Anda di halaman 1dari 63

Chapter

6

PROBABILITY

CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

In the study of probability, we shall consider

activities for which the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.

EXPERIMENT

- Study of probability which shall be

consider activities for which the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.

SAMPLE SPACE

- Set of all possible outcomes

SAMPLE POINT

- Individual element or outcome

in a sample space.

Example 1

Consider the activity of rolling a die.

This

activity has

six possible outcomes, that is

1,2,3,4,5, and 6. thus,

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Any of the number 1 to 6 is a sample point of S. we can say that there are six sample points. If we let A

be

the event of getting

an

odd

number and

B

an

event of getting a perfect square, then

A= (1,3,5)

and

B= (1,4)

Note that the elements

of

A

are

elements

of

the

sample space S. The number of sample points in a sample space S, an events A and B are usually

written as n(S), n(A), and n(B) respectively. Thus,

n(S) = 6,

n(A) = 3,

n(B) = 2

Example 2

If a pair of dice is rolled, then determine the number of sample points of the following:

  • a. Sample space

  • b. Event of getting a sum of 5

  • c. Event of getting a sum of at most 4

Solution to Example 2

a.

Let n1 be the number of possible outcomes for the first die Let n2 be the number of possible outcomes for the second die

n(S) = n1 * n2 = 6 * 6 = 36

Solution to Example 2

b.

Let A be

the

event of

getting a

sum of

5.

The

number of sample points in A can be listed. Thus,

A = (1,4), (4,1), (2,3),(3,2)

n(A) = 4

Solution to Example 2

c. Let B be the event of getting a sum of at most 4. Then, B = (1,1), (1,2), (1,3),(2,1), (2,2), (3,1)

n(B) = 6

Example 3

A box contains 6 red and 4 green balls. If three balls are drawn from the box, then determine the number of sample points of the following:

  • a. The sample space

  • b. The event of getting all red balls

  • c. The event of getting 1 red and 2 green balls

Solution to Example 3

Let S be the event of drawing 3 balls from the box Let A be the event of getting all red balls Let B be the event of getting 1 red and 2 green balls

  • a. n(S) = 10C3 =

10!

= 120

(10 – 3)! 3!

b. n(A) = 6C3 * 4C0 =

6!

*

4!

= 20

(6 – 3)!3!

(4 – 0 )!0!

 
  • c. n(B) = 6C1 * 4C2 =

6!

*

4!

= 36

(6 – 1)!1!

(4 – 2)!2!

 

PROBABILITY

Is the chance that an event will happen. The probability of an event A denoted by P(A) refers to a number between 0 and 1 including the values 0 and 1. This can be expressed as a fraction, as a decimal or as a percent. When we assign a probability of 0 to event A, it means that it is impossible for event A to occur. When event A is assigned a probability of 1, then we say that event A will really occur.

The

probability

of

occurrence plus the

probability of non – occurrence of

an event

is

always equal to

1.

Therefore,

in

a

given

observations or experiment, an event must occur

or

not.

If

we

let

A'

be

the

event that A will

not

occur, then we shall say that

P(A) + P(A') = 1

EQN 1

From the above formula, we can have P(A) = 1 – P(A')

EQN 2

Or P(A') = 1 – P(A)

EQN 3

Example 4

A student in a statistics class was able to compute the probability of passing the subject to be equal to 0.46. Based on this information, what is the probability that he is not going to pass the subject?

Let A be the event of passing the subject Let A' be the event of not passing the subject Using EQN 3 we have

P(A') = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.46 P(A') = 0.54

THREE APPROACHES OF PROBABILTY

1. Subjective approach

  • - The probability of an event is

determined based on an individual's experience or perception. This approach does not require

extensive data to support one's judgement but simply expresses the strength of one's belief with regard to uncertainties involved.

THREE APPROACHES OF PROBABILTY

2.

Probability

Frequency

of

the Relative

-

the

second approach of interpreting the

probability

of

an

event

is

through

the

determination

of

the

relative

frequency

of

occurrence.

Example 5

Records show that 100 out of 1500 students who entered in a certain college leave the school due to financial problem. What can we say about the probability that a freshmen entering this college will leave the school due to financial reason?

Let A be the event that a freshmen will leave the college due to financial reason. Then based on the past records, the relative frequency shall be

Example 6

Records show that in a certain university, 350 out of 1,750 graduates who took the CPA examination were able to pass. What can we say about the possible performance of the future graduates of this university who will take the CPA examination?

Let A be the event that a graduates of this university who will take the examination will pass. Then, by using the relative frequency occurrence, we have

THREE APPROACHES OF PROBABILTY

3. Classical Probability

-

In

this

approach,

an

experiment shall be

performed. The possible outcome can be predicted even before the performance of the experiment. One of the assumptions in the classical probability is that the probability of each sample point must be equal.

The computing formula for the classical

probability of an event A is given by

P(A) =

n(A)

EQN 4

n(S)

where:

n(A) represents the number of sample points in event A n(S) represents the number of sample points in sample space S

Example 7

If a coin is tossed, what is the probability of getting a head?

S = {head, tail} Hence, we may say that n(S) = 2 If we let A be the event of getting head,

then

A = {head} and n(A) = 1 Hence, by applying the classical probability, we have P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/2

Example 8

If two coins are tossed, what is the probability of getting both heads?

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} Hence, we may say that n(S) = 4 If we let A be the event of getting two heads, then

A = {HH} and n(A) = 1 Hence, by applying the classical probability, we have P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/4

Example 9

If a die is rolled, what is the probability of getting

  • a. an odd number?

  • b. an even number?

  • c. a perfect square?

Let S be the sample space. Then, S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) and n(S) = 6 Let A be the event of getting an odd number. Let B be the event of getting an even number. Let C be the event of getting a perfect square.

Solution to Example 9

Then, A = (1, 3, 5) and n(A) = 3 B = (2, 4, 6) and n(B) = 3 C = (1, 4) and n(C) = 2

Therefore;

  • a. P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 3/6 = ½

  • b. P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 3/6 = ½

  • c. P(C) = n(C)/n(S) = 2/6 = 1/3

Example 10

A box contain has 3 red, 4 green, and 6 yellow balls. If a ball is drawn from a box, what is the probability that a. it is a green? b. it is not red?

S = 13

A is a green ball

B is red ball

  • a. P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 4/13

  • b. P(B’) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 3/13 = 10/13

Example 11

If a pair of dice is rolled, what is the probability of getting

  • a. a sum of 6?

  • b. a sum of less than 13?

  • c. a sum of 13?

  • d. a sum of at least 10?

And;

  • a. P(A) = 5/36

  • b. P(B) = 36/36 = 1

  • c. P(C) = 0/36 = 0

Example 12

A box contains 7 red, and 6 green balls. If two balls are drawn from the box, what is the probability of getting a. both green? b. 1 red and 1 green?

S = 13!/(13 – 2)!2! = 78

  • a. n(A) = 6!/(6 – 2)!2! * 7!/(7 – 0)!0! = 15

therefore: P(A) = 15/78 = 5/26

  • b. n(B) = 7!/(7 – 1)!1! * 6!/(6 – 1)!1! = 42 therefore: P(B) = 42/78 = 7/13

ADDITION RULE

If we let A and B be the events then these two events can be combined to form another event. The event that at least one of the events A or B will happen is denoted by A U B. The event that both events A and B will occur is denoted by A П B. The probability of A U B denoted by P(AUB) is given by.

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AПB)

EQN 5

Using classical probability, EQN 5 shall become

P(AUB) = EQN 6

n(A)

+

n(B)

-

n(AΠB)

ADDITION RULE

Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they can not occur both at the same time. This implies that the occurrence of event A excludes the occurrence of event B and vice versa. Hence, n(AПB) = O. This follows that P(AПB) = O then EQN 5 will be reduced to

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)

EQN 7

Example 13

Consider the activity of rolling a die and let A, B, and C be the events of getting an odd number, an even number, and a perfect square respectively. Determine the probability of getting

a.) an odd or an even number. b.) an even number and a perfect square

Solution to Example 13

The sample space is S = {1,2,3, n(S) = 6

.........

6}, thus

The elements

of

the three events are given

below. A= {1,3,5}, B= {2,4,6} C= {1,4}

n(A) = 3 n(B) = 3 n(C) = 2

Solution to Example 13

a.) Notice that events A and B do not have a common sample point. Hence, these events cannot occur both at the same time. So, we can say that the two events are mutually exclusive events. Using EQN 7, we have

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) = n(A)/n(S) + n(B)/n(S) = 3/6 + 3/6 = 6/6

= 1

Solution to Example 13

b.) events B and C have a common sample point. This implies that the two events can occur both at the same time. Hence, we may say that two events are non – mutually exclusive events. Using EQN 6, we have

P(BUC) = P(B) + P(C) – P(BПC) = 3/6 + 3/6 – 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3

Example 14

A card

is

drawn from an

ordinary deck of 52

playing cards. Find the probability of getting

  • a. an ace or a king

  • b. a king or a face card

  • c. a black or a queen

Solution to Example 14

S = 52

  • a. Let A be the event of getting an ace Let B be the event of getting a king

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) = n(A)/n(S) + n(B)/n(S) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 = 2/13

Solution to Example 14

S = 52

  • b. Let C be the event of getting a face card Let B be the event of getting a king

P(BUC) = P(B) + P(C) – P(BПC) = n(B)/n(S) + n(C)/n(S) – n(BПC)/n(S) = 4/52 + 12/52 – 4/52 = 12/52 = 3/13

Solution to Example 14

S = 52

  • c. Let D be the event of getting black card Let E be the event of getting a queen

P(DUE) = P(D) + P(E) – P(DПE) = n(D)/n(S) + n(E)/n(S) – n(DПE)/n(S) = 26/52 + 4/52 – 2/52 = 28/52 = 7/13

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is the probability that a second event will occur if the first event already happened. Symbolically, conditional probability is written as P(A l B) and is read as the probability of event A given that event B has occurred. The computing formula for the conditional probability of A given B is given by

P(A l B) = P(AПB)/P(B), provided P(B) is not equal to 0

EQN 8

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

In conditional probability, the occurrence of event B specifies the new sample space for which we want to calculate the probability of that part of A that is contained in B.

By using classical probability,

P(AПB) =

n(AПB)/n(S)

P(B) =

n(B)/n(S)

Thus, EQN 8 shall become P(A l B) = n(AПB)/n(S) n(B)/n(S) P(A l B) = n(AПB)/n(B)

EQN 9

and

Example 15

Let P(A) = 0.4,

P(B) = 0.5,

P(AПB) = 0.3

Find the value of the following:

a.) P(A l B) b.) P(B l A)

a.) P(A l B) = b.) P(A l B) =

P(AПB)/P(B) = 0.3/0.5 = 0.6

P(AПB)/P(A) =

0.3/0.4 = 0.75

Example 16

A die is rolled. If the result is an even number, what is the probability that is a perfect square?

Solution to Example 16

Let A be the event of getting a perfect square. Let B be the event of getting an even number. Let AПB be the event of getting a perfect square and an even number

Thus, P(A l B) = n(AПB)/n(B) = 1/3

Example 17

Suppose that

P(A)

=

0.7,

P(B)

=

0.3,

and

P(A∏B) = 0.2. Given

that the outcome

of

the

experiment belongs to B, what is then probability of A?

the

Solution to Example 17

See diagram below. Note that we are defining

a new sample space from S to B. Of the

probability P(B) equals 0.3, the corresponds to P(A∏B). Hence,

value

0.2

(A)

0.1

(A∏B)

(B)

P(A l B) = P(AПB)/P(B) = 0.2/0.3 = 0.7

0.2

Example 18

A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards. Given that the card drawn is a face card, then what is the probability of getting

  • a. a king?

  • b. a spade?

  • c. a red card?

Solution to Example 18

Let A be the event of getting a face card Let B be the event of getting a king Let C be the event of getting a spade Let D be the event of getting a red card

  • a. P(B l A) = n(BПA)/n(A) = 4/12 = 1/3

Solution to Example 18

b. P(C l A) = n(CПA)/n(A) = 3/12 = ¼

c. P(D l A) = n(DПA)/n(A) = 6/12 = 1/2

Example 19

A vendor has 35 balloons on strings. Twenty balloons are yellow, 8 are red, and 7 are green. A balloon was selected at random and sold. Given that the balloon selected and sold is yellow, what is the probability that the next balloon selected and sold at random is also yellow?

  • a. P(Y2 l Y1) = 19/34

Example 20

A box contains 5 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn in succession with replacement from the box. What is the probability of getting a. red on the first draw? b. red on the second given that it is red on the first?

Solution to Example 20

  • a. P(R1) = n(R1)/n(S) = 5/9

  • b. P(R2 Ι R1) = n(R2)/n(S) = 5/9

Example 21

A box contains

6 black and 5 yellow marbles.

Two

marbles

are

drawn

from

the

box

in

succession without replacement. What is the

probability of getting

  • a. black on the first draw?

  • b. black on the second draw given that it is black on the first draw?

  • c. black on the second draw given that it is yellow on the first draw?

Solution to Example 21

  • a. P(B1) = n(B1)/n(S) = 6/11

  • b. P(B2 Ι B1) = 5/10 = ½

  • c. P(B2 Ι Y1) = 6/10 = 3/5

MULTIPLICATION RULE

We

have

shown

that

the

formula

for

the

conditional probability is given by

P(A l B)=P(AПB)/P(B) ,where P(B) is not equal to

0

If the formula above is cross multiplied and solved for P(AПB), then we have

P(AПB) = P(A l B) P(B)

EQN 10

MULTIPLICATION RULE

If

events A and

then we say that

B are independent events,

P(A l B) = P(A)

or

P(B l A) = P(B)

EQN 11

Then EQN 10 shall become

P(AПB) = P(A) P(B)

EQN 12

Example 22

A box contains

3

red

balls

are

drawn

and 8 black balls.

in

succession

If two without

replacement, what is the probability that a.) both are red? b.) the first ball is red and the second ball is black?

Solution to Example 22

Let R1 be the event of getting red on the first draw Let R2 be the event of getting red on the second draw Let B2 be the event of getting black on the second draw

a.) The probability of getting both red means the probability of getting a red on the first draw and red also on the second draw. Thus, P(R1ПR2 ) = P(R1) P(R2 l R1) = P(R1ПR2 ) = 3/11*2/10 = 6/110 = 3/55

Solution to Example 22

b) The probability of getting red on the first draw and black on the second draw is

P(R1ПR2) = P(R1) P(B2lR1) P(R1ПR2 ) = 3/11*8/10 = 24/110 = 12/55

Example 23

If

a

die

is

thrown twice, what is the probability

getting both 6?

of

Let A1 be the event of getting a 6 on the first throw Let A2 be the event of getting a 6 on the second throw

P(A1ПA2) = P(A1) P(A2) = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36

Example 24

Box A contains 5 blue and 4 white balls. Box B has 2 blue and 5 white balls. One ball is drawn at random from box A and transferred to box B without looking at the color of the ball that is drawn. What is the probability of drawing a blue ball from box B?

Solution to Example 24

Let B1 be the event of drawing a blue ball from box A Let B2 be the event of drawing a blue ball from box B Let W1 be the event of drawing a white ball from box A Let (B1ПB2 ) be the event of getting a blue ball from box A and a blue ball from box B Let (W1ПB2 ) be the event of getting a white ball from box A and a blue ball from box B

Solution to Example 24

P(B2) = P(B1ПB2 ) U P(W1ПB2 ) = P(B1ПB2 ) + P(W1ПB2 )

P(B2) = P(B1) P(B2 Ι B1) + P(W1) P(B2 Ι W1) = 5/9 * 3/8 + 4/9 * 2/8 = 15/72 + 8/72 = 23/72

Thank

you!!!