Decision-Making

The Essence of the Managers Job

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Facilitator: Ms.Hina Riaz

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DECISION MAKING
Decision
Making a choice from
two or more
alternatives

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Decision-Making Process

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Step 1: Identifying the Problem

Problem
A discrepancy between an existing and
desired state of affairs

Characteristics of Problems
A problem becomes a problem when a
manager becomes aware of it
There is pressure to solve the problem
The manager must have the authority,
information, or resources needed to solve
the problem
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Step 2: Identifying Decision

Criteria

Decision criteria are factors that are

important (relevant) to resolving the
problem

Costs that will be incurred (investments

required)
Risks likely to be encountered (chance of
failure)
Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)

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Step 3: Allocating Weights to

the Criteria
Decision criteria are not of
equal importance:
Assigning a weight to each
item places the items in the
correct priority order of their
importance in the decision
making process

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Criteria and Weights for Computer

Replacement Decision

Criterion
Memory and Storage

Weight
10

Battery life

Carrying Weight

Warranty

Display Quality

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Step 4: Developing Alternatives

Identifying viable alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without
evaluation) that can resolve the problem

Step 5: Analyzing
Alternatives
Appraising
each alternatives strengths
and weaknesses

An alternatives appraisal is based on its

ability to resolve the issues identified in steps
2 and 3
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Step 6: Selecting an
Alternative
Choosing the best alternative
The alternative with the highest total
weight is chosen

Step 7: Implementing the

Alternative

Putting the chosen alternative into action.

Conveying the decision to and gaining
commitment from those who will carry out the
decision

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Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria

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Step 8: Evaluating the Decisions

Effectiveness
The soundness of the decision is
judged by its outcomes
How effectively was the problem
resolved by outcomes resulting
from the chosen alternatives?
If the problem was not resolved,
what went wrong?

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Decisions in the Management

Functions

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Decision Making Approach

Rationality
Managers make consistent, valuemaximizing choices with specified
constraints
Assumptions are that decision makers:
Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical
Problem faced would be clear and unambiguous
Identify all viable alternatives and consequences
Have a clear and specific goal
Will select the alternative that maximizes
outcomes in the organizations interests rather
than in their personal interests
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Decision Making Approach

Bounded Rationality
Managers make decisions rationally, but are
limited (bounded) by their ability to process
information
Assumptions are that decision makers:
Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives
Will satisficechoose the first alternative encountered
that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than
maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all
alternatives and choosing the best

Influence on decision making

Escalation of commitment: an increased
commitment to a previous decision despite
evidence that it may have been wrong
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Decision Making Approach

Role of Intuition
Intuitive Decision Making
Making decisions on the basis of
experience,
feelings,
and
accumulated judgment

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What is Intuition?

Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, Taking the Mystery Out of

Intuitive Decision Making, Academy of Management Executive, October
1999, pp. 9199.

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Types of Problems & Decisions

Structured Problems
Decision makers goals is clear
Problem is familiar (have occurred before)
Information about the problem is easily defined,
available and complete. E.g.
Customer returns a purchase to a store
When a supplier is late with an important delivery
A news teams response to a fast-breaking event
Servers spills a drink on customers coat

Programmed Decision
A repetitive decision that can be handled by a
routine approach
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Types of Programmed Decisions

Procedure
A series of sequential steps a manager uses to
respond to a structured problem (e.g. Follow all
steps for completing merchandise return
documentation)

Rule
An explicit statement that tells a manager or
employee what can or cannot be done (e.g.
Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00, No
credit purchases are refunded for cash)

Policy
A general guideline for making a decision about a
structured problem. Common Policy
statements...Customer always comes first and
should always be satisfied, employees wages shall
be competitive with in community standards (e.g.
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Accept all customer-returned merchandise)

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Types of Problems & Decisions

Unstructured Problems
Problems that are new or unusual and for
which information is ambiguous or incomplete
Problems that will require custom-made
solutions (e.g. whether to build a new
manufacturing unit at a new place, how to
modify restaurant business with the new
smoking ban)

Non-programmed Decisions
Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring
Decisions that generate unique responses
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Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions

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Decision-Making Conditions
Certainty
A situation in which a manager can
make an accurate decision because
the outcome of every alternative
choice is known

Risk
A situation in which the manager is
able to estimate the likelihood
(probability) of outcomes that
result from the choice of particular
alternatives

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Decision-Making Conditions
Uncertainty
Limited information prevents
estimation of outcome probabilities
for alternatives associated with the
problem and may force managers to
rely on intuition, hunches, and gut
feelings

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Decision-Making Styles
Thinking style reflects two things
1. The source of information you tend
to use (external data and facts or
internal sources such as feelings and
intuitions)
2. How you process that information
(Linearrational, logical analytical or
Nonlinear-Intuitive,
creative,
insightful)
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Decision-Making Styles
Linear Thinking Style---persons
preference for using external data and facts
and processing this information through
rational & logical thinking to guide decisions
& actions
Nonlinear Thinking Style---persons
preference for using internal sources of
information (feeling & insights) and
processing this information with internal
insights, feelings and hunches to guide
decisions and actions

Common Decision-Making Errors &

Biases

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Decision-Making Errors & Biases

Heuristics
Using rules of thumb to simplify decision
making

Overconfidence Bias
Holding unrealistically positive views of
ones self and ones performance

Immediate Gratification Bias

Choosing alternatives that offer immediate
rewards and that to avoid immediate costs
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Decision-Making Errors & Biases

Anchoring Effect
Fixating on initial information and ignoring
subsequent information

Selective Perception Bias

Selecting organizing and interpreting
events based on the decision makers
biased perceptions

Confirmation Bias
Seeking out information that reaffirms past
choices and discounting contradictory
information
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Decision-Making Errors & Biases

Framing Bias
Selecting and highlighting certain aspects
of a situation while ignoring other aspects

Availability Bias
Losing decision-making objectivity by
focusing on the most recent events

Representation Bias
Drawing analogies and seeing identical
situations when none exist

Randomness Bias
Creating unfounded meaning out of random
events
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Decision-Making Errors & Biases

Sunk Costs Errors
Forgetting that current actions cannot
influence past events and relate only to future
consequences

Self-Serving Bias
Taking quick credit for successes and blaming
outside factors for failures

Hindsight Bias
Mistakenly believing that an event could have
been predicted once the actual outcome is
known (after-the-fact)
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Overview of Managerial Decision Making

Decision Making Styles

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Linear Thinking Style

Non Linear Thinking Style

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Thank You!!!

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