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/2,n

2

2
1
x
2
ˆ
n
S
xx

0

0

/2,n

2

2
1
x
2
ˆ
n
S
xx

/2,n

2

2
 ˆ
/S
 
xx
1

1

/2,n

2

2
 ˆ
/S
xx

|

Y x

0

1

• x 0

|

Y x

0

1

0

x

|

Y x

0

2

xx

1

1

2

xx

|

Y x

• 0

/2,

n

2

1
( x
x
2
ˆ
0
n
S
xx

2

|

Y x

0

|

Y x

0

/2,

n

2

2
1
(
x
x 
)
2
ˆ
0
n
S
xx

# Prediction Intervals

0

## 

2
ˆ
V
Y
 
V
Y
0
2
2
1
(
x
x
)
1
(
x
x
)
2
ˆ
0
2
0
t
1 
Y
y
t
ˆ
1
/ 2,
n 
2
0
0
/ 2,
n
2
n
S
n
S
xx
xx
ˆ
ˆ
with y
x
0
0
1
0
This term accounts for the
inherent variability of the
data itself.

# Confidence/Prediction Intervals

Regression Plot
Y = -5.55762 + 12.6519X
R-Sq = 78.7 %
120
110
100
90
80
70
Regression
60
95% CI
95% PI
50
6
7
8
9
Yds per Att
Rating Pts

0

2
1
(
x
 x
) 
2
ˆ
0
n
S
xx

# Cause and Effect?

 Auto accident Year Sunspots deaths 1970 54.6 165 1971 53.3 89 1972 56.3 55 1973 49.6 34 1974 47.1 9 1975 45.9 30 1976 48.5 59 1977 50.1 83 1978 52.4 109 1979 52.5 127 1980 53.2 153 1981 51.4 112 1982 46 80 1983 44.6 45

# A Plot

### Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals

(response is Rating P)

2
1
0
-1
-2
Normal Score

# Another Plot

### Residuals Versus the Fitted Values

(response is Rating P)

2
1
0
-1
-2
Standardized Residual

2

adj

E

T

1

1