Devotion

Chapter 10
Risk and Opportunities Management

Mamahit Agatha
Kaparang Chrysto
Liusito Reina
Maramis Jeanette
Wahongan Jessica

. . . as we know, there are known knowns;

there are things we know we know. We also
know there are known unknowns; that is to
say we know there are some things we do
not know. But there are also unknown
unknowns the ones we dont know we dont
know.
(Donald Rumsfeld)

Principle
Resiko dan ketidakpastian adalah dasar-dasar
dari proyek.
Ada pendekatan yang berkembang dengan baik
dapat di aplikasikan dalam pengelolaan resiko.
Sementara selalu ada potensi proyek yang buruk,
selalu ada juga terbalik. Kesempatan sama
pentingnya dengan resiko.

Learning objectives

Mengakui sifat dari resiko.

Menerapkan dasar peralatan kuantitatif dan kualitatif
untuk mengelola resiko.
Mengakui betapa pentingnya mempertimbangkan
kesempatan yang ada yang disajikan sebuah proyek.

Introduction

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

10.1 The Nature of Risk and Risk

Management

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

Definition
Pengertian dari risiko:
kemungkinan mengalami kerusakan atau kerugian
(pmi 2004)
Ketidakpastian yang melekat dalam rencana dan
kemungkinan terjadinya sesuatu (yaitu kontingensi)
yang dapat mempengaruhi prospek untuk mencapai
tujuan bisnis atau proyek. (BS 6079)

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

Kerangka untuk manajemen risiko

- Tiga bidang utama dari Project Risk Management:
identifikasi, kuantifikasi dan kontrol respon atau
mitigasi(see Figure 10.1)

Elemen pertama dari kerangka kerja ini adalah

identifikasi risiko, proses memprediksi hasil risiko
utama - indikator bahwa ada sesuatu yang tidak
beres dalam proyek

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

LIUSITO, REINA

Kategori Analisa Risiko

Analisa TCQ
1. Time
2. Cost
3. Quality
further risk categories added
1. Health and safety
2. Legal

LIUSITO, REINA

Asumsi-asumsi

LIUSITO, REINA

Response Control/Mitigation

Setelah mengidentifikasi elemen resiko yang harus

dikelola, diperlukan beberapa prosedur untuk
memastikan bahwa kemungkinan untuk
berkurangnya resiko atau efek yang akan terjadi
dapat menggunakan beberapa cara. Sebagai contoh,
resiko aktivitas berjalan kritis dapat dikurangi
melalui pengurangan skala kegiatan atau dengan
memastikan bahwa ada cara lain untuk menangani
proyek tersebut dengan hasil yang baik seperti
proyek yang tertunda. Kedua pendekatan tersebut
mencakup dalam Gambar 10.1 yaitu tindakan
korektif dan kontingensi dan cadangan.
LIUSITO, REINA

Selain itu, beberapa organisasi tidak ingin menerima

resiko tersebut yaitu adanya ketidakpastian dalam
sebuah proyek. Ini sering terjadi meskipun hal
seperti ini akan dibahas dalam bab 14, sering
dianggap seperti keberhasilan yang terbatas. Hal
seperti ini dapat menjadi sasaran subyek asuransi
sebagai salah satu cara sebuah organisasi ingin
membatasi resiko dalam setiap satu proyek.

Penggunaan Formal teknik analisis risiko

mungkin diperlukan oleh :
kebijakan perusahaan ;
klien ( terutama untuk kontrak pertahanan ) .
Manfaat yang dianggap akan terjadi:
menyediakan sarana untuk meningkatkan rencana
proyek dan mencerminkan realitas dengan lebih
baik;
menyoroti area untuk perhatian dan perencanaan
kontinjensi pada tahap perencanaan ;

LIUSITO, REINA

 mencoba untuk memanfaatkan banyak ' gut-feel

element' dalam penilaian risiko dan menggunakan
intuisi penting ini sebagai titik awal untuk analisis
lebih lanjut ;
memungkinkan kuantifikasi risiko untuk
membangun pengalaman dalam cara yang
terstruktur dan memungkinkan faktor ini untuk
ditelusuri secara historis untuk kepentingan masa
depan dalam proyek-proyek lain .

Proses resiko mendasar lainnya

Pengelolaan risiko tidak berhenti pada titik ini.
Banyak organisasi mengklaim manfaat dari
pengelolaan risiko menjadi proses yang
berkelanjutan di seluruh proyek . Dokumentasi
khusus membantu untuk mendukung proses ini
berlangsung meliputi penggunaan risk register
atau log risiko.

LIUSITO, REINA

10.2 Qualitative and Quantitative

Approaches
Dua pendekatan yang sama:

1. Menilai berapa besar kemungkinan suatu even terlaksana

disuatu tempat yang kemungkinan terlaksana begitu mustahil

2 .Menentukan besarnya pengaruh even tersebut contohnya

pengaruh yang mungkin ada

Critical

apakah akan menimbulkan kegagalan secara total di satu

bagian atau banyak dari kegiatan proyek?

Major

apakah akan meningkatkan cost di satu atau banyak area?

Minor

apakah akan menyebabkan ketidaknyamanan tapi tidak

membuat proyek itu di set kembali secara financial ataupun
waktu.
MARAMIS JEANETTE

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Qualitative Approaches

MARAMIS JEANETTE

(likelihood) x (severity) x (hideability)

Quantitative approaches
As for planning, risk analysis is an attempt to provide
a mathematical model of the scenario in an attempt
to allow the brain to comprehend the effect of a large
number of variables on the outcome.
Risk quantification techniques that will be discussed
here are:
Expected value;
Sensitivity analysis;
Monte Carlo simulation;
PERT.

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Expected Value

The expected value of an event is the possible

outcome times the probability of its occurrence
e.g. if a project has a 50 per cent chance of yielding a
profit of 30 million, the expected value is 0.5 30
million = 15 million.

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Sensitivity analysis

This works similarly to PERT analysis an expected

value for the main inputs (e.g. costs) to the project is
put into the calculations of the outcome as well as an
optimistic (in this case +n per cent) and pessimistic
(n per cent) value (value of n is often 10).
This will show the effect on the outcome of a change
in the variable considered and can show where
management control attention should be focused.

MARAMIS JEANETTE

MARAMIS JEANETTE

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Monte Carlo Simulation

Requires the use of a computer to be practicable and

uses a range of values of distribution, rather than
single values, for time, cost and other estimates.
Monte Carlo simulation is available as an extension
to most popular spreadsheet packages (including
Excel).

MARAMIS JEANETTE

WAHONGAN,
JESSICA

PERT

The technique is intended to deal with the likelihood

that the single value given as the estimated time for
completion of activities is going to have a degree of error
associated with it. Instead of taking a single time, three
time estimates for each activity are required:
optimistic time how long the activity would take if the
conditions were ideal;
most probable time time if conditions were normal;
pessimistic time how long the activity would take if a
significant proportion of the things that could go wrong
did go wrong.

There are an infinite number of possibilities as to

how this range is distributed,
e.g. optimistic and most probable times may be close
together with the pessimistic time considerably
different from the other two, or all three may be very
close together.
This flexibility in the distribution that is applied is
one of the major appeals of the technique.

WAHONGAN, JESSICA

WAHONGAN JESSICA

expected time = [o + 4m + p]/6

In the case of activity A,
the expected time = [3 + [4 5] + 7]/6 = 5
For activity B,
the expected time = [2 + [4 3] + 10]/6 = 4

WAHONGAN JESSICA

The distribution activity B can be represented by

Figure 10.5.

Wahongan Jessica

The example is now completed using the expected

times shown in Table 10.3.
Original Analysis (CPA)
Critical path ACFH = 24 days
PERT
Critical path ADGH = 25 days

variance of activity time = [[p o]/6]2

Wahongan Jessica

Explanation

1 Calculate the variance for each activity.

2 Calculate the variance for each path (a sequence of activities that will take
you from the first event to the last there are generally many paths through
networks) in the network diagram.
3 Calculate the standard deviation for that path:
path = square root of the variance
4 Identify the time within which you wish to complete the activities. Calculate
the value for z determined by:
z = [specified time expected time]/path
5 Refer to the Appendix at the end of this chapter the value of z corresponds
to a probability (expressed between 0 and 1). This is the probability that the
activity path will be completed within the time identified in 4.
6 The probability that all the paths that have been considered will be finished in
the given time is found by multiplying the probabilities for each of the paths
together.

This method is best illustrated by an example.

1 Calculate the variance for each activity (shown in Table 10.4).
2 Now it is necessary to identify the paths. There are several rules
regarding the selection of paths for this process:
Each activity must be on only one path where activities are shared
between several
paths, the one that is the critical path should be used;
Activities on different paths need to be independent there should be no
unwritten
logic relationship between activities on different paths.
With these in mind the three paths that need to be considered here are:
BE
CF
DG
The following steps are calculated in Table 10.5. The variances are then
summed for each path.

Wahongan
Jessica

Wahongan
Jessica

3 The standard deviations are then calculated.

4 The time required for completion is
arbitrarily 11 days.
5 The z values are added.
6 The probabilities are derived from Table
10.4.
7 The probability of each of these times being
achieved is clearly highest where the expected
time was less than the time required for completion
(path BE).

Wahongan
Jessica

0.7673 0.5000 0.2981 = 0.1144

i.e. there is less than a 12 per cent chance that this
part of the project will be completed in 11 days.

The use of PERT in practice

PERT provides an in-built level of risk assessment,

considering as it does three values for time estimates
(optimistic, most likely and pessimistic).
The objective of the risk analysis is to enable the
project manager to include contingencies, that is,
having identified the most risky elements of
the project, to put some actions in place to make
sure that the risk is minimised.

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

PERT was very popular in the 1960s.

One project demanded by a senior manager was
thought to be difficult and challenging. The
designated project manager was unhappy about what
he was being asked to take on, believing that the
failure of the project was a high risk and could be
career limiting

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

A basic analysis of the chance of success through

PERT demonstrated that with the level of resources
allocated, he had less than a 5 per cent chance of
succeeding in making the delivery date for the
project.
Communicating this level of risk and requiring
senior management acceptance of this level of risk
resulted in the opportunity to re-scope the project
and a much higher chance of success that was
acceptable to both the project manager and the firm.

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

10.3 Opportunities management

On a recent multi-million pound project, my team
spent two days trying to reduce a 50000 risk. I
would much rather they had spent that time looking
to see how the project could yield an extra 50 000
of business benefit.
(Project Director, Rolls-Royce)

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

One of 3Ms most successful and enduring projects

has been the Post-it note.
many people who specialise in the management of
innovation that it is rare that great products are the
result of a development process that started out with
that objective in mind.
It is worth reconsidering the issue, as it is essential
that there is a route not only for threats to the project
(as is the negative side of risks) but also for the
exploitation of opportunities.
MAMAHIT, AGATHA

There are many approaches to assessing the

opportunities. One framework is:

Negative to positive
Opportunities of response
Random good fortune

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

Thank You