Anda di halaman 1dari 44

Least Squares Regression and

Multiple Regression

Regression: A Simplified Example


X
Y
(predictor) (criterion)

14

18

10

22

14

26

Lets find the best-fitting equation for predicting


new, as yet unknown scores on Y from scores
on X. The regression equation takes the form Y
= a + bX + e where Y is the dependent or
criterion variable were trying to predict, a is the
intercept or point where the regression line
crosses the Y axis, X is the independent or
predictor variable, b is the weight by which we
multiply the value of X (it is the slope of the
regression line, and is how many units Y
increases (decreases) for every unit change in
X), and e is an error term (basically an estimate
of how much our prediction is off). a and b
are often called regression coefficients. When
Y is an estimated value it is usually symbolized
as Y

Finding the Regression Line with


SPSS
First lets use a scatterplot to
visualize the relationship
between X and Y. The first
thing we notice is that the
points appear to form a
straight line and that that as
X gets larger, Y gets larger,
so it would appear that we
have a strong, positive
relationship between X and Y.
Based on the way the points
seem to fall, what do you
think the value of Y would be
for a person who obtained a
score of 7 on X?

30

20

10

0
0

Fitting a Line to the Scatterplot


Next lets fit a line to the
scatterplot. Note that the
points appear to be fit well
by the straight line, and
that the line crosses the Y
axis (at the point called the
intercept, or the constant a
in our regression equation)
at about the point y = 2.
So its a good guess that
our regression equation will
be something like y = 2 +
some positive multiple of X,
since the values of Y look to
be about 4-5 times the size
of X

30

20

10

0
0

The Least Squares Solution to


Finding the Regression Equation

Mathematically, the regression equation is that combination of


constant and weights b on the predictors (the Xs) which
minimizes the sum, across all subjects, of the squared
differences between their predicted scores (e.g. the scores
they would get if the regression equation were doing the
predicting) and the obtained scores (their actual scores) on
the criterion Y (that is, it minimizes the error sum of squares
or residuals). This is known as the least squares solution
The correlation between the obtained scores on the criterion
or dependent variable, Y, and the scores predicted by the
regression equation is expressed in the correlation coefficient,
r, or in the case of more than one independent variable, R.*
Alternatively it expresses the correlation between Y and the
weighted combination of predictors. R ranges from zero to 1
*SPSS uses R in the regression output even if there is only
one predictor

Using SPSS to Calculate the


Regression Equation

Download the Data File


simpleregressionexample
.sav and open it in SPSS
In Data Editor, we will go
to Analyze/ Regression /
Linear and move X into
the Independent box (in
regression the
Independent variables are
the predictor variables)
and move Y into the
dependent box and click
OK. The dependent
variable, Y, is the one for
which we are trying to
find an equation that will
predict new cases of Y
given than we know X

Obtaining the Regression Equation


from the SPSS Output
This table gives us the
regression coefficients. Look in
the column called
unstandardized coefficients.
There are two values of
provided. The first one, labeled
the constant, is the intercept a,
or the point at which the
regression line crosses the y
axis. The second one, X, is the
unstandardized regression
weight or the b from our
regression equation. So this
output tells us that the bestfitting equation for
predicting Y from X is Y = 2
+ (4)X. Lets check that out
with a known value of X and Y.
According to the equation, if X is
3, Y should be 2 + 4(3), or 14.
How about when X = 5?

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
X

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
2.000
.000
4.000
.000

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
1.000

Sig.
.
.

.
.

a. Dependent Variable: Y

14

18

10

22

14

26

The constant
representing the
intercept is the value
that the dependent
variable would take
when all the predictors
are at a value of zero.
In some treatments
this is called B0 instead
of a

What is the Regression Equation when


the Scores are in Standard (Z) Units?

When the scores on X and Y have been converted to Z


scores, then the intercept disappears (because the two
sets of scores are expressed on the same scale) and the
equation for predicting Y from X just becomes Y = BetaX,
where Beta is the standardized coefficient reported in
your SPSS regression procedure output
Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
X

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
2.000
.000
4.000
.000

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
1.000

Sig.
.
.

.
.

a. Dependent Variable: Y

In the bivariate case, where there is only one X and one Y, the
standardized beta weight will equal the correlation coefficient.
Lets confirm this by seeing what would happen if we convert
our raw scores to Z scores

Regression Equation for Z scores

In SPSS I have converted X and Y to two new variables, ZX and ZY, expressed in
standard score units. You achieve this by going to Analyze/ Descriptive/ Descriptives
(dont do this now), moving the variables you want to convert into the variables box,
and selecting save standardized values as variables. This creates the new variables
expressed as Z scores. Note that if you reran the linear regression analysis that we
just did on the raw scores, that in the output for the regression equation for
predicting the standard scores on Y the constant has dropped out and the equation
is now of the form y = Beta x, where Beta is equal to 1. In this case the z scores
are identical on X and Y although they certainly wouldnt always be

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Zscore(X)

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
.000
.000
1.000
.000

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta

a. Dependent Variable: Zscore(Y)


Correlations
Zscore(Y)

Zscore(X)

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Zscore(Y)
Zscore(X)
1
1.000**
.
.
7
7
1.000**
1
.
.
7
7

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

1.000

Sig.
.
.

.
.

Meaning of Regression Weights

The regression weights or regression coefficients (the


raw score s and the standardized Betas) can be
interpreted as expressing this unique contribution of a
variable: you can say they represent the amount of
change in Y that you can expect to occur per unit change
in Xi , where X is the ith variable in the predictive
equation, when statistical control has been achieved for
all of the other variables in the equation
Lets consider an example from the raw-score regression
equation Y = 2 + (b)X, where the weight b is 4: Y = 2 +
(4) X. In predicting Y, what the weight b means is that
for every unit change in X, Y will be increased fourfold.
Consider the data from this table and verify that this is
the case. For example, if X = 1, Y = 6. Now make a
unit change of 1 in X, so that X is 2, and Y becomes
equal to 10. Make a further unit change of 2 units to 3,
and Y becomes equal to 14. Make a further unit change
of 3 units to 4, and Y becomes equal to 18. So each unit
change in X increases Y fourfold (the value of the b
weight). If the b weight were negative (e.g. y = 2 bx)
the value of y would decrease fourfold for every unit
increase in X

14

18

10

22

14

26

Finding the Regression Equation for


Some Real-World Data

Download the World95.sav data file and open it in SPSS


Data Editor. We are going to find the regression equation
for predicting the raw (unstandardized) scores on the
dependent variable, Average Female Life Expectancy (Y)
from Daily Calorie Intake (X). Another way to say this is
that we are trying to find the regression of Y on X.
Go to Graphs/Chart Builder/OK
Under Choose From select ScatterDot (top leftmost icon)
and double click to move it into the preview window
Drag Daily Calorie Intake onto the X axis box
Drag Average Female Life Expectancy onto the Y axis box
and click OK

In the Output viewer, double click on the chart to bring


up the Chart Editor; go to Elements and select Fit Line
at Total, then select linear and click Close

Scatterplot of Relationship between Female


Life Expectancy and Daily Caloric Intake
From the scatterplot it would
appear that there is a strong
positive correlation between X
and Y (as daily caloric intake
increases, life expectancy
increases),
and X can be
expected to be a good predictor
of as-yet unknown cases of Y.
(Note, however, that there is a
lot of scatter about the line and
we may need additional
predictors to soak up some of
the variance left over after this
particular X has done its work
(also consider loess regression
In the loess method, weighted least squares is used to
fit linear or quadratic functions of the predictors at the
centers of neighborhoods. The radius of each neighborhood
is chosen so that the neighborhood contains
a specified percentage of the data points)

Finding the Regression Equation

Go to Analyze/ Regression/ Linear


Move the Average Female Life Expectancy
variable into the dependent box and the Daily
Calorie Intake variable into the independent box
Under Options, make sure include constant in
equation is checked and click Continue
Under Statistics, Check Estimates, Confidence
intervals, and Model Fit. Click Continue and
then OK
Compare your output to the next slide

Interpreting the SPSS Regression


Output

From your output you can obtain the regression equation for predicting
Average Female Life Expectancy from Daily Calorie Intake. The equation is Y
= 25.904 + .016X + e, where e is the error term. Thus for a country where
the average daily calorie intake is 3000 calories, the average female life
expectancy is about 25.904 + (.016)(3000) or 73.904 years. This is a raw
score regression equation

Significance
of constant
of little use.
Just says
that it
differs
significantly
from zero
(e.g when x
is zero, y is
not zero)

This is a standardized partial


regression coefficient or beta weight

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Daily calorie intake

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
25.904
4.175
.016
.001

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.775

t
6.204
10.491

Sig.
.000
.000

95% Confidence Interval for B


Lower Bound
Upper Bound
17.583
34.225
.013
.019

a. Dependent Variable: Average female life expectancy

These weights are called


unstandardized partial regression
coefficients or weights

If the data were expressed in standard


scores, the equation would be ZY = .
775ZX + e, and .775 is also the
correlation between X and Y. This is a
standard score regression equation

More Information from the SPSS


Regression Output
There are some other questions we could ask about this regression

(1) Is the regression equation a significant predictor of Y? (That is, is it


good enough to reject the null hypothesis, which is more or less that the
mean of Y is the best predictor of any given obtained Y). To find this out
we consult the ANOVA output which is provided and look for a significant
value of F. In this case the regression equation is significant
(2) How much of the variation in Y can be explained by the regression
equation? To find this out we look for the value of R square, which is .601
ANOVAb

Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
5792.910
3842.477
9635.387

df
1
73
74

Mean Square
5792.910
52.637

F
110.055

a. Predictors: (Constant), Daily calorie intake


b. Dependent Variable: Average female life expectancy

Residual SS is the sum of squared deviations of


the known values of Y and the predicted values
of Y based on the equation

Sig.
.000a

Model Summary
Model
1

R
.775a

R Square
.601

Adjusted
R Square
.596

Std. Error of
the Estimate
7.255

a. Predictors: (Constant), Daily calorie intake

Regression SS is the sum of the squared deviations of the


predicted variable about its mean

How Much Error do We Have?

Just how good a job will our regression equation do in


predicting new cases of Y? As it happens the greater
the departure of the obtained Y scores from the
location that the regression equation predicted they
should be, the larger the error
If you created a distribution of all the errors of
prediction (what are called the residuals or the
differences between observed and predicted score for
each case), the standard deviation of this distribution
would be the standard error of estimate
The standard error of estimate can be used to put
confidence intervals or prediction intervals around
predicted scores to indicate the interval within which
they might fall, with a certain level of confidence such
as .05

Confidence Intervals in Regression

Look at the columns headed 95% confidence intervals. These columns put
confidence intervals based on the standard error of estimate around the regression
coefficients a and b. Thus for example in the table below we can say with 95%
confidence that the value of the constant a lies somewhere between 17.583 and
34.225, and the value of the regression coefficient b (unstandardized) lies
somewhere between .013 and .019)
Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Daily calorie intake

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
25.904
4.175
.016
.001

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.775

t
6.204
10.491

Sig.
.000
.000

95% Confidence Interval for B


Lower Bound
Upper Bound
17.583
34.225
.013
.019

a. Dependent Variable: Average female life expectancy

Looking at the standard error of the


standardized coefficient we can see that the
estimate R (which is also the standardized
version of b) is 775. Thus we could say
with 95% confidence that if ZX is the Z
score corresponding to a particular calorie
level, life expectancy is .775 (Zx) plus or
minus 7.255 years

Model Summary
Model
1

R
.775a

R Square
.601

Adjusted
R Square
.596

Std. Error of
the Estimate
7.255

a. Predictors: (Constant), Daily calorie intake

SEE = SD of X multiplied by the


square root of the coeffiecient of
nondetermination. Says what an
error standard score of 1 is equal to
in terms of Y units

Multivariate Analysis

Multivariate analysis is a term applied to a related set of statistical


techniques which seek to assess and in some cases summarize or
make more parsimonious the relationships among a set of
independent variables and a set of dependent variables
Multivariate analyses seeks to answer questions such as

Is there a linear combination of personal and intellectual traits that will


maximally discriminate between people who will successfully complete
freshman year of college and people who drop out? What linear
combination of characteristics of the tax return and the taxpayer best
distinguish between those whom it would and would not be worthwhile to
audit? (Discriminant Analysis)
What are the underlying factors of an 94-item statistics test, and how can
a more parsimonious measure of statistical knowledge be achieved?
(Factor Analysis)
What are the effects of gender, ethnicity, and language spoken in the
home and their interaction on a set of ten socio-economic status
indicators? Even if none of these is significant by itself, will their linear
combination yield significant effects? (MANOVA, Multiple Regression)

More Examples of Multivariate


Analysis Questions

What are the underlying dimensions of judgment in a


set of similarity and/or preference ratings of political
candidates? (Multidimensional Scaling)
What is the incremental contribution of each of ten
predictors of marital happiness? Should all of the
variables be kept in the prediction equation? What is the
maximum accuracy of prediction that can be achieved?
(Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis)
How do a set of univariate measures of nonverbal
behavior combine to predict ratings of communicator
attractiveness? (Multiple regression)
What is the correlation between a set of measures
assessing the attractiveness of a communicator and a
second set of measures assessing the communicators
verbal skills? (Canonical Correlation)

An Example (sort of) of Multivariate


Analysis: Multiple Regression

A good place to start in learning about multivariate analysis is


with multiple regression. Perhaps it is not strictly speaking a
multivariate procedure since although there are multiple
independent variables there is only one dependent variable

Canonical correlation is perhaps a more classic multivariate


procedure with multiple dependent and independent variables

Multiple regression is a relative of simple bivariate or zeroorder correlation (two interval-level variables)
In multiple regression, the investigator is concerned with
predicting a dependent or criterion variable from two or more
independent variables. The regression equation (raw score
version) takes the form Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 +
..bnXn + e

One motivation for doing this is to be able to predict the scores


on cases for which measurements have not yet been obtained or
might be difficult to obtain . The regression equation can be used
to classify, rate, or rank new cases

Coding Categorical Variables in


Regression

In multiple regression, both the


independent or predictor variables and the
dependent or criterion variables are usually
continuous (interval or ratio-level
measurement) although sometimes there
will be concocted or dummy independent
variables which are categorical (e.g., men
and women are assigned scores of one or
two on a dummy gender variable; or, for
more categories, K-1 dummy variables are
used where 1 equals has the property and
0 equals doesnt have the property
Consider the race variable from one of our
data sets which has three categories:
White, African-American, and Other. To
code this variable for multiple regression,
you create two dummy variables, White
and African-American. Each subject will
get a score of either 1 or 0 on each of the
two variables

Caucasian

AfricanAmerican

Subject 1
Caucas.

Subject 2
AfricanAmerican

Subject 3
Other

Coding Categorical Variables in


Regression, contd
You can use this same type of
procedure to code assignments to
levels of a treatment in an
experiment, and thus you can use a
factor from an experiment, such
as interviewer status, as a predictor
variable in a regression. For
example if you had an experiment
with three levels of interviewer
attire, you would create one dummy
variable for the high status attire
condition and one for the medium
status attire and the people in the
low status attire condition would get
0,0 on both variables, where high
status condition subjects would get
1,0 and medium status condition
subjects would get 0, 1 scores on
the two variables, respectively

High Status

Medium Status

Subject 1
High
Status
Attire
Condition

Subject 2
Medium
Status
Attire
Condition

Subject 3
Low
Status
Attire
Condition

Regression and Prediction

Most regression analyses look for a linear relationship


between predictors and criterion although nonlinear trends
can be explored through regression procedures as well
In multiple regression we attempt to derive an equation
which is the weighted sum of two or more variables. The
equation tells you how much weight to place on each of the
variables to arrive at the optimal predictive combination
The equation that is arrived at is the best combination of
predictors for the sample from which it was derived. But
how well will it predict new cases?

Sometimes the regression equation is tested against a new


sample of cases to see how well it holds up. The first sample
is used for the derivation study (to derive the equation) and a
second sample is used for cross-validation. If the second
sample was part of the original sample reserved for just this
cross-validation purpose, then it is called a hold-out sample.

Simultaneous Multiple Regression


Analysis

One of the most important notions in multiple


regression analysis is the notion of statistical
control, that is, mathematical operations to
remove the effects of potentially confounding
or third variables from the relationship
between a predictor or IV and a criterion or
DV. Terms you might hear which refer to this
include
Partialing
Controlling for
Residualizing
Holding constant

Meaning of Regression Weights

In multiple regression when you have multiple predictors of


the same dependent or criterion variable Y the standardized
regression coefficient, or Beta1 expresses the independent
contribution to predicting variable Y of X1 when the effects
of the other variables X2 through Xn are not a factor (have
been statistically controlled for), and similarly for weights
Beta2 through Betan
These regression weights or coefficients can be tested for
statistical significance and it will be possible to state with
95% (or 99%) confidence that the magnitude of the
coefficient differs from zero, and thus that that particular
predictor makes a contribution to predicting the criterion or
dependent variable, Y, that is unrelated to the contribution
of any of the other predictors

Tests of the Predictors

The magnitude of the raw score weights (usually symbolized by b1,


b2, etc) cannot be directly compared since they are associated with
(usually) variables with different units of measurement
It is common practice to compare the standardized regression
weights (the Beta1, Beta 2, etc) and make claims about the relative
importance of the unique contribution of each predictor variable to
predicting the criterion

It is also possible to do tests for the significance of the differences


between two predictors: is one a significantly better predictor than the
other
These coefficients vary from sample to sample so its not prudent to
generalize too much about the relative ability of two predictors to predict
Its also the case that in the context of the regression equation the
variable which is a good predictor is not the original variable, but rather a
residualized version for which the effects of all the other variables have
been held constant. So the magnitude of its contribution is relative to the
other variables, and only holds for this particular combination of variables
included in the predictive equation

How Do we Find the Regression


Weights (Beta Weights)?

Although this is not how SPSS would calculate them,


we can get the Beta weights from the zero-order
(pairwise) correlations between Y and the various
predictor variables X1, X2, etc and the
intercorrelations among the latter
Suppose we want to find the beta weights for an
equation Y = Beta1X1 + Beta2X2
We need three correlations: the correlation between
Y and X1; the correlation between Y and X2, and the
correlation between X1 and X2

How Do we Find the Regression


Weights (Beta Weights)?, contd

Lets suppose we have the following data: r for Y and X1 = .


776; r for Y and X2 is .869; and r for X1 and X 2 is .682.
The formula for predicting the standardized partial regression
weight for X1 with the effects of X2 removed is
* Beta X1Y.X2 = r X1Y (r X2Y)(r X1X2)
1 r 2X 1X 2

Substituting the correlations we already have in the formula,


we find that the beta weight for the predictive effect of
variable X1 on Y is equal to .776 (.869)(.682) / 1 (.682)2
= .342. To compute the second weight, Beta X2Y.X1, we just
switch the first and second terms in the numerator.
Now lets see that in the context of an SPSS-calculated
multiple regression
*Read this as the Beta weight for the regression of Y on X1
when the effects of X2 have been removed

Multiple Regression using SPSS

Suppose we think that the ability of Daily Calorie Intake to


predict Female Life Expectancy is not adequate, and we would
like to achieve a more accurate prediction. One way to do this
is to add additional variables to the equation and conduct a
multiple regression analysis.
Suppose we have a suspicion that literacy rate might also be a
good predictor, not only as a general measure of the state of
the countrys development but also as an indicator of the
likelihood that individuals will have the wherewithal to access
health and medical information. We have no particular reasons
to assume that literacy rate and calorie consumption are
correlated, so we will assume for the moment that they will
have a separate and additive effect on female life expectancy
Lets add literacy rate (People who Read %) as a second
predictor (X2), so now our equation that we are looking for is
Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 where Y = Female Life Expectancy, Daily
Calorie Intake is X1 and Literacy Rate is X2

Multiple Regression using SPSS:


Steps to Set Up the Analysis

Download the World95.sav data


file and open it in SPSS Data
Editor.

In Data Editor go to Analyze/


Regression/ Linear and click Reset
Put Average Female Life
Expectancy into the Dependent box
Put Daily Calorie Intake and People
who Read % into the Independents
box
Under Statistics, select Estimates,
Confidence Intervals, Model Fit,
Descriptives, Part and Partial
Correlation, R Square Change,
Collinearity Diagnostics, and click
Continue
Under Options, check Include
Constant in the Equation, click
Continue and then OK
Compare your output to the next
several slides

Interpreting Your SPSS Multiple


Regression Output

First lets look at the zero-order (pairwise)


correlations between Average Female Life Expectancy
(Y), Daily Calorie Intake (X1) and People who Read
(X2). Note that these are .776 for Y with X1, .869 for
Y with X2, and .682 for X1 with X2
Correlations
Average
female life
expectancy
Pearson Correlation

r YX1
r YX2

Sig. (1-tailed)

Average female life


expectancy
Daily calorie intake
People who read (%)
Average female life
expectancy
Daily calorie intake
People who read (%)
Average female life
expectancy
Daily calorie intake
People who read (%)

Daily calorie
intake

People who
read (%)

1.000

.776

.869

.776
.869

1.000
.682

.682
1.000

.000

.000

.000
.000

.
.000

.000
.

74

74

74

74
74

74
74

74
74

r X1X2

Examining the Regression Weights


Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
People who read (%)
Daily calorie intake

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
25.838
2.882
.315
.034
.007
.001

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.636
.342

t
8.964
9.202
4.949

Sig.
.000
.000
.000

95% Confidence Interval for B


Lower Bound
Upper Bound
20.090
31.585
.247
.383
.004
.010

Zero-order

Correlations
Partial

.869
.776

.738
.506

Part
.465
.250

Collinearity Statistics
Tolerance
VIF
.535
.535

1.868
1.868

a. Dependent Variable: Average female life expectancy

Above are the raw (unstandardized) and standardized regression weights for
the regression of female life expectancy on daily calorie intake and
percentage of people who read. Consistent with our hand calculation, the
standardized regression coefficient (beta weight) for daily caloric intake is .
342. The beta weight for percentage of people who read is much larger, .
636. What this weight means is that for every unit change in percentage of
people who read (that is, for every increase by a factor of one standard
deviation on the people who read variable), Y (female life expectancy) will
increase by a multiple of .636 standard deviations. Note that both the beta
coefficients are significant at p < .001

R, R Square, and the SEE


Model Summary
Change Statistics
Model
1

R
.905a

R Square
.818

Adjusted
R Square
.813

Std. Error of
the Estimate
4.948

R Square
Change
.818

F Change
159.922

df1

df2
2

71

Sig. F Change
.000

a. Predictors: (Constant), People who read (%), Daily calorie intake

Above is the model summary, which has some important


statistics. It gives us R and R square for the regression of
Y (female life expectancy) on the two predictors. R is .
905, which is a very high correlation. R square tells us
what proportion of the variation in female life expectancy
is explained by the two predictors, a very high .818. It
gives us the standard error of estimate, which we can use
to put confidence intervals around the unstandardized
regression coefficients

F Test for the Significance of the


Regression Equation
ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
7829.451
1738.008
9567.459

df
2
71
73

Mean Square
3914.726
24.479

F
159.922

Sig.
.000a

a. Predictors: (Constant), People who read (%), Daily calorie intake


b. Dependent Variable: Average female life expectancy

Next we look at the F test of the significance of the


Regression equation, Y = .342 X1 + .636 X2. Is this so much better a
predictor of female literacy (Y) than simply using the mean of Y that the
difference is statistically significant? The F test is a ratio of the mean square
for the regression equation to the mean square for the residual (the
departures of the actual scores on Y from what the regression equation
predicted). In this case we have a very large value of F, which is significant
at p <.001. Thus it is reasonable to conclude that our regression equation is
a significantly better predictor than the mean of Y.

Confidence Intervals around the


Regression Weights

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Daily calorie intake
People who read (%)

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
25.838
2.882
.007
.001
.315
.034

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.342
.636

t
8.964
4.949
9.202

Sig.
.000
.000
.000

95% Confidence Interval for B


Lower Bound
Upper Bound
20.090
31.585
.004
.010
.247
.383

Zero-order

Correlations
Partial

.776
.869

.506
.738

Part

a. Dependent Variable: Average female life expectancy

Finally, your output provides confidence intervals around the


unstandardized regression coefficients. Thus we can say
with 95% confidence that the unstandardized weight to
apply to daily calorie intake to predict female life expectancy
ranges between .004 and .010, and that the
undstandardized weight to apply to percentage of people
who read ranges between .247 and .383

.250
.465

Multicollinearity

One of the requirements for a mathematical solution to the


multiple regression problem is that the predictors or independent
variables not be highly correlated
If in fact two predictors are perfectly correlated, the analysis
cannot be completed
Multicollinearity (the case in which two or more of the predictors
are too highly correlated) also leads to unstable partial regression
coefficients which wont hold up when applied to a new sample of
cases
Further, if predictors are too highly correlated with each other their
shared variance with the dependent or criterion variable may be
redundant and its hard to tell just using statistical procedures
which variable is producing the effect
Moreover, the regression weights for the predictors would look
much like their zero-order correlations with Y if the predictors are
dependent; if the predictors are highly correlated this may
produce regression weights that dont really reflect the
independent contribution to prediction of each of the predictors

Multicollinearity, contd

As a rule of thumb, bivariate zero-order correlations between


predictors should not exceed .80

Also, no predictor should be totally accounted for by a combination


of the other predictors

This is easy to prevent; run complete analysis of all possible pairs of


predictors using the correlation procedure

Look at tolerance levels. Tolerance for a predictor variable is equal to


1-R2 for an equation where one of the predictors is regressed on all of
the other predictors. If the predictor is highly correlated with (explained
by) the combination of the other predictors, it will have a low tolerance,
approaching zero, because the R2 will be large
So, zero tolerance = BAD, near 1 tolerance = GOOD in terms of
independence of a predictor

The best prediction occurs when the predictors are


moderately independent of each other, but each is highly
correlated with the dependent (criterion) variable Y
Some interpretive problems resulting from multicollinearity can be
resolved using path analysis (see Chapter 3 in Grimm and Yarnold)

Multicollinearity Issues in our


Current SPSS Problem

From our SPSS output we note that the correlation between our two predictors,
Daily Calorie Intake (X1) and People who Read (X2) is .682. This is a pretty high
correlation for two predictors to be interpreted independently: it means each
explains about half the variation in the other. If you look at the zero order
correlation of our Y variable, average life expectancy with % people who read,
you note that the correlation is quite high, .869. However, the value of r for the
two variable combination was .905, which is an improvement.
Correlations
Average
female life
expectancy
Pearson Correlation

r YX1
r YX2

Sig. (1-tailed)

Average female life


expectancy
Daily calorie intake
People who read (%)
Average female life
expectancy
Daily calorie intake
People who read (%)
Average female life
expectancy
Daily calorie intake
People who read (%)

Daily calorie
intake

People who
read (%)

1.000

.776

.869

.776
.869

1.000
.682

.682
1.000

.000

.000

.000
.000

.
.000

.000
.

74

74

74

74
74

74
74

74
74

r X1X2

Multicollinearity Issues in our


Current SPSS Problem, contd

The table below is excerpted from the more complete table on Slide 32. Look
at the tolerance value. Recall that zero tolerance means very high
multicollinearity (high intercorrelation among the predictors, which is bad).
Tolerance is .535 for both variables (since there are only two, the value is the
same for either one predicting the other)

VIF (variance inflation factor) is a completely redundant statistic with


tolerance (it is 1/tolerance). The higher it is, the greater the multicollinearity.
When there is no multicollinearity the value of VIF equals 1. Multicollinearity
problems have to be dealt with (by getting rid of redundant predictor
variables or other means) if VIF approaches 10 (that means that only about
10% of the variance in the predictor in question is not explained by the
combination of the other predictors)

In the case of our two


predictors, there is some
indication of multicollinearity
but not enough to throw out
one of the variables

Specification Errors

One type of specification error is that the relationship among the


variables that you are looking at is not linear (e.g., you know that
Y peaks at high and low levels of one or more predictors (a
curvilinear relationship) but you are using linear regression
anyhow. There are options for nonlinear regression available that
should be used in such a case
Another type of specification error occurs when you have either
underspecified or overspecified the model by (a) failing to include
all relevant predictors (for example including weight but not height
in an equation for predicting obesity or (b) including predictors
which are not relevant. Most irrelevant predictors will not even
show up in the final regression equation unless you insist on it, but
they can affect the results if they are correlated with at least some
of the other predictors
For proper specification nothing beats a good theory (as opposed
to launching a fishing expedition)

Types of Multiple Regression


Analysis

So far we have looked at a standard or simultaneous multiple regression


analysis where all of the predictor variables were entered at the same
time, that is, considered in combination with each other simultaneously
But there are other types of multiple regression analyses which can yield
some interesting results
Hierarchical regression analysis refers to the method of regression in
which not all of the variables are entered simultaneously but rather one at
a time or a few at a time, and at each step the correlation of Y, the
criterion variable, with the current set of predictors is calculated and
evaluated. At each stage the R square that is calculated shows the
incremental change in variance accounted for in Y with the addition of the
most recently entered predictor, and that is exclusively associated with
that predictor.
Tests can be done to determine the significance of the change in R square
at each step to see if each newly added predictor makes a significant
improvement in the predictive power of the regression equation
The order in which variables are entered makes a difference to the
outcome. The researcher determines the order on theoretical grounds
(exception is stepwise analysis)

Stepwise Multiple Regression

Stepwise multiple regression is a variant of hierarchical


regression where the order of entry is determined not by
the researcher but on empirical criteria
In the forward inclusion version of stepwise regression the
order of entry is determined at each step by calculating
which variable will produce the greatest increase in R
square (the amount of variance in the dependent variable Y
accounted for) at that step
In the backward elimination version of stepwise multiple
regression the analysis starts off with all of the predictors at
the first step and then eliminates them so that each
successive step has fewer predictors in the equation.
Elimination is based on an empirical criterion that is the
reverse of that for forward inclusion (the variable that
produces the smallest decline in R square is removed at
each step)

Reducing the Overall Level of Type


I Error

One of the problems with doing multiple regression is that there


are a lot of significance tests being conducted simultaneously, but
for all practical purposes each test is treated as an independent
one even though the data are related. When a large number of
tests are done, theoretically the likelihood of Type I error increases
(failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is in fact true)
This is particularly problematic in stepwise regression with the
iterative process of assessing significance of R square over and
over again not to speak of the significance of individual regression
coefficients
Therefore it is desirable to do something to reduce the increased
chance of making Type I errors (finding significant results that
arent there) such as keeping the number of predictors to a
minimum to reduce the number of times you go to the normal
table to obtain a significance level, or dividing the usual required
confidence level by the number of predictors, or keeping the
intercorrelation of the predictors as low as possible (avoiding use
of redundant predictors, which would cause you to basically test
the significance of the same relationship to Y over and over)

Reducing the Overall Level of Type


I Error, contd

This may be of particular importance when the


researcher is testing a theory which has a network of
interlocking claims such that the invalidation of one of
them brings the whole thing tumbling down

An issue of HCR (July 2003) devoted several papers to


exploring this question

As mentioned in class before, the Bonferroni procedure


is sometimes used, but its hard to swallow, as you have
to divide the usual confidence level of .05 by the number
of tests you expect to perform, so if you are conducting
thirty tests, you have to set your alpha level at .05/30 or
.0017 for each test. With stepwise regression its not
clear in advance how many tests you will have to
perform although you can estimate it by the number of
predictor variables you intend to start off with