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Probability theory and pointers

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Probability Distribution

Dr. T. T. Kachwala

Definition of Probability

The Probability of a given event is an expression of

likelihood of occurrence of an event in an Experiment.

Event is an outcome of an Experiment.

Experiment is an activity that generates the outcome.

Definition of Probability

In theory of Probability, we use the term Random Experiment because the

outcome is random.

experiment. For example S = (H,T) for a game of tossing a coin.

coin.

There are different type of Events one encounters in theory of Probability; for

example mutually exclusive events, independent events, dependent events,

equally likely events, & collectively exhaustive events.

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint when both cannot

happen simultaneously in a single trial. In other words, the happening of

one precludes the happening of another and vice versa.

Examples; (i) if a single coin is tossed either head can be up or tail can be

up, both cannot be up at the same time, (ii) a person may be either alive or

dead at a point of time; he cannot be both alive as well as dead at the same

time, (iii) when a die is tossed any of the six faces may be up; the

different cases are thus mutually exclusive because no two faces can be

uppermost at the same time.

Symbolically, if A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(AB) = 0.

Independent Events

Two or more events are said to be independent when the

outcome of one does not affect, and is not affected by the

other.

Examples; (i) if a coin were tossed twice, the result of the

second throw would in no way be affected by the result of the

first throw, (ii) the results obtained by throwing a die are

independent of the results obtained by drawing an ace from a

pack of cards.

Dependent Events

Dependent events are those in which the occurrence or nonoccurrence of one event in any one trial affects the probability of

other events in other trial.

Examples; (i) if a card is drawn from a pack of playing cards and is

not replaced, this will alter the probability that the second card

drawn is, say an ace. (ii) the probability of drawing a queen from a

pack of 52 cards is 4/52. But if the card drawn (queen) is not

replaced in the pack, the probability of drawing again a queen is

3/51 (Because, the pack now contains only 51 cards out of which

there are 3 queens).

Events are said to be equally likely when one does not occur

more often than the others.

Example; if an unbiased coin or die is thrown, each face may

be expected to be observed approximately the same number

of times in the long run.

Two events A and B are collectively exhaustive if between

them they cover all the possible outcomes of an experiment.

Example; in a game of tossing a coin, events head and tail are

collectively exhaustive.

p = Number of favorable cases

Total number of equally likely cases

P (A) = p =

P(

) =A q = 1 p

P (A) + P (

p+q=1

) =A1

a

n

P (A) = p =

a

n

event in a very large number of trials.

Axiom 1

P(S) = 1

p= 1

The probability of a Sample Space = 1 i.e. the summation of the

probabilities of all the possible outcomes = 1

Axiom 2 (Probability Scale)

0 P (A) 1

The probability of an event is any value between 0 & 1. If the value is

zero, it means the event is impossible. If the value is one, it means the

event is certain to occur. The values between 0 & 1 signify the various

levels of uncertainty. The larger the value the more certain the occurrence

of the event.

Addition Rule

Case 1 : (Mutually Exclusive Events)

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A and B)

Multiplication Rule

Case 1 (Independent Events)

P (A and B) = P (A) x P (B)

P (A, B and C) = P (A) x P (B) x P (C)

Multiplication Rule

Case 2 (Dependent Events)

P (A and B) = P (A) x P (B/A)

Assuming event A is followed by event B

P (A and B) = P (B) x P (A/B)

Assuming event B is followed by event A

P (ABC) = P (A) x P (B/A) x P (C/AB)

Assuming event A is followed by event B is

followed by event C.

If we are given n independent events A1, A2, A3..An with

respective probabilities of occurrence as p1, p2, p3.pn, then

the probability of occurrence of at least one of the n events

A1, A2, A3.An can be determined as follows :

P (happening of at least one of the events)

= 1 P (happening of none of the events)

Concept of Expectation

If p is the probability of the occurrences of an event in a single trial, then

the expected number of occurrences of that event in n trials is defined as

n*p.

Example; a coin is tossed 100 times. The number of times event head will

occur is 100 x = 50. Thus the expectation may be regarded as the likely

number of successes to occur in n trials.

One of the most interesting applications of the results of the probability

theory involves estimating unknown probabilities and making decisions

on the basis of new (sample) information.

Decision theory is another field of study, which is based on Bayes

theorem. This theorem consists of a method of calculating conditional

probabilities.

The so called Bayesian approach to the problem addresses itself to the

question of determining the probability of some event Ai given that

another event B has been observed, i.e. determining the value of

P(Ai/B).

which are mutually exclusive and

collectively exhaustive as

indicated in the Venn diagram (i)

that it intersects with both A1

and A2 as indicated in the Venn

diagram (ii)

probability P(Ai/B)

P(A1) and P(A2) are the prior probabilities (simple probabilities

prior to occurrence of event B).

P(B/A1) is the conditional probability of B given that A1 has

occurred.

P(B/A2) is the conditional probability of B given that A2 has

occurred.

Given the values of P(A1), P(A2), P(B/A1) and P(B/A2) the

following table on the next slide explains the calculations of

P(Ai / B) using Bayes Theorem.

probability P(Ai/B)

Event

Prior

Probability

Conditional

Probability

Joint

Probability

Posterior

Probability

(1)

(2)

(3)

A1

P (A1)

P (B/A1)

P (A1B)

P (A1/B)

A2

P (A2)

P (B/A2)

P(A2B)

P(A2/B)

P (B)

Probability Distributions

Distributions can be classified as observed distribution & theoretical or probability distribution.

Observed distribution are based on actual observation or experimentation.

Theoretical or probability distribution are based on some theoretical formula. They are of two

type : (i) Discrete probability distribution (Binomial distribution & Poisson distribution) & (ii)

Continuous probability distribution (Normal distribution).

Binomial Distribution

Binomial Distribution is applied in applications where there are only two

possible outcomes for example: Tossing a coin, Selection of Candidate,

Inspection of an item etc.

Binomial Distribution can be applied where data is given in terms of

number of items & probability of occurrence of an event (i.e. n & p are

given)

Binomial Distribution

The binomial distribution refers to a sequence of events, which posses the following properties:

1.An experiment is performed under the same conditions for a fixed number of trials, say, n.

2.In each trial, there are only two possible outcomes of the experiment Success or Failure. The sample space of possible outcomes on each

experimental trial is : S = (Failure, Success)

3.The probability of a success denoted by p remains constant from trial to trial, the probability of a failure denoted by q is equal to 1- p.

4.The trials are independent i.e. the outcomes of any trials do not affect the outcomes on subsequent trials.

Binomial Distribution

P (r) = nCr pr qn-r

P(r) denotes the probability of getting exactly r success

Cr is a combination operator i.e. n items selected r at a

time.

Cr =

n!

(n r )!*r!

q is the probability of failure = 1 p

r is the number of success

Binomial Distribution

In binomial distribution,

P(r) = n Cr pr qn-r

If p = q, then

P(r) = n Cr pr pn-r

i.e., P(r)

= n Cr pn

Poisson Distribution

Poisson Distribution is a limiting form of Binomial distribution.

If in a Binomial Distribution, n is very large & p is very small,

such that the product np is a constant (lambda), then Binomial

distribution reduces to Poisson distribution.

1.

1. Probability that an event occurs is very small.

2. Probability that two or more events occur is so small, that we can assign a zero value.

3. Events are statistically independent, i.e. outcome of one does not affect the outcome of other event.

Normal Distribution

Normal Distribution is a Continuous Probability

Distribution.

Graphically it is represented in the form of a uniform

symmetrical bell shaped curve popularly referred as Normal

Curve.

Normal Curve is asymptotic and is defined by a theoretical

formula explained on the next slide.

Normal Distribution

2

-x

1

y

* e 2 2

2

x

y

= standard deviation of the given normal distribution.

= the constant (3.1416)

e = the constant 2.71828 (the base of the system of natural logarithm).

x = (X ), i..e, x is the stated value of the variable expressed as a

deviation from the mean

Normal Distribution

The following are the important properties of the normal curve and

the normal distribution:

1. The normal curve is symmetrical about the mean (Skewness = 0).

If the curve were folded along its vertical axis, the two halves would

coincide. The number of cases below the mean in a normal

distribution is equal to the number of cases above the mean, which

makes the mean and median coincide. The height of the curve for a

positive deviation of 3 units is the same as the height of the curve for

negative deviation of 3 units.

2. The height of the normal curve is at its maximum at the mean.

Hence the mean and mode of the normal distribution coincide. Thus

for a normal distribution mean, median and mode are all equal.

Normal Distribution

3. There is one maximum point of the normal curve, which occurs at the

mean. The height of the curve declines as we go in either direction from the

mean. The curve approaches nearer and nearer to the base but it never

touches it. i.e. the curve is asymptotic to the base on either side. Hence its

range is unlimited or infinite in both directions.

4. Since there is only one maximum point, the normal curve is unimodal,

i.e. it has only one mode.

Normal Distribution

= 2

=5

more spread the normal distribution

In application problems, we are concerned with the area

under the curve. To facilitate the procedure of obtaining

the area under the curve, we define the standard normal

curve by standardizing the random variable X.

XX

s

X -

transformation and has the effect of reducing X to units in

terms of standard deviation. The utility of this

transformation can be observed in the solved problems for

Normal Distribution.

Once we obtain the Standard Normal Variable z, we can use a

Standard Normal Table to obtain the area between an ordinate

and centre.

The total area under the standard normal curve is equal to one.

Total Area = 1

possible outcomes is equal to one.

Since the area is symmetric, the area on either side of the centre

is equal to 0.5

Area to the Right

of the Centre =

0.5

the Centre = 0.5

values of z as explained in the next slide.

Contd.

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.0

0.0000

0.040

0.0080

0.0120

0.0160

0.0199

0.0239

0.0279

0.0319

0.0359

0.1

0.0398

0.0438

0.0478

0.0517

0.0557

0.0596

0.0636

0.0675

0.0714

0.0753

0.2

0.0793

0.0832

0.0871

0.0910

0.0948

0.0987

0.1026

0.1064

0.1103

0.1141

0.3

0.1179

0.1217

0.1255

0.1293

0.1331

0.1368

0.1406

0.1443

0.1480

0.1517

0.4

0.1554

0.1591

0.1628

0.1664

0.1700

0.1736

0.1772

0.1808

0.1844

0.1879

0.5

0.1915

0.1950

0.1985

0.3019

0.2054

0.2088

0.2123

0.2157

0.2190

0.224

0.6

0.2257

0.2291

0.2324

0.2357

0.2389

0.2422

0.2454

0.2486

0.2517

0.2549

0.7

0.2580

0.2611

0.2642

0.2673

0.2704

0.2734

0.2764

0.2794

0.2823

0.2852

0.8

0.2881

0.2910

0.2939

0.2967

0.2995

0.3023

0.3051

0.3078

0.3106

0.3133

0.9

0.3159

0.3186

0.3212

0.3238

0.3264

0.3289

0.3315

0.3340

0.3365

0.3389

1.0

0.3413

0.3438

0.3461

0.3485

0.3508

0.3531

0.3554

0.3577

0.3599

0.3621

1.1

0.3643

0.3665

0.3686

0.3708

0.3729

0.3749

0.3770

0.3790

0.3810

0.3830

1.2

0.3849

0.3869

0.3888

0.3907

0.3925

0.3944

0.3962

0.3980

0.3997

0.4015

1.3

0.4032

0.4049

0.4066

0.4082

0.4099

0.4115

0.4131

0.4147

0.4162

0.4177

1.4

0.4192

0.4207

0.4222

0.4236

0.4251

0.4265

0.4279

0.4292

0.4306

0.4319

1.5

0.4332

0.4345

0.4357

0.4370

0.4382

0.4394

0.4406

0.4418

0.4429

0.4441

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1.6

0.4452

0.4463

0.4474

0.4484

0.4495

0.4505

0.4515

0.4525

0.4535

0.4545.

1.7

0.4554

0.4564

0.4573

0.4582

0.4591

0.4599

0.4608

0.4616

0.4625

0.4633

1.8

0.4641

0.4649

0.4656

0.4664

0.4671

0.4678

0.4686

0.4693

0.4699

0.4706

1.9

0.4713

0.4719

0.4726

0.4732

0.4738

0.4744

0.4750

0.4756

0.4761

0.4767

2.0

0.4772

0.4778

0.4783

0.4788

0.4793

0.4798

0.4803

0.4808

0.4812

0.4817

2.1

0.4821

0.4826

0.4830

0.4834

0.4838

0.4842

0.4846

0.4850

0.4854

0.4857

2.2

0.4861

0.4864

04868

04871

0.4875

0.4878

0.4881

0.4884

0.4887

0.4890

2.3

0.4893

0.4896

0.4898

0.4901

0.4904

0.4906

0.4909

0.4911

0.4913

0.4916

2.4

0.4918

0.4920

0.4922

0.4925

0.4927

0.4929

0.4931

0.4932

0.4934

0.4936

2.5

0.4938

0.4940

0.4941

0.4943

0.4945

0.4946

0.4948

0.4949

0.4951

0.4952

2.6

0.4953

0.4955

0.4956

0.4957

0.4959

0.4960

0.4961

0.4962

0.4963

0.4964

2.7

0.4965

0.4966

0.4967

0.4968

0.4969

0.4970

0.4971

0.4972

0.4973

0.4974

2.8

0.4974

0.4975

0.4976

0.4977

0.4977

0.4978

0.4979

0.4979

0.4980

0.4981

2.9

0.4981

0.4982

0.4982

0.4984

0.4984

0.4984

0.4985

0.4985

0.4986

0.4986

3.0

0.4987

0.4987

0.4987

0.4988

0.4988

0.4989

0.4989

0.4989

0.4990

0.4990

a) Mean 1, covers 68.26% area; 34.13% area will

lie

on either side of the mean.

34.13%

-3 S.D.

-2 S.D.

-1 S.D.

34.13%

Mean

+1 S.D.

+2 S.D.

+3 S.D.

47.72%

-3 S.D.

-2 S.D.

47.72%

Mean

+2 S.D.

+3 S.D.

49.87%

-3 S.D.

49.87%

Mean

+3 S.D.

distributed as follows:

Please Feel Free to Contact

Dr.T.T. Kachwala

Tel. 022 4235 5555 / 42355871

Mob. +91 9869166393

Email : tkachwala@nmims.edu

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