Supplement 6 Heizer Operations Management

Operations
Management
Supplement 6
Statistical Process
Control
PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer/Render
Principles of Operations Management, 7e
Operations Management, 9e
2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.
S6 1
Outline
Statistical Process Control (SPC)
Control Charts for Variables
The Central Limit Theorem
Setting Mean Chart Limits (x-Charts)
Setting Range Chart Limits (R-Charts)
Using Mean and Range Charts
Control Charts for Attributes
Managerial Issues and Control Charts
S6 2
Outline Continued
Process Capability
Process Capability Ratio (Cp)
Process Capability Index (Cpk )
Acceptance Sampling
Operating Characteristic Curve
Average Outgoing Quality
S6 3
Learning Objectives
When you complete this supplement
you should be able to:
1. Explain the use of a control chart
2. Explain the role of the central limit
theorem in SPC
3. Build x-charts and R-charts
4. List the five steps involved in
building control charts
S6 4
Learning Objectives
When you complete this supplement you
should be able to:
5. Build p-charts and c-charts
6. Explain process capability and
compute Cp and Cpk
7. Explain acceptance sampling
8. Compute the AOQ
S6 5
Statistical Process Control

(SPC)
Variability is inherent
in every process
Natural or common
causes
Special or assignable causes
Provides a statistical signal when

assignable causes are present
Detect and eliminate assignable
causes of variation
S6 6
Natural Variations
Also called common causes
Affect virtually all production processes
Expected amount of variation
Output measures follow a probability
distribution
For any distribution there is a measure
of central tendency and dispersion
If the distribution of outputs falls within
acceptable limits, the process is said to
be in control
S6 7
Assignable Variations
Also called special causes of variation
Generally this is some change in the process
Variations that can be traced to a specific

reason
The objective is to discover when
assignable causes are present
Eliminate the bad causes
Incorporate the good causes
S6 8
Samples
To measure the process, we take samples
and analyze the sample statistics following
these steps
Figure S6.1
Frequency
(a) Samples of the

product, say five
boxes of cereal
taken off the filling
machine line, vary
from each other in
weight
Each of these
represents one
sample of five
boxes of cereal
# #
# # #
# # # #
# # # # # # #
#
# # # # # # # # #
Weight
S6 9
Samples
these steps
Figure S6.1
Frequency
(b) After enough

samples are
taken from a
stable process,
they form a
pattern called a
distribution
The solid line

represents the
distribution
Weight
S6 10
Samples
these steps
Frequency
(c) There are many types of distributions, including

the normal (bell-shaped) distribution, but
distributions do differ in terms of central
tendency (mean), standard deviation or
Figure S6.1
variance, and shape
Central tendency
Weight
Variation
Weight
Shape
Weight
S6 11
Samples
(d) If only natural

causes of
variation are
present, the
output of a
process forms a
distribution that
is stable over
time and is
predictable
Frequency

these steps
Prediction
e
Tim
Weight
Figure S6.1
S6 12
Samples
these steps
Frequency
(e) If assignable
causes are
present, the
process output is
not stable over
time and is not
predicable
?
?? ??
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
??
?
?
?
Prediction
e
Tim
Weight
Figure S6.1
S6 13
Control Charts
Constructed from historical data, the
purpose of control charts is to help
distinguish between natural variations
and variations due to assignable
causes
S6 14
Process Control
Frequency
Lower control limit
(a) In statistical
control and capable
of producing within
control limits
Upper control limit
(b) In statistical
control but not
capable of producing
within control limits
(c) Out of control

Size
(weight, length, speed, etc.)
Figure S6.2
S6 15
Types of Data
Variables
Characteristics that
can take any real
value
May be in whole or
in fractional
numbers
Continuous random
variables
Attributes
Defect-related
characteristics
Classify products
as either good or
bad or count
defects
Categorical or
discrete random
variables
S6 16
Central Limit Theorem

Regardless of the distribution of the
population, the distribution of sample means
drawn from the population will tend to follow
a normal curve
1. The mean of the sampling
distribution (x) will be the same
as the population mean
2. The standard deviation of the
sampling distribution ( x) will
equal the population standard
deviation ( ) divided by the
square root of the sample size, n
x=
x =
n
S6 17
Population and Sampling

Distributions
Three population
distributions
Distribution of
sample means
Mean of sample means = x
Beta
Standard
deviation of = =
x
n
the sample
means
Normal
Uniform
|
-3 x
-2 x
-1 x
+1 x +2 x +3 x
95.45% fall within 2 x

99.73% of all x
fall within 3 x
Figure S6.3
S6 18
Sampling Distribution
Sampling
distribution
of means
Process
distribution
of means
x=
(mean)
Figure S6.4
S6 19
Control Charts for Variables

For variables that have
continuous dimensions
Weight, speed, length,
strength, etc.
x-charts are to control

the central tendency of the process
R-charts are to control the dispersion of
the process
These two charts must be used together
S6 20
Setting Chart Limits

For x-Charts when we know
Upper control limit (UCL) = x + z x
Lower control limit (LCL) = x - z x
where
x
=
mean of the sample means
or a target value set for the process
z
=
number of normal standard
deviations
x =
standard deviation of the
sample means
=
/ n
=
population standard
S6 21
Setting Control Limits

Hour 1
Sample
Weight of
Number
Oat Flakes
1
17
2
13
3
16
4
18
n=9
5
17
6
16
7
15
8
17
9
16
Mean 16.1
=1
Hour
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mean
16.1
16.8
15.5
16.5
16.5
16.4
Hour
7
8
9
10
11
12
Mean
15.2
16.4
16.3
14.8
14.2
17.3
For 99.73% control limits, z = 3

UCLx = x + z x = 16 + 3(1/3) = 17 ozs
LCLx = x - z x = 16 - 3(1/3) = 15 ozs
S6 22

Control Chart
for sample of
9 boxes
Out of
control
Variation due
to assignable
causes
17 = UCL
Variation due to
natural causes
16 = Mean
15 = LCL
| | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sample number
Variation due
to assignable
Out of
causes
control
S6 23

For x-Charts when we dont know
Upper control limit (UCL) = x + A2R
Lower control limit (LCL) = x - A2R
where
R
=
samples
A2 =
Table S6.1
x
=
average range of the

control chart factor found in
mean of the sample means
S6 24
Control Chart Factors

Sample Size
Range
n
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12
Mean Factor
Upper Range
A2
1.880
1.023
.729
.577
.483
.419
.373
.337
.308
.266
D4
3.268
2.574
2.282
2.115
2.004
1.924
1.864
1.816
1.777
1.716
Lower
D3
0
0
0
0
0
0.076
0.136
0.184
0.223
0.284
Table S6.1
S6 25

Process average x = 12 ounces
Average range R = .25
Sample size n = 5
S6 26

Sample size n = 5
UCLx
= x + A2R
= 12 + (.577)(.25)
= 12 + .144
= 12.144 ounces
From
Table S6.1
S6 27

Sample size n = 5
UCLx
LCLx
= x + A2R
= 12 + (.577)(.25)
= 12 + .144
= 12.144 ounces
UCL = 12.144
= x - A2R
= 12 - .144
= 11.857 ounces
LCL = 11.857
Mean = 12
S6 28
R Chart
Type of variables control chart
Shows sample ranges over time
Difference between smallest and
largest values in sample
Monitors process variability

Independent from process mean
S6 29

For R-Charts
Upper control limit (UCLR) = D4R
Lower control limit (LCLR) = D3R
where
R
=
average range of the
samples
D3 and D4 =
control chart factors
from Table S6.1
S6 30

Average range R = 5.3 pounds
Sample size n = 5
From Table S6.1 D4 = 2.115, D3 = 0
UCLR = D4R
= (2.115)(5.3)
= 11.2 pounds
UCL = 11.2
LCLR
LCL = 0
= D3 R
= (0)(5.3)
= 0 pounds
Mean = 5.3
S6 31
Mean and Range Charts

(a)
(Sampling mean is
shifting upward but
range is consistent)
These
sampling
distributions
result in the
charts below
UCL
x-chart
LCL
(x-chart detects
shift in central
tendency)
UCL
R-chart
LCL
(R-chart does not

detect change in
mean)
Figure S6.5
S6 32
Mean and Range Charts

(b)
These
sampling
distributions
result in the
charts below
(Sampling mean
is constant but
dispersion is
increasing)
UCL
x-chart
LCL
(x-chart does not

detect the increase
in dispersion)
UCL
R-chart
LCL
(R-chart detects
increase in
dispersion)
Figure S6.5
S6 33
Steps In Creating Control

Charts
1. Take samples from the population and
compute the appropriate sample statistic
2. Use the sample statistic to calculate control
limits and draw the control chart
3. Plot sample results on the control chart and
determine the state of the process (in or out of
control)
4. Investigate possible assignable causes and
take any indicated actions
5. Continue sampling from the process and reset
the control limits when necessary
S6 34
Manual and Automated

Control Charts
S6 35
Control Charts for Attributes

For variables that are categorical
Good/bad, yes/no,
acceptable/unacceptable
Measurement is typically counting

defectives
Charts may measure
Percent defective (p-chart)
Number of defects (c-chart)
S6 36
Control Limits for p-Charts

Population will be a binomial distribution,
but applying the Central Limit Theorem
allows us to assume a normal distribution
for the sample statistics
UCLp = p + z p^
p =
^
LCLp = p - z p^
where
^
p
z
p
n
=
=
=
=
p(1 - p)
n
mean fraction defective in the sample

number of standard deviations
standard deviation of the sampling dis
sample size
S6 37
p-Chart for Data Entry

Sample Number
Number of Errors
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
p=
Fraction
Defective
Sample Number
Number of Errors
Fraction
Defective
.06
.05
.00
.01
.04
.02
.05
.03
.03
.02
11
6
12
1
13
8
14
7
15
5
16
4
17
11
18
3
19
0
20
4
Total = 80
.06
.01
.08
.07
.05
.04
.11
.03
.00
.04
6
5
0
1
4
2
5
3
3
2
80
(100)(20)
= .04
p^ =
(.04)(1 - .04)
100
= .02
S6 38

UCLp = p + z p^ = .04 + 3(.02) = .10
Fraction defective
LCLp = p - z p^ = .04 - 3(.02) = 0

.11
.10
.09
.08
.07
.06
.05
.04
.03
.02
.01
.00
UCLp = 0.10
p = 0.04
10
12
14
16
18
20
LCLp = 0.00
Sample number
S6 39

UCLp = p + z p^ = .04 + 3(.02) = .10
Fraction defective
Possible
LCLp = p - z p^ = .04 - 3(.02) =assignable
0
causes present
.11
.10
.09
.08
.07
.06
.05
.04
.03
.02
.01
.00
UCLp = 0.10
p = 0.04
10
12
14
16
18
20
LCLp = 0.00
Sample number
S6 40
Control Limits for c-Charts

Population will be a Poisson distribution,
but applying the Central Limit Theorem
allows us to assume a normal distribution
for the sample statistics
UCLc = c + 3 c
where
LCLc = c - 3 c
=
mean number defective in the sam
S6 41
c-Chart for Cab Company

c = 54 complaints/9 days = 6 complaints/day
LCLc = c - 3 c
=6-3 6
=0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Number defective
UCLc = c + 3 c
=6+3 6
= 13.35
|
1 2
UCLc = 13.35
c= 6
| |
3 4
|
5
|
6
|
7
LCLc = 0
| |
8 9
Day
S6 42
Managerial Issues and

Control Charts
Three major management decisions:
Select points in the processes that
need SPC
Determine the appropriate charting
technique
Set clear policies and procedures
S6 43
Which Control Chart to Use

Variables Data
Using an x-chart and R-chart:
Observations are variables
Collect 20 - 25 samples of n = 4, or n =
5, or more, each from a stable process
and compute the mean for the x-chart
and range for the R-chart
Track samples of n observations each
S6 44

Attribute Data
Using the p-chart:
Observations are attributes that can
be categorized in two states
We deal with fraction, proportion, or
percent defectives
Have several samples, each with
many observations
S6 45

Attribute Data
Using a c-Chart:
Observations are attributes whose
defects per unit of output can be
counted
The number counted is a small part of
the possible occurrences
Defects such as number of blemishes
on a desk, number of typos in a page
of text, flaws in a bolt of cloth
S6 46
Patterns in Control Charts

Upper control limit
Target
Lower control limit

Figure S6.7
Normal behavior.
Process is in control.
S6 47

Upper control limit
Target
Lower control limit

Figure S6.7
One plot out above (or

below). Investigate for
cause. Process is out
of control.
S6 48

Upper control limit
Target
Lower control limit

Figure S6.7
Trends in either
direction, 5 plots.
Investigate for cause of
progressive change.
S6 49

Upper control limit
Target
Lower control limit

Figure S6.7
Two plots very near

lower (or upper)
control. Investigate for
cause.
S6 50

Upper control limit
Target
Lower control limit

Figure S6.7
Run of 5 above (or

below) central line.
Investigate for cause.
S6 51

Upper control limit
Target
Lower control limit

Figure S6.7
Erratic behavior.
Investigate.
S6 52
Process Capability
The natural variation of a process
should be small enough to produce
products that meet the standards
required
A process in statistical control does not
necessarily meet the design
specifications
Process capability is a measure of the
relationship between the natural
variation of the process and the design
specifications
S6 53
Process Capability Ratio

Upper Specification - Lower Specification
Cp =
6
A capable process must have a Cp of at
least 1.0
Does not look at how well the process
is centered in the specification range
Often a target value of Cp = 1.33 is used
to allow for off-center processes
Six Sigma quality requires a Cp = 2.0
S6 54

Insurance claims process
Process mean x = 210.0 minutes
Process standard deviation = .516 minutes
Design specification = 210 3 minutes
Cp =
6
S6 55

Cp =
6
213 - 207
=
= 1.938
6(.516)
S6 56

Cp =
6
213 - 207
=
= 1.938
Process is
6(.516)
capable
S6 57
Process Capability Index

Upper
Lower
Cpk = minimum of Specification - x , x - Specification
Limit
Limit
A capable process must have a Cpk of at

least 1.0
A capable process is not necessarily in the
center of the specification, but it falls within
the specification limit at both extremes
S6 58

New Cutting Machine
New process mean x = .250 inches
Process standard deviation = .0005 inches
Upper Specification Limit = .251 inches
Lower Specification Limit = .249 inches
S6 59

New Cutting Machine
Cpk = minimum of
(.251) - .250
,
(3).0005
S6 60

New Cutting Machine
Cpk = minimum of
(.251) - .250
.250 - (.249)
,
(3).0005
(3).0005
Both calculations result in

.001
Cpk =
= 0.67
.0015
New machine is
NOT capable
S6 61
Interpreting Cpk
Cpk = negative number
Cpk = zero
Cpk = between 0 and 1
Cpk = 1
Cpk > 1
Figure S6.8
S6 62
Acceptance Sampling
Form of quality testing used for
incoming materials or finished goods
Take samples at random from a lot
(shipment) of items
Inspect each of the items in the sample
Decide whether to reject the whole lot
based on the inspection results
Only screens lots; does not drive

quality improvement efforts
S6 63
Acceptance Sampling
Form of quality testing used for
incoming materials or finished goods
Take samples at random from a lot
Rejected lots can be:
(shipment) of items
Returned
to the
Inspect each of the
items in the
sample
supplier
Decide whether to reject the whole lot
Culledresults
for
based on the inspection
defectives
Only screens lots; does
drive
(100%not
inspection)
quality improvement efforts
S6 64
Operating Characteristic
Curve
Shows how well a sampling plan
discriminates between good and
bad lots (shipments)
Shows the relationship between
the probability of accepting a lot
and its quality level
S6 65
P(Accept Whole Shipment)
The Perfect OC Curve

Keep whole
shipment
100
75
Return whole
shipment
50
25
Cut-Off
0
|
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Defective in Lot
S6 66
An OC Curve
Figure S6.9
= 0.05 producers risk for AQL
100
95
75
Probability
of
50
Acceptance
25
= 0.10
10
|
0 0
Consumers
risk for LTPD
|
1
Good
lots
|
2
AQL
|
3
|
4
|
5
Indifference
zone
|
6
|
7
LTPD
|
8
Percent
defective
Bad lots
S6 67
AQL and LTPD

Acceptable Quality Level (AQL)
Poorest level of quality we are
willing to accept
Lot Tolerance Percent Defective

(LTPD)
Quality level we consider bad
Consumer (buyer) does not want to
accept lots with more defects than
LTPD
S6 68
Producers and Consumers

Risks
Producer's risk ( )
Probability of rejecting a good lot
Probability of rejecting a lot when the
fraction defective is at or above the
AQL
Consumer's risk ( )
Probability of accepting a bad lot
Probability of accepting a lot when
fraction defective is below the LTPD
S6 69
OC Curves for Different

Sampling Plans
n = 50, c = 1
n = 100, c = 2
S6 70

AOQ =
(Pd)(Pa)(N - n)
N
where
Pd = true percent defective of the lot
Pa = probability of accepting the lot
N = number of items in the lot
n = number of items in the sample
S6 71

1. If a sampling plan replaces all defectives
2. If we know the incoming percent
defective for the lot
We can compute the average outgoing
quality (AOQ) in percent defective
The maximum AOQ is the highest percent
defective or the lowest average quality
and is called the average outgoing quality
level (AOQL)
S6 72
Automated Inspection
Modern
technologies
allow virtually
100%
inspection at
minimal costs
Not suitable
for all
situations
S6 73
SPC and Process Variability

Lower
specification
limit
Upper
specification
limit
(a) Acceptance
sampling (Some
bad units accepted)
(b) Statistical process
control (Keep the
process in control)
(c) Cpk >1 (Design
a process that
is in control)
Process mean,
Figure S6.10
S6 74

Supplement 6 Heizer Operations Management

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Supplement 6 Heizer Operations Management

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Operations

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Statistical Process Control

Provides a statistical signal when

Variations that can be traced to a specific

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

(a) Samples of the

(b) After enough

The solid line

(c) There are many types of distributions, including

(d) If only natural

To measure the process, we take samples

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

(c) Out of control

Central Limit Theorem

Population and Sampling

95.45% fall within 2 x

Control Charts for Variables

x-charts are to control

Setting Chart Limits

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Setting Control Limits

For 99.73% control limits, z = 3

Setting Control Limits

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Setting Chart Limits

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

average range of the

Control Chart Factors

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Setting Control Limits

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Setting Control Limits

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Setting Control Limits

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Monitors process variability

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Setting Chart Limits

Setting Control Limits

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Mean and Range Charts

(R-chart does not

Mean and Range Charts

(x-chart does not

Steps In Creating Control

Manual and Automated

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

Control Charts for Attributes

Measurement is typically counting

Control Limits for p-Charts

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

mean fraction defective in the sample

p-Chart for Data Entry

p-Chart for Data Entry

LCLp = p - z p^ = .04 - 3(.02) = 0

p-Chart for Data Entry

Control Limits for c-Charts

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

mean number defective in the sam

c-Chart for Cab Company