CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY
In the study of probability, we shall consider
activities for which the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.
EXPERIMENT
 Study of probability which shall be
consider activities for which the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.
SAMPLE SPACE
 Set of all possible outcomes
SAMPLE POINT
 Individual element or outcome
in a sample space.
Consider the activity of rolling a die.
This
activity has
six possible outcomes, that is
1,2,3,4,5, and 6. thus,
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Any of the number 1 to 6 is a sample point of S. we can say that there are six sample points. If we let A
be
the event of getting
an
odd
number and
B
an
event of getting a perfect square, then
A= (1,3,5)
and
B= (1,4)
Note that the elements
of
A
are
elements
of
the
sample space S. The number of sample points in a sample space S, an events A and B are usually
written as n(S), n(A), and n(B) respectively. Thus,
n(S) = 6,
n(A) = 3,
n(B) = 2
If a pair of dice is rolled, then determine the number of sample points of the following:
a.
Let n1 be the number of possible outcomes for the first die Let n2 be the number of possible outcomes for the second die
n(S) = n1 * n2 = 6 * 6 = 36
b.
Let A be
the
event of
getting a
sum of
5.
The
number of sample points in A can be listed. Thus,
A = (1,4), (4,1), (2,3),(3,2)
n(A) = 4
c. Let B be the event of getting a sum of at most 4. Then, B = (1,1), (1,2), (1,3),(2,1), (2,2), (3,1)
n(B) = 6
A box contains 6 red and 4 green balls. If three balls are drawn from the box, then determine the number of sample points of the following:
Let S be the event of drawing 3 balls from the box Let A be the event of getting all red balls Let B be the event of getting 1 red and 2 green balls
10!
= 120
(10 – 3)! 3!
b. n(A) = 6C3 * 4C0 =

6!

*

4!

= 20

(6 – 3)!3!

(4 – 0 )!0!



6!

*

4!

= 36

(6 – 1)!1!

(4 – 2)!2!


PROBABILITY
Is the chance that an event will happen. The probability of an event A denoted by P(A) refers to a number between 0 and 1 including the values 0 and 1. This can be expressed as a fraction, as a decimal or as a percent. When we assign a probability of 0 to event A, it means that it is impossible for event A to occur. When event A is assigned a probability of 1, then we say that event A will really occur.
The
probability
of
occurrence plus the
probability of non – occurrence of

an event

is

always equal to

1.

Therefore,

in

a
given

observations or experiment, an event must occur

or

not.

If

we

let

A'

be

the
event that A will
not

occur, then we shall say that
A student in a statistics class was able to compute the probability of passing the subject to be equal to 0.46. Based on this information, what is the probability that he is not going to pass the subject?
Let A be the event of passing the subject Let A' be the event of not passing the subject Using EQN 3 we have
P(A') = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.46 P(A') = 0.54
THREE APPROACHES OF PROBABILTY
1. Subjective approach
determined based on an individual's experience or perception. This approach does not require
extensive data to support one's judgement but simply expresses the strength of one's belief with regard to uncertainties involved.
THREE APPROACHES OF PROBABILTY
2.
Probability
Frequency
of
the Relative


the
second approach of interpreting the

probability

of

an
event

is

through

the

determination

of
the
relative

frequency

of

occurrence.
Records show that 100 out of 1500 students who entered in a certain college leave the school due to financial problem. What can we say about the probability that a freshmen entering this college will leave the school due to financial reason?
Let A be the event that a freshmen will leave the college due to financial reason. Then based on the past records, the relative frequency shall be
Records show that in a certain university, 350 out of 1,750 graduates who took the CPA examination were able to pass. What can we say about the possible performance of the future graduates of this university who will take the CPA examination?
Let A be the event that a graduates of this university who will take the examination will pass. Then, by using the relative frequency occurrence, we have
THREE APPROACHES OF PROBABILTY
3. Classical Probability

In
this
approach,
an
experiment shall be
performed. The possible outcome can be predicted even before the performance of the experiment. One of the assumptions in the classical probability is that the probability of each sample point must be equal.
The computing formula for the classical
probability of an event A is given by
where:
n(A) represents the number of sample points in event A n(S) represents the number of sample points in sample space S
If a coin is tossed, what is the probability of getting a head?
S = {head, tail} Hence, we may say that n(S) = 2 If we let A be the event of getting head,
then
A = {head} and n(A) = 1 Hence, by applying the classical probability, we have P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/2
If two coins are tossed, what is the probability of getting both heads?
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} Hence, we may say that n(S) = 4 If we let A be the event of getting two heads, then
A = {HH} and n(A) = 1 Hence, by applying the classical probability, we have P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/4
If a die is rolled, what is the probability of getting

a. an odd number?

b. an even number?

c. a perfect square?
Let S be the sample space. Then, S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) and n(S) = 6 Let A be the event of getting an odd number. Let B be the event of getting an even number. Let C be the event of getting a perfect square.
Then, A = (1, 3, 5) and n(A) = 3 B = (2, 4, 6) and n(B) = 3 C = (1, 4) and n(C) = 2
Therefore;

a. P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 3/6 = ½

b. P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 3/6 = ½

c. P(C) = n(C)/n(S) = 2/6 = 1/3
A box contain has 3 red, 4 green, and 6 yellow balls. If a ball is drawn from a box, what is the probability that a. it is a green? b. it is not red?
S = 13
A is a green ball
B is red ball
If a pair of dice is rolled, what is the probability of getting
And;

a. P(A) = 5/36

b. P(B) = 36/36 = 1

c. P(C) = 0/36 = 0
A box contains 7 red, and 6 green balls. If two balls are drawn from the box, what is the probability of getting a. both green? b. 1 red and 1 green?
S = 13!/(13 – 2)!2! = 78
therefore: P(A) = 15/78 = 5/26
ADDITION RULE
If we let A and B be the events then these two events can be combined to form another event. The event that at least one of the events A or B will happen is denoted by A U B. The event that both events A and B will occur is denoted by A П B. The probability of A U B denoted by P(AUB) is given by.
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AПB)
EQN 5
Using classical probability, EQN 5 shall become
P(AUB) = EQN 6
n(A)
+
n(B)

n(AΠB)
ADDITION RULE
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they can not occur both at the same time. This implies that the occurrence of event A excludes the occurrence of event B and vice versa. Hence, n(AПB) = O. This follows that P(AПB) = O then EQN 5 will be reduced to
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
EQN 7
Consider the activity of rolling a die and let A, B, and C be the events of getting an odd number, an even number, and a perfect square respectively. Determine the probability of getting
a.) an odd or an even number. b.) an even number and a perfect square
The sample space is S = {1,2,3, n(S) = 6
.........
6}, thus
The elements
of
the three events are given
below. A= {1,3,5}, B= {2,4,6} C= {1,4}
n(A) = 3 n(B) = 3 n(C) = 2
a.) Notice that events A and B do not have a common sample point. Hence, these events cannot occur both at the same time. So, we can say that the two events are mutually exclusive events. Using EQN 7, we have
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) = n(A)/n(S) + n(B)/n(S) = 3/6 + 3/6 = 6/6
= 1
b.) events B and C have a common sample point. This implies that the two events can occur both at the same time. Hence, we may say that two events are non – mutually exclusive events. Using EQN 6, we have
P(BUC) = P(B) + P(C) – P(BПC) = 3/6 + 3/6 – 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3
Example 14
A card
is
drawn from an
ordinary deck of 52
playing cards. Find the probability of getting

a. an ace or a king

b. a king or a face card

c. a black or a queen
S = 52
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) = n(A)/n(S) + n(B)/n(S) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 = 2/13
S = 52
P(BUC) = P(B) + P(C) – P(BПC) = n(B)/n(S) + n(C)/n(S) – n(BПC)/n(S) = 4/52 + 12/52 – 4/52 = 12/52 = 3/13
S = 52
P(DUE) = P(D) + P(E) – P(DПE) = n(D)/n(S) + n(E)/n(S) – n(DПE)/n(S) = 26/52 + 4/52 – 2/52 = 28/52 = 7/13
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conditional probability is the probability that a second event will occur if the first event already happened. Symbolically, conditional probability is written as P(A l B) and is read as the probability of event A given that event B has occurred. The computing formula for the conditional probability of A given B is given by
P(A l B) = P(AПB)/P(B), provided P(B) is not equal to 0
EQN 8
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
In conditional probability, the occurrence of event B specifies the new sample space for which we want to calculate the probability of that part of A that is contained in B.
By using classical probability,
P(AПB) =
n(AПB)/n(S)
P(B) =
n(B)/n(S)
Thus, EQN 8 shall become P(A l B) = n(AПB)/n(S) n(B)/n(S) P(A l B) = n(AПB)/n(B)
EQN 9
and
Let P(A) = 0.4,
P(B) = 0.5,
P(AПB) = 0.3
Find the value of the following:
a.) P(A l B) b.) P(B l A)
a.) P(A l B) = b.) P(A l B) =
P(AПB)/P(B) = 0.3/0.5 = 0.6
P(AПB)/P(A) =
0.3/0.4 = 0.75
Example 16
A die is rolled. If the result is an even number, what is the probability that is a perfect square?
Let A be the event of getting a perfect square. Let B be the event of getting an even number. Let AПB be the event of getting a perfect square and an even number
Thus, P(A l B) = n(AПB)/n(B) = 1/3
Solution to Example 17
See diagram below. Note that we are defining
a new sample space from S to B. Of the
probability P(B) equals 0.3, the corresponds to P(A∏B). Hence,
value
0.2
(A)
0.1
(A∏B)
(B)
P(A l B) = P(AПB)/P(B) = 0.2/0.3 = 0.7
0.2
A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards. Given that the card drawn is a face card, then what is the probability of getting

a. a king?

b. a spade?

c. a red card?
Let A be the event of getting a face card Let B be the event of getting a king Let C be the event of getting a spade Let D be the event of getting a red card
b. P(C l A) = n(CПA)/n(A) = 3/12 = ¼
c. P(D l A) = n(DПA)/n(A) = 6/12 = 1/2
A vendor has 35 balloons on strings. Twenty balloons are yellow, 8 are red, and 7 are green. A balloon was selected at random and sold. Given that the balloon selected and sold is yellow, what is the probability that the next balloon selected and sold at random is also yellow?
A box contains 5 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn in succession with replacement from the box. What is the probability of getting a. red on the first draw? b. red on the second given that it is red on the first?
A box contains
6 black and 5 yellow marbles.
Two
marbles
are
drawn
from
the
box
in
succession without replacement. What is the
probability of getting

a. black on the first draw?

b. black on the second draw given that it is black on the first draw?

c. black on the second draw given that it is yellow on the first draw?
MULTIPLICATION RULE
We
have
shown
that
the
formula
for
the
conditional probability is given by
P(A l B)=P(AПB)/P(B) ,where P(B) is not equal to
0
If the formula above is cross multiplied and solved for P(AПB), then we have
P(AПB) = P(A l B) P(B)
EQN 10
MULTIPLICATION RULE
If
events A and
then we say that
B are independent events,
P(A l B) = P(A)
or
P(B l A) = P(B)
EQN 11
Then EQN 10 shall become
P(AПB) = P(A) P(B)
EQN 12
A box contains
3
red
balls
are
drawn
and 8 black balls.
in
succession
If two without
replacement, what is the probability that a.) both are red? b.) the first ball is red and the second ball is black?
Let R1 be the event of getting red on the first draw Let R2 be the event of getting red on the second draw Let B2 be the event of getting black on the second draw
a.) The probability of getting both red means the probability of getting a red on the first draw and red also on the second draw. Thus, P(R1ПR2 ) = P(R1) P(R2 l R1) = P(R1ПR2 ) = 3/11*2/10 = 6/110 = 3/55
b) The probability of getting red on the first draw and black on the second draw is
P(R1ПR2) = P(R1) P(B2lR1) P(R1ПR2 ) = 3/11*8/10 = 24/110 = 12/55
If
a
die
is
thrown twice, what is the probability
getting both 6?
of
Let A1 be the event of getting a 6 on the first throw Let A2 be the event of getting a 6 on the second throw
P(A1ПA2) = P(A1) P(A2) = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Box A contains 5 blue and 4 white balls. Box B has 2 blue and 5 white balls. One ball is drawn at random from box A and transferred to box B without looking at the color of the ball that is drawn. What is the probability of drawing a blue ball from box B?
Let B1 be the event of drawing a blue ball from box A Let B2 be the event of drawing a blue ball from box B Let W1 be the event of drawing a white ball from box A Let (B1ПB2 ) be the event of getting a blue ball from box A and a blue ball from box B Let (W1ПB2 ) be the event of getting a white ball from box A and a blue ball from box B
P(B2) = P(B1ПB2 ) U P(W1ПB2 ) = P(B1ПB2 ) + P(W1ПB2 )
P(B2) = P(B1) P(B2 Ι B1) + P(W1) P(B2 Ι W1) = 5/9 * 3/8 + 4/9 * 2/8 = 15/72 + 8/72 = 23/72