p ro fe s s io n a l c o n s u m e r e n te rta in m e n t
m b p s
1 0 ,0 0 0
H D TV
1 ,0 0 0
PAL
100
10
T1
1
IS D N
0 .1
www.re-think.com/knowledge1.htm
Fixed Broadband
Residential/SOHO/SME duopoly
Cable/telecom networks
Digital cable: shared bandwidth?
Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL):
VDSL: 10Mb/s+
SDSL: 1.7Mb/s+
ADSL: 512Kbit/s+
Why’s it taking so long?
Stranded costs
Copper/ISDN investments written off?
Uncertain revenue streams
Is anyone making money off convergence?
Threat to voice
8Kb/s application; UMTS licence costs
Monopoly control?
LLU process; leased line costs
US Market Maturing Fast
Online Subscriber Forecast
80 75
72
Millions of US Households
70 65
60 57
50
50
40
30 26
20.2
20 14.7
9.6
10 5.1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Over a third of all online homes will subscribe to high speed access by 2004
54%
50%
46%
45%
40%
36%
34%
30%
20%
10% 11%
0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
DSL Cable Modem
Satellite-delivered services will also be available to 90% of US homes
Global DTV Homes (m)
400
350
300
250
200 Digital
Interactive
150
100
50
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Ovum 2001
Broadband Take-Up to 2010
IPR Holder Dilemma Example Narrowband Answer Loss of Market
Value
International Internet Who owns the Olympics in Clear all international Failure to release
rights quagmire Germany or Switzerland? IP rights, or none at all full value from
– loss of control over rights; cannot be
rights territories windowed and
leveraged; ‘one
sale equals all’
Plethora of rights third UK: Writers’ Guild; BPI; Use only pre-cleared Free content sites
parties Mechanical Rights or promotional clips pirating IPRs;
Society; BECTU; Equity; produced for proves value of
PACT; Musicians’ Union marketing purposes experience but not
value from archive
No IP rights pre-1995 Assignment of rights Use post-1995 rights: All classic archive
completely omits on- no classic content; lost to IP; over-
demand network delivery rights inflation for valuation of non-
modern properties compelling newly
created content
QoS concerns Film majors refuse to ‘Close to the edge’ Only low video ·
prevents release of release sub-VHS buffered delivery using Akamai grade content
VHS and enhanced content; talent refuses to and others; MPEG4 released:
formats allow degraded delivery of permits greater animation;
product compression pornography; audio
Piracy concerns with DVD code cracked; MP3 Watermarking (SDMI), IPRs holders refuse ·
public Internet solution for video now DRM, standardization to release content,
possible with DVD initiatives using editorial integrity
BCDForum etc. offline – e.g. via
DVD
Lack of customer Advertiser dollars diverted Value in rights hidden; Stakeholders refuse ·
information prevents from authenticated brand- existing ‘rich media’ to ‘cannibalize’
true eCRM value in building experience in advertising offers existing revenue
exposure of rights broadcast to ‘anarchic’, fractional value of true sources for low-
holder property identity-theft prone rich media gradealternative
delivery over public IP despite user
demand