Sweeney
Williams
QUANTITATIVE
METHODS FOR
BUSINESS 8e
Chapter 3, Part I
Discrete Probability Distributions
Random Variables
Discrete Random Variables
Expected Value and Variance
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
Random Variables
.40
.30
.20
.10
0
1
2
3
4
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)
7
f(x)
.40
.25
.20
.05
.10
xf(x)
.00
.25
.40
.15
.40
1.20 = E(x)
_________
___________
_______
_______________
0
1
2
3
4
-1.2
1.44
.40
.576
-0.2
0.04
.25
.010
0.8
0.64
.20
.128
1.8
3.24
.05
.162
2.8
7.84
.10
.784
1.660 =
The variance of daily sales is 1.66 TV sets squared.
The standard deviation of sales is 1.29 TV sets.
10
A
x
0
1
2
3
4
B
f(x)
-1.2
-0.2
0.8
1.8
2.8
C
xf(x)
=A2*B2
=A3*B3
=A4*B4
=A5*B5
=A6*B6
=SUM(C2:C6)
Expected Value
D
(x- ) 2 f(x)
=(A2-C$7)^2*B2
=(A3-C$7)^2*B3
=(A4-C$7)^2*B4
=(A5-C$7)^2*B5
=(A6-C$7)^2*B6
=SUM(D2:D6)
Variance
11
12
13
n!
f ( x)
p x (1 p ) (n x )
x !( n x )!
where
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n
trials
n = the number of trials
p = the probability of success on any one
trial
14
n!
f ( x)
p x (1 p ) ( n x )
x !( n x )!
f (1)
3!
( 0.1)1 ( 0. 9 ) 2
1!( 3 1)!
= (3)(0.1)(0.81)
= .243
15
n
3
.10
.7290
.2430
.0270
.0010
.15
.6141
.3251
.0574
.0034
.20
.5120
.3840
.0960
.0080
.25
.4219
.4219
.1406
.0156
p
.30
.3430
.4410
.1890
.0270
.35
.2746
.4436
.2389
.0429
.40
.2160
.4320
.2880
.0640
.45
.1664
.4084
.3341
.0911
.50
.1250
.3750
.3750
.1250
16
Secon
d
Worke
Leavesr(.1)
Third
Worke
L (.1) r
S (.9)
Leaves (.1)
L (.1)
S (.9)
2
1
L (.1)
S (.9)
Leaves (.1)
Stays (.9)
3
2
Stays (.9)
Stays (.9)
Value
of x
L (.1)
S (.9)
Probab
.
.
001
.
0
009
.0
009
.
0
081
.0
009
.0810
0
.0810
.7290
17
Expected Value
E(x) = = np
Variance
Var(x) = 2 = np(1 - p)
Standard Deviation
SD( x ) np(1 p )
SD( x )
21
x e
f ( x)
x!
where
f(x) = probability of x occurrences in an
interval
= mean number of occurrences in an
interval
e = 2.71828
22
34 ( 2. 71828) 3
Using the Poisson
f ( 4 ) Probability Function
.1680
4!
= 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4
23
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2.2
.1108
.2438
.2681
.1966
.1082
.0476
.0174
.0055
.0015
.0004
.0001
.0000
.0000
2.3
.1003
.2306
.2652
.2033
.1169
.0538
.0206
.0068
.0019
.0005
.0001
.0000
.0000
2.4
2.5
.0907 .0821
.2177 .2052
.2613 .2565
.2090 .2138
.1254 .1336
.0602 ..0668
.0241 .0278
.0083 .0099
.0025 .0031
.0007 .0009
.0002 .0002
.0000 .0000
.0000 .0000
2.6
.0743
.1931
.2510
.2176
.1414
.0735
.0319
.0118
.0038
.0011
.0003
.0001
.0000
2.7
.0672
.1815
.2450
.2205
.1488
.0804
.0362
.0139
.0047
.0014
.0004
.0001
.0000
2.8
.0608
.1703
.2384
.2225
.1557
.0872
.0407
.0163
.0057
.0018
.0005
.0001
.0000
2.9
.0550
.1596
.2314
.2237
.1622
.0940
.0455
.0188
.0068
.0022
.0006
.0002
.0000
3.0
.0498
.1494
.2240
.2240
.1680
.1008
.0504
.0216
.0081
.0027
.0008
.0002
.0001
24
25
26