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The HR Forecasting

Mamun Muztaba
AMC, BIM

Objectives of this
Session
After compilation of this session we will know HR Forecasting
Benefits of HR Forecasting
Forecasting Activity Categories
Key Personnel analyses Conducted by HR
Forecasters
Factors Affecting the HR Forecasting Process
Determining Net HR Requirements
HR Forecasting Time Horizons

HR Forecasting
HR Forecasting
............constitutes the heart of the HR
planning process and can be defined as
ascertaining the net requirement for personnel by
determining the demand for and supply of human
resources now and in the future

HR Forecasting
HR Forecasting attempts
to determine the supply
and demand for various
types of human
resources, and to
predict areas within the
organization where
there will be labor
shortages or surpluses.

There are major steps to


forecasting:

Identify organizational goals,


objectives, and plans.
Determine overall demand
requirements for personnel.
Assess in-house skills and other
internal supply characteristics.
Determine the net demand
requirements that must be met from
external, environmental supply
sources.
Develop HR plans and programs to
ensure that the right people are in the
right place.

HR Forecasting
(cont.)
After determining the demand for and supply of
workers, the organizations HR staff develop
specific programs to reconcile the difference
between the requirement for labours in various
employment categories and its availability, both
internally and in organizations environment.
Programs in such areas as Training and
Development, Career Planning, Recruitment and
Selection, Managerial Appraisal, and so on are all
stimulated by means of the HR forecasting process.

Steps to forecasting
Corporate Analysis

Forecast Demand for Labor

Forecast Internal
Supply of Labor

Forecast External
Supply of Labor

Develop Plan to Match


Demand with Supply

Benefits of HR
Forecasting
Reduces HR costs
Increases Organizational Flexibility
Ensures a Close Linkage to the Macro Business
Forecasting Process
Ensures that Organizational Requirements take
Precedence over Issues of Resource Constraint
and Scarcity

Forecasting Activity
Categories
Transaction-based Forecasting
forecasting that focuses on tracking internal change instituted
by the organizations managers.
Event-based Forecasting
forecasting concerned
environment.

with

changes

in

the

external

Process-based Forecasting
forecasting not focused on a specific internal organizational
event but on the flow or sequencing of several work activities
(e.g. Warehousing shipping process)

Key Personnel analyses


Conducted by HR
Forecasters
1.

Specialist/ Technical/ Professional Personnel


Workers holding trade qualifications that are in high
demand or that require lengthy preparatory training for
attainment of skill competency constitute a key area of
focus for Hr forecasting.
2. Employment Equity- Designated Group
Membership
a) People of Aboriginal (ethnic) descent
b) Women
c) People with disabilities
d) Members of visible minorities

Key Personnel analyses


Conducted by HR
Forecasters (cont.)
3. Managerial and Executive Personnel
To be successful, any organization must ensure that
its executives and managers possess the skills
required for success in their specific environmental
niche.
4. Recruits
The goal of HR forecasting is to obtain sufficient
numbers of trained personnel who will be able to
perform successfully in jobs when those jobs need
to be filled.

Factors Affecting the HR


Forecasting Process
Internal/Organizational
Corporate mission statement, strategic goals
Operational goals, production budgets
HR policies (e.g. compensation, succession)
Organizational structure, restructuring, mergers, etc
Worker KSAs/competencies and expectations
HRMS level of development
Organizational culture, workforce climate and satisfaction
and internal communications
Job analysis: workforce coverage, current data

Factors Affecting the HR


Forecasting Process
(cont.)
External/Environmental
Economic situation
Labour markets and unions
Governmental laws and regulations
Industry and product life cycles
Technological changes
Competitor labour usage
Global market for skilled labour
Demographic changes

Determining Net HR
Requirements
1. Determine HR Demand
- In determining demand, a variety of factors have to be
considered. First, each organizational sub-unit has to submit its
net personnel requirements to the corporate forecasting unit,
based on future needs for labour required to meet the agreedon corporate and sub-unit objectives (market share, production
levels, size or expansion, etc.)
- This HR demand figure must incorporate the individuals
needed to maintain or replace the current personnel who retire,
die, are fired or otherwise terminated, or take long leaves
(disability, training course, etc) as well as the replacement for
individuals who are promoted or transferred out of the
department.

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)

Send 2 HRD

Determine HR Demand Flowchart


Corporate
HRD
As

F1

R
P
g
n
i
k

F2

F3

Supply HR

F4

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
2. Ascertain HR Supply

Internal Supply (current members of the organizational workforce)


Internal supply can identify in various ways
- HR Inventory
- Replacement Chart
- Staffing tables/ Manning Chart
HR INVENTORY 2 types
Skills inventory: describes the skills & knowledge of non-managerial
employees & is used primarily for making placement & promotion
decisions
Management inventory: contains the same information as in skills
inventory, but only for managerial employees which describes the work
history, strengths, weaknesses, promotion potential, career goals

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
Replacement Chart that helps us derive the profile of job
holders, department wise and reveals those who could be
used as replacements whenever the need arises.
Manning chart is the pictorial representations of all
organizational jobs, along with the numbers of employees
currently occupying those jobs and future employment
requirements
External Supply (potential employees not current working
for the company, includes University students, people
working for competitors, members of unions or professional
organizations, in a transitional stage, between jobs, or
unemployed)

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
3. Determine Net HR Requirements
HR Demand = external supply + internal supply
HR Demand - internal supply = External Supply
External supply requirements = replacement + change
supply components
Replacement supply= hiring to replace all normal losses
(Normal losses are: retirement, termination, voluntary turnover,
promotions, transfer, and leaves)
Change supply = hiring to increase/decrease the overall
staffing levels.

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)

2010 by Nelson Education Ltd.

18

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)

2010 by Nelson Education Ltd.

19

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
4. Institute HR Programs: HR Deficit and HR
Surplus
HR Deficit = HR demand > HR internal supply
(forecasted HR demand requirements cannot
be fulfilled based on the current organizational
workforce, so policies need to be developed to
focus on external applicants))

Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
HR Surplus = HR demand < HR internal
supply
(there is more than enough internal
supply of workers for the organization's
requirements, so there is no need to
look outside the company.)

HR Forecasting Time
Horizons
Current Forecast
Short-term Forecast
Medium-run Forecast
Long-run Forecast

End of Session

Thank You

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