Software Project Planning

 Observations on Estimating
 Estimation of Resources, Cost and Schedules
 Factors affecting estimation
 Project Complexity
 Project Size
 Degree of Structural uncertainty

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Software Project Planning
 Steps to Software Planning
 Define Software Scope
 Determine Resources
 Create Project Estimates
 Make or buy decision

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Scope
 What scope means:
 Functions
 Literally refers to all functions performed by a system
 Performance
 Refers to processing and response time requirements

 Constraints
 Limits placed on the software by external hardware,
available memory or existing systems
 Interfaces
 Reliability

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Scope
 Obtaining the information
 Communication, communication, communication!!!
 Meet with customer as often as needed.
 Have free form discussion
 Try to understand his/her goals/constraints, not just what
she/he thinks they want.
 Government procurement often provides detailed written
specifications on what they want.
 The problem is that those writing them probably didn’t
fully understand, and they will change.
 Government is trying for a more enlightened approach.
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Scope Information
 Some typical questions
 Overall Goals
 Who’s request; What benefit; Who else has solution
 Understanding The Problem
 What output; What Problem; What Issues; What Constraints
 Effectiveness of Meeting
 Are answers official; Are my questions relevant; Other
sources of Info.

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Scoping - Subsequent Meetings
 Begin high level planning
 Know the capabilities of existing software and staff
 Joint teams of customer and developers/analysts
 Checklist of items to cover

 Organization of Information
 Get everything down with diagrams
 Create and save transcripts of Meetings
 Possibly use Web.

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Resources

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Resources
 For each type of resources, 4 characteristics are examined:
 Description of resource
 Availability
 Time resource needed
 Duration of time for which the resource is needed

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Human Resources
 Scope and skills required
 Organizational position and specialty must both be considered
 As estimate of development effort is essential to determine the
number of people required for the project.

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Reusable Software Resources

 Off-the-shelf components
 Existing s/w acquired from 3rd party, fully validated
 Full experience components
 Existing specs, code or test data developed for past projects

 Partial experience components

 New validation will have to be performed
 New Components

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Environmental Resources
 Software Engineering Environment
 Compilers
 Editors
 Design tools
 Configuration management tools
 Management tracking tools
 Problem Reporting And Corrective Action (PRACA) tools
 Documentation tools
 Hardware resources
 Network support

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Software Project Estimation
 Estimation critical -- software costs usually dominate project.
 Categories of estimation techniques
 Delay estimation until late in the project
 Base estimates on similar projects already completed
 Use simple decomposition (possibly in combination with
other methods).
 Use one or more empirical models, i.e.,
d = f(vi) where d – no of estimated values; vi – LOC or FP etc.

 For example,
# of people = LOC ÷(Duration*(LOC/PM))

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Decomposition Techniques
 Software Sizing
 The degree of the size of product estimated
 Ability to translate size estimate into human effort,
calendar time, dollars
 The degree to which project plan reflects abilities of s/w
team
 The stability of product reqs. and the environment that
supports the se effort
 Using Direct approach, size can be measured in LOC
 Using Indirect approach, size is represented as FP

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Software Sizing
 4 approaches to Software Sizing problem
 “Fuzzy Logic” Sizing
 Function Point Sizing
 Standard Component Sizing
 Change Sizing
 These methods can be combined statistically to create a
Three-Point or expected value estimate
 Done by developing Optimistic(low), most likely, and
pessimistic(high) values for size and combining them in
equation

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Problem-Based Estimation
 Projects should be grouped by team size, application area,
complexity, other parameters.
 Local domain averages should be computed.
 When new project is estimated, first allocate it to a domain,
and them determine domain average to generate the estimate
 LOC use decomposition invariably, function wise.
 FP uses info domain characteristics – inputs, outputs, data
files, inquiries, external interfaces – as well as the 14
complexity adjustment values

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Software Project Estimation
 Precise estimation is difficult. So, make three estimates:
optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. Then combine as:
Expected value of size EV=(Sopt + 4Sm + Spess)/6
 An example – CAD application s/w for mechanical unit
 user interface and control facilities
 2-D geometric analysis
3-D opt = 4600 LOC
 3-D geometirc analysis
 database management 3-D m. likely = 6900 LOC
 computer graphics display 3-D pess. = 8600 LOC
 peripheral control => (4600+4*6900+8600)/6
 design analysis models = 6800
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Estimation Table

• Suppose 620 LOC/PM, and $8,000/PM, based upon

historical data. Then,
Est. Cost = 33,200*$8,000/620 = $431,000 & Est. effort = 54
person months
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Function Point Based Estimation
 Function Point Complexity Weighting Factors
 backup and recovery 4
 Data communications 2
 Distributed processing 0
 Performance critical 4
 Existing operating environment 3
 On-line data entry 4
 …
 Application designed for change 5
 Total 52

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Function Point Based Estimation

 Complexity factor = [0.65  0.01  Fi ]

= 0.65+0.01×52 = 1.17
 FP estimate = count-total× [0.65 0.01 Fi ]
= 318 × 1.17 = 372
 Then, if 6.5 FP/PM, cost = 372 × $8,000 ÷ 6.5 = $457,000 and 58 person months

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Process Based Estimation
 Decompose the process into a set of activities or tasks
 Estimate effort or cost to perform each task
 Estimate cost of each function
 May be done using LOC and FP estimation or separately
 If estimated separately, then there are two or three distinct
cost estimates.
 Reconcile differences
 If radically different, perhaps problem is not well
understood, or productivity data is obsolete, or the
models have not been used correctly.

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 Process Based Estimation -- Example
Customer Customer
Activity CommunicationPlanning Risk Analysis Engineering Construction ReleaseEvaluation

Task Analysis Design Code Test

Function

UICF 0.50 2.50 0.40 5.00 n/a

2DGA 0.75 4.00 0.60 2.00 n/a
3DGA 0.50 4.00 1.00 3.00 n/a
DSM 0.50 3.00 1.00 1.50 n/a
CGDF 0.50 3.00 0.75 1.50 n/a
PCF 0.25 2.00 0.50 1.50 n/a
DAM 0.50 2.00 0.50 2.00 n/a

Total 0.25 0.25 0.25 3.50 20.50 4.75 16.50

% effort 1% 1% 1% 8% 45% 10% 36%

• If labor rate is $8,000/PM, then Est. cost = $368,000

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Empirical Estimation Models
 Based on limited number of sample projects
 Typical form E = A + B×(ev)C
 Some examples
 E = 5.2×(KLOC)0.91 Walston-Felix Model
 E = 5.5 + 0.73×(KLOC)1.16 Bailey-Basili Model
 E = 3.2×(KLOC)1.05 Boehm simple model
 E = 5.288×(KLOC)1.047 Doty model for KLOC > 9
 E = -13.39 + 0.0545×FP Albrecht & Gaffney
 E = 60.62 + 7.728×10-8FP3 Kemerer Model
 E = 585.7 + 15.12×FP Albrecht & Gaffney
 Must calibrate for local conditions
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The COCOMO II Model
•Application Composition model
--Used during early stages of design
•Early Design Stage model
--When basic s/w archie. has been established
•Post-Architecture stage model
--During construction of s/w
•3 sizing options – object points, function
points & LOC
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COCOMO II
 Object point is computed using count of 1. Screen 2. Report & 3.
Components required to build the application

Object Type Complexity Weight

Simple Medium Difficult
Screen 1 2 3

Report 2 5 8

3GL comonent 10

 NOP = (object points) * [(100 - %reuse)/100]; NOP -> new object points
 Productivity rate = NOP/person-month
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COCOMO II
Developers Very Low Nominal High Very
experience/capability low High
Environment Very Low Nominal High Very
maturity/capability low High
PROD 4 7 13 25 50

 Estimated effort = NOP/PROD

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“The Software Equation”
 The software equation -- E=[LOC * B0.333/P]3 * (1/t4), where
 E = effort in person months
 t = project duration in months
 B = “special skills factor” For KLOC (5, 15) use 0.16, for
KLOC > 70, use B = 0.39
 P = “productivity parameter” reflecting
 overall process maturity and management practices
 extent to which good software engineering used
 state of software environment
 skill and experience of team
 complexity of application

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Software Equation Example
 Typical productivity values P
 e.g., 2,000 for real-time, 10,000 for tele-comm, 28,000 for
business applications.
 Simplified model suggested for tmin, E:
 tmin = 8.14(LOC/P)0.43 in months for tmin > 6 months
 E = 180Bt3 for E >= 20 person months

 For P = 12,000 (typical scientific computation)

 tmin = 8.14(33,200/12,000)0.43 = 12.6 months
 E = 180(0.28)(1.05)3 = 58 person months

 Study implications of these equations.

 Trying to get done too fast requires much more effort.
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Resources - Make-Buy Decision
 Acquire or develop? Make/buy?
 Acquisition options:
 S/w may be purchased off-the-shelf
 “Full-experience or partial-experience components may be
acquired and then modified an integrated to meet specific
needs
 S/w can be custom built by an outside contractor to meet
purchaser’s specifications.
 For expensive s/w, some guidelines are to be followed:

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Resources - Make-Buy Decision
 Develop specification for desired software
 Estimate cost to develop internally and estimate delivery date
 Select candidate applications that come closest to meeting specifications.

 Select reusable components that could assist constructing the required application

 Develop comparison matrix that compares key functions and costs. Possibly conduct benchmark tests

 Evaluate each s/w package or component based on past product

quality, vendor support,. Product direction, reputation and the like

 Contact other users of the s/w and ask for opinions

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Resources - Make-Buy Decision

 Make/Buy decision is made based on following:

 Will the delivery date of s/w product be sooner than that
for internally developed s/w?
 Will the cost of acquisition plus the cost of customization
be less than the cost of developing the s/w internally
 Will the cost of outside support (e.g. maintenance contract)
be less than the cost of internal support?

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Decision Tree Support
 EC = (path prob)i * (est. path cost)
simple (.30) $380,000
difficult (.70)
Build $450,000
minor changes (.40)
reuse
$275,000
major simple (.20)
changes $310,000
(.60) complex (.80)
System X $490,000
buy
minor changes (.70)
$210,000
Expected cost
major changes (.30) $400,000
= ∑ (path contract
probablity)I x without changes (.60) $350,000

(estimated
with changes (.40) $500,000
path cost)I
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 Make/Buy Decision
1. Build system X from scratch
2. Reuse partial-experience components to construct the system
3. Buy an available s/w product and modify to meet local needs
4. Contract the s/w development to an outside vendor
 The ev for cost computed along any branch is
Expected cost =  (Path probability)i x (estimated path cost) I
where i = decision tree path. For the “build” path
EC(build) = 0.30 ($380K) + 0.70 ($450K) = $429K
EC(reuse) = 0.40 ($275K) + 0.60 (0.20 ($310K) + 0.80 ($490K)
= $382 K

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 Make/Buy Decision
EC(buy) = 0.70 ($210K) + 0.30 ($400K) = $267K
EC(contract) = 0.60 ($350K) + 0.40 ($500K) = $410K

Based on above figures, the lowest expected option is “buy” option.

Availability, experience of developer/vendor/contractor, conformance

to requirements, local “politics” and likelihood of change are also
the criteria that may affect the decision to build, reuse, buy or
contract.

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Summary
 Project planner must estimate three things:
 how long project will take
 how much effort will be required
 how many people will be required
 Must use decomposition and empirical modeling
 Most empirical techniques need to be calibrated to
individual situations.
 Use multiple techniques to gain confidence in result

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