Sales Forecasting
CHAPTER
Chapter Objectives
FORMULATE A HYPOTHESIS
• A tentative explanation that sets the stage for
more in-depth research.
COLLECT DATA
• Secondary data Previously published information.
• Primary data Information collected specifically
for the investigation at hand.
SAMPLING TECHNIQUES
• Sampling Process of selecting survey respondents or research participants.
• Probability sample Sample that gives every member of the population a
chance of being selected.
• Simple random sample, stratified sample, or cluster sample.
• Nonprobability sample Sample that involves personal judgment
somewhere in the process.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SURVEY METHOD
• Telephone interviews—inexpensive way of getting a small
quantity of relatively impersonal information.
• Personal interviews—allow researchers to obtain detailed information and
ask follow-up questions.
• Focus group Simultaneous personal interview of a small group of
individuals, which relies on group discussion about a certain topic.
• Mail surveys—cost-effective means that allows respondents anonymity.
• Fax surveys—difficult to get good household sample, and federal junk fax
law limits its use commercially.
• Online surveys and other Internet-based methods—allow researchers to
speed the survey process, increase sample sizes, ignore geographic
boundaries, and dramatically reduce costs.
• Experimental method—controlled experiment, for example; least used
method.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
INTERPRETIVE RESEARCH
• Provides insight into consumer behavior and the ways consumers interact
with brands.
• Researcher spends time studying the culture, called ethnographic research.
• Focus is on understanding the meaning of the product or consumption in
the consumer’s life.
• Cost is higher than other forms of research.
• Captures what consumers actually do, not just what they say they do.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY IN
MARKETING RESEARCH
MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEMS (MIS)
• A planned, computer-based system designed to provide decision makers
with a continuous flow of information relevant to their areas of
responsibility.
• Continually monitors marketing environment and provides instantaneous
information.
DATA MINING
• The process of searching through computerized data files to detect
patterns.
• Focuses on identifying relationships that are not obvious to marketers.
• Efficient way to sort through huge amounts of data and make sense of it.
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
• Process of gathering information and analyzing it to improve business
strategy, tactics, and daily operations.
COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
• A form of business intelligence that focuses on finding information about
competitors using published sources, interviews, observations by
salespeople and suppliers in the industry, and other sources.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SALES FORECASTING
• Sales forecast Estimate of a firm’s revenue for a specified time period.