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CLIMATE CHANGE AND

INDIAS ENERGY POLICY


DR. ANSHU BHARADWAJ
CENTER FOR STUDY OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & POLICY,
BANGALORE

ASIAN CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY : TRENDS AND POLICY


JULY 22, 2011

INDIAS PRIMARY ENERGY


CONSUMPTION :
A SNAPSHOT

In 2010 alone, Indias primary energy


consumption grew by 9.2%
CSTEP July 2011
Source : BP statistical review of world energy, 2011; CSTEP

INDIA'S ENERGY
ASPIRATIONS

Annual GDP growth projection : 8 9%


Elasticity of electricity : GDP ~ 0.95
Net electricity generation required in 2020 : 1850 billion units
per capita electricity consumption in 2020 : ~ 1200 kWh
Still, well below world average of 2800 kWh
India has announced intent to reduce CO2 intensity: GDP by
20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020
Multiple objectives for Indian energy policy
Access for all
Reliability
Low cost
Low carbon
Energy Security
CSTEP July 2011

ELECTRIC POWER

Current Capacity : 173,855 MW (utility)


5th largest in the world

Low per capita electricity consumption

India
US
China
World

717 kWh
14,000 kWh
2500 kWh
2800 kWh

Peak shortage
~ 15%
800,000 MW in 2030 40
~ 25,000 MW per year

Environmental concerns
India 3rd largest emitter of CO2 behind China and US
38% of emissions from power sector

Energy security concerns


67% power from coal-based thermal plants - need to depend on imports
Prototype breeder reactors to exploit thorium reserves
CSTEP July 2011

ENVIRONMENTAL
CONCERNS :
GHG EMISSIONS IN INDIA
(2007)

CSTEP July 2011

ENERGY RESOURCE
AVAILABILITY IN INDIA
Sourc
e

Capital
cost
(crores/MW
)

Emissions
(t CO2eq/Mwh)

Reserves

Longevity

Coal

4-5

1.1

10 5820 MT

70 years

Oil

2.5

0.62

1200 MT

~ 10 years

Gas

3.5

0.47

1.5 TCM

~ 20 years

Hydro

6- 20 (Site
and size
dependant)

148.7 GW

NA

Nuclea
r

8-13

70,000 tonnes of
Uranium
~ 200 tonnes of
Pu

40 years with
Uranium

Source : BP statistical review report


NHPC,NTPC
CSTEP July 2011

ENERGY SECURITY
CONCERNS

Source : Telegraph, FT

CSTEP July 2011

PROJECTED FUEL MIX IN


2020

Required capacity in 2020 assuming 8% growth = 387,280 MW in


BAU scenario

CSTEP July 2011

Source : Interim report, Planning

HOW TO GROW AND BE


SUSTAINABLE?

How do we grow to ~ 2,000 billion kWh by 2020


How do we get 3,00 billion kWh of low-carbon
power?
What fuel options & technologies?

Wind
Nuclear,
Solar
Hydro
Bio-fuels
Carbon Sequestration
Hydrogen & fuel cells
Hybrid cars

Investments, research, policies?


CSTEP July 2011

WIND POWER

Power proportional to V 3

India - 5th in wind capacity

Cost of generation reasonable: ~ Rs


3 per kWh
Economics sensitive to wind speeds

World total installed 194,000 MW


India:
Potential: 50,000 MW based on hub
height of 50 m and 2% land usage
Recent studies offer reassessed
potential at 80m 6-7% land usage

Onshore - 676, 000 MW


Offshore - 214,000 MW

Intermittent; grid stability is a


concern

CSTEP July 2011

China

44, 733 MW

US

40,180 MW

Germany

27,215 MW

Spain

20,676 MW

India

13,000 MW

SOLAR POWER

JNNSM launched in 2010 targets 22,000 MW by 2022


Phase 1 ( until March 2013)
Target of 1300 MW : 800 MW PV and 500 MW CSP
25 years of guaranteed feed in tariff
Off-grid PV
Target of 2000 MW by 2022
Rural applications where grid is unviable or unreachable
Challenges
High nominal cost of generation : ~ Rs 15 per kWh
Water scarcity issues for CSP
Requirement of skilled personnel

CSTEP July 2011

NUCLEAR POWER

Installed Capacity 4780 MW


Generation ~ 23 Billion kWh
(2.5 % of total)

Domestic Uranium reserves


Poor quality ore

~ 61,000 Tons

(0.01% - 0.05% Uranium)

Large Thorium deposits


But, Thorium is fertile and has to be converted to fissile U233 in a reactor

Phase Nuclear Program


Phase I
Phase II
Phase III

Build Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors using domestic Uranium


Reprocess spent fuel from Phase I to get Plutonium for Breeder Reactors
Use U233 (obtained from Thorium) and use it with Plutonium

Domestic Uranium reserves can sustain 10,000 MW PHWR for 40 years


Low capacity factors due to Uranium mining constraints
CSTEP July 2011

INDIAN NUCLEAR POWER


PROGRAM
Type

Operati Projection Projection


ng
s (2020)
s (2030)
10,000 MW

10,000 MW

Light Water 320 MW


Reactors

9,300 MW

22,000 MW

Fast
Breeder
Reactors

1,500 MW

1,500 MW

Heavy
Water
Reactors

Total

4,460
MW

4780
MW

20,800 MW 33,500 MW

Nuclear capacity presently under construction : 5300 MW

CSTEP June 2011

ELECTRICITY GENERATION
COSTS : COMPARISON

CSTEP July 2011

CSTEP & NPCIL

Source : LBNL, CERC ,

DEMAND-SIDE MEASURES :
SMART GRIDS

Indian Institute of Science & CSTEP


Smart grid test bed in IISc campus
Consortium of technology provider companies

Ministry of Power (under R-APDRP)

BIOFUEL POTENTIAL
Indias total land area 328 million hectares (mha)

Cultivated
142 mha
Cultivable wasteland
30 mha
Rice
40 mha
Wheat 26 mha

Hazardous to divert agricultural area for bio-fuels.


If entire wasteland used for growing bio-fuels,
Produce about 30 million tons of bio-oil
10% of oil demand by 2031.

Advisable to cultivate on such a large area?


CSTEP July 2011

ETHANOL OPPORTUNITIES
Increase yield of sugarcane using drip irrigation &
fertigation
Present average yield ~ 80 tons per ha
Using drip irrigation & fertigation
150 tons per ha

Sweet sorghum:
Less water intensive than sugarcane
Two crops a year

Cellulosic ethanol from agro-forest residues such as


bagasse, rice husk, wood chips, crop residues.
Technology needs to be developed
CSTEP July 2011

WHAT CAN 1 HECTARE DO?


Option 1
Sugarcane

Option 2
Corn
Ethanol

Sugarcane:
80 tons

Corn Yield:
2000 to
7500 Kg per 3000 Trees
hectare
per hectare

No Sugar
Cane juice
used to
make
ethanol.

Ethanol:
0.37 Liter
per kg

Seed yield:
1 to 2 Kg
per tree

2800 Liter
per hectare

Oil Yield:
1 to 1.5 Ton
per hectare

Ethanol:
6000 Liter
per hectare

Option 3
Jatropha

CSTEP July 2011

Option 4
Sweet
Sorghum

Option 5
Solar

Stalk yield:
Bio-Fuels
35 50
tons
use solar
per hectare

Average
indirectly
daily
energy
radiation:
5- 6 kWh/m2
Why not do
it days of
250
Juice directly? sunshine
Extraction
Solar
45 50%
50% area
covered by
PV panels
Ethanol:
2500 to
3500 Liters
per hectare

10%
Efficiency of
solar cells

LAND REQUIRED(HA/1000
MW)

Source : NPCIL & CSTEP


CSTEP July 2011

POTENTIAL R&D DOMAINS

New and affordable materials for photovoltaic


Clean coal technologies; carbon capture and
sequestration
Low-speed wind power
Cellulosic ethanol
Efficient and affordable hybrids, electric vehicles
Energy storage efficient batteries and condenser
Demand side management of power
Trained human resource
CSTEP July 2011