Mamun Muztaba
AMC, BIM
Objectives of this
Session
After compilation of this session we will know HR Forecasting
Benefits of HR Forecasting
Forecasting Activity Categories
Key Personnel analyses Conducted by HR
Forecasters
Factors Affecting the HR Forecasting Process
Determining Net HR Requirements
HR Forecasting Time Horizons
HR Forecasting
HR Forecasting
............constitutes the heart of the HR
planning process and can be defined as
ascertaining the net requirement for personnel by
determining the demand for and supply of human
resources now and in the future
HR Forecasting
HR Forecasting attempts
to determine the supply
and demand for various
types of human
resources, and to
predict areas within the
organization where
there will be labor
shortages or surpluses.
HR Forecasting
(cont.)
After determining the demand for and supply of
workers, the organizations HR staff develop
specific programs to reconcile the difference
between the requirement for labours in various
employment categories and its availability, both
internally and in organizations environment.
Programs in such areas as Training and
Development, Career Planning, Recruitment and
Selection, Managerial Appraisal, and so on are all
stimulated by means of the HR forecasting process.
Steps to forecasting
Corporate Analysis
Forecast Internal
Supply of Labor
Forecast External
Supply of Labor
Benefits of HR
Forecasting
Reduces HR costs
Increases Organizational Flexibility
Ensures a Close Linkage to the Macro Business
Forecasting Process
Ensures that Organizational Requirements take
Precedence over Issues of Resource Constraint
and Scarcity
Forecasting Activity
Categories
Transaction-based Forecasting
forecasting that focuses on tracking internal change instituted
by the organizations managers.
Event-based Forecasting
forecasting concerned
environment.
with
changes
in
the
external
Process-based Forecasting
forecasting not focused on a specific internal organizational
event but on the flow or sequencing of several work activities
(e.g. Warehousing shipping process)
Determining Net HR
Requirements
1. Determine HR Demand
- In determining demand, a variety of factors have to be
considered. First, each organizational sub-unit has to submit its
net personnel requirements to the corporate forecasting unit,
based on future needs for labour required to meet the agreedon corporate and sub-unit objectives (market share, production
levels, size or expansion, etc.)
- This HR demand figure must incorporate the individuals
needed to maintain or replace the current personnel who retire,
die, are fired or otherwise terminated, or take long leaves
(disability, training course, etc) as well as the replacement for
individuals who are promoted or transferred out of the
department.
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
Send 2 HRD
F1
R
P
g
n
i
k
F2
F3
Supply HR
F4
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
2. Ascertain HR Supply
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
Replacement Chart that helps us derive the profile of job
holders, department wise and reveals those who could be
used as replacements whenever the need arises.
Manning chart is the pictorial representations of all
organizational jobs, along with the numbers of employees
currently occupying those jobs and future employment
requirements
External Supply (potential employees not current working
for the company, includes University students, people
working for competitors, members of unions or professional
organizations, in a transitional stage, between jobs, or
unemployed)
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
3. Determine Net HR Requirements
HR Demand = external supply + internal supply
HR Demand - internal supply = External Supply
External supply requirements = replacement + change
supply components
Replacement supply= hiring to replace all normal losses
(Normal losses are: retirement, termination, voluntary turnover,
promotions, transfer, and leaves)
Change supply = hiring to increase/decrease the overall
staffing levels.
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
18
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
19
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
4. Institute HR Programs: HR Deficit and HR
Surplus
HR Deficit = HR demand > HR internal supply
(forecasted HR demand requirements cannot
be fulfilled based on the current organizational
workforce, so policies need to be developed to
focus on external applicants))
Determining Net HR
Requirements (cont.)
HR Surplus = HR demand < HR internal
supply
(there is more than enough internal
supply of workers for the organization's
requirements, so there is no need to
look outside the company.)
HR Forecasting Time
Horizons
Current Forecast
Short-term Forecast
Medium-run Forecast
Long-run Forecast
End of Session
Thank You