Anda di halaman 1dari 37

Centre for Management of

Technology and
Entrepreneurship
University of Toronto

Cash Flow Analysis Part A

Copyright: Joseph C. Paradi


1996-2004
Centre for Management of Technology and
Entrepreneurship

Course: CHE349
File: CHE349/CashFlowA4

Categories of Cash Flows


First cost - expense to build or to buy and install
Operations and maintenance (O&M) - annual
expense, can include ; electricity, labour, repairs, etc.
Salvage value(s) - receipt at project termination for
disposal of the equipment (can be a salvage cost)
Revenues - annual receipts due to sale of products or
services
Overhauls - major capital expenditure that occurs part
way through the life of the asset
Prepaid expenses - annual expenses, such as leases
and insurance payments, that must be paid in advance
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

Economic Equivalence
How do we measure and compare economic worth of
various cash flow profiles? We need to know:
Magnitude of cash flows
Their direction (receipt or disbursement)
Timing (when does transaction occur)
Applicable interest rate(s) during time period under consideration

We should be economically indifferent to choosing


between two alternatives that are economically
equivalent and could therefore be traded for one another
in the financial marketplace.
Any cash flow can be converted to an equivalent cash
flow at any point in time.
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

An Example of Equivalence
Suppose you are offered the alternative of receiving
either $3,000 at the end of 5 yrs (guaranteed) or P
dollars today. You would deposit the P dollars into an
account that pays 8% interest. What value of P would
make you indifferent to your choice between P dollars
today and the $3,000 at the end of 5 yrs?
Determine the present amount that is economically
equivalent to $3,000 in 5 yrs given the investment
potential of 8% per year.
F = $3,000, N = 5 years, i = 8% per year
Find P
P = F/(1+i)N = $2,042
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

Economic Equivalence:
General Principles
Equivalence calculations to compare alternatives
require a common time basis
Equivalence depends on the interest rate
May require conversion of multiple payment cash flow
to a single cash flow
Equivalence is maintained regardless of the individual's
point of view (borrower or lender)

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

Equivalence - A Factor
Approach
Now we can look at organizing the approach to
Engineering Economy by defining its language and
notations.
Engineering Economy Factors apply compound interest
to calculate equivalent cash flow values. The tabulated
values at the end of the book (or you can use the
functions in spreadsheets) convert from one cash flow
quantity (P, F, A, or G) to another.
Assumptions:
1. Interest is compounded once per period
2. Cash flow occurs at the end of the period
3. Time 0 is period 0 or the start of period 1
4. All periods are the same length
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

Definitions
The following are the definitions for the variables used:
i interest rate per period, expressed as a decimal
N Number of periods (also called the study horizon)
P Present cash flow, or value equivalent to a cash flow
series
F Future cash flow at the end of period N, or future worth
at the end of period N equivalent to a cash flow series
A Uniform periodic cash flow (annuity) at the end of every
period from 1 to N. Also a uniform constant amount
equivalent to a cash flow series.
G Gradient or constant period-by-period change in cash
flows from period 1 to N (arithmetic series)
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

Factor Notation
These have their roots in the pre-computer age when
prepared tables were used by engineers for many
design needs. However, they still serve to state the
problem and can be used to solve it too.
The format of engineering economy factors is:
(X/Y, i%, N) where X and Y are chosen from the cash
flow symbols P,F,A and G.
So, if you have Y multiplied by a factor, you get the
equivalent value of X: P = A(P/A, i ,N) e.g. convert from
a cash flow (F) in year 10 to an equivalent present
value (P), the factor is:
(P/F, i N) - see text pages after 559 for the tables
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

Names of the EE Factors see pp 83 in text


So now we know how all this works together, but these factors
have names as follows:
(P/F,i,N) Present worth factor
(F/P,i,N) Compound amount factor
(P/A,i,N) Series present worth factor
(A/P,i,N) Capital recovery factor, how much an investment has to
return to recover its cost - no salvage value
(A/F,i,N) Sinking fund factor - where a savings account is used to
accumulate funds for future investment
(F/A,i,N) Series compound amount factor
Note that the first letter is the variable you are seeking and the
second the one you have P/A want First Cost (investment), have
annuity payment

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

Compound Interest Factors


for Discrete Compounding
The four discrete cash flow patterns are:
a single disbursement or receipt
a set of equal amounts in/out over a sequence of periods annuity
a set of equal amounts in/out that change by a constant
amount from one period to the next in a sequence of periods arithmetic gradient series
a set of equal amounts in/out that change by a constant
proportion from one period to the next in a sequence of periods
- geometric gradient series

The following assumptions apply:


compounding periods are equal
cash flows at the end of the period (consider payment at 0 to
be at period -1
annuities and gradients occur at period ends
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

10

The Basic Single Payment


Factors
P and F are the basic single payment quantities and
they are related as follows:
F = P(1 + i)N can be developed as:
Fn= P(1+ in) - where: i is the annual interest rate simple interest - but this is not very useful, so we
develop the compound interest model:
Fn = Fn-1 (1+ i)
So we can see this in the EE notation as:
(F/P,i,N) = (1 + i)N and for the reverse
(P/F,i,N) = (1 + i)-N
The limits of P/F and F/P factors are:
1 when i and N approach 0
P/F approaches 0; F/P infinity when i and N approach infinity.
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

11

The Relationship between P


and F
F If you had $2,000
F occurs N periods after P
1

N-1

now and invested


it at 10%, how
much would it be
worth in 8 years?

P
P = $2,000, i = 10% per year, N = 8 years
F = P(1+i)N =$2,000(1+0.10)8= $4,287.18
F = P (F/P,10%, 8)=$2,000*2.1436 =$4,287.20

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

12

Another P and F Example


F
F occurs N periods after P
1

N-1

P
If $1,000 is to be received in 5 years. At an annual
interest rate of 12%, what is the P of this amount?
F=$1000, i = 12%, N = 5 years
P = F/(1+i)N= $1000/(1+.12)5 = $567.40
P = F(P/F, 12%,5) = $1000(0.5674) = $567.40
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

13

Discrete Compounding,
Discrete Cash Flows P. 571

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

14

Combining Factors
We can combine these factors in various ways to create
a model for the real problem at hand:
delayed income stream because of startup time
another need may be prepaid expenses - also a way to deal
with startup delays or construction delays.

We can link formulas together to model the actual


proposition - in fact deriving one formulas factor from
an others
Also, many times the problem has to be defined in
more than one part
Then, there are many approaches to a specific problem
- one may be longer but the answer must be the same
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

15

A Simple Example
We invest $120,000 [P=-120,000]
We pay for 5 years $30,000/year [P=30,000(P/A,12%,5)]
Then pay $35,000 at year 3 [P=-35,000(P/F,12%,3)]
Receive $40,000 at year 4 [P=40,000(P/F,12%,4)]

$40,000

$30,000

$30,000
$35,000

$120,000
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

16

Compound Interest Factors


for Annuities: Uniform Series
All cash flows in series are equal (annuity)

N-2 N-1

Note: P occurs 1 period


Before 1st A, F would occur
At same time as last A.

P = A(1 + i)-1 + A(1 + i)-2 + . + A(1 + i)-(N-1) + A(1 + i)-N


=

K1

A(1 + i)-K

(1 i) N 1
P = A
n
i(1 i)
Series Present Worth Factor
Centre for Management of Technology and

P = A(P/A i, N)

p.62 Text
Course:

17

Compound Interest Factors


for Annuities: Uniform Series
From before, P = A [(1+i)N-1]/[i(1+i)N]
Then to get (F/A, i, N) we can convert this to a future
single payment by multiplying both sides by (1+i)N
(1+i)N * P = A[(1+i)N-1]/i resulting in
F = A[(1+i)N-1]/i

p.60 text

Thus, we get the (P/A,i,N) and the (F/A,i,N) factors

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

18

Bonds
Financial instrument used by large firms and
government to raise funds to finance projects, debt
obligations,
A special form of loan, usually with a long term
The creditor (firm or government) promises to pay a
stated amount of interest at specified intervals for a
defined period and then to repay the principal at a
specific date (maturity date)
Canada savings bonds usually represent the lowest
interest because they are the safest (set tone for
interest rates), then are provincial bonds, next are
Blue-Chip corporates (banks, large firms)
Junk bonds are very high interest and risk
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

19

Bond Terminology
P = Purchase price of a bond
F = Sales price (or redemption value) of a bond
V = Par (face) value the stated value on the bond
r = annual interest shown (or coupon rate)
n = compounding period (quarterly, six months, etc.)
i = the yield rate per annum (usually the market rate)
N = number of remaining years to maturity
Redemption when the issuer pays for it in cash
Maturity Date date on which the par value is to be
repaid (date bond expires)
Market Value the price one has to pay to buy a bond
A = V(r/n) = the value of a single interest payment (a
coupon)
P = V(r/n) (P/A, i/n, nN) + F (P/F, i, N)
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

20

Bond Valuation
Yield to maturity (return on investment) = actual
interest earned from a bond over the holding period
(equivalent to IRR calculations)
When considering buying or selling bonds, the yield is
the fundamental consideration and this depends on a
number of issues:

Current yields for that type of security (economy dependent)


Inflation rate (usually included in the yield by market forces)
Your tax position
Foreign exchange risk if you invest in other currencies

The actual price of a bond, even at issue, is very


unlikely to the face value, except at redemption.
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

21

Canadian Bonds

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

22

The Yield Curve

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

23

Example of Arithmetic
Gradients
We have two propositions for investment:
New Multi Processor Computer
Natural Gas Pipeline

Cash Flow Profiles


End of Year
Computer
0
-$50,000
1
+$20,000
2
+$15,000
3
+$10,000
4
+$5,000

Natural Gas
-$50,000
+$5,000
+$10,000
+$15,000
+$20,000

Which is preferable, the computer or natural gas? Both


have revenues of $37,000 over the time period.
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

24

CF Diagrams for Computer &


Natural Gas Options
$20,000
$15,000
(+)
$10,000

(+)

$5,000
0
(-)

Computer
Option

$50,000

$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000

0
(-)

Natural Gas
Option

$50,000

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

25

Arithmetic Gradients
An easy definition of an arithmetic gradient is: revenue
grows by $10,000 (G) each year.
(N-1)G
But the rate is not always constant
3G

2G

Note: No cash flow at end of period 1


Each successive cash flow increases
by a fixed amount equal to G
0

There are four possibilities besides G=0


1. A>0 and G>0 - means positive and increasing
2. A>0 and G<0 - means positive but decreasing
3. A<0 and G>0 - means negative but becoming less so
4. A<0 and G<0 - means negative and becoming more so
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

26

Arithmetic Gradients
cont'd...
A series of receipts or disbursements that start at 0 at
the end of the 1st period and then increase by a
constant amount from period to period.
e.g. increasing operating costs for an aging machine

The sum of an annuity plus an arithmetic gradient


series is a common pattern.
The gradient formulas can be derived just as the
annuity formulas were. See Text pages 68-70.
To convert gradient to uniform series:
A = G (A/G, i, N)
Then can convert A to P or F
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

27

Arithmetic Gradient with


A>0
A+(N-1)G
A+3G
A+2G
A+G
A

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

28

Geometric Gradient Series


Very useful to model inflation, change in productivity,
shrinkage of market size
Each successive cash flow increases (or decreases) by
a constant % each period.
The base value of the series is A. The growth rate
(rate of increase or decrease) is referred to as g.
If g is positive, the terms are increasing in value.
If g is negative, terms are decreasing in value.
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

29

Arithmetic Gradient with


A>0 and G>0 = Geometric

See Factor development in the text on pp 71.


Series
Note: There is a cash flow
at end of period 1

A(1+g)

A(1+g)N-1

A(1+g)3
A(1+g)2

Centre for Management of Technology and

N-1

N-2

Course:

30

Geometric Gradients
We can define a growth adjusted interest rate i0:

i0

1 i
1
1 g

So that

There are 4 cases

1
1 g

0
1 i
1 i

i>g>0
g>i>0
g=i>0

Growth is + but less than interest rate i0 is +


Growth is + and greater than interest rate i0 is
Growth is + and = to interest rate
A
i0 0 P N

1 g

g<0

Growth is negative (series is decreasing i0 is +

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

31

Geometric Gradients
Formulas
(P / A, i, N)
(P / A, g, i, N)
or
(1 g)
(1 i) N 1 1

(P / A, g, i, N)
N
i(1 i) 1 g

Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

32

Deferred Annuity
If the cash flow does not begin until some later date,
the annuity is known as deferred annuity.
Annuity is deferred for J periods.
P0 = A (P/A, i%, N-J) ( P/F, i%, J)
A

0 1

J+2
J+1
J+3

N-1

P=?
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

33

Non-standard Annuities and


Gradients
Treat each cash flow individually
Convert the non-standard annuity or gradient to
standard form by changing the compounding period
Convert the non-standard annuity to standard by
finding an equal standard annuity for the compounding
period
How much is accumulated over 20 years in a fund that
pays 4% interest, compounded yearly, if $1,000 isF = ?
deposited at the end of every
$1000fourth year?

Centre for Management of Technology and

12

16

20

Course:

34

Different Solutions
Method 1: consider each cash flows separately
F = 1000 (F/P,4%,16) + 1000 (F/P,4%,12) + 1000
(F/P,4%,8) + 1000 (F/P,4%,4) + 1000 = $7013
Method 2: convert the compounding period from annual
to every four years
ie = (1+0.04)4-1 = 16.99%
F = 1000 (F/A, 16.99%, 5) = $7013
Method 3: convert the annuity to an equivalent yearly
annuity
A = 1000(A/F,4%,4) = $235.49
F = 235.49 (F/A,4%,20) = $7012
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

35

PW Computations when N

These cases are also called "perpetuities" - e.g.


scholarships, endowments, etc.
There are many engineering projects where the life of
the project is so long as to be considered forever.
Usually 50 years as a rule of thumb, but assume cash
flows continue indefinitely.
There are other projects where a sum of money is
provided at the beginning of the project and it is then
invested to yield the amount used for the project
(annuities for 50 years)
For both, the PW of the infinitely long uniform series of
cash flows becomes the Capitalized Value
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

36

PW when N
Until now, we assumed that the horizon N is a fixed
number of years.
The present worth of a very long and uniform series of
cash flows is calculated as:
P lim A(P / A,i ,N )

N
(1 i )N 1

P A lim
N
N
i
(1

i
)

1
1

(1 i )N
P A lim

N
i

A
P
i
Centre for Management of Technology and

Course:

37