathematical (optimal) approach:


– Linear Programming Model
– Transportation Model

• Management Coefficient Approach atau empirical approach

• Simulation
Relevant cost

• Hiring/layoff cost

• Overtime/under time cost

• Inventory carrying cost

• Subcontracting incremental cost

• Part time labor cost

• Backorder cost

• Stock out cost


CONTOH : Perencanaan Aggregat
dengan Trial and Error

Diketahui demand selama 8 kuartal ke depan (hasil ramalan  lihat


slide berikutnya)
Ongkos produksi :
Regular time (Cr): 10 (US$/unit)
Over time (Co): 30 (US$/unit)
Ongkos kenaikan tingkat produksi (Ch) : 100 US$/unit (hiring cost)
Ongkos penurunan tingkat produksi (Cl): 150 US$/unit  (lay-off cost)
Ongkos inventory (Ci): 50 US$/kuartal
Incremental cost for subcontracting (Cs): 80 US$/unit
Forecasted Demand per kuartal

Kuart Demand DEMAND PER KUARTAL


al (unit) (UNIT)
800

1 220
2 170 600

3 400
400
4 600
5 380 200

6 200
0
7 130 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

8 300
Total 2400
Alternatif penyusunan
Perencanaan Aggregat

1. Level strategy
• Production rate = average demand

2. Chase strategy
• Production rate = demand

3. Subcontract strategy
• Production rate dipilih konstant
• Kekurangannya dipenuhi dengan subkontrak

4. Mixed strategy
Alternatif 1 : Level Strategy

Production level = average demand

Kuartal Demand Initial Production rate (unit) End Inventory Production


(unit) Inventoy (unit) Regular Overtime Inventoy (unit) Cost (US$) Cost (US$)
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e)=(b+c+d)-a (f)=(b+d)/2*Ci (g)=(b*Cr+c*Co)
1 220 270 200 100 350 15.500 5.000
2 170 350 200 100 480 20.750 5.000
3 400 480 200 100 380 21.500 5.000
4 600 380 200 100 80 11.500 5.000
5 380 80 200 100 0 2.000 5.000
6 200 0 200 100 100 2.500 5.000
7 130 100 200 100 270 9.250 5.000
8 300 270 200 100 270 13.500 5.000
96.500 40.000
Total cost 136.500
*) Initial inventory: 270
Alternatif 2: Chase Strategy
(Production= demand)
Total Changing Hiring Lay-off Production Subcontract
Kuartal Demand Production (unit) Sub Production Production cost cost cost cost
(unit) Regular Overtime Kontrak (unit) (unit) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$)
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e)=(b+c) (f)  (e  e ) (g)=max(0,f)*Ch (h)=|min(0,f)|*Cl (i)=(b*Cr+c*Co)
t t -1 (j)=(d)*Cs
1 220 200 200 0 - - 2.000 -
2 170 170 170 -30 - 4.500 1.700 -
3 400 200 100 100 300 130 13.000 - 5.000 8.000
4 600 200 100 300 300 0 - - 5.000 24.000
5 380 200 100 80 300 0 - - 5.000 6.400
6 200 200 200 -100 - 15.000 2.000 -
7 130 130 130 -70 - 10.500 1.300 -
8 300 200 100 300 170 17.000 - 5.000 -
30.000 30.000 27.000 38.400
Total cost 125.400
Alternatif 3:
Subcontract Strategy
Production level = constant regular (200) dan kekurangan kapasitas di subcontract

Kuartal Demand Production (unit) Subcontract Production Subcontract


  (unit) Regular (unit) cost (US$) cost (US$)
  (a) (b) (c) (d)=(b*Cr) (e)=(d)*Cs
1 220 200 20 2.000 1.600
2 170 200 2.000 -
3 400 200 200 2.000 16.000
4 600 200 400 2.000 32.000
5 380 200 180 2.000 14.400
6 200 200 0 2.000 -
7 130 200 2.000 -
8 300 200 100 2.000 8.000
16.000 72.000
Sub total 88.000
Alternatif 4:
Mixed Strategy
Sub Total Changing End Subcon- Inventory
Kuartal Demand Production (unit) Kontrak Production Production inventory Hiring cost Lay-off Production tract cost cost
(unit) Regular Overtime (unit) (unit) (unit) (unit) (US$) cost (US$) cost (US$) (US$) (US$)
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e)=(b+c) (f) (g) (h)=max(0,f) (i)=|min(0,f)| (j)=(b*Cr+ (k)=(d)*Cs (l)
*Ch *Cl +c*Co)
0 270
1 220 0 0 50 - - - - 8.000
2 170 200 200 200 80 20.000 - 2.000 - 6.500
3 400 200 100 20 300 100 0 10.000 - 5.000 1.600 6.000
4 600 200 100 300 300 0 0 - - 5.000 24.000 -
5 380 200 100 80 300 0 0 - - 5.000 6.400 -
6 200 200 200 -100 0 - 15.000 2.000 - -
7 130 200 200 0 70 - - 2.000 - -
8 300 200 30 200 0 0 - - 2.000 2.400 -
30.000 15.000 23.000 34.400 20.500
Total cost 122.900
Linear Programming

k k k k k
Min Z  r  Pt  h At  f  Rt  v  Ot  c  I t
t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1

Subject to P, O = jml unit yang


diproduksi pada RT dan OT
Pt  mt ; t  1, 2, ..., k
A, R = jml unit kenaikan dan
Ot  nt ; t  1, 2, ..., k penurunan
I t  I t 1  Pt  Ot  Dt ; t  1, 2, ..., k r, v = ongkos produksi per unit
RT dan OT
At  Pt - Pt 1 ; t  1, 2, ..., k
c = ongkos simpan per unit
Rt  Pt 1 - Pt ; t  1, 2, ..., k
D = ramalan demand
At , Rt , I t , Pt , Ot  0
I = jml unit inventory
m, n = kapasitas RT dan OT
Transportation Model(1)

Supply capacity
Perioda Demand
RT OT Subcontract
1 700 250 500 500
2 800 250 500 800
3 900 250 500 1700
4 500 250 500 900

Inventory awal: 100 unit


Inventory akhir yang diinginkan: 150 unit
Ongkos RT: $100/unit
Ongkos OT: $125/unit
Ongkos SC: $150/unit
Ongkos simpan: $20/unit/perioda
Transportation Model (2)

Perioda penjualan Unused Available


Sumber
Perioda 1 2 3 4 Capacity Capacity
Produksi Inventory awal 100
RT 700
1 OT 250
SC 500
RT 800
2 OT 250
SC 500
RT 900
3 OT 250
SC 500
RT 500
4 OT 250
SC 500
Demand 500 800 1700 1050 6000
Transportation Model (3)

Perioda penjualan Unused Available


Perioda
Sumber 1 2 3 4 Capacity Capacity
Produksi Inventory 0 0 50 50 0 100
RT 500       200 700
1 OT -     - 250
SC -       500 500
RT - 800     - 800
2 OT - - 250
SC -     500 500
RT - - 900   - 900
3 OT - - 250   - 250
SC - - 500   500 500
RT - - - 500 - 500
4 OT - - - 250 - 250
SC - - - 250 250 500
Demand 500 800 1.700 1.050 1.950 6.000
Unallocated - 0 0 0
Transportation Model (4)

Periode Capacity (unit)


Sumber 1 2 3 4 Unused Available
0 20 40 60
Inventory
Periode 50 50 - 100
100 120 160 220
Regular
450 250 700
125 145 165 185
1 Over time
250 250
150 170 190 210
SubCont
500 500
190 100 120 140
Regular
750 50 - 800
215 125 145 165
2 Over time
250 - 250
240 150 170 190
SubCont
500 500
280 190 100 120
Regular
900 - 900
305 215 125 145
3 Over time
250 - 250
330 240 150 170
SubCont
250 250 500
370 280 190 100
Regular
500 - 500
395 305 215 125
4 Over time
250 - 250
420 330 240 150
SubCont
300 200 500
STOCKOUT 250 250 250 250
- - - -
DEMAND 500 800 1.700 900
End-horizon
150
Inventory
Transportation Model (5)

Aggregat Planning
Periode 0 1 2 3 4
A. Production Planning
Demand (unit) 500 800 1.700 900
Produksi (unit)
a. Regular 450 800 900 500
b. Overtime - 250 250 250
Subkontrak (unit) - - 250 300
Inventory (unit) 100 50 250 - 150
Backorder (unit) - - -
Stockout (unit) - - - -

B. Financial Planning
Penjualan (US$) 150.000 240.000 510.000 270.000
Biaya (US$)
1. Produksi
a. Regular 45.000 80.000 90.000 50.000
b. Overtime - - 31.250 37.500
2. Subkontrak - - 37.500 45.000
3. Inventory 1.000 5.000 - 3.000
4. Backorder - - - -
5. Stockout - - - -
Total Biaya (US$ 46.000 85.000 158.750 135.500
Proyeksi laba/rugi 104.000 155.000 351.250 134.500
Management Coefficient Model(1)

Bowman Model (sumber Bedworth halaman 133-137)

• Work-force
Wt = jumlah tenaga kerja pada periode t
Ft = jumlah demand hasil ramalan pada periode t
I* = tingkat inventory yang diinginkan
It-1= tingkat inventory pada periode t-1
f = fungsi

Wt = f(Ft, I*, It-1 , Wt-1)

Contoh : Wt   0  1Wt 1   2 ( I *  I t 1 )   3 Ft

  koefisien manajemen (Ditentukan dari data empirik)


Management Coefficient Model(2)

• Production level
Pt = tingkat produksi pada periode t
Pt = g(Wt, I*, It-1, Ft, Ft+1, Ft+2,)
2
Pt   0  1Wt   2 ( I *  I t 1 )    {[1 /(i  1)]Ft 1}
i 0
Contoh :   koefisien manajemen
Contoh data empirik
(Bedworth, page 128)
2
 1 
t Ft It-1 Wt Pt Pr,t Po,t I*-It-1   1  i F
i 0
t i 

1 200 30 27 209 200 9 20 385
2 210 48 25 230 200 30 2 430
3 240 60 28 250 224 26 -10 473
4 300 27 28 270 224 46 23 491
5 250 50 28 270 224 46 0 403
6 200 49 25 200 200 0 1 330
7 160 65 22 175 175 0 -15 268
8 150 72 20 160 160 0 -22 240
9 100 95 18 120 120 0 -45 213
10 120 97 18 120 120 0 -47 266
11 160 55 18 120 120 0 -5 333
12 200 31 20 180 160 20 19 386
13 220 47 22 200 176 24 3 421
14 230 68 28 250 224 26 -18 476
15 260 77 30 270 240 30 -27 525
16 350 27 33 300 266 34 23 561
17 270 55 33 300 266 34 -5 451
18 230 65 30 240 240 0 -15 423
19 200 102 30 240 240 0 -52 390
20 280 100 22 176 176 0 -50 411
21 150 129 22 176 176 0 -79 301
22 170 134 22 176 176 0 -84 353
23 200 108 22 176 176 0 -58 411
24 250 70 22 176 176 0 -20 470
25 260
26 270
Management Coefficient Model(3)

Contoh coefisient management (detail ada di buku Bedworth halaman


134-135)

Wt  1,49  0,503Wt 1  0,02( I *  I t 1 )  0,49 Ft


  0,9322
2
Pt  63,2  9,62Wt  1,32( I *  I t 1 )  0,095 {[1 /(i  1)]Ft 1}
  0,9757 i 0
Latihan
Diberikan data peramalan dan produksi sebagai berikut : (Fogarty, page 74)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
Demand 40 40 40 32 32 32 48 48 48 60 60 60

Required safetystock (unit) = 5 Tugas :


Holding cost (US$/unit/month) = 300
a. Buat perencanaan agregat (+
biayanya) jika digunakan chase
Hiring cost (US$/worker) = 50 strategy.
Layoff cost (US$/worker) = 100 b. Buat perencanaan agregat (+
Labor cost (US$/worker/month)= 480 biayanya) jika digunakan level
Overtimecost ((US$/hour/worker) = 18 production strategy.
Production rate (units/month/worker)=8 c. Komponen biaya apa perlu
mendapat perhatian utama? Apa
Workday per month = 21
saran Anda untuk
Current work force (workers)=5 mengatasinya?